Tom Macrina Soccer Picks Archive

Bragantino is strong at home while Juventude is a week road team. Juventude’s defensive is questionable. Bragantino's offense makes this a comfortable win.

NYCFC dominates the historical matchup, with an 11-3-8 record against Chicago across 22 games since 2015 (34-22 goal differential). At home, NYCFC is 7-0-3, with a 16-6 goal edge, and the most common result is a 1-0 NYCFC win (4 times).

RSL has the historic edge. Vancouver is in superior form. RSL struggles defensively and Vancouver should be able to exploit that. We'll back the home team.

Atlético Madrid’s recent form includes a 4-0 win over Real Sociedad. They’ve lost only one away game against a top-12 La Liga team this season. Osasuna, despite a strong home record, have struggled against Atlético historically, winning just once in their L10 home games against them since 2011. They’re winless in theirL2 league matches but have scored in every home game this season. Atlético have won 16 of the last 18 meetings, including six straight away games against Osasuna, often keeping clean sheets. We'll back the better team at a good price.

Based on Cincinnati’s superior form, historical dominance, and Toronto’s injury concerns, FC Cincinnati is the play. Cincinnati’s ability to capitalize on Toronto’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the road, gives them the edge.

Crew score first and often and they don't concede. They play well on the road. Montreal has not been a strong team at home and struggle in general. Columbus should be able to control the match and leave with a victory.

Both teams are in bad form. Las Palmas is a team that can score on the road. This should be a low scoring grinder. Sevilla is overvalued here.

Given River Plate’s superior form, home dominance, and historical edge, they are overwhelming favorites. Barracas Central’s poor attacking output and struggles away from home make an upset unlikely. River Plate is a dominant force in Argentine football.

Venezia’s home resilience and Fiorentina’s away inconsistencies suggest a draw is likely. If Fiorentina capitalize on their attacking edge and Kean breaks his scoring drought, they could edge a 1-0 or 2-1 victory.

The Whitecaps are in exceptional form. LAFC is also in strong form. LAFC has historically dominated this matchup, winning 7 of the L11 encounters since 2023, with a +9 goal differential. LAFC’s counter-attacking prowess and defensive discipline make them dangerous, especially away. LAFC’s experience, counter-attacking threat, and historical edge make them formidable. If you don't mind the juice BTTS is a good wager as well.

Despite potential fatigue, Inter Milan’s superior quality and motivation to chase the Serie A title make them favorites. Torino’s injury woes and inconsistent form further tilt the scales. Inter’s depth and attacking options should secure a comfortable win.

Dortmund’s pursuit of a Champions League spot gives them a significant edge in urgency, while Leverkusen, with their position secured, may lack the same intensity. Leverkusen’s defensive injuries could expose them to Dortmund’s potent attack. BayArena is a tough ground, but Dortmund have lost only 3 of their L17 Bundesliga games there. Given Dortmund’s superior motivation, strong recent form, and fewer injuries, they are likely to edge out Leverkusen in a high-scoring game.

Seattle Sounders are in better form. Seattle has dominated recent encounters, remaining unbeaten in the last nine meetings across all competitions, including a 1-1 draw in November 2024. Houston is missing key players.

Recent encounters have been high-scoring: 7 of Milan’s last 10 matches saw both teams score (BTTS), and 8 ended with over 2.5 goals. Earlier this season we saw 3 goals in this match. We'll back a similar outcome.

Given Wolfsburg’s dismal recent form, home struggles, and managerial transition, they face challenges despite their historical advantage. Hoffenheim’s need for points and potent attack make them dangerous. Both teams have scored in most recent head-to-heads, and their defensive weaknesses suggest a high-scoring game.

Historical low scoring trends and Forest’s defensive resilience suggest a tight contest. Palace’s home unbeaten streak, Forest’s attacking struggles point to low scoring match.

AC Milan face Genoa in a Serie A clash where a low-scoring affair looks likely, making the under 2.5 goals bet a strong pick. Milan have been grappling with offensive struggles, failing to find consistent rhythm in attack. Defensively, however, Milan have been rock solid. They’ve conceded just four goals in their last six matches across all competitions, showcasing a disciplined backline and strong organization. Their L3 away games have been particularly impressive, with Milan securing victories without conceding a single goal. This defensive resilience suggests they’re unlikely to give Genoa many clear cut chances.

