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Dan Kaiser NFL Picks Archive

Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
02-09-25 Chiefs v. Eagles +1.5 22-40 Win 100 153 h 45 m Show

The Philadelphia Eagles were 14-3 during the regular season and punched their ticket to the Superbowl with a 55-23 win over Washington. Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 16 games, with the only loss in that span against Washington. Philadelphia puts up 27.2 points per game with 187.9 passing yards and 179.3 rushing yards per game. On the defensive side, they are allowing 17.8 points against per game this season. During the playoffs, Hurts has thrown for 505 yards and three touchdowns, while Saquon Barkley has rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season and took care of Buffalo 32-29 in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City has won eight of their last nine games, with their lone loss coming in the last game of the season, when they were resting starters. Kansas City has put up 22.6 points per game with 222.4 passing yards and 105.3 rushing yards per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 19.2 points per game. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 422 yards and two touchdowns, while Travis Kelce has caught nine passes for 136 yards and one score. The Eagles ranked 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game during the regular season. The Chiefs were one of only two teams in the NFL to win five games in which they trailed during the fourth quarter during the regular season. Kansas City is booking for their third straight Super Bowl. Kansas City has not looked overpowering but somehow are able to find a way to win. The Eagles dominated Washington on the ground with Barkley, but Washington had one of the worst rushing defenses. The Eagles offensive line will be at full strength in this game. You can make a compelling argument for either team. By head says take Philly as Bullalo showed in the second half, that you can run against KC and the Eagles have the best back in the business right now. They also have the defense that can at least slow down KC and maybe make a stop or two. Their kicker does scare me though as he has struggled this season and already cost me a couple of times this season. KC is KC and my heart says you can’t go against this team of destiny. Spags will come with something to slow down the Eagles offense and if one area that the Eagles struggled against was passing to the tight end and Mahomes and Kelce are the best.

I am going with my head in this one.

PLay on Philadelphia, This is a 5% play.

02-09-25 Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 49 22-40 Loss -110 7 h 19 m Show

The Philadelphia Eagles were 14-3 during the regular season and punched their ticket to the Superbowl with a 55-23 win over Washington. Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 16 games, with the only loss in that span against Washington. Philadelphia puts up 27.2 points per game with 187.9 passing yards and 179.3 rushing yards per game. On the defensive side, they are allowing 17.8 points against per game this season. During the playoffs, Hurts has thrown for 505 yards and three touchdowns, while Saquon Barkley has rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season and took care of Buffalo 32-29 in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City has won eight of their last nine games, with their lone loss coming in the last game of the season, when they were resting starters. Kansas City has put up 22.6 points per game with 222.4 passing yards and 105.3 rushing yards per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 19.2 points per game. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 422 yards and two touchdowns, while Travis Kelce has caught nine passes for 136 yards and one score. The Eagles ranked 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game during the regular season. The Chiefs were one of only two teams in the NFL to win five games in which they trailed during the fourth quarter during the regular season. Kansas City is booking for their third straight Super Bowl. Kansas City has not looked overpowering but somehow are able to find a way to win. The Eagles dominated Washington on the ground with Barkley, but Washington had one of the worst rushing defenses. The Eagles offensive line will be at full strength in this game. You can make a compelling argument for either team. By head says take Philly as Bullalo showed in the second half, that you can run against KC and the Eagles have the best back in the business right now. They also have the defense that can at least slow down KC and maybe make a stop or two. Their kicker does scare me though as he has struggled this season and already cost me a couple of times this season. KC is KC and my heart says you can’t go against this team of destiny. Spags will come with something to slow down the Eagles offense and if one area that the Eagles struggled against was passing to the tight end and Mahomes and Kelce are the best.

Play on the UNDE. This is a 4% play.

01-26-25 Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 29-32 Win 100 10 h 54 m Show

Scoring touchdowns especially in the red-zone will be crucial and will decide this game. You have two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL going at it so you will need touchdowns and not field goals.The Bills have the second-best red zone offense in the NFL, so when the Chiefs get close, they know they need touchdowns not field goals so we may see more fourth down attempts from KC. These two teams are 1 and 2 in the playoffs in scoring. These two teams have gone over in their last three playoff games. Buffalo has gone 11-6-2 to the over in their 19 games this season, 5-4 to the over on the road. Kansas City played 11 games to the under this season, including five of their nine home games. Five of the last seven matchups between the teams have gone over the total. I am looking at a game that both teams get in the 20’s if not 30’s.

Play on the OVER, This is a 5% play

01-26-25 Bills v. Chiefs -125 29-32 Win 100 9 h 1 m Show

Allen is 4-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season but 0-3 in the playoffs. They have been close, in 2021 blew a lead in the final 13 seconds of regulation, and last season, Tyler Bass missed a game-tying field goal in the final two minutes. Allen has played a lot better this season in terms of limiting turnovers and the Bills have not turned it over in the playoffs. Buffalo has a great offensive line and will look to control the clock with their running game, including Allen running the ball. The Bills have the second-best red zone offense in the NFL while the Chiefs finished just 24th in red zone offense. This may be KC’s best defense during their Super Bowl runs. The world is rooting for the Bills but until they show me they can knock off Mahomes and the Chiefs, I will have my doubts. The Bills will look to control the clock and keep the KC offense off the field. It the game is close I am taking Mahomes for the dagger at the end.

Play on KC. This is a 3% play

01-26-25 Commanders v. Eagles -6 23-55 Win 100 6 h 49 m Show

These two met just a month ago with the Commander coming from behind to pull off a 36-33 upset win as +4 underdogs. That was the only loss for Philadelphia in four months. Weather could be a factor as temperatures are expected to be in the high 30s. Hurts is dealing with a knee injury that could limit his running a bit. Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against Philadelphia. The old adage says that defense wins championships, and that will come to fruition in this game. Washington looked good last week against a depleted Detroit defense and they were the recipients of five turnovers including a pick-six. They also allowed 31 points, the most last week besides their own 45. Detroit was able to run against the defense with Gibbs and Barkley should have a good day running the ball. First, the Eagles had the best passing defense in the NFL this season. The Commanders defense ranked 30th against the run this season. The Eagles defense will be the key in this one and I like them to make the Super Bowl when it is over.

Play on Philadelphia. This is a 5% play

01-26-25 Commanders v. Eagles OVER 47 23-55 Win 100 6 h 36 m Show

When these two met in late December, they combined for 69 points, going over the posted number of 47. Over their last five games, the Eagles averaged 28.8 points per game, over the Commanders last five games, they put up 31.4 points per game. These two teams went over in a combined 20 games this season. The over is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two. The Eagles may run the ball with barkley but he has shown on numerous occasions he can bust one to the house at anytime and anywhere on the field. Washington will be throwing the ball all over the field so we could see turnovers and short fields for the Eagles. 

Play on the OVER. This is a 5% play

01-19-25 Ravens v. Bills UNDER 51.5 25-27 Loss -108 9 h 29 m Show

I am looking for a grind it out on the ground game with both teams looking to control the ball and keep the other offense off the field. Buffalo will look to limit chunk plays,especially on the ground as Henry gashed them for an 87 yard touchdown run in the first meeting. The Ravens, in their five losses this season, went under this number in four of those games. They thrive on big plays with Jackson and Henry on the ground. The passing game will take a hit without Flowers. The Bills and Ravens represented two of the three best-scoring teams in the NFL this season, but they both also have solid defenses. The Ravens are ninth in the NFL in scoring defense, and the Bills are just outside the top ten at 11. With the weather conditions expected to be cold i am looking for both teams to try and move the ball on the ground with both quarterbacks using their legs to extend drives, This will be a close game that stays under the number.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 4% play

01-19-25 Rams v. Eagles -6 22-28 Push 0 7 h 32 m Show

 These teams met on Nov. 24 with the Eagles winning 37-20 at home. The Rams averaged 21.6 points and 331.4 total yards during the regular season. The L.A. defense allowed 22.7 points per game and 353.1 total yards. The Eagles averaged 27.2 points And 367.2 total yards per game. The Philly defense allowed 17.8 points and 278.4 total yards per game, Game time temperatures are expected in the low 30s with the potential for snow. The Eagles are built for this weather and should be able to control the ball on the ground with Barkley and Hurts leading the way. The Eagles defense is outstanding and should be able to slow down Stafford and his receivers. The Rams should be able to stay n this one but in the end, the Eagles come away with the win and cover.

PLay on Philadelphia. This is a 3% play.

01-19-25 Rams v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 22-28 Loss -108 6 h 21 m Show

Both teams went under the number in the first round of the playoffs. They met in the regular season with the game going over the number but that was played in a dome and this game will be played in the cold and possible snow, The under is 15-7 in Philadelphia's last 22 games. The Eagles will look to run the ball with Barkley, eating the clock and limiting possessions. Stafford has struggled in the elements and the Eagles defense will be able to slow down the Rams offense. I see the Eagles being able to put pressure on Stafford, limiting the deep ball and allowin just just shorter routes extending drives and eating clock. This  game will go under the number.

 

PLay on the UNDER, This is a 4% play.

01-18-25 Commanders +10 v. Lions 45-31 Win 100 11 h 52 m Show

Washington has won six in a row. They only lost one game by more than eight points this season and that was their first game of the year. 10 of Washington's last 11 games were decided by one possession.In Detroit's last five wins, They have won by six points or fewer three times. Washington is 4-2 ATS in their last six games and Detroit is 3-3 ATS. Detroit has been dealing with a lot of injuries on defense and Washington should be able to move the ball. I am not sure if Washington can stop Detroit’s offense. I think Washington scores late and gets the back door cover

Play on Washington. This is a 4% play.

01-18-25 Commanders v. Lions OVER 55.5 45-31 Win 100 11 h 38 m Show

We have two of the top five scoring offenses in the NFL. Washington has scored 30 points or more in three of their last five games and 20+ points in seven straight weeks. Detroit scored 31 points or more in each of their last five games and in six of their last seven home games. These two teams has gone over in 20 games this season. The Lions put up 35.3 points a game and allowed 21.9 points a game. I am looking for a run and gun type game with a ton of points.

Play on the over. This is a 4% play.

01-18-25 Texans +9.5 v. Chiefs 14-23 Win 100 5 h 46 m Show

The Chiefs won 15 games this season but just four of those wins were by eight points or more. The Texans defense held the Chargers to just 12 points in the Wild Card game and I would suspect that Ryans will have the defense ready for this one. Both teams are missing some key wide receivers for this game. The Texans have the better running game and even though I expect Mahomes and the fourth best scoring defense to get the job done, Houston will keep this one close and within the number.

Play on Houston. This is a 3% play 

01-18-25 Texans v. Chiefs OVER 41.5 14-23 Loss -105 4 h 15 m Show

These teams met in week 16, with the Chiefs winning the game 27-19. The total for today’s game is set at 41.5 and even though it will be cold, weather should not be that much of a factor. Houston is just 27th in red-zone defense while Kansas City offense is eighth in red-zone offense. These are two pass-heavy teams, so we should see a lot of clock stoppages and the potential for more plays and points. KC will get 27 or 28 points and Houston will do just enough to put this one over the number.

