Stephen Nover College Football Picks Archive

Notre Dame hasn't lost since Week 2. The Irish have gone 13-0 SU, 12-1 ATS. It's rare to find such a public team as Notre Dame being so mispriced and undervalued week after week. I find that once again to be the case in this title game matchup with Ohio State favored by too many points.

Ohio State has looked fantastic in the playoffs since getting upset by Michigan. The Buckeyes have rolled over Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. They've built quite a betting bandwagon by accomplishing that. But I don't see them doing that to Notre Dame.

The two teams had three common opponents - Indiana, Penn State and Purdue. Both went 3-0 SU and ATS against those foes. Ohio State's winning margin was 25 points against those three schools. Notre Dame's winning percentage versus them was 24 points.

I consider the quarterback close to even along with the offensive and defensive lines. Ohio State has the better skill position talent, but Notre Dame has the edge in special teams and coaching.

The turnover margin is heavily in Notre Dame's favor. The Irish are plus 17 in takeaways/giveaways while the Buckeyes are plus 5.

These are the two best defenses in the country with the numbers to prove it.

Ohio State gave up the fewest points, total yards, yards per play and also was No. 1 in pass defense. Oregon was the only team to score more than 17 points on the Buckeyes. Ohio State has permitted an average of only 13 points during its last nine games, while going against Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Penn State during this span. 

Notre Dame's offensive line has been banged-up. The Buckeyes have two potential first-round choices in their defensive line with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Irish have the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation. They rank 12th in pass defense and have 19 takeaways, which was the fifth-highest. Benjamin Morrison is in the discussion for best cornerback in college football. 

Notre Dame has given up 14 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.

Neither quarterback, Will Howard nor Riley Leonard, is a downfield gunslinging threat.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

I want the Big Ten team with motivation and a strong defense against a mediocre ACC team in what was a down season in the ACC.

So I'm landing on Nebraska for this Pinstripe Bowl matchup. The oddsmaker agrees, making the Cornhuskers a solid favorite.

The Cornhuskers haven't been to a bowl game since 2016. This game is being played at Yankee Stadium. Nebraska is excited and will have strong fan support.

Nebraska went 6-6, including victories against Colorado and Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers, though, lost five games by one score. One of those narrow losses was by four points to Ohio State. I consider the Big Ten to be vastly better than the ACC this season.

Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola showed promise this season. The Cornhuskers ranked 17th in scoring defense and 17th in fewest yards. They were 11th in run defense.

Boston College, by contrast, ranked 90th in yards gained and were 110th in pass defense.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

Warm-weather SMU catches a bit of a weather break in that there won't be snow. But the Mustangs are going to have to deal with temperatures in the teens and a sold-out Beaver Stadium.

I don't see SMU staying within single-digits of Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have a better roster than SMU and their Big Ten Conference was far superior to the Atlantic Coast Conference. It was an extremely down year in the ACC.

The Mustangs didn't beat any team of note. If you remove the lower-tier ACC teams and non-conference foes they played, the Mustangs gave up 30 points a game. Penn State has an excellent QB, Drew Allard, and a deep crop of skill position talent.

No, the Nittany Lions aren't in the same class of Ohio State and Oregon. But they are at that next level, which is a tier above SMU.

The Mustangs have some firepower. However, the defensive gap between these two teams is wide. Throw in that Penn State is playing at home in weather they are used to and SMU isn't and you have a double-digit Nittany Lions victory.

Indiana averages 43.3 points a game, which is the second-highest in the country. Only Oregon was better in the Big Ten Conference on third downs. The Hooisers had just eight turnovers all season, third-fewest in the nation.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is an offensive guru. He has the right quarterback to operate his system in Kurtis Rourke, a rhythm passer who has five good receiving targets.

I have a red flag about Notre Dame's defense after the Irish surrendered 35 points, 559 yards and 29 first downs to USC in a 49-35 victory in their last game. USC QB Jayden Maiava had a big game with 360 yards passing and three TD throws against the Irish. I like Rourke more than Maiava.

But Notre Dame is favored for good reason. The Irish have a balanced attack. They have a physical offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage against Indiana's defensive front. Cignetti isn't going to sell out to stop the run like he did against Ohio State. That turned out to be a disaster in a 38-15 road loss to the Buckeyes. Indiana just doesn't have a strong enough defense to control Notre Dame.

I'm going to ride a hot Ohio team here. The Bobcats have won and covered each of their last six games with all six matchups being blowout victories.

The Bobcats have also won their last four bowl games. They destroyed Miami of Ohio, 38-3, in the Mid-American Conference title game. Miami of Ohio has a better defense than Jacksonville State.

Ohio QB Parker Navarro accounted for four touchdowns against Miami of Ohio. But the biggest factor why I the Bobcats is because of the gap in defenses particularly the run defenses.

The Bobcats give up fewer than 18 points a game. They rank eighth in fewest yards and are fifth in rush defense. Jacksonville State can't pass. The Gamecocks are heavily run-oriented.

Ohio is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Jacksonville State is 95th in run defense.

Some of the luster of Jacksonville State's 52-12 win against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game is gone after Western Kentucky lost, 27-17, to James Madison on Wednesday in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Losing star players to opt outs and the transfer portal is a sad reality to handicapping bowl games nowadays.

In the case of West Virginia in this Frisco Bowl that also means a coaching change as Neal Brown was fired. Rich Rodriguez will take over next season. That leaves Chad Scott as the interim coach for this game. He's the Mountaineers' offensive coordinator.

The Mountaineers' transfer portal losses mainly came on defense. They will be short on cornerbacks and won't have their star linebacker, Josiah Trotter. Even with a full deck on defense, West Virginia gave up more than 36 points a game during their past six games.

Memphis certainly has the offense to take advantage behind four-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 102 touchdowns during his career. West Virginia ranks eighth-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

I don't trust Memphis' defense, though. The Tigers surrendered 56 points to Navy, 44 to North Texas and 44 to Texas San Antonio. They rank 115th in pass defense.

West Virginia has scored at least 31 points in four of its last five games.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

Dabo Swinney has had some great Clemson teams. This isn't one of them.

