ASA NHL Top Picks Archive

#8 ASA TOP PLAY ON Winnipeg Jets -125 over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Though he did have some struggles on the road in this post-season, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has had some big games at home in this post-season which has helped lead the Jets to a 5-1 home record in these playoffs.  Hellebuyck's last start here was a 4-0 shutout win for the Jets and this was reminiscent of how he was virtually a brick wall at home for much of this past regular season.  In the regular season he posted an exceptional 27-3-3 record at home, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts!  Now, coming off another shutout at home in his most recent start here in Winnipeg, we are banking on another strong performance from Hellebuyck to help lead the way to another big home win for the Jets as they look to extend this series to a Game 6 in Dallas.  The Jets Hellebuyck is 5-1 with a sizzling 1.99 GAA and a .902 save percentage at home in this post-season.  The Stars have not scored as well on the road in this post-season.  Other than 1 big offensive game at Colorado (but a 7-4 loss), Dallas has only scored an average of 1 goal per game in regulation time of their other 4 road games in this post-season!  Winnipeg has scored an average of 3.5 goals in regulation time of their 6 home ice games in the post-season.  We also like the fact that the Jets have NOT been outshot in any of the games in this series.  One saw equal shots at 26 apiece and the other 3 games have seen Winnipeg lead shots in goal by an aggregate of 88 to 69 shots!  Lastly, there is also a nice angle we like here and that is that the last 7 times the Jets were on home ice and coming off a loss, they have won the game all 7 times!  They rally the troops one more time here in this one and get another big win at home in Winnipeg!  Lay the money line for a top play on the Jets Thursday.

ASA NHL play on Toronto Maple Leafs +125 vs. Florida Panthers, 7pm ET - The home team has won all four games and we see no reason for that trend to change now. Leaf’s netminder Joseph Woll will be in goal again tonight after an 0-2 loss in Game 3, but Woll had a .946 save percentage with 35 saves on 37 attempts. We like Toronto to rebound off that shutout loss considering they had 13 goals in the first three games of this series. The Leaf’s are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games and were 31-15 at home this season. Florida was 23-23 on the road this season, 16-16 as a road chalk, Toronto has been a home moneyline dog just 10 times this season, winning seven of those contests. Back the home team here.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -140 vs. Winnipeg Jets, 4:30pm ET - Dallas has been one of the best home teams in the NHL this season with a 32-11-3 record. 21 of the Stars home wins in the regular season came by 2 or more goals. Jets goaltender Hellebuyck has had his struggles on the road in the playoffs allowing 5, 5, 6 AND 5-goals so if the Stars get one early, he could have a mental meltdown and allow a big number in Dallas today. Hellebuyck just allowed 5 goals to the Stars on this ice in the last game on 26 shots for an .808 save percentage. Netminder Jake Oettinger is 4-1 at home in the playoffs with a .913 save percentage. In the last game versus the Jets he allowed just 2 goals on 26 shots for a .923 SV%. We like the Stars to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series.

ASA NHL play on Vegas Knights +105 vs Edmonton Oilers, 9:30PM ET - Vegas put an end to the Oilers 6-game winning streak with a last second, or last half-second goal for a 4-3 win in Game 3 of this series. Trailing 1-2 in this series we like the Knights to even it up tonight in Game 4, especially with the Oilers missing goaltender Calvin Pickard again for this one. That means the Oilers are forced to start Stuart Skinner again who has given up 4, 5 and 6 goals in his last three starts. He is allowing 3.1 goals per game in his last ten starts with a .866 save percentage. Skinner is 1-3 against Las Vegas this season. Vegas is 37-22 with Adin Hill in net this season and clearly has an edge in that department for this game. Take the live dog in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -120 vs. Las Vegas Knights, 9pm ET - I’m going to keep this analysis shorter than normal today and essentially say…bet the red hot streak with Edmonton who has won 6 straight games. The Oilers have outshot Las Vegas 65-49 in the first two games of this series and have put a ton of pressure on the Knights goaltender Hill who has allowed 9 goals. Las Vegas is a solid road team, but Edmonton is 28-13-3 on their home ice, 3-0 in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this one and back the Oilers.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets -125 vs. Dallas Stars, 9:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Jets are in a must win situation here and we trust them at home with their 34-8-4 record, at Canada Life Centre. The Jets have won 3 of five meetings with Dallas this season with two of those wins coming in dominating fashion 4-1 at home. Winnipeg’s has been outstanding at home, with a 9-2 record and a +12 goal differential in their last 11 home games. Connor Hellebuyck, boasting a .921 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA, has been a wall at home, stopping 30 of 32 shots in Game 1 despite the 3-2 loss. The Jets’ offense, led by Kyle Connor (8 points in his last 4 games), averages 3.4 goals per game against Dallas, while their league-leading 67 goals through 15 games highlight their scoring depth. We like Winnipeg to even this series 1-1 tonight.