Play on the OVER. This is a 3% play

01-13-25 Vikings v. Rams +2.5 9-27 Win 100 9 h 39 m Show

The final game of Wild Card weekend pits the Minnesota Vikings against the LA Rams. Minnesota finished the season at 14-3 overall and 11-5-1 ATS. They had a chance at the top seed but lost to Detroit 31-9 in the last game of the season. Los Angeles finished the season at 10-7 overall and 9-8 ATS. Minnesota put up 25.4 points per game during the regular season, which was good for ninth in the league. Sam Darnold finished fifth in the league with 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. On the defensive side, they allowed 19.5 points per game, which was fifth best. The Rams finished 5-1 down the stretch with the loss coming when they rested their starters in the last game of the season. The Rams put up 21.6 points per game, 20th in the league. Matt Stafford threw for 3,762 yards,and 20 touchdowns. On the defensive side, they allowed 22.7 per game. These two teams already met in week eight, with the Rams getting a 30-20 upset win. In that game, Nacua and Kupp had huge days for the Rams, combining for 12 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown. Stafford has thrown for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight postseason games. Minnesota and Sam Darnold outperformed expectations this season. But Darnold looked like the old Darnold in the week 18 loss to the Lions. The Vikings rely on an aggressive defense which could be dangerous against the Rams passing game. I am putting my money on Stafford in this game as he is the ore proven quarterback and Darnold looked shaky in the big game to close out the season.

Play on the LA Rams. This is a 4% play

01-12-25 Commanders v. Bucs OVER 50 23-20 Loss -110 12 h 11 m Show

Both teams combined eo win 11 of 12 games down the stretch, mainly due to the offenses. . The Commanders averaged over 30 points per game over their last 5 games, while the Buccaneers put up just under 32 points per game over their last 7.  Washington finished the season fifth in scoring. Tampa Bay was fourth. The Buccaneers scored more than 25 points in seven of their nine home games. They should run all over Washington this Sunday. The Commanders are averaging 30.2 points during this five-game winning streak. These teams played in week 1 with TB winning 37-20. This isn’t the same Washington team as Daniels has a lot more experience than he did in Week 1. I think Washington's offense will be better today and this game flies over the number. 

Play on the OVER. This is a 5% play

01-12-25 Packers v. Eagles -5 10-22 Win 100 9 h 6 m Show

The Philadelphia Eagles take on the Green Bay Packers in an NFC Wild Card game. The Packers were hoping to come in on a winning note but they did not look good in the last game of the season against the Chicago Bears and now have lost two in a row. Packers quarterback Jordan Love injured his elbow in the game and did not finish. They also lost Wide receiver Christian Watson for the season with a knee injury. Malik Willis completed 10 of his 13 passes for 136 yards in a replacement role. Love has been officially listed as questionable for the game, but I expect him to give it a go. Linebacker Quay Walker has an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for the game. The Packers are putting up 27.1 points while their defense is giving up 19.9 points per game. The offense is ranked 8th best in the NFL while the defense is ranked 6th. The Eagles look like the real deal but this is a tough matchup to start the playoffs. The Eagles rested most of their starters in the last game, but they were still able to beat the New York Giants. Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion during week 16. He has not been officially cleared to play, like Love, I expect him to give it a go. The Eagles put up 27.2 points this season while their defense is giving up 17.8 points per game. The offense is ranked 7th in the league while the defense is ranked 2nd. AJ Brown is dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable. Nakobe Dean has an abdominal injury and is questionable for this game. 

 

TRENDS:  The Packers have won 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs following a Division game. The Eagles have lost six of their last seven Wild Card Round games. The Eagles have won each of their last seven games at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a Division win.

 

 Going on the assumption both quarterbacks play, I give the advantage to the Eagles. The Eagles offense is putting up 27.2 points per game and I look for them to move the ball against the Packers both on the ground and through the air. The Packers have not looked great down the stretch and their offense suffered a huge blow with the loss of Watson.Green Bay will score some points in this one but I don’t think they will do a lot against the Eagles defense.

 

Play on Philadelphia.  This is a 4% play

01-11-25 Chargers -150 v. Texans 12-32 Loss -150 103 h 33 m Show

The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans play on Saturday, Jan. 11 at the Texans' NRG Stadium. The Chargers have won three in a row and gave up an NFL-low 301 points this season. LA is playing terrific footbalL and was 12-5 ATS this season for the best number in the AFC. The Texans have been hit by injuries to key players and finished the season 7-8-2 ATS.  The Chargers had been a one-man show at receiver with Ladd McConkey carrying the receiver corps. But Quentin Johnston stepped up last game with 13 catches and over 180 yards so he may become another weapon for Herbert. The Texans had a top-three pass defense in 2024 and edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. can cause some problems for Justin Herbert. The Chargers are 7-3 record in their last 10 games, and 8-2 ATS. The Texans were 5-3 at home this season. The Texans will be without their top three receivers for this game and could be without their fourth. The Chargers will control the game with their rushing attack and their defense. When they do pass, Herbert has thrown for 23 touchdowns and three interceptions. Texas will struggle to move the ball, especially with all the injuries to their receivers.

Play on the Chargers on the moneyline. This is a 4% play.

01-05-25 Vikings v. Lions -153 9-31 Win 100 12 h 35 m Show

The NFC’s top seed and the NFC North title are on the line Sunday Night. The Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions both come in at 14-2. The Lions won the first game 31-29 on the road. The Vikings have and quarterback San Darnold have been the surprise team of the season in the NFL. The Vikings have won nine in a row. Darnold has thrown for 4,153 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. On the defensive side, the Vikings are fourth in the NFL this season, allowing 18.8 points per game. The Lions have won two in a row after losing to Buffalo. Jared Goff has thrown for 4,398 yards with 36 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. On the defensive side, they are ninth in the league in scoring at 20.8 points per game. The Vikings have won nine in a row but just one against a playoff team. 

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play.

01-05-25 Chiefs +11.5 v. Broncos 0-38 Loss -110 8 h 14 m Show

 

Kansas City at 15-1 overall has home field advantage locked up throughout the playoffs and will be resting their key players in this one. That is a good thing for Denver that will make the playoffs with a win. Denver is 9-7 overall and 11-5 ATS. These teams played Nov. 10 with the Chiefs winning 16-14. The Chiefs have won six straight games. They are 13th in yards and 11th in points at 24.1 points per game. On defense, they are fourth in yards against and they have the second-best scoring defense at 18 points a game. The Broncos need only to win to secure the seventh and final spot in the AFC. They have lost two straight to set up this must win situation. Rookie No Nix has thrown for 3,454 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Broncos’ offense is 20th in yards and 10th in scoring at 24.2 points per game. On the defensive end, they are fifth in scoring at 19.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs are expected to rest many key players, including Mahomes. Wentz is a viable backup and Andy Reid has won these games in the past. Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs have lost only one game by more than ten points. I don’t espect the Chiefs to win this game but I like them to keep it within the number.

Play on KC. This is a 3% play.

01-05-25 Bears +10 v. Packers 24-22 Win 100 5 h 55 m Show

The Chicago Bears can salvage something from this miserable season with a win over their heated rival the Green Bay Packers. Chicago looked to be off to a good start at 4-2 but have lost 10 in a row. Green Bay comes in at 11-5. Chicago ranks 29th in scoring at 17.9 points per game and last in total yards. Caleb Williams has thrown for 3,393 yards with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions but he has been sacked 67 times. The Chicago defense has not lived up to expectations this season. The Bears are ranked 25th in total yards but have the 12th best scoring defense at 21.8 points per game. The Packers sit in the seventh spot but can move to sixth with a win and a Commanders' loss. Jordan Love has thrown for 3,320 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Pack ranks seventh in the NFL With 371.1 total yards per game this season and fifth in rushing. On defense, Green Bay ranks eighth in yards allowed,  and sixth in points at 19.6 points per game. It’s going to be a cold one in Green Bay with temperatures expected around 20 degrees. Back in November in Chicago, the Packers came away with a 20-18 win. It was the Bears only cover in the last 10 games. Jacobs could be limited in this one due to a wrist injury. The Bears would love nothing better than get a win to snap their losing streak to end the season, especially  over their heated rival. I am looking for a low scoring, close game in the cold of Green Bay.

Play on Chicago. This is a 3% play..

01-05-25 Bears v. Packers UNDER 41.5 24-22 Loss -115 5 h 52 m Show

This matchup features a top 10 offense in Green Bay against a bottom 10 offense in Chicago, They combined for 39 points last meeting with a total of 41. Chicago is coming off a three point game last time out. They have not scored more than 17 points in their last four games and in eight of their last ten games. The Pack have scored 30 points or more in five of their last six games. They have averaged 23.8 points in five games against the NFC North. Between the two teams, the under have hit in 18 games this season and the under is also 3-2 in the last five games between these teams. The weather could be a factor and you could see Green Bay pulling starters early depending the score of this game or the Washington game.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play

01-04-25 Bengals -136 v. Steelers 19-17 Win 100 12 h 38 m Show

The Cincinnati Bengals go on the road to Pittsburgh for an AFC North clash with the Steelers.  Cincinnati still has a shot at a wild card spot. The Steelers are 10-6 overall and if the Ravens lose to Cleveland, they have a chance to claim the division. The Bengals need a win here and a Denver loss and a Miami loss or tie to reach the postseason. The Bengals have won four straight games. Quarterback Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards with 4,641 yards, He has thrown for 42 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Bengals are putting up 28.3 points per game which ranks sixth. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 26.1 points per game which ranks 29th in the league. Cincinnati is 10-6 against the spread this season and 7-1 against the spread on the road. Pittsburgh is in second place in the AFC North behind the Ravens. The Steelers have lost three straight games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for 2,334 with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Steelers are putting up 22.7 points per game which ranks 14th best. On defense, Pittsburgh is allowing 20.5 points which ranks seventh best. They are are 10-6 against the spread this season. They are 5-2 against the spread at home this season. The Bengals will need to win to keep playoff hopes alive.  The Steelers do rank 23rd in pass defense which Burrow and his wide receivers will exploit. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Steelers 23rd ranked pass defense. If Baltimore takes care of business early in the day, the Steelers will have nothing to play for. The Steelers have struggled down the stretch losing three in a row, The Bengals offense has been rolling and they will do so again today.

Play on Cincinnati. This is a 5% play.

12-30-24 Lions -3.5 v. 49ers 40-34 Win 100 12 h 32 m Show

Detroit comes into this game against  San Francisco at 13-2 SU, and  10-5 ATS. It has been a disappointing season for San Francisco as they are 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS.  The Lions can clinch the top spot in the conference by winning their last two games.  Detroit has the best scoring offense, putting up 32.9 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball and despite all their injuries, they are seventh in points allowed at 19.9 points per game. San Francisco has been eliminated from the playoffs and is hoping to get through the next two games injury free. They have struggles down the stretch, going 1-5 over their last six. The Niners rank 14th in the league with 22.1 points per game. On the defensive side, they rank 21st overall, giving up 23.3 points per game.  The Lions can earn the top spot in the NFC by winning out. Detroit is 3-1 ATS in their last four games versus San Francisco.  San Fran’s offense has been depleted due to injuries and their running game has struggled without McCaffrey and a banged up offensive line. Over their last six games, the Niners scored 17 points or less five times and 10 or less three times. The Lions averaged 34.6 points per game. Despite all the injuries to the defense they have still played well but it is all about the offense in this one.

Play on Detroit. This is a 5% play

12-29-24 Packers v. Vikings -115 25-27 Win 100 6 h 15 m Show

The Packers have relied on their rushing attack and Josh Jacobs in particular. He is fourth in rushing with 1,216 rushing yards. Things won’t be easy running against a Viking defense that is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game. The Vikings can still win the division and the top-seed if they can win the next two weeks. Green Bay has already clinched a playoff spot and cannot win the division. The Vikings have won seven of their last eight games and five in a row against NFC opponents. The Vikings won the first game by two points and I expect another low scoring game. Green Bay is banged up in the secondary and will struggle against the Vikings receivers. Take the Vikings at home.