I have SMU as being the superior team. So I'm backing the Mustangs here.

I'm not keen on Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and the Tigers' best running back, Phil Mafah, is banged-up.

SMU's defense gives up nearly a yard fewer per play than Clemson's. The Mustangs have a top-20 defense, 37 sacks and rank fourth in run defense. The Tigers can't match those defensive numbers.

Only four teams averaged more points per game than the Mustangs' 39.2. Clemson is not one of those teams.

The Tigers' defensive strength is takeaways. They ranked 11th in the country with 23. SMU QB Kevin Jennings, though, has thrown just seven interceptions all season. He can attack a mediocre Clemson secondary and his running backs can pick up chunks of yards against the Tigers' 72nd-ranked run defense.

I've been following and covering UNLV football for 40 years and I haven't seen a better coaching job than what Barry Odom has done with the Rebels this season. Huge kudos to him.

However, I don't see the Rebels staying within a field goal of Boise State. They couldn't do it when they hosted the Broncos losing, 29- 24. Boise State didn't play that well either and Ashton Jeanty was somewhat held in check.

Now the Broncos are home with motivation this being the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State buried the Rebels, 44- 20, in last year's Mountain West title game, which was played in Las Vegas.

The only team to beat Boise State this season is top-ranked Oregon, which defeated the Broncos by three points in Oregon. Boise State is unbeaten at home winning by an average margin of 25 points.

UNLV relies on a strong ground attack and opportunistic defense. Boise State, though, ranks 17th in run defense and has committed only eight turnovers, seventh-fewest in the nation.

I trust Tulane with the American Athletic Conference championship game at stake. The Green Wave are making their third consecutive AAC title game appearance. They had won 17 straight ACC games until getting upset by Memphis last week at home. The Green Wave may have been looking ahead to this title game in that loss to Memphis knowing they already had their championship game appearance punched.

Tulane was 9-2 ATS going into that Memphis game. The Green Wave have covered five of their six road games. They have one of the best running backs in the country, Makhi Hughes, and the 15th-ranked scoring defense. Their coach, Jon Sumrall, has experience stopping run-option offenses such as Army's.

Army's offense is regressing, averaging only 19.2 points in its last four games. I don't trust the Black Knights either in this step-up spot. They were destroyed by Notre Dame, 49-14, two weeks ago. That was the only time they were taking more than a field goal. Their schedule has been extremely weak.

Hawaii is 4-7 and was destroyed by Utah State, 55-10, in its last game. This is a nothing game for the Rainbow Warriors.

New Mexico has bowl aspirations. A win here makes the Lobos bowl eligible. New Mexico has come on winning five of its last seven games.

Hawaii quarterback John-Keawe Sagapolutele is dealing with a knee injury. So he might not play. His replacement is freshman Micah Alejado.

The Rainbow Warriors have a below average run defense and only six takeaways. They have to deal with New Mexico's excellent dual threat quarterback, Devon Dampier. He's rushed for 1,065 yards and 16 touchdowns while passing for another 12 touchdowns.

The Lobos buried the Rainbow Warriors, 42-21, last year.

Not only is this a rivalry game, but the stakes are huge because the winner becomes bowl eligible while the season is finished for the loser. That should provide for maximum intensity.

This is the lowest total on a Virginia game all season. It's justified. The Cavaliers' attack has regressed. Virginia is averaging 14.7 points in its last four games.

Virginia Tech has quarterback issues. Because of injuries to Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee, the Hokies could be forced to start third-string freshman Pop Watson. That would mark Watson's first college start. He was not accurate passing when forced into action in last week's road loss to Duke.

The Hokies' best weapon could be Peter Moore, who is one the best punters in the country.

This is a real old-fashioned rivalry game. The point spread has never been this high since 1978. The road team has covered four of the past five times in the series.

Nevada will be sky high for this game. The key, of course, is can the Wolf Pack stay within this number?

UNLV is ranked 21st. Nevada has played two top-12 teams in SMU and Boise State. The Wolf Pack lost by five points to SMU and fell by seven points to Boise State on the road two weeks ago.

The Rebels have a strong ground attack ranking eighth in the country. So look for the Wolf Pack to load the box against UNLV since the Rebels rank 117th in passing. Nevada's pass defense ranks 42nd. The Wolf Pack also are one of the best red zone teams in the nation converting on 28-of-36 chances for 77.8 percent.

The Wolf Pack hung with SMU and Boise State. They can hang with their most hated rival.

Luke Fickell has lost the Badgers in just his second season as head coach of Wisconsin.

The Badgers have lost four in a row with three of those defeats coming by blowouts, including last week's embarrassing, 44-25, road loss to Nebraska. That was the most points Nebraska has scored all season.

Minnesota is 4-2 in its last six games. The Gophers nearly upset Penn State last week, losing, 26-25, as 11 1/2-point 'dogs.

The Gophers are coming on while the Badgers have regressed plagued by a demoralized defense and a bad quarterback without their traditional elite ground attack to rely on. That's all on Fickell.

I'll gladly accept this many points in a long-standing rivalry, coin flip matchup that USC-UCLA is. 

UCLA has covered six of its last eight games. The Trojans have already lost four times as favorites falling to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland Washington. 

The season has been disappointing for both teams. The Bruins, though, have the confidence of having not just home field advantage but having rolled past USC, 38-20, last year. UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers had one of his finest games in that victory throwing three TD passes. 

The strength of UCLA, however, is its run defense, which ranks eighth in the country. The Trojans rely on 1,000-yard rusher Woody Marks. Look for the Bruins to bottle up Marks like they did against Iowa's star running back Kaleb Johnson, who they held to 49 yards on 18 carries, two weeks ago. 

Not helping matters for USC is a flu outbreak that has hit its team. 

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson. 

Arkansas State is a bad defensive team. UL-Monroe, however, is heavily ground-oriented and  plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

The Warhawks rank fourth-from-the-bottom in passing. If you discount a 38-point performance against a horrendous 1-9 Southern Mississippi team, Monroe is averaging 15.4 points in its last seven games.

Arkansas State has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last eight games. Monroe ranks 23rd in pass defense.

Heavy wind, slow tempo and bad offenses all put me on the Under.