Despite NYCFC’s home advantage and historical edge, FC Cincinnati’s superior form, depth, and attacking momentum make them the likely winners. A high-scoring game is probable given both teams’ offensive capabilities and recent defensive trends.

This is a low total. Torino’s L6 games have all had under 2.5 goals, and 81% of their home games this season have produced fewer than 3 goals. Venezia have failed to win 16 of their last 17 matches and have not scored in the first half in their last 12 games. Both teams struggle offensively, with Torino averaging 1.00 goals per home game and Venezia 0.90 goals per away game. We'll go UNDER.

Central Córdoba has strong home form and the H2H success. Rivadavia doesn't play well on the road. I expect a low scoring game but I don't see value on the total. The most likely scoreline is Central Córdoba 1-0 Independiente Rivadavia, mirroring their October 2024 result, though a 2-0 win is also plausible given Central Córdoba’s home scoring average.

Bologna, sitting 4th in Serie A with 60 points, has been in strong form, recently securing a spot in the Coppa Italia final and winning 2-1 against Empoli. Their goal difference of +15 and an average of 1.62 goals per match highlight their attacking consistency. Udinese, 12th with 40 points, is struggling, having lost five straight matches, including a 2-0 defeat to Torino. Bologna’s superior form, home advantage at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, and Udinese’s injury concerns scream value for Bologna at this price.

Given Portland’s superior form, attacking depth, and recent unbeaten streak, they are likely to capitalize on LA Galaxy’s defensive issues and lack of cohesion.

This match is a relegation battle where both teams desperately need points. Leganés’ home form and Girona’s away struggles suggest a tightly contested game. Given the historical tendency for goals in their matchups and both teams’ defensive issues, BTTS seems likely. However, Leganés’ slight home advantage and Girona’s inability to secure away wins point toward a draw as the most probable outcome.

Real Madrid are dealing with injuries to key players. : Getafe’s defensive, low scoring style (averaging 0.82 GPM) often leads to tight games, with under 2.5 goals in 12 of their L16 home league matches and 9 of the L10 meetings with Real Madrid. Real Madrid, while potent offensively (averaging 2.24 GPM), have scored one or fewer goals in 4 of their L5 away league games, suggesting a low scoring affair. Getafe's attack has only 14 goals in the final 30 minutes of matches. We'll back the UNDER.

Lazio’s strong form, superior attacking output, and historical edge gives me confident they can get a win. Genoa’s injury hit squad limit their chances. Lazio’s failure to keep clean sheets and Genoa’s ability to score in 7 straight home games suggest both teams could find the net. So we'll take the -0.25 as a cushion in case of a draw.

I expect goals. Both teams have been inconsistent defensively. Both teams are motivated to play well. This is a big total for a reason. We'll take the OVER in this match.

Betis is in better form. Girona struggles defensively and has trouble keeping clean sheets. I also like BTTS and the over 2.5 in this match.

This should be an easy win for Atletico. Atletico won 18 of 27 meetings in the series. Valladolid’s hasn't had a clean sheet in their L11 games. Atletico Madrid are in strong contention, sitting third in La Liga with 60 points after 30 matches. They boast a potent attack, having scored 49 goals (fourth-best in the league), and a solid defense, conceding only 24 goals (best in the league). Real Valladolid are struggling at the bottom of the table with 16 points, having conceded a league-worst 69 goals. Their recent 4-0 loss to Getafe highlights defensive frailties and low morale, exacerbated by off-field issues, including rumors of a potential sale by owner Ronaldo Nazário. We'll back the better team to be better.

Wolves are in strong shape, riding a three game Premier League winning streak. They’ve also been a bogey team for Spurs, unbeaten in theirL4 league meetings (W3, D1) and winning their L2 home games against them at Molineux. Tottenham are inconsistent. Their away form is dire. 9 Premier League losses on the road this season, including 3 straight without scoring. H2H stats favor Wolves. We'll play it safe with the 1/4 handicap, but I do expect a Wolves victory so I don't hate taking them on the ML.

Osasuna’s attacking threat should exploit Leganes defensive vulnerabilities. Osasuna’s recent head to head dominance (winning the L3 meetings) adds weight to their case.

With their experience and firepower Napoli should be able overcome Bologna's impressive form.

I expect LAFC to eke out a narrow victory, leveraging their defensive organization and counterattacking ability, even on the road. Houston may push hard but could falter in finishing, continuing their early season woes. A low scoring affair seems probable, aligning with both teams’ tendencies (LAFC’s 50% clean sheet rate and Houston’s low goal output).