Play on Minnesota on the money line. This is a 5% play.

12-29-24 Dolphins v. Browns UNDER 33 20-3 Win 100 6 h 7 m Show

The weather could be a factor in this one as it is expected to rainy and windy. The Dolphins do not play well away from home as they are putting up just 15.3 points per game away from home. The Browns are 31st in scoring this season. Miami relies on the precision and timing of its aerial attack, which will be affected by the conditions.   Cleveland’s secondary has been able to limit big plays this season. The Browns defense is the best against the run. Miami’s last three games in bad weather averaged just 36 total points. Miami will struggle to get their vertical game going and the Browns offense is just awful to begin with.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play

12-29-24 Cowboys +7.5 v. Eagles 7-41 Loss -115 3 h 13 m Show

Dallas goes on the road to Philadelphia for an NFC East rivalry matchup. The Cowboys are 7-8 overall this season and have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Eagles are 12-3 overall and they lead the division and have locked up a playoff spot. The Eagles has a 10 game winning streak snapped last week. The Cowboys have started to play better winning four of their last five,  CeeDee Lamb and corner Amani Oruqariye are out for Sunday’s game. Dallas is putting up 21.6 points per game which ranks 20th. They are third worst in scoring defense, allowing 26.9 points per game. The Cowboys are 6-8-1 against the spread this season. The Eagles Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in loss last week and will sit this one out. Kenny Pickett is also dealing with a rib injury. Philadelphia is averaging 26.8 points per game which ranks eighth best. On the defensive side they rank fifth in points allowed at 18.9 points. The Eagles are 9-6 against the spread this season. Dallas has won four of their last five games with Cooper Rush under center, The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Jalen Hurts due to a concussion. Kenny Pickett has injured ribs and Dallas will stack the box and make Pickett beat them with his arm I think he will struggle against a Dallas defense that has been playing better during this win streak. This looks like a lower scoring game and I will take the points in this rivalry game. 



Play on Dallas. This is a 3% play.

12-28-24 Broncos +3.5 v. Bengals 24-30 Loss -120 7 h 10 m Show

The Denver Broncos travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in AFC action.  Denver has a four-game winning streak snapped last week in a game that would have clinched a playoff spot with a win. They are tied for second in the AFC West, though the Chargers own the tiebreaker.  Denver is 10th in scoring offense, putting up 24.2 points per game while they are 4th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 18.7 points a contest. Cincinnati has won three in a row to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are 10th in the AFC playoff picture and need to win out, and then get some help. Cincinnati is 6th in the league in scoring offense at 28.2 points per game but 28th in scoring defense, giving up 26.2 points per game.  Denver can clinch a playoff spot with a win while Cincinnati is hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive. Denver is great at stopping the run and is OK against the pass. The Bengals defense can allow points on any given Sunday. Both teams have something to play for and U look for a close game. Take the points with Denver.

Play on DENVER. This is a 3% play.

12-28-24 Chargers -6 v. Patriots 40-7 Win 100 4 h 3 m Show

The Los Angeles Chargers head east to take on the New England Patriots. Los Angeles is tied for second in the AFC West at 9-6-0. New England are last in the AFC East at 3-12-0. The Chargers are one win away from clinching their playoff berth with two games on the road to finish the season. The Chargers defense has been carrying the day allowing just 18.3 points per game. Which is the best in the NFL. Herbert and the offense looked good last week but has been inconsistent all season. The Patriots come into this game, losers of five straight. On offense, the Patriots are the third-worst team in scoring, putting up 17.3 points per game. On the defensive side, they rank 24th overall in points allowed per game. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. The New England Patriots have a record of 2-3-1 against the spread at home this season. New England will struggle to get points in this one and the Chargers know they need this game so it doesn’t come down to the final week. The Chargers are the better team on both sides of the ball and will come away with a lopsided victory.

Play on the LA Chargers. This is a  3% play.

12-26-24 Seahawks -4 v. Bears 6-3 Loss -108 12 h 16 m Show

The Seattle Seahawks come into this game with an overall record of 8-7 but have lost two in  a row. Things looked promising for the Chicago Bears after they opened the season 4-2. After a loss on a Mary, they have lost nine in a row. The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a loss to Minnesota. The Seahawks offense is ranked 15th in scoring at 22.6 points per game while their defense is ranked 13th in allowing 22.7 points per game. The Bears are looking for a win anywhere they can find one. The Chicago Bears offense ranks 26th in scoring at 18.9 points per game while their defense is 14th in giving up 22.8 points per game. The Seahawks offense has put up 23.3 points in their last four games played while the Bears are scoring just 17.8 points in their previous five games played. Seattle’s defense has allowed an average of 20.4 points in their last five games while Chicago is allowing 34.0 points in their previous three games. The Bears offensive line is pretty banged up and Caleb Williams has already been sacked 60 times this season. The Seahawks are in a must-win mode situation.  With a loss, the Seahawks are officially out of the playoffs. The Seahawks are also 5-1 away from home this season, and the Bears are just 4-4 at home.  Seattle will do just enough and Chicago will find another way to lose a game. 

Play on Seattle. This is a 3% play.

12-25-24 Ravens -5.5 v. Texans 31-2 Win 100 15 h 5 m Show

Baltimore goes on the road to Houston for a Christmas Day game with the Houston Texans. The Ravens are 10-5 and they have won three of their last four games. The Texans are 9-6 and they were defeated by the Chiefs on Saturday. Not only did they lose the game, they lost Tank Dell to an injury. With the win last week over Pittsburgh, the Ravens moved into a tie with the Steelers for first place in the AFC North. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs and are trying to secure the division title. Baltimore is putting up 30.1 points per game which ranks third. They are fifth in passing and 2nd in rushing. On the defensive side,  Baltimore is giving up 23.3 points per game which ranks 20th. They have the 2nd best rushing defense but the second worst passing defense. Baltimore is 8-6-1 against the spread this season. Houston is coming off a loss to the Chiefs. Houston is 9-6 overall and has clinched the AFC South. They have won three of their last five games. Houston is putting up 23.4 points per game which ranks 13th best. They are 15th in passing and 16th in rushing. On the defensive side, the Texans are allowing 21.4 points per game which ranks ninth best. They rank 15th in passing defense and 12th in rushing defense. Houston is 6-7-2 against the spread this season. The Ravens are 5-3 against the spread on the road. They are tough to defend as they can run the ball with Henry and have a good passing attack with Jackson.The Texans’ defense ranks in the middle of the league in pass and rush defense. Baltimore has only scored 20 points twice this season and without Dell they will struggle to move the ball. Baltimore scores 30 on a regular basis. Baltimore needs this win as they try to take the division while Houston has already clinched. 

Play on Baltimore. This is a 3% play.

12-25-24 Ravens v. Texans OVER 46.5 31-2 Loss -110 15 h 5 m Show

Baltimore has gone over the number in 12 of their 15 games this season. They have been held under 20 points on the road just once this season. They've scored at least 30 points in nine of their past 12 games. The Texans have scored at least 20 points in six straight home games. In a short week, the offenses will be the star of the show. The over is 7-1 when Baltimore has played on the road. Houston and Baltimore each average over 23 points per game. I expect this game to go over the number.

Play on the over. This is a 4% play.

12-25-24 Chiefs v. Steelers UNDER 44 29-10 Win 100 12 h 35 m Show

Kansas City has gone under in eight of their 15 games this season. The Chiefs have stayed under the total in four of their seven road games this season. Pittsburgh has gone over in 8 of their 15 games this season. The Steelers have stayed under the number in four of their six games at home this season. The Chiefs have held their opposition to 19 points or fewer in four straight games. They have the third-best defense at 18.5 points per game. The Steelers are sixth at 19.9 points a game. Surprisingly, these are two of the worst red-zone offenses in the NFL. Kansas City is converting only 51.7% of their red-zone trips to touchdowns, while Pittsburgh converts just 48.0%. I am looking for a close defensive dual with more field goals than touchdowns.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 4% play.

12-23-24 Saints v. Packers UNDER 42.5 0-34 Win 100 12 h 40 m Show

New Orleans is 7-7 in overs and unders this season. On the road, the Saints are 3-3 in overs and unders. They have gone under in three straight overall and in three of their last four on the road. Green Bay has seen the under go 7-6-1 and 4-2-1 in their seven home games. The weather prediction does not look great for a domes team with light snow expected with a low of 23 and winds of 10-15 mph.  Spencer Rattler makes the start for the Saints and he will be without two of his best offensive weapons.  Under normal circumstances the Saints would struggle on offense. Everything goes against the Saints putting up s ton of points and I don’t see the Packers scoring enough to put this one over.

Play on the UNDER. This is a  4% play

12-22-24 Vikings -2 v. Seahawks 27-24 Win 100 6 h 41 m Show

The Minnesota Vikings  are 12-2 this season and tied for the NFC North lead. They head to Seattle, looking for their fourth win in a row. The Seattle Seahawks come into this game at 8-6. Seattle is 7-3 in its last 10 games against Minnesota with the last meeting happening in 2021.

The Vikings picked up their sixth straight win and clinched a playoff spot with a win over the Bears, They are putting up 26.1 points per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 18.5 points per game. The Seahawks had their four-game winning streak snapped ;ast week by the Packers. They are tied with Los Angeles at the top of the NFC West standings. Seattle puts up 22.5 points per game and are giving up 22.4 points per game. Smith is expected to play despite suffering a knee injury last week. The Vikings have an the better offense should be able to move the ball through the air against the Seahawks injury riddled defense. If Smith can’t go. The Seahawks will struggle to move the ball with Howell against the Vikings defense. Even with Smith, I expect a Vikings win and cover.

Play on Minnesota. This is a 4% play.

12-22-24 Rams -3 v. Jets 19-9 Win 100 3 h 0 m Show

The  Los Angeles  hope to keep their playoff hopes alive when they head East to take on the New York Jets. The Rams come into this game at 8-6 while the Jets are 4-10 this season but are out of the playoff picture. The Rams control their destiny over the last three seasons. The Rams are 4-3 away from home this season. They are 17th in scoring this season with an offense that is 29th in rushing and 9th in passing. On the defensive end, They are 24th in scoring defense, 23rd against the run and 19th against the pass. The Jets snapped a four-game losing streak last weekend with a win over Jacksonville. The Jets are just 2-4 at home this season. They are 22nd in scoring and are 19th on the ground and 18th through the air. Pm the defensive side, they are 18th in scoring defense, sixth against the run and fifth against the pass. 

The Rams are in must-win mode and need this win more than the Jets do. The Rams have won four in a row on the road. The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air against a Jets defense that has not been very good against the pass the last three weeks. I like the Rams to get a much needed win on the road.

 

Play on the New York Jets. This is a 3% play.



12-22-24 Lions v. Bears UNDER 47.5 34-17 Loss -110 2 h 13 m Show

Three of the previous four matchups have gone under the point total. The Chicago defense has held its opponents to 20 points or less in all but one of its home games this season, Detroits offense will have to go outdoors and face the elements in Chicago. Chicago has pushed or gone under the point total in two of their last three games overall and two straight at Soldiers Field. The Lions have gone under in three straight games on the road. As banged up as the Lions defense is, they are inconsistent.