ASA NHL Under 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights (May 8, 2025) - Last Game (May 6, 2025): Edmonton won 4-2, but Edmonton’s two late third-period goals and an empty-netter inflated the score. Shots were low (Edmonton: 28, Vegas: 17), suggesting limited scoring chances. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Oilers have been a strong road Under team all season long with a 19-26 record, the Knights at home are Under in 24 of 45 at home this season. When Pickard (Oilers) and Hill (Knights) have started in goal this season they are a combined 43-49-1 Under on the season. Both teams ranked top 10 in Shots on Goal allowed this season and will solid goaltending tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to7 or more total goals.

ASA NHL Dallas Stars -105 vs. Winnipeg Jets – 9:30pm ET May 7, 2025 - The Stars are riding momentum from a Game 7 upset over Colorado, led by Mikko Rantanen’s third-period hat trick (five goals, seven assists in Round 1). Jake Oettinger (2.85 GAA, .911 save percentage) outshines Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (3.85 GAA, .830 save percentage), who struggled in Round 1. Dallas’ depth (21 goals in seven games) and 22% power play exploit Winnipeg’s defensive lapses (27 goals allowed). Despite Winnipeg’s home strength, the Stars’ form makes them the better bet.

ASAwins NHL Washington Capitals (+123) vs. Carolina Hurricanes – 7pm ET May 6, 2025 - The Washington Capitals face the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series at Capital One Arena. As the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals are riding high after defeating the Montreal Canadiens in five games in Round 1. The Hurricanes, the No. 2 seed in the Metropolitan Division, advanced past the New Jersey Devils but face a tough challenge on the road against a Washington team that thrives at home. The Capitals posted a 26-9-8 record at home during the regular season. Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson was a brick wall at home in Round 1, stopping 86 of 90 shots for a .956 save percentage across three games. He allowed two goals or fewer in each contest, including a 33-save effort in Game 1 and a 25-save performance in Game 2, where he shut down Montreal’s third-period push. Thompson’s 4.7 goals saved above expected in the series highlight his elite play, which is crucial against Carolina’s high-octane offense (3.8 goals per game in their last 10 regular-season games). Alex Ovechkin remains Washington’s offensive cornerstone, particularly at home. He scored in both regular-season games against Carolina this year and has three goals in his last three games against them. In Round 1, Ovechkin netted two goals in Game 1, including the overtime winner, and averaged 3.68 shots on goal per game during the regular season. Washington’s defense was stellar in Round 1, allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances (24) of any team. Their expected goals against rate was under 44% in five-on-five play, showcasing a structure that can neutralize Carolina’s puck-possession game. While Carolina’s penalty kill was perfect in Round 1, Washington’s power play, powered by Ovechkin, scored three times against Montreal and could capitalize on any Hurricanes infractions. The Hurricanes struggled on the road during the regular season, posting a 16-24-1 record in their last regular season away games. Carolina’s goaltending is also uncertain, with Frederik Andersen’s status unclear after an injury in Round 1. If backup Pyotr Kochetkov starts, his .884 save percentage against Washington this season could be exploited. This a great spot to ‘capitalize’ on a live home underdog!

