Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. East Carolina 28, Army 6 East Carolina scored touchdowns on each of its first three possessions amassing 216 yards in the first quarter and was never threatened. The Pirates outgained Army 431-290 and the Black Knights were hurt by turning it over on downs and fumbling inside the East Carolina 30-yard line on their second and third possessions. The Pirates did struggle after that first quarter as they went through a stretch of four straight possessions that resulted in an interception, a fumble and a pair of fourth down misses. Virginia 46, Florida State 38 Virginia punted on its first two possessions but then jumped ahead 14-0 after forcing a pair of turnovers and converting both into touchdowns. The Seminoles responded with three straight touchdowns, the second and third following Cavaliers interceptions. It was back...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Marshall 42, Middle Tennessee 28 After a punt and an interception in the first five plays of the game, Marshall and Middle Tennessee erupted for five straight touchdowns with the Thundering Herd taking a 21-14 lead into the second quarter. The Blue Raiders then ran off 14 straight points to take the lead but Marshall took over with a 21-0 fourth quarter. The Blue Raiders were outgained by 73 yards but ran 23 fewer plays and outgained Marshall 7.8 to 6.3 yppl but had 12 penalties for 111 yards and were 3-11 on third and fourth down. Louisiana Tech 30, Southern Miss 20 Southern Mississippi went three and out to open the game and Louisiana Tech scored two plays later for a 7-0 lead. The Golden Eagles responded with a four-play touchdown drive and after trading field goals, the Bulldogs regained their touchdown lead and then...

Every sports bettor knows Against the Spread (ATS) records matter, but to really uncover betting value you have to dig into the Margin of Cover (ATS +/-). This number shows not just if a team covered, but by how much they beat or missed the line. So far in the 2025 season, here are the programs that have been printing money for bettors—and the ones burning bankrolls. Best Teams to Bet On (Top Margin of Cover) These are the schools smashing expectations, consistently outperforming the number. Florida State: 3-0 ATS, +22.7 MoC Old Dominion: 3-0 ATS, +20.5 MoC Vanderbilt: 4-0 ATS, +19.9 MoC Indiana: 3-1 ATS, +18.1 MoC Louisiana Tech: 4-0 ATS, +15.4 MoC North Texas: 3-1 ATS, +15.4 MoC Utah State: 4-0 ATS, +15.0 MoC BYU: 3-0 ATS, +14.5 MoC Arizona: 3-0 ATS, +13.3 MoC Oregon: 3-1 ATS, +12.3 MoC These teams aren’t just winning—they’re winning comfortably against the number. Backing them has meant lower sweat, higher profit, and strong return on...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Florida State 66, Kent State 10 This was not expected to be a game and it certainly turned out that way. Florida St. racked up 775 yards of offense and 11.5 yppl and failed to convert only one third down in 10 attempts. The Seminoles scored on 10 of 12 possessions, throwing an interception to open the second half and turning it over on fourth down on their last drive. Kent St. scored its lone touchdown on a 75-yard pass and had only 131 yards besides that with 54 yards coming in garbage time on its field goal drive. James Madison 31, Liberty 13 Liberty took a 10-3 lead in the second quarter and after a 10-10 halftime, the Flames retook the lead at 13-10 and then James Madison took over with a 21-0 run to close the game. In the second half, the Dukes scored on three of four possessions on long drives while the defense...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Rice 28, Charlotte 17 Charlotte had four scoring drives in the first half but all resulted in field goal attempts with three of those being made. The 49ers had a 9-7 lead but Rice went 75 yards in just over one minute to take a 14-point lead at halftime and then pulled away with a pair of touchdowns in the second half before Charlotte tacked on a late meaningless touchdown. Rice only outgained Charlotte 353-334 but ran 18 fewer plays and outgained them 6.1 to 4.4 yppl while the Owls had six sacks to the 49ers zero. Tulsa 19, Oklahoma State 12 Oklahoma St. struck first with a field goal on the first possession of the game but then Tulsa ran off 19 unanswered points heading into the fourth quarter. The Cowboys cut the lead to 10 points early in the fourth quarter and while they then forced three straight punts after that,...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. Iowa 47, UMass 7 Iowa scored its most points since it put up 51 points against Maryland in 2021 as it put up 20 points in the first quarter and never looked back. After three and outs on its first three possessions, UMass blocked a punt and got it down to the Iowa 21-yard line and scored four plays later and that was it as the Hawkeyes put up 27 unanswered points after that. They outgained the Minutemen 435-119 while going 10-16 on third down with the defense not allowing a third down conversion in 12 tries. Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40 It was another tough loss for Notre Dame as a muffed snap on an extra point proved costly. Notre Dame struck first with a blocked punt for a touchdown but Texas A&M responded with an 86-yard touchdown pass. The first half closed with two Aggies scores as they took their first lead...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. West Virginia 31, Pitt 24 The Backyard Brawl did not disappoint as a pretty uneventful first half turned into a second half shootout with West Virginia coming back from 10 points down late in the fourth quarter and scoring the game-tying touchdown with 11 seconds remaining. The Mountaineers converted a fourth and one in overtime and punched it in two plays later and then stopped Pittsburgh on a fourth and 20. Both teams averaged 4.8 yppl and the Panthers were hurt by 14 penalties for 118 yards. USC 33, Purdue 17 USC took a 17-3 lead into halftime and had to settle for a field goal in its first second half possession while Purdue cut it to a two-possession game on its next possession before the Trojans scored the next 10 points to pull away. USC outgained the Boilermakers 460-357 as Purdue was guilty of throwing three...