Play the under. This is a 3% play

12-21-24 Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 17-34 Loss -110 6 h 56 m Show

In the last five meetings between the two, both teams have failed to pass the 45 point. In fact, they have combined for just under 36 points in those five games. Both defenses have been playing well. Baltimore is dealing with injuries to their outside weapons. Both teams will look to control the ball on the ground and limit mistakes in what should be a highly contested game. The Under is 8-2 in the last ten matchups between the Steelers and Ravens. Without Pickens, the Steelers lose their big play threat. I don’t see a lot of points coming from either side in this one.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play

12-21-24 Steelers +7 v. Ravens 17-34 Loss -115 6 h 55 m Show

As good as Baltimore has been over the years, the Steelers seem to be their Achilles Heel. The Ravens have lost eight of their last nine games against the Steelers, and Lamar Jackson is just 1-4 in his career against Pittsburgh with 8 interceptions. Usually you can count on a low-scoring, dog fight in the trenches kind of game where points come at a premium. The last five meetings have all been decided by seven points or fewer. Baltimore has serious injury concerns at Wide Receiver and their offensive line and secondary are dealing with injuries as well. The Steelers will be able to keep this one close and if not win another one outright. I will take the points in this one.

Play on Pittsburgh. This is a 3% play

12-21-24 Texans +3.5 v. Chiefs 19-27 Loss -115 3 h 9 m Show

Houston opened as one-point favorites, but is now getting 3.5 points. It looks like Patrick Mahomes will give it a go and try to play with a high ankle sprain. Even with Mahomes under center all season, the Kansas City offense has not been blowing out other teams, but has  been finding ways to win close games. Four of their last five wins have been by three or fewer points.  The Texans are still fighting for playoff position, and Stroud now has Nico Collins healthy. L liked Houston after last Sunday and I like them even more at this number. The Texans, they’re 9-5 this season, but they’ve only lost three games by more than 3.0 points. As for the Chiefs, they’re 13-1, but are just 9-5 against this number of -3.5 points. Houston will be able to get pressure on Mahomes from the outside and with the ankle I don’t see Mahomes being able to effectively get out of the pocket and make Mahomes plays.

Play on Houston. This is a 5% play.

12-19-24 Broncos +2.5 v. Chargers 27-34 Loss -100 10 h 15 m Show

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers meet in an AFC West battle. The Broncos are 9-5 overall but an impressive 11-3 ATS. The Los Angeles Chargers are 8-6 overall and 9-5 ATS. The Chargers beat the Broncos 23-16 in October. The Denver Broncos are on a four game winning streak, and have covered in five straight, after coming away with a win over Indianapolis last weekend. They are in the 2nd wildcard spot in the AFC. They have finished the season strong, going 6-2 in their past eight games. The Denver offense has scored 29 or more points in four straight games. The defense has allowed 19 or fewer points in four of its last five games. On the season, they are putting up 24 points a game and are giving up 17.6 points. Los Angeles is in a wildcard spot in the AFC, standing one game behind the Broncos. The Chargers have covered the spread in three of the last five games. The Los Angeles offense has scored 23 or fewer points in four of their past five bouts. The Chargers defense has allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last six games. On the season, they are putting up 21 points a game and are giving up 17.6 points. These teams are going in different directions down the stretch, Denver has won four in a row and six of their last eight while the Chargers have lost three of their last four. Herbert has an ankle injury and may not be 100% and JK Dobbins is not in the lineup for the Chargers. The Broncos have momentum and will come away with a win in this one.

Play on Denver. This is a 4% play

12-16-24 Falcons -5.5 v. Raiders 15-9 Win 100 10 h 46 m Show

The Raiders have been awful this season and to make matters worse, it is not clear who will be under center for this one. Las Vegas has lost nine in a row with those losses coming by almost 12 points on average. Cousins has struggled at times but the Falcons have a definite advantage at the skill positions. The Vegas defense is ranked 30th in points against at 27.8points a game and this is the perfect spot for Cousins to get right. To make matters worse, Vegas will be without Max Crosby for the rest of the season. The Falcons need a win and should get it quite easily in this one. 

Play on Atlanta. This is a 4% play

12-16-24 Bears v. Vikings -7 12-30 Win 100 9 h 6 m Show

The Chicago Bears go on the road for a NFC North showdown with the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears had high hopes for the season but are just 4-9, on a seven game losing streak and fired their coach during the season for the first time in their long history. The Vikings are 11-2 overall this season and are in second place in the NFC North. Minnesota has won six straight games. Caleb Williams has had a decent rookie season, throwing for 2,746 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Bears are putting up 19.5 points per game and the defense is giving up 21.4 points per game. Chicago is 6-5-2 against the spread this season but just 1-4-1 on the road. Minnesota has been the surprise team this season, posting an 11-2 record this season. As much of a surprise the Vikings have been, Sam Darnold has been an even bigger surprise. He has thrown for 3,299 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Minnesota is putting up 26.1 points per game and allowing 18.5 points per game. Minnesota is 8-4-1 against the spread overall and 5-2 at home. The Bears didn't have the “new coach” bounce against San Francisco. The Vikings are very good when playing at home. They have the sixth best scoring defense in the NFL. They have the ability to move the ball down the field quickly, both on the ground and through the air. The Bears had thoughts of the playoffs, they are not technically eliminated but are on life support and probably thinking of end of season plans. The Vikings defense will cause the Bears offense all night and the Vikings will come away with a win and cover.

Play on Minnesota. This is a 4% play.

12-15-24 Packers -2.5 v. Seahawks 30-13 Win 100 11 h 4 m Show

The Green Bay Packers will face the Seattle Seahawks in a primetime showdown. The Packers are 9-4 and are coming off a loss to Detroit, 34-31 last week. The Seahawks are 8-4 and are coming off a win over Arizona. The Packers have been relying more and more on running the ball with Josh Jacobs that throwing the ball with Jordan Love. Jacobs will be facing a Seattle defense that is 21 against the run, allowing 126 yards a game on the ground. Good news foe the Packer defense, as they will get Jaire Alexander back in the lineup to help slow down the Seattle passing attack. Kenneth Walker is not expected to play for Seattle. I look for the Packers to control the game on the ground and get an important win on the road. 

Play on Green Bay. This is a 3 % play

12-15-24 Bucs v. Chargers -150 40-17 Loss -150 7 h 11 m Show

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 7-6 this season but are 1st in NFC South. They go on the road to face the LA Chargers. The Chargers are 8-5 and 2nd in AFC West. The Buccaneers have won three in a row while the Chargers are coming off a close loss to the Chiefs and have lost two of their last three. The Chargers have been playing well at home winning three of their last four both straight up and against the number. Their defense has limited NFC South teams to 13 points or less in their last three games. Tampa Bay has lost their last three games to AFC West teams, both straight up and against the number. Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS this season. Including six of their last seven. LA has a nig advantage on the defensive side of the ball and that will carry them to a win and cover.

Play on LA Chargers on the money line. This is a 3% play

12-15-24 Bills v. Lions -135 48-42 Loss -135 7 h 10 m Show

The Buffalo Bills head to Detroit to take on the Lions in what could be a Super Bowl preview. The Bills lead the AFC East with a 10-3 record while Detroit is at the top of the NFC North with a record of 12-1. The Buffalo Bills are coming off a shootout loss to the Rams 44-42. The loss snapped a seven hame winning streak. Buffalo ranks second in scoring at 30.5 points per game.  Buffalo is 11th in rushing yards and 12th overall in passing yards. Detroit is coming off a 34-31 win over Green Bay. The win was the eleventh in a row for Detroit. The Lions' offense leads the league in scoring at 32.1 points per game. It is just not about the offense for the Lions, despite all their injuries to the defense, they are still second in points allowed at 18 points a game. What is even more scary, is that they are starting to get healthy along the defensive front. The Bills are 1-2 on the road as underdogs this season. Neither team jas been great against the pass this season. Buffalo’s defense is  25th overall in opponent third dowrate while Detroit. While this looks like a back and forth affair, converting on third down could be crucial. Detroit has a nice two back rushing attack and the best offensive line that wears down opponents late in the game. Detroit is getting healthier on a defense that is second in the NFL in points allowed.  I like Detroit to win a close one at home. I am taking the Lions on the money line

Play on Detroit on the moneyline . This is a 3% play.

12-15-24 Chiefs -4 v. Browns 21-7 Win 100 4 h 47 m Show

The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-1 and have won three in a row. The CLeveland Browns are 3=10 and have lost two in a row. The Kansas City Chiefs are tied with Detroit for the best record in football but they have not looked as dominant as their record suggests. The Chiefs offense is tied for 11th at 23.7 points per game. They have been led by a defense that is seventh in the points allowed at 19.4. The Cleveland Browns offense is just 29th with 17.8 points per game. The defense has not lived up to expectations as they are 26th, allowing 25.8 points a game. Kansas City, at least on the offensive end, seems to be playing down to their competition. This game will come down to which defense can get the job done, Over their last three games. The Chiefs defense has allowed 20.3 points a game while the Browns have allowed 30.5 points in their last four games. The Chief’s offense is still head and shoulders above the Brown’d offense. They convert on over 50% of third downs as compared to the Browns who convert less than 30%. Winston in good for an interception or two which puts the Browns defense behind the eight-ball. It is hard to trust the Chiefs laying points but I have to take Mahomes over Winston in this one.

Play on KC. This is a  3% play

12-09-24 Bengals v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 27-20 Loss -110 9 h 59 m Show

This game pits two of the league’s worst scoring defenses against each other. They both give up 28 points a game. Over their last ten games, Cincinnati has allowed at least 24 points in seven games.The Bengals offense has scored 27 points or more in their last three games. Dallas has given up at least 26 points in six of their last seven games and they’ve scored at least 27 in two straight. he over has hit in 17 games between the two teams this season. I can see this game going over early in this one.

Play on the OVER. This is a 3% play.

12-08-24 Chargers +4 v. Chiefs 17-19 Win 100 11 h 16 m Show

These two met at the end of September, with the Chiefs coming away with a 17-10. The Chiefs are not blowing teams out as they have won their last three games by three points or less. They were able to hold Los Angeles scoreless in three quarters when they first met this season. The Chargers offense has been inconsistent all season and pretty pedestrian. Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Chargers. I am taking the Chargers as I believe they will be able to keep this game close.

Play on LA Chargers, This is a 4% play

12-08-24 Bears +3 v. 49ers 13-38 Loss -100 7 h 23 m Show

San Francisco welcomes Chicago for a game between two disappointing teams this season. The 49ers have been dealing with injuries all season and are 5-7 overall and they have lost three in a row. The Bears are 4-8 overall and they have lost six straight games. The Bears fired their head coach and will look for the new coach bounce. The Bears gave their fans hope, starting the season at 4-2 but then they found new ways to lose every week for six weeks. Under their old coach, the Bears were 5-19 in one score games. Caleb Williams has been playing better despite the Bears losses. He has thrown for 2,612 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Williams has thrown 232 straight passes without an interception. The Bears are 23rd in scoring at 20.1 points per game and 9th best in points allowed at 20 points per game. Chicago is 6-4-2 against the spread this season but just 1-3-1 against the spread on the road. It has been a disappointing season in San Francisco and they find themselves in last place in the NFC West. Christian McCaffrey was placed on the injured reserve after spraining his PCL in a loss last week. Brock Purdy has thrown for 2,707 with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The 49ers are putting up 22.5 points per game which ranks 16th best. On the defensive end, they are giving up 24.6 points per game which ranks 24th. San Francisco is 4-8 against the spread this season.  San Francisco has talent and has the eighth best passing attack and seventh best rush offense. Caleb Williams has been paying better and the team has been in games despite the losses. The 49’ers have a lot of injuries. I think the Bears come out hard for the new coach and keeps this one close.