The forecast is for a chance of rain with winds gusting in the 16-22 mph range.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace. Michigan State plays especially slow.

Neither team has explosive playmakers. Purdue is averaging a puny 7.5 points in its last four games. Michigan State has been held under 20 points in six of its last seven games.

The total has been bet down in this important SEC matchup and for good reason. The defenses are better than the offenses.

Tennessee gives up the fifth-fewest yards and points per game in the nation. The Volunteers' front seven is in the argument for best in the country.

Georgia's ground game is down from past seasons and QB Carson Beck has noticeably regressed. Beck has been picked off nine times in the last four games and has 12 interceptions on the season.

The Bulldogs give up 18.4 points a game, which ranks 17th in the country. Georgia also is 13th in defensive total yards.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been inconsistent and is not 100 percent healthy. Iamaleava has surpassed 200 yards passing in just three of nine games. The Volunteers' offensive line commits a lot of penalties and is not good in pass protection.

So this figures to be a conservative game with each team relying on their defense to pull it out.

Both teams own losing records. But there's a difference. Houston is 3-1 in its last four games and has pulled upsets in its last two games beating Kansas State and Utah. Arizona has lost and failed to cover its past five games.

The Cougars have momentum and confidence. Arizona doesn't. Houston also has found the right quarterback.

Zeon Chriss has sparked the Cougars since replacing Donovan Smith halfway through a 30-19 victory against TCU four games ago. Chriss sets up the pass because he's such an effective runner. He's made the Cougars' offense much better than their season statistics look like.

Arizona surrenders nearly 170 yards on the ground, fourth-worst in the Big 12. The Wildcats have lost three key defenders due to injuries.

The Wildcats have a superstar wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, but their quarterback play and coaching have been a disappointment. Since the second week of the season, the Wildcats are averaging only 17.2 points a game. Houston surrenders the 23rd-fewest yards per game in the nation.

This is a Friday night game, but attendance at Arizona could be down for this football game because its basketball team has a marquee game against Wisconsin that starts about 75 minutes before kickoff.

Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan on the road by 24 points last season. I expect the Falcons to win by double-digits hosting Western Michigan this season. 

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities. I trust Bowling Green's defense far more than the Broncos' defense, though.

The Falcons have scored 27 or more points in six of their nine games. They have one of the MAC's most talented running backs in Terion Stewart.

Western Michigan gives up an average of 34.7 points a game and ranks 124th in the metric of defensive success rate allowed. 

After playing Kentucky and Alabama, Tennessee steps way down in class taking on Mississippi State. There isn't a worst defense in the SEC.

How bad are the Bulldogs' defensively? They are giving up 42.6 points in five SEC games. They rank 129th out of 134 teams in yards allowed and they are the second-worst in the country in stop rate, a metric that is the percentage of defensive drives ending in a put, turnover, or turnover on downs.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is coming off a strong game against Kentucky completing 28 of 38 throws for 292 yards and a touchdown. The Volunteers rank 12th in scoring averaging 38.1 points a game. Iamaleava should have plenty of time to scan the field since the Bulldogs have only two sacks in their five SEC matchups.

Mississippi State should contribute its share to this total going Over. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards in SEC play while converting their third downs at close to a 40 percent rate. Michael Van Buren Jr. will be making his sixth consecutive start since replacing injured Blake Shapen in mid-September.

The Bulldogs are averaging 31.2 points in their last four games. They put up 31 points on Georgia.

Sure there figures to be plenty of points scored here. I just don't see Texas Tech and its quarterback, Behren Morton, keeping up with Colorado and its Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback, Shedeur Sanders.

And Sanders isn't even the best player on the Buffaloes. That honor goes to two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who dominates at wide receiver and in the secondary.

Colorado's defense has an athletic secondary led by Hunter and a good pass rush. Texas Tech doesn't offer that. The Red Raiders rank second-to-last in the nation in pass defense and are 130th in total defense. They are last in the Big 12, too, with only 11 sacks. Sanders should feast, throwing to Hunter and LaJohntay Wester among his deep receiving corps.  

The Buffaloes were idle last week. Not so with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders went into Ames, Iowa and upset Iowa State, 23-22, as 13 1/2-point road underdogs. That made the 6-3 Red Raiders bowl eligible and could mean a letdown for this game.

Morton didn't have a good game against Iowa State completing a season-low 52.5 percent of his passes while being intercepted twice. The Red Raiders have a top running back, Tahj Brooks. But he won't be enough to elevate Texas Tech past ascending Colorado, which is 5-1 in its last six games.

After jumping out to a 6-0 start, Navy has regressed. The Midshipmen are looking like frauds now after losing to Notre Dame, 51-14, and to Rice, 24-10, last week. Some of Navy's problems can be related to quarterback Blake Horvath trying to play through a hand/thumb injury. He's looked terrible during this time span.

Navy isn't taking opponents by surprise anymore either as foes have plenty of film on Navy's unique option style attack.

South Florida, by contrast, has picked up its game. The Bulls beat UAB and Florida Atlantic by double-digits in their last two games. They have a much better run defense than pass defense and can key on the run knowing Horvath isn't 100 percent.

This total is too short considering how fast these teams play and their current form.

East Carolina's last three games have averaged a total of 80.6 points being scored. 

Florida Atlantic has had at least 58 combined points scored during its last five games vs. FBS opponents. Florida Atlantic just surrendered 44 points to South Florida, who was playing without its starting QB. The Owls gave up 526 yards, including 320 rushing yards, in that loss to the Owls.

East Carolina yielded 34 points and 405 yards to Temple in its last game while scoring 54 points. Temple is a bottom tier offense averaging fewer than 21 points a game, while ranking 119th in total yards.

Hawaii can prove tough at home given its built-in travel advantage.
 
But when it comes to playing on the mainland, the Rainbow Warriors clearly are fade material. Hawaii is 1-14 in its last 15 road games, including 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Only once in their past eight away games have the Rainbow Warriors managed to cover the spread.

I don't see them doing it here against Fresno State. 