ASA NHL St. Louis Blues -115 vs. Winnipeg Jets 8pm ET - In Game 6, the St. Louis Blues are primed to defeat the Winnipeg Jets and force a Game 7. The Blues dominated both home games, outscoring the Jets 12-3, and now face a Jets team missing captain Mark Scheifele, injured in Game 5. Scheifele’s absence (4 goals, 2 assists in playoffs) weakens Winnipeg’s offense. Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, with a 10-4-1 record, .909 save percentage, and 2.26 GAA over his last 15 starts, has been stellar, allowing just 3 goals on 42 shots in Games 3 and 4. Back the Blues to extend the series.

ASA NHL play on Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) vs. Florida Panthers , 7:30pm ET Game 5 - The Tampa Bay Lightning face the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference First Round series, with the Panthers leading 3-1. Despite the series deficit, the Lightning are listed as -110 favorites at home, and we like them to extend the series. The Lightning are in a must-win situation at Amalie Arena, where they are 29-8-4 (70.7% win percentage), outscoring opponents by an average of 3.6 goals to 2.8 per game at home. While they lost Games 1 and 2 at home (6-2 and 2-0), we trust their +34 goal differential at Amalie Arena. In Game 3, the Lightning fired 38 shots on goal, with Jake Guentzel (1 goal, 2 assists) and Nikita Kucherov (3 assists) leading the charge. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34 shots (.971 save percentage), outdueling Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky. Power Play Edge: Tampa Bay’s power play operated at 26.4% during the regular season (4th in NHL), compared to Florida’s 22.1% (11th). In Game 3, the Lightning converted 1 of 3 power-play opportunities, while Florida went 0-for-2. If Tampa Bay draws penalties, their man-advantage unit could be a difference-maker. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 113-game playoff start streak, with a career postseason save percentage of .921. His 33-save performance in Game 3 and ability to handle high-danger chances (14 of 15 high-danger shots stopped) make him a cornerstone for a Game 5 win.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -125 vs Edmonton Oilers, 10 pm ET - The Los Angeles Kings take on the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of their 2025 NHL Playoffs first-round series at Crypto.com Arena, with the series tied 2-2. We like the Kings tonight, backed by their NHL-best 33-6-4 home record this season (.814 winning percentage). At home, they have a +1.42 goal differential, scoring 3.06 goals per game while allowing just 1.98 (best in the NHL). Goaltending gives the Kings an edge, with Darcy Kuemper posting a 2.02 GAA and .922 save percentage in the regular season (second in the NHL among goalies with 50 starts). He also had two shutouts against the Oilers this year (3-0 on April 5, 5-0 on April 14). Edmonton’s Calvin Pickard, expected in net, has a 2.71 GAA and .900 save percentage, with a .889 save percentage in the playoffs. The Kings went 3-1 against the Oilers in the regular season with a +8 goal differential, and their defense has been solid at home.