Play on Chicago. This is a 3% play.

12-08-24 Falcons v. Vikings -6 21-42 Win 100 4 h 0 m Show

The Atlanta Falcons face the Vikings. Atlanta is 6-6 on the season while Minnesota has been an impressive 10-2. The Falcons started the season 6-3 but have hit a rut and lost three in a row.  Despite losing three in a row, Atlanta is tied for the division lead. Kirk Cousins has thrown for over 3000 yards with 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has thrown 6 interceptions and zero touchdowns over the losing streak. The Falcons defense is allowing 24.3 points per game. They have allowed more than 21 points, just once in the last four games. The Minnesota Vikings have been the biggest surprise this season. Despite being 10-2 they are a game behind Detroit for the division lead. The Vikings come in on a five game winning streak. The Vikings are 5-1 at home this season. Sam Darnold looks like he resurrected his career, at least for this season. He has thrown for 23 TDs to 10 INTs. He has not thrown an interception over his last 3 games. On the defensive side, they have allowed 18.3 points a game, which is the 5th fewest points per game in the league. These teams have been playing at different levels the last few weeks with the Vikings winning five in a row and the Falcons losing three in a row. The quarterbacks have also been playing at different levels. Darnod has thrown for six touchdowns and no interception over the last three games while Cousins is just the opposite with six interceptions and no touchdowns over the last three games. Minnesota is top-five in sacks and takeaways. Minnesota will be able to find ways to score against Atlanta and if Cousins does not play better. Atlanta will find it difficult to keep up against the Vikings defense. I like the Vikings at home in this one.  

 

Play on Minnesota. This is a 3% play.

12-05-24 Packers v. Lions -175 31-34 Win 100 11 h 54 m Show

We have a NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Detroit won back in November 24-14. Green Bay is 9-3 this season and two games behind Detroit in the NFC North. They are on a three-game winning streak. Jordan Love has thrown for 2,518 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Packers are giving up 20.0 points per game, which is ninth in the NFL. Despite injuries piling up on the defensive side, the Lions are still 11-1 this season with a game lead over Minnesota and two over Green Bay in the NFC North. They have won 10 in a row after losing to Tampa Bay in week two. The Lions are putting up 31.9 points per game. Jared Goff has thrown for 2,982 yards with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. It is just not all offense for the Lions as they have the second-best defense, allowing 16.9 points per game this season. The Lions have won 10 in a row with an average margin of victory of 15 points. Green Bay has a solid run game and will look to utilize it to slow down the Detroit offense. Detroit has a two-headed monster at running back and can move the ball just as efficiently through the air. Green Bay has been a trendy pick and I see why with the Lion's defense being racked by injuries. I just can’t step in front of the Detroit train right now as they have to continue winning as it is a dogfight for the NFC North crown. Play on Detroit. This is a 3% play.

12-05-24 Packers v. Lions UNDER 52 31-34 Loss -110 11 h 54 m Show

Green Bay and Detroit have both gone under in six of their 12 games with one push. The Packers have gone over the total in three of their five road games this season. The Lions have split their six games at home when it comes to the total. Three of the last five meetings have stayed under the total. Detroit won the first game 24-14 with a total of 48.5. The Lions are the second-best defense in the league, allowing only 16.9 points per game. The Packers are 10th (20.0). Detroit is the top third-down defense and second-best red-zone defense while Green Bay is 11th and 20th. These teams also have two of the top five rushing offenses. Green Bay will look to run the ball against a banged up Lions offense and also trying to keep the ball away from the Lions offense. The Lions just love to run the ball down your throat.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 4% play

12-02-24 Browns v. Broncos -6 32-41 Win 100 12 h 38 m Show

These teams' seasons couldn’t be more different. Cleveland finds themselves pretty much out of the postseason race already and has struggled at the Quarterback position. Denver is still in the hunt for a playoff spot and Bo Nix has looked like a real deal at quarterback. Cleveland’s offense leaves a lot to be desired but with Nick Chubb there is always the possibility he has  a big game and break a long run or two. The only problem is he is going against the sixth best run defense and they allow less than a 100 yards a game on the ground. If Cleveland does throw the ball, Denver has shown the ability this season to get to ab=nd put pressure on the quarterback.  Denver is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Browns. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense but Denver counters with one of the best scoring defenses. The Broncos have picked up the scoring. Putting up 33.5 points in their last two games, and 28-or-more in four of their last six efforts. The defense. Bo Nix has proven me wrong this season and I look for him to get the job done once again I am on Denver in this one. 

Play on Denver. This is a 4% play. 

12-01-24 Eagles v. Ravens OVER 50.5 24-19 Loss -110 7 h 46 m Show

Both teams have great running backs. The Eagles Saquon Barkley has the most yards with 1,392 yards while Derrick Henry is right behind him with 1,325 yards. Henry also leads the league with 13 touchdowns. The Eagles also possess two great wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith who should find open space in the porous Ravens secondary. The Ravens do have the second best rush defense but with Barkley running the ball they will have to pay attention to him which will open up the passing game. The Ravens allow 32.8 points per game at home, and an Eagles offense averaging 31.7 points in their last six. The Eagles have consistently scored 25+ points in their past six games. There are just too many playmakers on both teams for the defenses to continually stop them The over is 4-1 when Baltimore has played at home. The over is 3-2 when the total has been 47 points or more for Philadelphia games.

Play on the OVER. This is a 3% play 

12-01-24 Rams -138 v. Saints 21-14 Win 100 7 h 30 m Show

The Rams have a big advantage at the two most important positions, the Head coach and the quarterback. Not only is Matt Stafford a better quarterback than Derek Carr, Stafford has most of his weapons while Carr is missing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The Rams have won two of their last three road games while the Saints have won two of their last three home games. Los Angeles' passing attack, which ranks ninth, will be facing a Saints defense that is giving up more than 255 yards per game. Los Angeles averages 21.2 points per game. The Saints are giving up 23.6 points per game. The Saints average 23.8 points per game while the Rams have given up 25.1 points per game. The Rams should be able to shred the Saints secondary. If the Saints struggle to throw the ball, which I expect them to do, the Rams will be able to load the box and slow down the Saints rushing attack. The Saints are at home but that won’t be enough. Take the Rams.

Play on LA Rams on the moneyline. This is a 4% play

12-01-24 Chargers -1 v. Falcons 17-13 Win 100 4 h 6 m Show

The Chargers have been a covering machine, beating the number in seven of their eleven games, including two of their last three on the road. The Falcons have lost their last two games both straight up and against the number. Atlanta has struggled to get their offense going when playing at home, scoring just 17 points or less in their last three home games. The Chargers defense has excelled on the road, allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. I am looking for a close, low scoring game with the Chargers prevailing in the end. The Chargers have the better defense and I just can't trust Atlanta’s offense at home.

Play on the LA CHARGERS. This is a  4% play

11-29-24 Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 42 17-19 Loss -110 6 h 9 m Show

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders are heading in opposite directions. This is a rivalry gane so anything can happen. These teams played in October with the Chiefs coming away with a 27-20 win. Las Vegas has seen the over go 8 eight times in 11 games this season.  The Raiders have gone over the number in four of their six road games. KC has gone over in six of eleven games. They have gone over in three of their five home games. In the last 10 games between the two the over has hit 7 times. Las Vegas has lost their starting quarterback and new starter Aidan O’Connell is dealing with a thumb injury himself. These two combined for 47 points in their first meeting this season. Las Vegas has averaged 20.5 points over their last five games, and they allowed 32.8 per game in that stretch. The Chiefs have scored 26 or more in five of their last seven games.

Play on the OVER, This is a 4% play.

11-28-24 Bears v. Lions -9.5 20-23 Loss -108 5 h 14 m Show

It wasn’t too long ago when people wanted the Lions off of Thanksgiving viewing. How times have changed. The Lions may be the most complete team at the moment as the can run or pass the ball and their defense is becoming elite. I do remember a 5-0 Lions team in the past that was 5-0…Cut a “Another One bites the dust” video (yes, a long time ago), and then gave up 50+ to the Falcons. This doesn’t seem like that team and everything is going their way. The same can’t be said for the Bears. They look like the Lions of old and are finding new ways of losing games in the end. This should be an easy Lions win and if it is I will be basking in it. I do have mixed emotions and feel this line is just too high on a inter-division rivalry game. The Bears have played better offensively as of late and the defense does have talent. I am taking the points in this one as the Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving Day games. I liked the Bears at 10-10.5 but under 10 I have to go with Detroit.

Play on Detroit, This is a 4% play,

11-25-24 Ravens -2 v. Chargers 30-23 Win 100 12 h 31 m Show

Los Angeles Chargers take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC showdown in Monday Night Football. The Chargers come in at 7-3 overall and in second place in the AFC West.They have been on a roll, having won five of their last six games including four straight games. The Ravens are 7-4 overall and in second place in the AFC North. Baltimore is 2-2 in their last four games. 

The Ravens are putting up 30.4 points per game and they are giving up 24.6 points per game. Baltimore is 5-5-1 against the spread this season. The Chargers blew a 27-6 second half lead before winning 34-27 over Cincinnati last week. Los Angeles is putting up 22 points per game and are giving up 14.5 points per game. The Chargers are 7-3 against the spread this season. 

Baltimore is 3-3 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Chargers did not play well in the second half but escaped with a win. Baltimore should play better against a Chargers defense that is giving up over 200 yards through the air. The Ravens have the second best rush defense. I look for the Ravens to come back and get the win this week.

Play on Baltimore. This is a 3% play.

11-25-24 Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 50.5 30-23 Loss -110 12 h 30 m Show

The Chargers have been an under team this season. The under is 4-1 when the Chargers have played at home and 7-3 overall. The Chargers have the best scoring defense in the league allowing just 14.5 points per game. The Ravens defense is also the second best in stopping the rush. Both offenses have struggled at times and both defenses are very good. I am looking for a lower scoring game in this one. 

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play. 

11-24-24 Eagles -145 v. Rams 37-20 Win 100 11 h 17 m Show

The Philadelphia Eagles take on the Los Angeles Rams in Sunday Night Football. The Eagles are 8-2, while the Rams are 5-5. Philadelphia has won 6 straight and is coming off a huge win over the Washington Commanders. The Eagles  defense has stepped up this season. They rank in the top 6 in points allowed per game this season and gives up the fewest total yards per game. The Rams started the season at 1-4 mainly due to a rash of injuries to key players. They have now won four of their last five and are one game back in the division. The Rams are allowing 24 points a game. Stafford looks healthy and has some weapons back but the Eagles allow just 173 yards through the air. The Eagles will put up enough points to get a road win.

PLay on Philadelphia, on the moneyline. This is a 3% play.

11-24-24 Lions -7.5 v. Colts 24-6 Win 104 5 h 40 m Show

A few years ago the NFL world was once again laughing at the Detroit Lions and the hiring of Dan Campbell. They are not laughing now. They are 9-1,8-2 ATS, with a dynamic offense that can beat you through the air or ran it down your throat on the ground. Their defense has been outstanding even after losing their best defensive player in Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have won eight in a row and in their nine wins they have won by an average of 18 points. They are first in the NFL, putting up 33.5 points a game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 17.7 points a game which is fifth best. The Colts are 5-6 this season but 8-3 ATS. As Stable has been for the Lions, the Colts quarterback situation has been a carousel of  chaos. They have switched quarterbacks it seems on a weekly basis. This season they are putting up 21.5 points a game. The Colts defense has been playing decent, allowing 22.7 points a game. Detroit has played on the road five times this season and is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, They put up 50+ last week and have all the momentum on their side. The Colts snapped a three game losing streak last week, but their QB situation makes them hard to bet on. Indy has the seventh worst pass defense in the league and Goff and the Lions should be able to take advantage of it. The best thing for the Lions is the NFC North is won of the best divisions in football so they can not afford to take any team lightly. I look for another big win from the Lions.