The teams last met two seasons ago in Fresno. The Bulldogs won, 55-13. Things have changed since then with Jeff Tedford no longer  Fresno State's coach. He resigned before this season due to health concerns. Tom Skipper is the interim coach and the Bulldogs have picked up their pace.

Fresno State has defeated San Jose State and Nevada during the past two weeks to move its record to 5-3. Mikey Keene was 30-of-41 passing while throwing for three touchdowns and 275 yards against San Jose State last week, his best game of the season. Keene has the receiving depth to exploit Hawaii's 73rd-ranked pass defense.

I don't expect Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to match Keene and Fresno State's offense. The Rainbow Warriors average only 21.5 points, which ranks them 110th. They are 123rd in rushing and 103rd in yards per game. 

The Bulldogs force an average of two turnovers a game and rank among the top-10 in interceptions. Hawaii, by contrast, has only four takeaways. 

These are two of the weaker defenses in the ACC. Stanford gives up 31.5 points a game, which ranks 108th in scoring defense. North Carolina State allows 31.1 points per game, which is 105th.

Both Stanford and Clemson have enough playmakers to take advantage of these below par defenses. Cardinal wide receiver Elic Anyomanor is one of the most talented pass catchers in the country. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a dual threat, who has completed 62.2 percent of his passes and leads the team in rushing.

Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey is getting better each week since replacing injured Grayson McCall. Bailey has thrown for more than 300 yards each of the last two games and has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stanford ranks 123rd in pass defense.

Memphis QB Seth Henigan holds the school record for touchdown passes with 91. Henigan should face little difficulty adding to that total against a Texas San-Antonio secondary that ranks 125th in pass defense.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 46-45 road loss to Tulsa. Making that defeat so bad for UTSA is it blew a 35-7 halftime lead!

Memphis is surrendering an average of 36 points during its past two games playing UNC Charlotte and North Texas.

Neither defense can be trusted. This game also is on a fast track being played indoors at the Alamodome.

Mississippi is getting too much respect here. The Rebels had an easy first four games, which has skewed their season-long numbers. They are 1-3 ATS during their past four games, which include upset losses to LSU and Kentucky and unimpressive non-cover against a down-in-the-dumps Oklahoma, 26-14, as a 19-point home favorite last week.

The Rebels are averaging just 21.5 points in their last four games.

Oh, yeah, the Rebels haven't won in Fayetteville in 16 years.

Only six teams have produced more yards per game than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have outgained foes by more than 133 yards per game as QB Taylen Green gets better each week.

Anytime the better team is taking points, I'm interested in the underdog. That's the case here.

Hawaii has a very weak offense. The Rainbow Warriors rank 117th in scoring at 19.7 points and are 105th in total yards. Their average per game shrinks to just 13.4 points if you count just the five FBS opponents they have played.

Hawaii is favored because of home field and Nevada likely not having injured starting QB Brendon Lewis. However, the Wolf Pack could benefit from using backup QB A.J. Bianco, who is a better passer than Lewis. Hawaii only has three takeaways.

One of the best below-the-radar coaching jobs being turned in this season is by UL-Monroe's first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. This isn't the Warhawks of 2023, who finished last year losing their final 10 games.

Vincent has Monroe off to a 5-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. This includes a 21-19 victory against James Madison as a 19-point 'dog. The Warhawks' only loss was 51-3 to fifth-ranked Texas. That loss has skewed the Warhawks' overall statistics.

South Alabama is the opposite. The 3-4 Jaguars haven't beaten a quality team. Their statistics are artificially high because of an 87-10 victory against Northwestern State, an 0-8 team that plays in the FCS Southland Conference.

The lone time South Alabama stepped up this season was when it played LSU. The Jaguars lost, 42-10, and gave up 677 yards to the Tigers.

Monroe has surrendered more than 300 yards to just one other team besides Texas. The Warhawks have a stout defense, one of the Sun Belt Conference's top running backs in Ahmad Hardy and have an improving quarterback, redshirt freshman Aidan Armenta.

Temple was an auto-fade early in the season. But the Owls have turned things around covering four of their last five games.

The key to the Owls' turnaround is the return to health of Evan Simon. He had a 122.3 passer rating in leading the Owls to a 20-10 win against Tulsa last week. Simons has completed 65 percent of his passes and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Mainly my involvement in this matchup is to fade East Carolina. The Pirates have lost four of their past five games. They can't stop the run, nor run the ball effectively. East Carolina ranks 96th in total yards and 97th in scoring defense.

Iowa still has its great defense. Only this season the Hawkeyes can actually produce points. 

The Hawkeyes have scored 31 or more points in four of their six games. They just put up 40 points against Washington last Saturday. 

Michigan State can't match the Hawkeyes in the trenches. The Spartans are down after being buried by Oregon and Ohio State during their past two games.

The Spartans are turnover-prone committing 14. Their quarterback, Aiden Chiles, has been intercepted nine times. 

The Hawkeyes have a top-10 running back in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa also rates a strong special teams edge. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a strong history when favored by 6 1/2 points or fewer going 37-23 ATS. His Hawkeyes also have covered 78 percent the past 23 times as a road favorite against fellow Big Ten teams. 

Navy has gone Over in all five of its games this season. No surprise since the Midshipmen have scored at least 34 points in every one of their games. The Midshipmen rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense and 16th in total offense.

Charlotte ranks 119th in yards allowed per game. The 49ers give up 31.7 points a game, which ranks 111th.

The 49ers' offense is off their best game producing 55 points against East Carolina two weeks ago. The 49ers had their bye this week so they should have a few new wrinkles to throw at Navy.

Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten Conference in a down year for the Big Ten.

But the Boilermakers are better after making a quarterback switch to redshirt freshman Ryan Browne and they draw Oregon at home while the Ducks are dealing with a huge situational disadvantage.

So getting four touchdowns with the Boilermakers is enough for me to get involved.

The Ducks moved to No. 2 in the country in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings after upsetting Ohio State at home, 32-31, at home. Now, six days later, the Ducks are back in action after traveling three time zones losing two days of practice time because of the Friday start. It's going to be difficult for the Ducks to get highly motivated for this matchup after their thrilling, emotional win against the Buckeyes.