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -135 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, 7pm ET We like the Panthers off their game 3 home loss to the Lightning. Florida’s 27-13-2 home record, 40-28 mark as favorites, and superior performance against winning teams give them the edge. They’ve outshot Tampa Bay 74-63 in the series, while Sergei Bobrovsky’s .936 SV% (2.53 GAA) outshines Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .892 SV% (2.67 GAA). Tampa Bay’s 19-23 road record and 7-14 mark as underdogs highlight their struggles. Florida’s depth, led by Verhaeghe and Tkachuk, and strong penalty kill make them the bet to take a 3-1 series lead.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers (-129) vs. Los Angeles Kings (Game 4, 9:30pm ET Sunday, April 27) - Edmonton’s 26-13-3 home record (62.6% win rate) this season follows a 28-9-4 mark last year, and their Game 3 rally (four third-period goals) shows their resilience after dropping the first two games in LA. The Oilers’ 5-on-5 play is a major advantage, outpacing the Kings with a 51.96% Corsi For percentage and 59.36% high-danger chance percentage in the series, including 31-14 scoring chances when Connor McDavid (12 points in series) faces LA’s top lines. Despite a dismal 0-for-12 power play (0%), Edmonton’s regular-season 26.3% power-play rate (4th in NHL) should capitalize on LA’s penalty kill, which allowed 9 power-play goals in 20 chances (55%) in last year’s playoffs. The Kings, with a 17-19-5 road record and -15 goal differential away from home, struggle to match Edmonton’s pace, despite Darcy Kuemper’s stellar 2.02 GAA and .922 SV%. Kuemper faces Edmonton’s top-three rush offense (3.16 GF/G, 11th), which generated 36 shots in Game 3. LA’s 5-for-10 power-play success (50%) is potent, but their 27% fewer road goals and 0-12 penalty-kill chances in Game 3 suggest vulnerabilities. Betting trends favor Edmonton: they’re 7-4 in their last 11 home playoff games, while LA is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road playoff underdog spots.

ASA NHL play: Over 6 Goals in Dallas  Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche (Game 4, Saturday 9:30pm ET) - Dallas (3.35 GPG, 3rd) and Colorado (3.33 GPG, 6th) are offensive powerhouses, averaging 30.8 and 29.9 shots per game, respectively. Five of their last six meetings this season (including playoffs) have finished with 6 or more goals. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger (2.67 GAA, .904 SV% in series) and Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood (2.34 GAA, .906 SV% in series) face high shot volumes (27-28 per game). Both teams’ potent power plays (Colorado 24.79%, Dallas 22.5% vs. opponent) and Colorado’s home scoring (3.45 GPG) support a high-scoring game. Trends show 5-1 Over in head-to-head matchups and 58% Over in Colorado’s home playoff games since 2022.

NHL play on: Ottawa Senators -107 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting on the Ottawa Senators to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 on Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre, with the Sens a slight favorite. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, Ottawa has been the better team overall, outshooting Toronto 61-45 across the first two games. The Senators also swept the regular-season series 3-0, outscoring Toronto 7-3. Ottawa’s underlying numbers are strong—they’ve led the playoffs with 148 shot attempts through two games and hold edges in scoring chances, expected goals, and high-danger chances, even if they haven’t converted enough. At home, where they went 27-11-3 this season, the Sens should capitalize on their territorial dominance. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 33-12-2 record when outshot this season (47 times) is impressive, but their 5-on-5 play has been underwhelming, outscoring Ottawa just 4-3 in that situation despite a 9-4 overall edge. With Ottawa’s physicality, home crowd energy, and regular-season success against the Leafs, I expect a Sens win to get back into the series.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -130 vs. Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Wednesday, 10pm ET - LA led 4-0 in Game 1 but let Edmonton tie it at 4-4 in the 3rd before winning 5-4. That should serve as a wakeup call for the Kings who dominated 2 full periods before the late collapse. The Kings have the NHL’s second-best defense (203 goals allowed) and a 32-6-4 home record, allowing just 1.98 goals per game. Darcy Kuemper’s elite 2.02 GAA and .922 SV% outmatch Stuart Skinner’s 2.81 GAA and .896 SV%, and LA has won 4 of 5 matchups this season, including two shutouts. LA is on an 18-4 run right now and we’ll back them again in Game 2.