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play

11-24-24 Vikings v. Bears +4 30-27 Win 100 4 h 20 m Show

The Minnesota Vikings are a surprising 8-2 under quarterback Sam Darnold. They will face NFC North rival the Chicago Bears led by Calab Williams. The Bears have lost four in a row with two of those games they should have won. The Vikings are 4-1 on the road this season but this will be their third straight road game. The Vikings are putting up 24 points per game, their defense has been outstanding, allowing 17 points a game. The Bears are 4-2 at home this season. The Bears offense has struggled with any consistency, but they looked better last week with a new OC. They are putting up 19 points per game. Their defense has not been elite this season but they can turn that around at any given time as they have the talent on that side of the ball. The Vikings are 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Vikings played well in Chicago, winning four straight. The Bears have been playing close games only to lose on the last play in two of the last four losses, a caught Hail Mary and a blocked FG. If those two losses were wins we would be talking differently about the Bears. Darnold has shown some signs of regression and if the Bears defense and do something I like the Bears to hang in this one with a chance once again for the win. With the line above three I have to take the Bears.

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11-21-24 Steelers -3.5 v. Browns 19-24 Loss -105 12 h 43 m Show

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Cleveland to take on the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers lead the AFC North with an 8-2 record while the Browns are just 2-8 and are in last place in the division. Pittsburgh has won five straight games and are coming off a big win over the Ravens. The Steelers are 15th in scoring with 23.3 points a game and are eighth in rushing but third worst in passing. On the defensive side, they are the second best scoring defense allowing just 16.2 points a game. Pittsburgh is 8-2 against the spread this season. Jameis Winston has taken over for the injured DeShawn Watson, has thrown for 1,047 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. The Browns have the second worst offense at 16.2 points per game. They rank 20th in passing and have the fourth worst reaching attack. On the defensive end, They are giving up 24.8 points per game which ranks 24th. Cleveland is 3-7 against the spread this season. The Browns are having a disastrous season and if the Steelers can get out quick they may force the Browns to quit as they seemed to do against the Saints last week. Take the Steelers to come away with an easy win and cover,

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11-18-24 Texans -7 v. Cowboys 34-10 Win 100 20 h 22 m Show

In a battle for Texas, the Dallas Cowboys will look to salvage something of their season when they take on the Houston Texans. Houston is leading the AFC South with a 6-4 record but they have lost three of four games. Dallas Cowboys have been a huge disappointment and come in at 3-6 record and have lost four in a row. Despite picking off Jarrod Goff five times and building a 23-7 lead at the half, the Titans failed to score in the second half and allowed Detroit to come back and steal the game as time expired.  C.J. Stroud has thrown for 2,371 yards, with 12 TD's, and six interceptions. They are putting up 22.4 points per game and giving up 22.6 points per game. Dak Prescott is out for the season with an injury. Cooper Rush will make the start under center. He has thrown for 212 yards with one interception. They are putting up 19.7 points a game and I expect that to go lower.  On the defensive side, they are giving up 28.8 points a game. Houston needs this win with a strong performance especially in the second half as Stroud has struggled to close out games. You cannot have much faith in a Cowboy’s offense with either Cooper Rush nor Trey Lance under center. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS this season including 4 in a row. There hasn’t been a home field advantage as the Cowboys have failed to win a game in Big D. With a banged up Dallas o-line and with an aggressive Texans defense, the Texas should be able to name the score in this one. 

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11-17-24 Chiefs v. Bills -2 21-30 Win 100 8 h 34 m Show

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs. They have split the last four matchups between the two teams. The Kansas City Chiefs just do enough and come up with key plays to stay undefeated this season. This team has been the definition of complementary football and both sides of the ball are coming through when needed. Special teams suffered a blow with the injury to Harrison Buckner. Kansas City's defense is 5th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 17.2. The Buffalo Bills have been led by their offense. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,286 yards and 17 touchdowns. As a team, they are putting up 29 points per game. Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid will be sidelined with injuries. On the defensive side, they are giving up just 19.3 points per game. The Kansas City Chiefs have relied on their defense for most of the season. Buffalo is facing injuries in their secondary which could get exploited by the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been cutting close and have lost three straight games against the number. The Blls usually beat the Chiefs in the regular season but the playoffs have been a different sory. Home Field will make the difference in this one. 

Play on Buffalo. This is a 4% play

11-17-24 Falcons +2 v. Broncos 6-38 Loss -105 7 h 13 m Show

The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons meet up in a non-conference matchup. Atlanta lost to the Saints last week as they failed to score in the fourth quarter and their kicker missed three field goals in a three point loss. Atlanta sits top of the NFC South two games ahead of Tampa Bay. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points a game. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,634 yards with 17 TDs and 7 interceptions. Denver looked poised to knock off Kansas City but had their chip shot field goal blocked in the final seconds. Denver is getting it with their defense as they allow just 17.7 points per game this year. Bo Nix has thrown 1,968 yards, with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Atlanta is 5-5 against the spread in 2024, 3-1 while playing on the road and 2-1 after suffering a loss. Denver is 7-3 ATS but only 2-2 at home. The Broncos have lost their last three games against the Falcons. This should be a close game but I like Atlanta to pick up a road win. 

Play on Atlanta. This is a 3% play.

11-17-24 Vikings -6 v. Titans 23-13 Win 100 5 h 2 m Show

The Minnesota Vikings, who are  7-2, and are 2nd in NFC North go on the road to take on the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes in with a 2-7 record and 3rd in AFC South. Minnesota started the season winning the first five games. They proceeded to lose two straight but have now won two in a row, The Vikings defense is second in the league in rushing yards allowed. The Titans have lost four of their previous five games. The Tennessee defense has given up 27 or more points in three of their last four contests. The Titans are 0-4 ATS at home this season and 1-8 ATS overall. The Vikings are three and one on the road this season. Tennessee relies on its running game but are facing one of the top defenses against the run.  Minnesota should be able to move the ball against the Titans defense.

Play on Minnesota. This is a 5% play

11-17-24 Jaguars v. Lions -13.5 6-52 Win 100 5 h 46 m Show

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a disappointing 2-8 this season and it doesn’t get any easier as they face the 8-1 Detroit Lions. Jaxksonvlle has lost three in a row. Things did not get off to a good start as they lost the first four games to start the season. They won two of their next three contests, but have now lost three in a row. Trevor Lawrence will miss Sunday’s game. Mac Jones will get the call for the Jaguars. He has thrown for 139 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. To make matters worse, their top two receivers are both questionable. The Jags defense has been terrible this season, allowing 26.4 points per game. The Lions have not lost since week two. Jared Godd has thrown for 2,080 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine picks, with five of those interceptions coming in last weeks win. The offense is 2nd n scoring at 31.6 points per game. On the defensive side,  Detroit is allowing only 19.0 points per game, which is eighth in the NFL. Jacksonville will be without their quarterback and could be without other key offensive weapons. That will leave Mac Jones on an island against an aggressive Detroit defense. Jacksonvlle has the worst pass defense and Detroit will find success through the ar and on the ground. Detroit has no problem running up the score and I see a lot of points coming from Detroit.

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play.

11-14-24 Commanders v. Eagles -190 18-26 Win 100 11 h 33 m Show

We have a NFC East showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington has started fast and is 7-3 over the first 10 games. Jaydon Daniels has thrown for 2,147 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He has also added 464 yards on the ground. On the defensive side, they are giving up 21.7 points per game which ranks 12th and the rank 14th in yards given up. After a sluggish start, the Eagles have won five in a row and are 7-2 on the season. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 1,976 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Saquon Barkley has rushed for 991 yards and six touchdowns. On the defensive side, they are second in yards per game and fifth in points per game at 17.9. During their winning streak, the Eagles have won by four or more points. Both teams are in playoff position and are battling for the division as well. Daniels is a rookie and this will be his first Thursday night game and it is on the road in Philly. Philly has the edge on the offensive and defensive lines and I look for them to pull out a home win.

Play on Philadelphia on the money line. This is a 3% play.

11-11-24 Dolphins v. Rams OVER 48.5 23-15 Loss -110 11 h 10 m Show

Los Angeles has gotten healthy or at least healthier than normal and they have been playing better. Both teams have big play capabilities and can score quickly. I can see a track meet of a game with both teams scoring quickly and often. Los Angeles is averaging 25.3 points per game. If they do gey in the red-zone, the Dolphins defense is just 15th in red zone efficiency. Tua has been back for two games and even though they lost both it was not do to a lack os scoring. They will be facing a defense that is ranked 30th against the pass. With both teams having big play potential, i Like this game to go over the number.

Play on the over. This is a 4% play.

11-10-24 Lions -178 v. Texans 26-23 Win 100 12 h 43 m Show

Detroit is looking like the best team in the NFC at the moment, posting a 7-1 record and riding a six game winning streak. Jared Goff has thrown for `1,840 yards. David Montgomery and Jammer Gibbs gives the Lions a dynamic 1-2 punch at running back. The Lions defense allows just 18.5 points per game and they have held opponents to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. They also added a pass rusher in Za’Darius Smith to help replace the loss of Hutchinson. Houston is 6-3 on the season and have a 2 game lead in their division. Houston has lost two of their last three after starting the season 5-1. Five of their six wins this year have come by just a single score. CJ Stroud has thrown for 2,139 yards. Houston is giving up 22.2 points per game and have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. Both the  Lions offense and defense has been playing great and with the addition of Smith the defense will only get better.  The Lions have won their last 5 games by an average of 20 points. Houston will be without Nico Collins and Steffon Diggs due to their injuries which will not help Stroud against this defense. Houston could also be without Will Anderson on defense which will only give the Lions more areas to attack. The Lions will let me down at some point this season, I justt don't think it will be today.

Play on Detroiton the moneyline This is a 4% play.

11-10-24 Vikings -6.5 v. Jaguars 12-7 Loss -115 5 h 27 m Show

The Jacksonville Jaguars have started the season a disappointing 2-7 while the Minnesota Vikings are a surprising 6-2. The Vikings have a well balanced offense that can get it done on the ground and through the air. Their defense has been very aggressive, which has enabled them to turn the ball over and give short fields to the offense. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense has been inconsistent this season and could be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Mac Jones will go for the Jaguars if Lawrence can’t. They like to play press man coverage on defense but their secondary has been inconsistent and allows too many deep balls. If the Vikings can keep Darnold protected, Jefferson and Addisson should be able to get big plays downfield. The Jags 31st in pass defense, and last in giving up big plays. The jags are 17th n passing but with a banged up receiving corps and a backup under center, I see them struggling to move the ball more than normal. The Vikings need to win to stay with Lions and they will.

Play on Minnesota. This is a 3% play.