Tracking Margin of Cover (ATS +/-) shows not only who’s covering but by how much. Through two weeks of the NFL season, here are the standouts and the fades: Best NFL ATS Margin of Cover Teams These teams are outperforming the market and padding bettors’ bankrolls: Indianapolis Colts: 2-0 ATS, +13.0 MoC, winning by double digits with ease. Green Bay Packers: 2-0 ATS, +9.5 MoC, underrated despite hot start. LA Chargers: 2-0 ATS, +8.3 MoC, strong balance between offense and defense. Buffalo Bills: 2-0 ATS, +8.3 MoC, blowing past expectations on both sides of the ball. Seattle Seahawks: 1-1 ATS, +7.8 MoC, dangerous when undervalued. Atlanta Falcons: 1-1 ATS, +7.5 MoC, quietly rewarding bettors. Detroit Lions: 1-1 ATS, +6.0 MoC, living up to sharp expectations. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-1 ATS, +5.5 MoC, better than record suggests. LA Rams: 2-0 ATS, +5.3 MoC, exceeding preseason doubts. Worst NFL ATS Margin of Cover Teams On the other end, these franchises are...

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend. NC State 34, Wake Forest 24 Wake Forest returned the opening kickoff of the game for a touchdown and jumped ahead 14-0 after one quarter and had a 10-point lead late in the second quarter but NC State outscored the Demon Deacons 20-0 the rest of the way. The Wolfpack scored its second touchdown on an interception return, one of two forced turnovers. NC State outgained Wake Forest 406-311 and doubled the Demon Deacons up on first downs 24-12 while winning the time of possession by nearly 17 minutes. Houston 36, Colorado 20 Houston outgained Colorado 431-300 and the score could have been a lot worse but the Cougars had to settle for six field goal attempts, converting five of those and ended up punting only once the entire game. The Cougars won the time of possession by over 13 minutes and ran 19 more plays and averaged...

Sports betting isn’t just about instincts. The sharpest bettors rely on systems, models, and situational angles that have stood the test of time. Below are several proven strategies currently in play, including rushing yard regression, weather-driven totals, and spread margin performance. Hot Models Rushing Yardage RegressionWhen a team rushes for 350 or more yards the previous week, games historically go under the total at a rate of 574-453-31. Florida State vs. Kent State UNDER 55.5 Michigan vs. Nebraska UNDER 44.5 Central Florida vs. North Carolina UNDER 49.5 Missouri vs. South Carolina UNDER 46.5 Virginia vs. Stanford UNDER 48.5 Louisiana Tech vs. Southern Miss UNDER 51.5 At 400+ rushing yards, the under improves further to 258-190-15. Big Conference Underdogs, Low TotalsUnderdogs of +7 or more in conference games with totals of 48 or less are 703-599-33 against the spread. South Carolina +13.5 vs. Missouri Maryland +8.5 vs. Wisconsin Lower-Ranked...