ASA Tampa Bay Lightning -115 vs. Florida Panthers Game 1 Tuesday, 8:30pm ET - Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending edge, and home-ice advantage give them the upper hand in this series opener. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game this season, driven by Nikita Kucherov (121 points), Brayden Point (42 goals), and Jake Guentzel (41 goals), while their five-on-five GF/60 of 2.79 ranked fourth league-wide. Since February 1, they’ve allowed just 2.40 goals per game, sixth-fewest in the NHL. Florida, the defending champs, averaged 3.00 goals per game (15th) but underperformed by 29 goals based on expected metrics, indicating finishing issuies. They allowed 2.72 goals per game (seventh-fewest), but their Net Rating is only two goals better than Tampa’s, the tightest margin of any first-round series. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) is a key advantage for Tampa, especially at home, where he’s posted a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. He ranks second in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five, ideal against Florida’s low-danger shot volume (first in LDSF/60). Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid but not elite, and Florida’s forecheck, while the league’s best, may struggle against Tampa’s improved puck-moving defensemen like Victor Hedman and Nick Perbix. Florida’s health is a concern: Matthew Tkachuk (groin) hasn’t played since February 8, Aaron Ekblad is suspended for Games 1 and 2, and Aleksander Barkov is recovering from an upper-body injury. Tampa, meanwhile, is fully healthy and riding a 20-6-5 streak since January 30, with 29 home wins this season, second-most in the East. Tampa’s top-five power play (27.4% since March 1) could exploit Florida’s penalty-prone style—they’re the most penalized team in the NHL. We like the Lightning as a low money-line favorite here.

ASA NHL play on Los Angeles Kings -121 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - The Kings finished the 2024-25 regular season with an NHL-best 31-6-4 home record, boasting a .825 points percentage and allowing just 2.02 goals per game at home. Their home goal differential is impressive, with a stout defense ranked second in the league, conceding only 2.48 goals per game overall. This defensive strength is a key advantage against Edmonton’s potent offense, which averaged 3.16 goals per game overall, 3.05 GF/GP on the road. Darcy Kuemper anchors the Kings’ crease with an elite 31-11-7 record, a 2.02 GAA (second in the NHL), and a .921 save percentage across 50 appearances. At home, Kuemper is even better, posting a 20-3-2 record with a 1.67 GAA and .935 save percentage. He dominated Edmonton this season, going 3-1 with a 1.33 GAA and .952 save percentage, allowing just four goals on 100 shots. In contrast, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner struggled, finishing 26-18-4 with a 2.81 GAA and .896 save percentage. Skinner’s .894 save percentage against the Kings this season and weaker playoff leash make him a liability. The Kings also hold a 3-1 season series edge, including a 3-0 shutout and a 5-0 rout in April, showcasing their ability to stifle Edmonton’s stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom are battling injury concerns. With Edmonton missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm and possibly others, the Kings’ depth and physicality should shine. Los Angeles’ 81.8% penalty kill (11th in the NHL) can neutralize Edmonton’s 24.8% power play, further tilting the ice. We like the Kings to win Game 1 and set the tone for the series.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -110 vs. Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Montreal, fighting to clinch the Eastern Conference’s second wild card spot, faces a Carolina team that’s locked up second in the Metropolitan Division and may rest key players. The Canes will call up several players from their American Hockey League affiliate the Chicago Wolves to get key contributors rest heading into the postseason. The Canadiens are 14-11 since February, 22nd with a strong 4-1 home record in their most recent 5 games on home ice. Montreal is led by goaltender Sam Montembeault (5-1-1 last 7 starts with a 2.12 GAA and .921 SV%) who is 1-1 against the Canes this season. Montreal’s top line of Suzuki and Caufield should have plenty of opportunities in this one which spells trouble for Canes goalie Kochetkov. Kochetkov has allowed at least 3 goals in six straight starts with a 2-4 record, 4.06 GAA and .830 SV%. Montreal’s desperation makes them the clear choice. Montreal is 2 points away from clinching a playoff berth. Carolina: 1-4-1 in their last 6 games, 0-3-1 in last 4 road games.