11-10-24 Falcons -3.5 v. Saints 17-20 Loss -108 5 h 60 m Show

Atlanta Falcons go on the road for a big NFC South game against the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons are 6-3 overall and have won five of their last six games. New Orleans is 2-7 overall this season and they have lost seven straight games. The Falcons took the earlier matchup between the teams, coming away with a two point win. The Falcons Kirk COusins has thrown for 2,328 yards with 17 and seven interceptions. Atlanta is putting up 24.6 points per game and giving up 24 points per game. The Saints will look to improve on this season with a new coach after firing Allen after their loss to Carolina last week. The Saints looked explosive after their first two games of the season but have blown themselves up losing seven straight. Derek Carr has thrown for 1,225 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. The Saints are putting up 23 points and allowing 25.4 points per game. If you believe in the New Coach Bump this is your spot. I don’t see how a new coach will make this team better. The Falcons behind Cousins is playing some good football at the moment and have momentum on their side. The Saints traded starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore, weakening a secondary that is ranked 27th in passing yards allowed. The Saints are 27th against the run also and the Falcons have the playmakers to exploit both. The Saints may be without their two best pass catchers which will limit their inconsistent offense. Even with a new coach, I can’t see the Saints matching the Falcons offensive output. 

Play on Atlanta. This is a 4% play.

11-10-24 Patriots v. Bears -5.5 19-3 Loss -120 5 h 43 m Show

The New England Patriots head to Chi-Town to take on the Chicago Bears in a matchup of quarterbacks from this year's draft. The Patriots come in at 2-7 the Bears are 4-4 but should be better. Drake Maye is back in the lineup at quarterback for New England. Maye has been inconsistent, but has shown the ability to move the ball on occasion. The Patriots offense is 30th in points per game and last in yards per game. The Bears have lost two games and you have to wonder if how they lost to Washington two weeks ago had a lingering effect on their loss last week.  The Bears have been inconsistent on offense and a lot of that has to do with the offensive lines inability to block anybody. As bad as the Patriots have been on offense, they are worse when they have to go on the road. The Bears undefeated at home, The Bears average 29.8 points at home and the Patriots will struggle to score on the Bears defense. This s a get right spot for the Bears and they need to do just that as the seat is getting a little hot in Chicago.

Play on Chicago. This is a 3% play

11-07-24 Bengals v. Ravens OVER 52.5 34-35 Win 100 11 h 31 m Show

This game looks like it has points written all over it. On one side you have the number one run offense going up against a dynamic passing game. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against an inconsistent Bengals defense. Baltimore's defense has struggled at times on the defensive side of the ball and gave up 29 points to a bad Cleveland Browns offense a couple of games ago. Baltimore has gone over the number 8 times in 9 games this season. These teams combined for 79 points earlier this season and are a combined 14-4 to the over. I like the over in this game.

Play on the over. This is a 3% play.

11-03-24 Lions -140 v. Packers 24-14 Win 100 8 h 13 m Show

Detroit goes on the road looking to add to their lead in the NFC north when the Lions head to Green Bay to the Packers. The Lions are 6-1 overall and are in first place in the NFC North. The Packers are 6-2 overall and they have won four straight games. The Lions have won five in row and the argument has been made that the are the best team in the NFC. The Lions are coming off a 52-14 win over Tennessee, a game in which six different Lions scored a touchdown. 

Quarterback Jared Goff has thrown for 1,695 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Gibbs has 591 yards on the ground while Montgomery has added 415 yards. They have combined for 13 touchdowns. Aidan Hutchinson was lost for the season but the defense is still playing well. Detroit jas the best scoring offense at 33.4 points per game and surprisingly, the 8th best scoring defense, allowing 19.1 points per game. Detroit is 6-1 against the spread this season and 5-1 as favorites. Green Bay is on a four-game winning streak. The Packers are 3-1 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay needed a late field goal to beat Jacksonville last week to extend their winning streak. During the streak, three of the four wins have come by 5 points or less. 

Starting quarterback Jordan Love hurt his groin and did not play in the second half. He did return to practice on Thursday but in a limited capacity. He’s thrown 1,547 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Green Bay jas the sixth best scoring offense at 27 points per game and the 12th best scoring defense at 21.3 points per game. Green Bay is 4-4 against the spread this season. If Love does play it will be interesting to see how mobile he is. I look for the Lions defense to get after whoever is under center. They miss Hutchinson for sure but the rest of the defense has stepped it up. The two back approach from the Lions should be able to dominate in this game. I think the Green Bay offense will struggle in this game if Love is not close to 100%.. Detroit puts a little more distance between them and their NFC North Rivals. 

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play. 

11-03-24 Lions v. Packers OVER 47.5 24-14 Loss -110 8 h 13 m Show

Detroit’s offense has shown it doesn’t matter who they are facing, they are capable of putting up points against any defense in the league. They are averaging a league-high 33.4 points per game. The over is 3-0 when the total has been set at 49 points or less during Lions’ games. They've gone over in four straight games and two straight against Green Bay. The over is 2-1 when the total has been set at 48 or higher during Packers’ games this year. I know they are playing outdoors and that has been a knock on Goff but the temperature should be warm and even with a slight rain it should help the offense. My only concern is can the Packers score enough to help with a banged up love and or Willis under center. I am going with the over in what looks like a high scoring game.

 

Play on the over. This is a 4% play. 

11-03-24 Commanders -3.5 v. Giants 27-22 Win 100 5 h 53 m Show

The NY football Giants host long-time rival the Washington  Commanders. Washington is 6-2 and is at the top of the division. New York is 2-6  this season. They have lost three in a row and are in last place in the division. Washington won the first matchup between the two this season 21-18, back in week two. Washington had their prayers answered last week when they completed a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to escape with a win over Chicago. The Washington offense is ranked third with 396.3 yards and 29.5 points per game. Daniels has thrown for 1,736 yards with seven TD passes. He has rushed for 424 yards and four TDs. On the defensive side, they are allowing 20.9 points per game, but have given up a combined 22 points in their last two games. The Giants have struggled all season to score points. The Giants have lost four of their last five, scoring just 10.8 points in the losses. Overall, they are putting up 14.6 points per game, which is the second lowest in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 21.9 points a game, but they have allowed at least 26 points in each of the last two games. They do lead the league in sacks, but all that pressure has amounted to just one interception all season. The Giants swept last season SU and ATS, I have a strong feeling Washington will return the favor this season. In the first game, Washington was able to move the ball but had to settle for seven field goals. I expect them to find the endzone on multiple occasions today. Washington’s 6-1-1 ATS record this season while the Giants are 2-5-1. Daniels has gotten a lot better since these teams played in week 2 and is playing with confidence. Washington's defense has been playing better the last couple of weeks while the Giants D has gotten worse Washington rides the momentum from last week and gets a win.

Play on Washington. This is a 4% play. 

10-31-24 Texans +2.5 v. Jets 13-21 Loss -120 11 h 12 m Show

The Houston Texans put their 6-2 record on the line when they take on the 2-6 New York Jets. The Texans are 4-1 in Last Five Games. C.J. Stroud haa thrown for 1,948 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He will be without his top two receivers as Nico Collins is on the IR and Stefon Diggs is out for the season. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 22.8 points per game which is 15th. The Jets have been downright awful and have lost five in a row. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,896 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Pn the defensive side, they are giving up 21.3 points per game which is 11th. This is one of those games when it is over you will be kicking yourself when it is over. A good case can be made against the Texans without their top 2 receivers and the Jets having one of the top rush defenses. But how can you take the Jets with how poor they have been playing. The Jets have relied on their defense but they haven't been able to get the job done when needed. This game will not be easy and may come down to the last drive. I am going with the better quarterdack at the moment and keeping my fingers crossed.

Play on Houston. This is a 3% play.

10-28-24 Giants v. Steelers -5.5 18-26 Win 100 10 h 13 m Show

the New York Giants go on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Giants need to turn things after being out-scored 45-10 in Last Two Games. The Giants are 2-5 this season and have lost two in a row. Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,442 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. On the defensive side, they rank 12th in scoring with 21.3 points per game. The Steelers are 5-2 and are atop the division in a tie with the Ravens. Russell Wilson started la week and the Steelers put up 37 points. On the defensive side, they are second in the NFL at 14.4 points per game. I don’t like laying this many points with a Steelers offense that can look sluggish. Wilson gives them a different dynamic especially in the passing game. New York is allowing 21.3 points per game over their current 1-3 stretch. I do have confidence in the Steelers defense shutting down the Giants offense. 

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10-27-24 Bears v. Commanders 15-18 Loss -110 8 h 5 m Show

The Washington Commanders take on the Chicago Bears. It looked like a matchup of the top two draft picks from the last draft but Jayden Daniels is not expected to go because of injury. Chicago is 4-2 and has won three in a row and are coming off a bye. Washington is a surprising 5-2  to start the season. Chicago has one of the better defenses in the league. They have allowed 18 points or less in their last three games and in five of their six games. They rank fifth in the league in total yards and fourth in scoring at 16.8 points per game. Washington ranks fourth in total yards and tied for first in scoring at 31.1 points per game. I am not sure they can duplicate those numbers with Marcus Mariota under center. The defense also came to play against the Panthers, smothering Carolina and holding them to just seven points and 180 yards, both season lows for the Washington defense. They are is 15th in points allowed at 21.7. 

 

 The Commanders are dealing with injuries and I doubt we see Daniels in this one. No reason to risk him against this defense if not 100%.  Chicago has been playing really well on both sides of the ball and during their winning streak, they have won by an average of 17 points a game.  The Bears are 2-1 ATS in their last three games against the Commanders. Without Daniels, the Bears defense will be the difference.

Play on Chicago. This is a 5% play.

10-27-24 Bills -3 v. Seahawks 31-10 Win 100 8 h 44 m Show

 The Buffalo Bills are  5-2, and 2.5 games ahead of the Dolphins in the division. Seattle is 4-3 and currently leading the NFC West. The Bills are 4th in scoring at 28.4 points per game. the defensive side. They rank 7th in scoring, giving up 19.4.  Seattle has the  #1 passing offense nut the  27th rushing offense. They are 8th in points at 25.7. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 23.4 points per game, ranking 19th. Seattle is terrible against the run and the Nills should be able to exploit this with Allen and their running backs. The Seahawks may also be without their top running back, their top wide receiver, and one of their better CB's for this game. The Bills have covered every time they have won this year. I look for the Bills to pull this one out in the end

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10-27-24 Ravens -8.5 v. Browns 24-29 Loss -105 5 h 40 m Show

The Baltimore Ravens go on the road to face AFC rival the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore is 5-2 and is at the top of the AFC North. Cleveland is at the bottom with a 1-6 record. Baltimore comes into this game riding a four game winning streak. Baltimore’s offense ranks first in points per game, rushing yards per game and 5th in passing. The defense has not been as good. They do rank first against the rush but are last against the pass. It won’t matter in this game as the Browns have no real passing threat. Things have gone from bad to worse for the Browns. Cleveland’s defense ranks 15th in rushing yards allowed, 11th in passing yards allowed.Cleveland’s offense ranks 29th in scoring. Jameis Winston gets the start for the Browns. The Browns traded away Amari Cooper last week so the receiving weapons is a little bare. ting:

The Baltimore Ravens are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games versus the Browns on the road. The Cleveland Browns have a record of 2-5 against the spread this season. The Ravens should eb able to do what they want on offense and I can’t see this sorry Browns team scoring many points if at all.

Play on Baltimore. This is a 4% play..