This is by far Oregon's longest road trip of the season. The Ducks' other road games were flying to Los Angeles to play UCLA and a less-than-an-hour drive to face in-state rival Oregon State.

Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones have covered just 31 percent of the time in 13 instances this season.

Yes, Oregon holds a monster talent edge. Browne, though, is a huge upgrade on a disappointing Hudson Card. Browne accounted for 415 total yards in a 50-49 loss to Illinois last week. Purdue averaged 9.2 yards per play against a respectable Illinois defense.

Oregon State is 4-1. Nevada is 2-4. But don't be fooled by that. These teams are remarkably even. Nevada is home and getting points so I'm on the Wolf Pack.

Nevada is 4-2 ATS and has played a tougher schedule than the Beavers. The Wolf Pack ranks 36th rushing and is above average in stopping the run. Oregon State is run-oriented.

It's not a great situational spot for the Beavers as they are off a 39-31 overtime victory against Colorado State. Oregon State allowed the Rams to pick up 6.4 yards a play.

You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time Mississippi beat LSU at Tiger Stadium. I don't see that streak ending here.

LSU is off a bye and has a very strong passing attack. LSU coach Brian Kelly is 10-2 the past dozen times following a bye.

Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier ranks fifth in the country in passing yards. He's completed 69.8 percent of his throws while throwing 15 TD's in five games.

Mississippi's defensive strength is run defense. The Rebels are just average against the pass. They haven't faced a foe nearly as strong as LSU.

Sure this is a very high total. But it's totally justified. The two teams played last season and Texas State won, 77-31. The Bobcats ran up the score, too, in that one. So neither of these teams is going to let up no matter what the score is. 

Texas State is all about scoring under offensive mastermind G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats are averaging 37.6 points a game. The Over has cashed in four of their five games.

Arkansas State has a porous defense ranking 120th in total defense. The Red Wolves, though, have a big-time wide receiver in Corey Rucker. They can do their part to get this total Over against a pedestrian Texas State defense. 

The good news is we have a Big Ten game today. The bad news is it's between two mediocre teams.

I don't think 3-2 Maryland is double-digits better than 2-3 Northwestern, so I'm on the underdog.  

I also don't think Michigan State is very good and Maryland lost at home to the Spartans. 

Northwestern has a respectable defense ranking 44th in scoring defense giving up fewer than 21 points a game and is 18th in run defense. The Wildcats have weak offensive numbers, but that is starting to change with improvement from QB Jack Lausch. 

The Terrapins allow more points per game than Northwestern and rank 121st in pass defense. 

James Madison was upset, 21-19, by UL Monroe in its last game as a 17-point road favorite. I believe the Dukes, though, are much more like the powerhouse they were during the previous two games when they scored 63 points on Ball State and 70 points against North Carolina.

Alonza Barnett is an outstanding dual threat QB. Coastal Carolina is a sloppy tackling team that ranks 116th in rum defense and 98th in scoring defense and total defense. This was against weak competition, too.  

The Dukes are going to get their points. The key is can Coastal Carolina do its share of scoring? I believe the Chanticleers can. James Madison has faced four weak offenses in its five games. North Carolina put up 50 points against the Dukes.

Coastal Carolina has put up at least 40 points in three of its five games. The Chanticleers just put up 45 points against a respectable Old Dominion defense last week.

My sympathies go out to the people affected by Hurricane Helene. One of the cities hit by that horrible hurricane was Boone, which is home to Appalachian State.

The hurricane caused the Mountaineers' game against Liberty last week to be called off. This will be Appalachian State's first game in 16 days. Football hasn't been a priority for the Mountaineers during this time span.

"We're very fortunate that we get to play this game of football that we love," Appalachian State coach Shawn Clark was quoted as saying. "Football is important, but it's not the most important thing right now. ..."

Appalachian State has had good teams in the past. But not this year. The Mountaineers were destroyed in the two games they stepped up in class, losing to Clemson, 66-20, and to South Alabama, 48-14, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite in their last game.

Marshall is a solid team that has covered all four of its games. The Thundering Herd are battle tested having faced Virginia Tech and Ohio State. Marshall ranks 33rd in pass defense and 35th in run defense. The Thundering Herd have taken good care of the football, losing the ball just twice. South Alabama ran for 320 yards against Appalachian State.

The Mountaineers may be glad to be leaving their area temporarily, but they haven't won at Marshall since 1995.

This isn't the good Troy teams of past years. The Trojans lost a lot of quality players from last season. They are 1-4 with their lone win coming against Florida A&M.

The Trojans average just 21.4 points a game. They don't have the firepower, nor defense, to keep up with high-scoring Texas State. Troy only has one defensive takeaway, too, so turnovers shouldn't be a problem for Texas State.

The Bobcats have Jordan McCloud, who I consider to be the best QB in the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a tremendous offensive-minded coach in GJ Kinne.

No way, though, does Texas State take the Trojans lightly. Not after the Bobcats blew a 22-0 lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State last week. I see the far more talented Bobcats taking out their frustrations on the hapless Trojans.

This game has been bet up. I agree with the line movement. I see New Mexico beating New Mexico State by double-digits in the Rio Grande Rivalry.

New Mexico State is 1-3. New Mexico is 0-4. However, the Lobos have played a far tough schedule going against Montana State, Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.

The Lobos are showing improvement. The Aggies have shown regression in losing their last three games.

New Mexico produced 485 yards against Fresno State last week. But the Lobos were done in by a negative 3 turnover margin.

New Mexico State can't stop the run, nor pass the ball. The Aggies have had fewer than 75 passing yards in three of their four games. They were gashed on the ground by Sam Houston last week giving up 280 yards rushing. The Aggies have permitted more than 200 yards rushing in each of their last three games. New Mexico has the running backs to take advantage.

Bowling Green distinguished itself well in one-score road losses to Texas A&M and Penn State during its last two games. Now the Falcons get to celebrate homecoming weekend hosting Old Dominion.

It's a step down for Bowling Green. It also leads to a letdown and perhaps concentration lapses for the Falcons.