ASA NHL play on Seattle Kraken +104 vs. LA Kings, 10:37pm ET - Seattle hosts the Kings tonight, and we like the Kraken to win at home. Los Angeles, locked into their playoff spot after beating Edmonton last night, may rest players in this back-to-back. The Kings are 20-21-3 on the road, scoring 2.95 goals per game while allowing 2.89. Seattle, out of the playoffs, is 22-17-4 at home, averaging 3.12 goals per game and conceding 3.05. Joey Daccord (2.69 GAA, .909 SV%) gives the Kraken an edge over David Rittich (2.71 GAA, .890 SV%). Seattle’s motivated for their home finale.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Goals Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, 8pm ET - The Utah Hockey Club vs. Nashville Predators game at Delta Center is primed to go over 6 goals (-110 odds). Utah allows 3.0 goals per game (17th in the NHL), while Nashville’s defense is leakier, conceding 3.3 goals per game (26th). Both teams rank in the top half for shots on goal, with Utah averaging 32.4 (8th) and Nashville at 31.1 (12th), ensuring plenty of scoring chances. Last week’s meeting saw a 4-3 Nashville win with a whopping 73 combined shots, highlighting their offensive tempo. Utah has been relentless lately, firing 34, 42, and 41 shots in their last three games, while Nashville hit 30+ shots in three straight before a 17-shot effort against Vegas. Goaltending adds fuel to the over. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (2.52 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid on the season, but has allowed 3 goals in three of his last 5 starts. Nashville’s Juuse Saros (2.96 GAA, .895 SV%, 46th in the league) struggles to stop pucks, with 15 goals allowed over his last four games. Both teams’ power plays rank in the top 17 (Utah 24.1%, Nashville 21.7%), and their penalty kills have been below average lately, suggesting special teams could contribute. With fast-paced play and defensive gaps, expect a high-scoring affair.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -138 vs. St Louis Blues, 10 pm ET - The Edmonton Oilers come in as -125 favorites against the St. Louis Blues, and I’m leaning strong toward them in this one. The Blues just saw their impressive 12-game winning streak come to an end, which might leave them a bit off-balance, especially facing an Oilers team that’s already defeated them twice this season. Edmonton’s starting goalie, Calvin Pickard, has been sharp lately with a 2.0 GAA over his last 10 starts and a 5-2 record in his past seven decisions. The Oilers are also 20-8 when he’s in net, showing his reliability. On the other side, Jordan Binnington has been solid for St. Louis with a 2.2 GAA in his last 10 starts, but his most recent outing—where he gave up 4 goals—raises some concerns about his form heading into this game. With the Blues off that loss that snapped the long winning streak and Edmonton’s offensive firepower plus prior success against the Blues ... with consideration to all those factors it gives the Oilers the massive edge here. I will go with the Oilers money line to get this clutch win on home ice.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets (-159) vs. St. Louis Blues - The Blues are riding a crazy 12-game win streak, but I’m calling it—they’re hitting a wall tonight. They’re missing their stud young forward Dylan Holloway, who’s been lighting it up with 26 goals and 37 assists, and their top defenseman Colton Parayko, who’s got 35 points, is also sidelined. Their goalie Binnington’s been solid lately, but Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck? He’s on another level—25-3-3 at home with a ridiculous 1.67 goals-against average. The Jets already beat the Blues twice this season (2-1), and they’re a beast at home with a 28-6-4 record. Plus, they’re gunning for the Central Division crown and maybe even the Presidents’ Trophy. I’m betting the Jets cash this one out tonight.

ASA NHL play on Ottawa Senators -140 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets, 5pm ET - Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back on Sunday, but the Senators had the advantage of staying home and resting their top goaltender on Saturday, when they defeated Florida to boost their home record to 23-11-2. Meanwhile, Columbus relied on their primary goalie, Merzlikins, in Toronto on Saturday night, resulting in a loss that dropped their road record to 12-22-4. Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been solid between the pipes, posting a 10-3-1 record over 14 starts with a .904 save percentage. On the other side, Columbus netminder Daniil Tarasov has averaged a 2.5 goals-against average across his last ten appearances, with the Blue Jackets going winless in his past three starts and getting outscored by a combined nine goals. Ottawa has won 3 straight in the series with Columbus and 7 of the last ten meetings. Lay it with the Sens.