10-24-24 Vikings -148 v. Rams 20-30 Loss -148 11 h 7 m Show

The Minnesota Vikings look to bounce back from their first defeat of the season when they face the Los Angeles Rams in Thursday night action. The Vikings had their five game winning streak snapped by NFC North rivals the Detroit Lions. Sam Darnold has thrown for 1,370 yards with 12 touchdowns and five picks. The defense is giving up just 17.8 points per game but could not slow down the Lions offense last week. The Los Angeles Rams have been dealing with injuries to top players all season long. Matt Stafford has thrown for 1,392 yards with three touchdowns and four picks. On the defensive side, the Rams are giving up 25.7 points per game. Cooper Kupp is expected to be back in the lineup after being able to fully participate in practice. Even with Kupp back, I find it hard to trust the LA offense against the Vikings defense. The Vikings offense with Donald has been good enough and the defense, outside of Detroit has been elite. Lay the Field goal with the Vikings.

PLay on Minnesota. This is a 4% play.

10-21-24 Chargers -116 v. Cardinals 15-17 Loss -116 12 h 18 m Show

The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Arizona Cardinals in Monday night action. The Chargers are 3-2 and snapped a two game losing streak last week with a win over Denver. Justin Herbert has thrown for 815 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. The defense is giving up just 13.2 points per game. The Cardinals have started out a disappointing 2-4 to start the season. Kyler Murray has thrown for 1,186 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  He has 261 rushing yards and a touchdown. The defense has not been good, allowing 27.2 points per game. The Chargers are the better overall team. The Cardinals offense has been average in losses but their defense has been dreadful week in and week out. The Chargers aren’t fancy but will wear down the Cardinals defense and eek out a win.

Play on LA Chargers, This is a 3% play

10-20-24 Panthers v. Commanders -9 7-40 Win 100 9 h 49 m Show

The Carolina Panthers ake on the Washington Commanders. Carolina is 1-5 this season while Washington is 4-2. The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season, while Washington is 4-1-1. The Panthers defense is banged up and ranked dead last against the run. The Panthers offense is paying better but that is not saying much. The Washington offense should have their way with the Panthers and come away with an easy win.

Play on washingtom. This is a 3% play.

10-20-24 Texans +3 v. Packers 22-24 Win 100 6 h 46 m Show

The Houston Texans come into this game at 5-1, while the Green Bay Packers come in at 4-2. The Houston Texans, currently leading the AFC South with a 5-1 record. C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,577 yards this season. Overall, the offense ranks 6th in yards per game. Houston plays well on both ends of the ball. The Green Bay Packers, are in 4th place in the NFC North with a 4-2 record. Jordan Love has led the Packers' passing attack with 1,131 yards this season. 

The Green Bay Packers rank 25th in the league in opponents' passes per game and will be challenged by Stroud and the Houston offense. The Green Bay Packers are 2-1 against the spread at home this season and  4-2 overall. The Houston Texans put up 23.8 points per game. Houston’s offense will have their chances against a beat up packers defense.

Play on Houston. This is a 4% play.

10-20-24 Lions +1.5 v. Vikings 31-29 Win 100 6 h 46 m Show

The Detroit Lions travel to Minneapolis to take on the Vikings om a clash of of NFC North leaders. The Lions have won three straight games and are 4-1 this season and the Vikings are 5-0. The Vikings have lost seven straight against the spread to the Lions including three straight at home. The Lions have scored 30 points or more in their last three meetings. The Lions are 4-1 ATS this season and have covered both road games this season. They should find success once again against a Vikings defense that has allowed over 30 points in two of their last three games. The loss of Hutchinson will hurt but I expect the Lions to make a move soon. Sam Donarld looked like the Sam Darnold of old last week and I will take Goff and the Lions over Donald anyday.

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play. 

10-20-24 Eagles -3 v. Giants 28-3 Win 100 6 h 45 m Show

 NFC East rivals face off when the Philadelphia Eagles head to New York to take on the Giants. New York is 2-4 on the season while the the Eagles are 3-2 overall. Philadelphia is putting up 21.2 points per game which ranks 18th in the league. They are sixth in rushing and 14th in passing. On defense the defensive side, they rank 14th in scoring at 22.4 points per game. They are 31 against the pass and 16 against the run. The Giants are putting up 16 points which is the worst in the NFL. They rank 18th in passing and 24th in rushing. Their defense has been decent, ranking ninth in points allowed at 20.2. They are 12th against the pass and 15th against the run. The Giants have not won at home this season. New York is 0-3-1 against the spread when they have been underdogs by six points or less on the season. You can’t have a lot of faith in the Giants offense and the Eagles defesne has been decent this season.  The Eagles defense will do enough to pull out the win and cover.

Play on Philadelphia. This is a 3% play.

10-17-24 Broncos -2.5 v. Saints 33-10 Win 100 10 h 1 m Show

Bo Nix is doing his thing under Sean Payton. New Orleans got off to a great but  start of the season but has struggled lately. The Saints should again be without Carr. Rattler struggled to get the team’s two top receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, involved in the passing game. The Broncos defense will lead the way in this one. 

Play on Denver. This is a 3% play.

10-14-24 Bills -115 v. Jets 23-20 Win 100 10 h 45 m Show

The Buffalo Bills head to the Big Apple to take on the NY Jets. Buffalo is 3-2 this season while the Jets are 2-3 an have lost two in a row. This will be the third straight game on the road for Buffalo and they are looking to break a two game losing streak.  They rank 22nd in total offense but are third best in points scored. On the defensive side of the ball. They atr giving up 21.2 points which is 12th in the NFL. The Jets have gotten off to a slow start to the season and it cost coach Robert Salah his job.  Even without Hassan Reddick the defense has been outstanding. They are second in total yards and fifth in points allowed at 17 points per game. They split the two games last season with each team winning at home. Buffalo is 7-3 against the Jets in the last 10 meetings, but they have split the last four games. The Jets could get that “new” coach bump but Rodgers is old and starting to look old. I will take Allen and the Bills in this one,

Play on Buffalo. This is a 4% play.

10-13-24 Falcons -6 v. Panthers 38-20 Win 100 9 h 44 m Show

n a battle of NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons are on the road to take on the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons improved to 3-2 on the year with their second straight win. The Falcons are  6th in passing and just 26th in rushing offense, They are 17th in scoring offense at  22.2 points per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 23 points a game which is 20th. The Panthers are 26th in passing and 19th in rushing offense. Carolina is 29th in the league in scoring offense at 16.6 points per game but are 32nd in scoring defense by allowing 33 points a game. Atlanta’s offense is starting to come around and they should gel even more against the Panthers defense. I look for the offense of Atlanta to have a huge day today both running and passing the ball. The Red-Rocket gave Carolina a lift but it did not last long. Carolina has been awful on both sides of the ball.

Play on Atlanta. This is a 4% play

10-13-24 Texans -6.5 v. Patriots 41-21 Win 100 5 h 19 m Show

The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in an AFC showdown. The Texans are 4-1 and the Patriots are 1-4. Houston has won two in a row while New England has lost four straight. Houston's offense ranks sixth  in total yards, They have the league's top passing attack.   Drake Maye will make his debut as Patriots quarterback. New England is eighth in the league in rushing and ninth in yards per rush, Houston has a balanced offense and should be able to take advantage of the weak Pat’s defense, The Patriots are dealing with multiple injuries to key positions. I look for the Texans to dominate on both sides of the ball in this one. 

Play on Houston. This is a 4% play

10-13-24 Jaguars v. Bears +1.5 16-35 Win 100 2 h 21 m Show

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears meetup on Sunday in London. The Jaguars  are ranked 15th in total offense,  On the defensive side, they are 31st in total defense. They are 30th against the run and 29th against the pass. The Bears head to London riding a two-game winning streak. They are ranked 26th in total offense.  The Bears are last in the league in rushing and 25th in passing. On the defensive side, they are seventh in the NFL in total defense, 22nd against the run and sixth against the pass.. The Jags may be without leading rusher Etienne Jr.. Chicago’s defense has been great this season an the offense is starting to come into shape. Neither can be said about the Jags. I look for the Bears to come out of Chicago with a win.

Play on Chicago, This is a 5% play

10-10-24 49ers v. Seahawks +4 36-24 Loss -115 8 h 29 m Show

The Seattle Seahawks are 3-2 this season but have lost two in a row. The San Francisco 49ers are in the need of a win as they find themselves with a 2-3 record so far this season. All three of the 49ers losses have come by one possession. San Francisco is putting up 25.2 points per game which ranks 10th best while their defense is giving up 21.2 points per game which ranks 12th best.  The Seahawks are putting up 24.4 points per game which ranks 11th best in the NFL. Their defense ranks 18th in the league at 22.8 points a game.  Seattle lost a game they should have won to the Giants. They have the talent to compete with anybody byt has struggled to put everything together at times.  This is going to be a close game but I like San Francisco to pull it out in the end.

Play on Seattle. This is a 3% play.

10-07-24 Saints v. Chiefs -5 13-26 Win 100 14 h 40 m Show

The Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. Kansas City is 4-0 this season and is coming off back-to-back away wins. The Saints are 2-2 this season but have lost back-to-back games. Derek Carr has thrown for six touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Alvin Kamara has rushed for 362 with five touchdowns. The Saints are putting up 31.8 points a game and are giving up 17.5 points a game which ranks sixth. New Orleans is 3-1 against the spread this season and 2-0 as underdogs. The Chiefs have lost their top receiver in Rashid Rice and top running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. The Chiefs are putting up 23 points a game and are giving up 18 points a game ranking seventh best. The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread this season. Even with all their injuries, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes under center. The Saints have slowed down since the first two weeks of the season and defenses have started to figure them out. I like the Chiefs to cover the number in this one.

Play on KC. This is a 3% play.

10-06-24 Packers -3 v. Rams 24-19 Win 100 8 h 34 m Show

The Rams are 1-3 this season and the injuries are starting to be too much to overcome. No matter how great Matthew Stafford can be, it is hard to compete when your offensive line is terrible and instead of throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua, you are throwing to Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington. Also their running game has not been good behind that poot o-line. Jordan Love is back for the Packers and the offense will get only better for the Packer the more reps he gets. The Rams are last in yards per pass and yards per play allowed and are 30th in third-down conversions allowed and 31st in the NFL in total defense. I expect a lot of Josh Jacobs on the ground early to set up the pass and later to secure a Packers win.

Play on Green Bay. This is a 4% play

10-06-24 Panthers v. Bears -3.5 10-36 Win 100 5 h 45 m Show

The Chicago Bears are 6-3-1 against the spread as favorites in their last 10 games at home. The Carolina Panthers have a 3-7 record against the spread in their last 10 games on the road. Calab Williams has been getting better every week and if the offensive line can be better at pass protection, they should be able to take advantage of the Panthers defense. Andy Dalton has played well in two games but they have not faced a defense like the Bears. The Bears rank eighth against the pass. The Bears have won both of their home games this season theTitans and the Rams. The Panthers have the worst scoring defense, allowing 32.3 points per game. Carolina is also 29th against the run. The Bears will look to run the ball to keep pressure off of Williams. I like the Bears at home in this one.

Play on Chicago. This is  a 3% play.

10-06-24 Ravens -124 v. Bengals 41-38 Win 100 5 h 42 m Show

Cincinnati has a potent offense but the Bengals' defense has been a problem. The Bengals have been poor against the pass and run. The Ravens rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry should have plenty of success against the Cincinnati defense. ,In his career against the Bengals, Lamar Jackson has thrown for 1,834 yards, with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions in 10 games. Not only is the defense bad, they are also shorthanded with five players  injured. They will find it hard to slow down Henry, Jackson and the rest of the Raven offense. I like Baltimore to win and cover on the road.

 

Play on Baltimore on the moneyline. This is a 4% play. 

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