Old Dominion is a feisty road underdog. The Monarchs are 9-3 ATS (75%) in that role the past two plus seasons under steady coach Ricky Rahne. One of these road covers was this season against South Carolina. The Monarchs lost by four points as 20 1/2-point 'dogs. South Carolina went on to whip Kentucky by 25 points. Kentucky lost to second-ranked Georgia by one point.

The Monarchs should be able to have success on the ground against Bowling Green, which also will keep the clock moving.

Quarterback Matthew Sluka leaving the UNLV program because of a money dispute was the No. 1 college football story of the week. It's caused a drop in the betting line.

But I still believe UNLV is the right side. Barry Odom is a tremendous coach, maybe the best in Rebels football history. He's kept the Rebels together. I see the team rallying around their new QB, Hajj-Malik Williams. The Rebels have had good practices this week.

Williams is the career passing leader in yardage and touchdowns at Campbell, an FCS school. Sluka was a gutty runner, who sparked the Rebels to an upset road victory against Kansas. But Williams is the better passer. The Rebels rank 127th in passing.

Fresno State is a worthy opponent. Note, though, winless New Mexico put up 485 yards of offense against the Bulldogs last week. The Rebels have the situational edge being home and off a bye.

UNLV's defense ranks 23rd in scoring defense, 31st in run defense and 35th in total defense.

Eastern Michigan plays at a slow pace and ranks 103rd in yardage. The Eagles are far from explosive.

Don't expect any explosion from Kent State either. The Golden Flashes rank last in yards and second-to-last in points averaging 10.3.

Kent State is down to third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski because of injuries. Because of this the Golden Flashes are going to have to rely on an ineffective ground attack that averages a puny 1.67 yards on the ground. They won't be playing fast either.

There is little doubt about Toledo's offense. The Rockets have produced 49 points against Duquesne, 38 points vs. UMass and then 41 points and 454 yards against Mississippi State last week. Doing that against an SEC opponent on the road is impressive. 

Rockets QB Tucker Gleason has thrown for 662 yards and has a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. 

But some have doubts about Western Kentucky's quarterback situation after TJ Finley suffered a leg injury. He'll be out for this game. Sophomore Caden Veltkamp will replace him.

I'm not one of those who have doubts that the Hilltoppers will put up a lot of points with the quarterback change. They have a quarterback-friendly system that has produced an average of 40 points in their last two games against Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. A shutout loss to Alabama opening week skews Western Kentucky's overall offensive numbers.

Veltkamp has a career mark of throwing for 821 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. 

OK, so Michigan isn't going to win the national championship. The Wolverines are down from last year, but not down enough where they can't beat USC at home.

USC isn't top-ranked Texas.

I'm not sold on the Trojans just because they beat defensively-challenged LSU. USC happens to be 1-7 ATS the past eight times when laying points on the road against a ranked opponent.

The Wolverines can run the ball with Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, two of the better running backs in the Big Ten. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore also made the right decision to make a quarterback change to Alex Orji, who can both run and pass.

USC ranked 117th in run defense last year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards rushing to LSU.

I'm going to accept three touchdowns with Arkansas State catching Iowa State in somewhat of a sandwich spot.

The Cyclones were idle last week. But two weeks ago they nipped heated in-state rival Iowa, 20-19. That win already makes the Cyclones successful for the year. Iowa State opens Big 12 Conference play next week at Houston.

So the Cyclones can't be faulted if they don't have a lot of motivation, facing this non-league opponent from the Sun Belt Conference. 

It's a major drop in class for Iowa State. But Arkansas State does have pluses. Red Wolves QB Jaylen Raynor is a dual threat. Arkansas State will have the best wide receiver on the field in Corey Rucker. Iowa State is inexperienced at linebacker and ranks 111th in run defense. 

The Cyclones likely will run the ball a lot. Arkansas State also will try to grind out yards. A heavy dose of running plays keeps the clock moving, which is good when taking a three-touchdown underdog. 

I was surprised Tulane only opened a field goal against Louisiana and I'm even more surprised money has come on the underdog Ragin' Cajuns. Pleasantly surprised I may add.

Does not strength of schedule matter?

It sure matters to me. Tulane has played Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Green Wave covered against Kansas State in a seven-point loss and fell to the Sooners by 15 points on the road as 13-point 'dogs. 

Louisiana has played Gambling and Kennesaw State, a pair of FCS teams. Kennesaw State is a bottom-tier FCS school. 

When the Green Wave went down in class they blasted SE Louisiana, 52-0.

Running back Makhi Hughes gives Tulane the best skill position player on the field. 

This is a cheap price to get the much superior team. 

Discount Kent State and Mid-American Conference teams are 14-6 (70 percent) ATS this season. The MAC is being overlooked and Toledo is one of the better teams in the conference. 

Yet the marketplace continues to disrespect the MAC. This matchup is an example with Mississippi State bet up into being a double-digit favorite. 
I don't agree with that given the Bulldogs' inability to stop the run. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. The Bulldogs are allowing up more than six yards a carry. 

Mississippi State just lost to rebuilding Arizona State, 30-23, because the Bulldogs allowed Cam Skattebo to dominate them on the ground running for 262 yards. 

The Rockets haven't played a good team yet in beating Duquesne and UMass. But they are averaging 43.5 points and are anxious to prove themselves worthy against an SEC foe. 

Toledo averaged 35 points last season and 33 points two years ago. The Rockets are averaging 43.5 points in two games this season. They have a balanced attack. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. So the Rockets are going to get their share of points. 

Mississippi State is averaging 42.5 points a game through two games. The Bulldogs have committed just one turnover. They are facing a Rockets defense that ranks 73rd in defensive total yards despite playing easy opponents, Duquesne and UMass. 

Blake Shapen is an underrated quarterback and the Bulldogs have surrounded him with good receiving targets. 

Another key is tempo. Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in terms of pace. 

UCLA is down this season and Indiana is a rising team under new coach Curt Cignetti, who made James Madison a power before coming to Indiana. The Hoosiers have an underrated QB in Kurtis Rourke, who played in the MAC last year and thus wasn't that publicized.

UCLA barely got past a bad Hawaii team, 16-13, in their opener. Indiana is a big step up for the Bruins and I don't see them making that step up against an underrated Hoosiers squad that is much better than perceived.

