MLB training camps are scheduled to open in mid-February. The division winners, AL and NL winners and World Series odds are available. If you are looking for a team to root for throughout the season a futures wager may be something to look at. The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a World Series loss in Game 7. They were the best team in the American League last season. They won 94 games. Toronto has done a lot to upgrade their roster during the off- season and they may not be finished acquiring elite talent. The Blue Jays signed starting pitcher Dylan Cease to a big contract making their starting pitching rotation one of the best in the American League. In addition to Cease Toronto has former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and elite prospect Trey Yesavage in their rotation. They also have Eric Lauer and Bowden Francis as depth starters. Toronto signed reliever Tyler Rogers during the off-season in order to improve a bullpen that struggled at times last...

What Is Contrarian Betting? Contrarian betting is a disciplined wagering approach that involves betting against the public, rather than following the most popular side or total. At its core, the strategy is rooted in how sportsbooks actually operate. Oddsmakers do not post lines as predictions of the final score. Instead, lines are designed to attract balanced action on both sides. To achieve that balance, sportsbooks routinely shade lines toward public biases—most notably favorites and overs. Betting percentages, particularly the percentage of tickets, reveal where the public is leaning. Contrarian bettors look for opportunities where the market has been skewed by that bias and value emerges on the less popular side. How to Calculate Contrarian Betting Contrarian betting is most effective when it is calculated correctly. A few principles are essential: Percentage of Bets Over Percentage of Money The most useful data point is percentage of bets, not percentage of...

If you’re a sports bettor—whether you're just starting out or have been in the game for years—understanding the nuances of betting lines can feel like deciphering a foreign language. When I first entered the world of sports betting, I quickly learned that the lines set by oddsmakers are not just numbers on a screen; they are messages waiting to be decoded. Here's a journey through some key insights that have shaped my betting strategies and could enhance yours too. The Dutchman’s Wisdom: Linesmakers Are Telling You Something One of the first lessons I learned was from a seasoned bettor referred to as “The Dutchman.” He often said, “Linesmakers are telling you something.” This phrase stuck with me because it highlights an essential truth: oddsmakers aren’t merely setting lines based on team statistics or public opinion; they’re crafting them to predict and influence betting behavior. The Trap of the Underdog A classic example is when a seemingly inferior team is...

When it comes to sports betting, particularly in the NFL, many gamblers fall prey to the allure of simplistic reasoning. One common misconception is believing that if you can pick the outright winner of a game, you're likely to have picked the winner against the spread as well. This notion is often touted alongside statistics suggesting that the outright winner covers the spread about 80% of the time. However, this logic is fundamentally flawed. Understanding the Spread In betting, when an underdog wins outright, they cover the spread 100% of the time. Conversely, a favorite cannot cover the spread unless they win the game outright. The only situation where a team wins yet fails to cover is when the favorite wins but by a margin smaller than the spread. For example, if a team is favored by 3.5 points, the only way they can win but not cover is if they win by one, two, or three points. So, the belief that picking the straight-up (SU) winner easily translates to a spread win is...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Florida Atlantic 53, UAB 33 Florida Atlantic forced a three and out to open the game and went 64 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead which was the first of four touchdowns in four possessions and the Trent Dilfer tenure was done before halftime. The Blazers punted on their first four possessions and the game was done two minutes into the second quarter. The Owls outgained UAB 482-329 and 7.4 to 4.8 despite going just 3-10 on third down but were helped out by the Blazers committing 15 penalties for 128 yards.  Coastal Carolina 23, ULM 8 Coastal Carolina went 120 yards in its first two possessions but had to settle for a pair of field goals and it was a very inefficient first half before finding the endzone right before halftime for take a 16-0 lead into the break. The Warhawks punted on all six first half possessions...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. James Madison 24, Louisiana 14 After a scoreless first quarter, Louisiana struck first with a six-play, 80-yard touchdown drive and then recovered a fumble two plays later but could not take advantage as it had a 51-yard field goal blocked. James Madison turned that into a touchdown but the Cajuns went 75 yards in three plays to take a 14-7 halftime lead. The Dukes scored on the first play of the second half and the defense clamped down. James Madison outgained Louisiana 477-288 and 5.9 to 5.1 yppl. Ole Miss 24, Washington State 21 Mississippi was caught in an unexpected dogfight as Washington St. hit the scoreboard first late in the first quarter to take a 7-0 lead and the Rebels did not get into the endzone until 31 seconds remaining in the second quarter. The Cougars took the opening second half kickoff and went 75...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Missouri State 22, Middle Tennessee 20 This was a back and forth game throughout that ended up coming down to the kicking game. Missouri St. took a two-point lead with 4:45 remaining and the Blue Raiders followed by driving 44 yards to set up a possible game winning field goal with under a minute left but the 52-yard attempt was no good. The yardages were nearly dead even at 353-348 as were the yppl averages at 5.2 to 5.3 but the Bears had the edge in the redzone at 5-5 with Middle Tennessee going 1-1. Liberty 19, UTEP 8 Liberty snapped a four-game losing streak but it was not the most dominating victory. The Flames defense did its job as it held UTEP to 167 yards and nine first downs with 65 of those yards coming on its touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Liberty did gain 403 yards on offense but it had the ball for...

Last night, October 2, the San Francisco 49ers, which was my top-rated 7-Unit best bet, were priced as 8.5-point underdogs and won the game outright over their divisional rival LA Rams. I had recommended a sprinkle of not more than 2 units on the money line too and it worked out very well and as planned.  In 2024, 272 games were played during the regular season with 27 or 10% of them involved a dog of 8.5 points. Just three or 1.1% of those dogs won the game.  In 2023, there 272 regular season games played with 42 of them or 15.4% involved underdogs of 8.5 or more points and just four or 1.5% of all games played won the game.   In 2022, 272 games were played during the regular season with 43 or 15/8% of them involved a dog of 8.5 points. Just five or 1.8% of those dogs won the game.  Since 1989, there have been 9,081 regular season games played and 1,678 or 18.4% of them involved a dog of 8.5 or more points. Only 291 or 3.2% of those 8.5 or...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Old Dominion 21, Liberty 7 The first half could not have gone worse for Liberty as a promising 54-yard kickoff return to open the game resulted in a missed field goal and the other five possessions not counting the end of the half drive consisted of three punts, a fumble and an interception while gaining 36 yards total. Old Dominion had turnovers in two of its first three possessions but then scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives and that is all it needed. The Monarchs won the yards 489-210 and 6.9 to 3.8 yppl. Kennesaw State 24, Middle Tennessee 16 Middle Tennessee fumbled on the second play of the game, the Owls scored three plays later, forced a punt and went 87 yards for another touchdown and eventually built a 21-3 at the end of the first quarter. The Blue Raiders got it to 21-16 early in the fourth quarter and...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. ULM 28, Arkansas State 16 Arkansas St. opened the game by intercepting a pass three plays in and returned it 32 yards for a touchdown then added on a field goal for a 10-0 lead after the first quarter. After the pick and five straight punts, UL Monroe finally got the offense going with a pair of touchdowns and never gave up the lead. The Red Wolves could only get two more field goals as the offense missed a field goal and turned it over three times. The Warhawks won the yardage 384-297 on 16 fewer plays. Texas A&M 16, Auburn 10 Texas A&M outgained the Tigers 414-177 and 6.0 to 3.1 yppl but the Aggies offense stalled numerous times and were forced to five field goal attempts, missing two of those while also throwing a redzone interception. Additionally, Texas A&M was 3-14 on third down so it relied on the...