Forget Nevada losing 16 of 20 games the past two seasons. The Wolf Pack are  much better coached under Jeff Choate. They've proven themselves beating Troy on the road as a 7 1/2-point underdog and losing by only five points to SMU as a 27-point 'dog.

Minnesota is not the right team to lay a big number, especially against a physical opponent such as Nevada.

Max Brosmer is a better passer than previous P.J. Fleck quarterbacks at Minnesota, but the Gophers still are way too top-heavy running the ball. Minnesota is averaging 35.5 rushing attempts per game. The Gophers rank 104th in rushing yards per game. They are averaging a meager 2.7 yards per carry. Nevada has a better than average rush defense giving up 3.7 yards per carry.

These are two run-oriented, conservative teams. That's a good mix when taking this big of an underdog.

Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame as a four-touchdown underdog last Saturday and Penn State escaped Bowling Green winning by only seven points as 34-point favorites.

Now it's Central Michigan's turn to stay close to Illinois - if not pull the outright upset. 

When last seen, the Illini had just upset ranked Kansas, 23-17, as 5-point home underdogs this past Saturday. Illinois fans stormed the field following the victory. 

Not only is Illinois in a major letdown situation, but also a look-ahead spot as it opens Big Ten play the following week against much-improved Nebraska in a nationally televised Friday night game. 

I've never been able to trust Illinois coach Bret Bielema and I don't trust him to have his Illini fully motivated for this matchup.
It's easy to see why Illinois could be overconfident as Central Michigan is coming off a 52-16 loss to Florida International last week. The Chippewas were favored in that game, too. 

So, what happened? The score is highly misleading. Central Michigan actually outgained FIU by 60 yards. The Chippewas were done in by a 6-0 turnover disadvantage. 

The Chippewas won 10 games in 2021, including defeating Washington State in a bowl game. They've had some tough luck the past two seasons going 9-15 in one-score games. 

I don't see Illinois being this high of a favorite, especially given the circumstances. 

Would I really go with a Sun Belt Conference team against a former Pac-12 now Big 12 team in a pick-type game?

Darn right when the matchup is Texas State hosting Arizona State and it's on Thursday. Texas State is a rising program under offensive guru G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats beat Rice in a bowl game last season in Kinne's first year as head coach.

The Bobcats feature a big-time quarterback, Jordan McCloud. He was the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year with James Madison last year and the second overall pick in my Sun Belt Conference fantasy football draft gobbled up by me. The 2-0 Bobcats just destroyed USTA, 49-10.

This may be Texas State's biggest game in school history hosting a Power-Four team in a stand-alone college game that will be nationally-televised by ESPN.

Second-year Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has a sharp offensive mind, too, but he's still cleaning the manure left by former Sun Devils coach Herm Edwards. ASU was 3-9 last season, its second consecutive three-win season.

Dillingham has the Sun Devils off to a 2-0 start with victories against Wyoming and Mississippi State. The Sun Devils were touchdown favorites against those foes. Dillingham says Texas State is the best team his Sun Devils have faced so far. He's right.

It's a brutal travel spot for the Sun Devils after playing this past Saturday at home. They barely were able to get two practices in. ASU also opens Big 12 action next week on the road against Texas Tech.

ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt isn't close to being as good as McCloud. Instead, the Sun Devils rely on running back Cam Skattebo. He was tremendous last week rushing for 262 yards against Mississippi State. Skattebo did that on 33 carries. Dillingham can't burn out his star runner before conference play even begins. So Skattebo's role could be diminished.

North Carolina State needed to upgrade at quarterback. The Wolfpack certainly did that landing transfer Grayson McCall, who has more than 10,000 passing yards and 109 all-purpose touchdowns. The Wolfpack put up 38 points against Western Carolina in their opener last week. 

Tennessee has its own emerging star quarterback in Nico Iamaleava. He helped lead the Volunteers to a 35-0 whipping of Iowa in a bowl game last season and he was sharp in Tennessee's, 69-3, shellacking of Tennessee-Chattanooga last week with three TD passes and 314 yards passing before sitting out. The Volunteers played at an exceptionally fast tempo in that game. 

So look for a shootout here with two outstanding passing attacks, playing at an up-tempo pace. 

Michigan State's offense is terrible. The Spartans are averaging 11.9 points in their last 11 games. New QB Aidan Chiles wasn't impressive, nor was the Spartans' offense, in last week's opening win, 16-10, at home against Florida Atlantic. The Spartans couldn't reach 300 yards against Florida Atlantic.

Maryland was much more impressive in a 50-7 opening-week victory against overmatched Connecticut. The Terrapins, though, are breaking in new QB Billy Edwards Jr. after four years of having Taulia Tagovailoa behind center. Edwards is going to have it much rougher stepping up against Michigan State's defense, which is way ahead of its offense.

I see Maryland turning in a good defensive performance, too, as the Terrapins have improved the past couple of years defensively and are facing an extremely weak offense.

It's hard to believe Jacksonville State is as bad as it looked in its opener, a 55-27 loss to Coastal Carolina. Maybe expectations were too high for the Gamecocks following a nine-win season in their first year as a member of Conference USA last season. 

Yet I see the Gamecocks gaining a measure of some self-respect back by playing better this week. They have a respected coach in Rich Rodriguez, a defense that is far better than it played against Coastal Carolina and extra prep time having played last Thursday. 

This isn't a fade on Louisville. The Cardinals are a strong ACC team. They opened with a 62-0 victory against Austin Peay. 

I just feel this line is inflated based on Week 1 results and that Jacksonville State is a strong enough program to be able to stay within four touchdowns of Louisville. 

SMU ranked eighth in scoring and 16th in total offense last year. After a slow three quarters in their opener against Nevada, the Mustangs' offense has gotten back on track producing 76 points in their last five quarters.

The Mustangs have a star quarterback in Preston Stone and plenty of speedy skill position weapons for Stone to utilize. BYU's defense was way down last season. The Cougars gave up an average of 37.5 points in six road games last season. I don't see the Cougars holding SMU below 35 points.

The key question then becomes how much can BYU score to push this total Over?

I believe the Cougars' offense can produce their share of points and not just because SMU is rebuilding its defensive line and secondary.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff displayed a big arm in passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 victory against Southern Illinois last week.

Texas A&M has made seven quarterback changes during the past two seasons. The Aggies still have an unsettled offensive line and are not scary at the skill position spots.

Notre Dame's defense should be able to handle the Aggies. The Irish ranked in the top 10 defensively in many important categories, including fifth in yards allowed and seventh in scoring defense.

Defense is the strength of Texas A&M especially in the defensive line where Purdue transfer Nic Scourton comes on board after leading the Big Ten in sacks last year. Notre Dame lacks experience in the offensive line where three starters departed, including star tackle Joe Alt.

The Irish are breaking in skill position players, too, including QB Riley Leonard. Texas A&M's first year head coach Mike Elko is familiar with Leonard since he coached him at Duke last year.

Yes, North Texas has a bad defense although it won't be as bad as last season. But the Mean Green also averaged nearly 500 yards of offense, placing first in the American Athletic Conference in total offense.

South Alabama doesn't have a good defense either. QB Chandler Morris, a transfer from TCU, should keep North Texas' attack humming. Morris has accounted for 22 touchdowns, 2,433 yards passing and 400 yards rushing in his last 20 games when he played for Oklahoma and then TCU.

South Alabama has a first-year head coach, Major Applewhite, and is breaking in a new quarterback and lead running back. The Jaguars also don't have their leading wide receiver from last season.  

So I'll take this many points with North Texas not knowing for sure if South Alabama can keep up with the Mean Green in the scoring column.

I'm not a huge fan of Florida coach Billy Napier. But I'm even less of a fan of Miami coach Mario Cristobal, who has covered just 32 percent of his games during his two years at Miami.

The Hurricanes under Cristobal have had great talent. That's the case again this season - at least on paper. They always underachieve.

This is Napier's strongest team at Florida. Graham Mertz is back for his sixth season of college football. He's improved every year. Leading rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. is healthy again and will play after he was questionable following the spring. The Gators are especially strong in their defensive front seven.

The Gators have won 32 straight times since 1990 when opening the season at home. Look for that streak to continue.

Usually my first look is backing a Big Ten Conference team against a mediocre American Athletic Conference opponent, which is what we have here. However, Michigan State is not a good Big Ten team. The Spartans were 4-8 last season, 2-7 in the Big Ten.

Florida Atlantic is rebuilding in Tom Herman's second season. The Owls, though, have a respectable defense ranking 59th in scoring defense and 64th in run defense last season. The Owls should be improved this season returning eight defensive starters.

The key takeaway is that Michigan State isn't very good offensively. In fact, Michigan State's offense is downright horrible. The Spartans ranked 121st in offensive success rate, 128th in total yards and 131st in scoring averaging a meager 15.9 points a game in 2023. Sophomore QB Aiden Chiles is set to make his first college start for the Spartans.

Florida Atlantic's offense wasn't that much better statistically than Michigan State's. But the Owls upgraded their roster through the transfer portal bringing in QB Cam Fancher from Marshall, where he accounted for 15 TD's last season.

No Grayson McCall at quarterback for Coastal Carolina. No backing the Chanticleers. That along with Jacksonville State's superior defense, home field and having revenge makes me comfortable backing the Gamecocks.

A rare national TV home game and revenge for last year's loss to Coastal Carolina should have Jacksonville State sky high for this matchup. The Chanticleers defeated Jacksonville State, 30-16, at home last season but the score was misleading. The Gamecocks had more first downs and only had six fewer yards. The Gamecocks won't have to deal with star passer McCall, who transferred to NC State.

There's a huge drop from McCall to Coastal Carolina's new quarterbacks, Noah Kim and Ethan Vasko. Jacksonville State went 9-4 in its first year in the FBS. Rich Rodriquez's defense was the best in Conference USA last season giving up 21.2 points and recording 39 sacks.

Jacksonville State is a team on the rise in Rodriguez's third season. Coastal Carolina has been on the decline the past two years.

Rodriguez's teams are known for running. Coastal Carolina's is weak against the run and must replace its three top tacklers from last season.

I wasn't planning on getting involved in this Week 0 matchup between SMU and Nevada. It's a huge mismatch in SMU's favor. 

But now that the line has been bet up to around four touchdowns, I'm going to get involved with the underdog Wolf Pack. 

Nevada's Mackay Stadium is a tough place for opponents. The Wolf Pack certainly won't lack effort being the first game under new coach Jeff Choate following consecutive 2-10 seasons under Ken Wilson. Reports have been positive Nevada is improved, especially in the offensive line. SMU doesn't have film, or anything to really go by since this is a new Wolf Pack regime. That gives Nevada an element of surprise. 

SMU QB Preston Stone could be rusty, too, having missed spring camp recovering from a broken leg. 

It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. 

Washington hasn't faced a defense this good. The Wolverines give up the fewest points per game in the nation. They rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, too, and in pass defense.

Those who like Washington in this title game say Michigan hasn't faced a quarterback the caliber of Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines, though, beat their share of talented quarterbacks - Jalen Milroe, Taulia Tagovailoa, Kyle McCord and Drew Allar. Michigan also is familiar with Penix having gone against him when he played for Indiana before transferring to Washington. 

The Huskies have good wide receivers. But Michigan has seen better having knocked off Ohio State, who had Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming. 

Michigan is stronger than Washington in the trenches. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Milroe six times in holding the Crimson Tide to 20 points. Penix isn't as mobile as Milroe. 

Something overlooked in this matchup is penalty yardage. The well-coached Wolverines had the second-fewest penalties in the nation. Washington had more than 70 yards in penalties called against them per game, a difference of about 51 yards compared to Michigan. 

Washington ranked 122nd in pass defense and 41st in run defense. Michigan's star running back Blake Corum ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns when the teams met two seasons ago at Michigan. The Wolverines won that game, 31-10. 

Michigan's ground edge will be even more significant if Dillon Johnson, the Huskies' 1,000-yard rusher, is compromised, or unable to play, because of a lower body injury suffered against Texas in Washington's Super Bowl victory.