Arsenal is 2nd in the league. They have a robust attack (2.06 goals per match on average) and the best defensive record in the competition. Their recent form against Everton is also dominant, having won their L3 Premier League encounters, including a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park earlier this season. Historically, Arsenal have a commanding record, with 102 wins against Everton. The most against any single opponent in English top-flight history. Playing away at Goodison Park has rarely troubled them, with only one loss in their L28 league visits. Expect Arsenal to control possession and capitalize on a set piece. Everton’s defense holds firm but lacks the firepower to equalize.

Genoa is unbeaten in their L5 home matches (4 wins), scoring twice in 3 of those. Udinese away form is shaky, with 1 win in their L6 Serie A road games. Given Genoa’s home strength and Udinese’s struggles we'll back the home team here.

Wolves’ home form and attacking rhythm give them a slight edge. Wolves nick it late, capitalizing on home energy. I don't hate the ML but we'll go with draw protection.

Celta de Vigo have shown a stronger standing this season compared to Las Palmas. Las Palmas, on the other hand, are struggling. They sit near the bottom of the table with a poor record this season. Their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of over 1.5 goals per game, while their attack has lacked the firepower to turn games around. Historically, they’ve had some success against Celta at home, but their away form is dismal, and they’ve only beaten Celta once in their last six La Liga encounters. Celta should capitalize on their home strength and Las Palmas’ weaknesses to secure a comfortable victory.

Verona's home record against Parma and current momentum suggest they’ll capitalize. Verona should secure a narrow victory, leveraging their home form and historical dominance.

Timbers attack is starting to click after a slow start to the season. They’ve scored 6 goals in their L5 matches. Dynamo are struggling. Portland’s home advantage at Providence Park is significant, especially with a lively crowd on a Sunday night. Houston, desperate for a win, might push forward, but their poor away form and lack of goals make it a tall order. Timbers momentum, home support, and slightly better attacking output should edge out a Houston side that’s still searching for rhythm.

Eight of the last nine Ligue 1 clashes between them have produced over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in 76% of their last 17 meetings. Given Strasbourg’s home strength (2.08 points per game) and Lyon’s attacking prowess (1.46 points per game away), this promises to be a tight, high-scoring affair. Expect an open, entertaining match, with a late goal potentially leveling the score.

Current form heavily favors Leverkusen. Their attacking firepower—Schick, Wirtz, and Victor Boniface (7 goals)—should exploit Bochum’s porous defense, which has conceded 22 goals in their last five league games as of November 2024. Leverkusen’s home advantage and superior squad depth further tilt the scales. I predict a comfortable Bayer Leverkusen victory, likely by a margin of two or more goals. Bochum’s limited offensive output suggests they’ll be outmatched.

Minnesota has been strong to start the season. They’ve secured consecutive 1-0 victories. Their defense has been a standout, boasting a 192-minute shutout streak since conceding early in the season, and they’ve recorded seven shutouts in their last 11 games dating back to September 2024, including a 2-0 win over Sporting Kansas City. Sporting KC has struggled with a 0-3-0 record placing them near the bottom of the Western Conference. Minnesota's defense is key here.

Forest is unbeaten in their L5 vs Ipswich. Ipswich concedes to strong teams. Forest is 3rd on the table while Ipswich is struggling.

This is a relegation spot for both teams so it's high stakes. This should be tightly contested. Las Palmas struggle defensively and have not seen a win a while. Though Alaves is not a good team they've been in better form. Alavés have scored in their last two away games and have a disciplined approach under coach Eduardo Coudet, losing just one of their last seven away matches across all competitions. This match could end in a low scoring but Alaves recent form shows they could leave with a victory.

The first leg showed both teams can score but also highlighted defensive frailties. Dortmund couldn’t hold their lead. Their three prior meetings all ended in draws. Lille’s defensive solidity at home will frustrate Dortmund’s attack. I expect Lille to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a draw. We'll back the home team on the 0 line.

Barcelona has been in great form. In leg 1 they won 1-0 while being down a man because of a red card. Benfica is formidable but Barca plays strong defense at home conceding 3 goals in the 4 games at home. They have injuries but their home dominance and ability to score they should secure a win. I expect a high scoring match. The total is set at 3.5 so I think both teams score. I'm looking at Lewandowski, Raphinha and Pavlidis for ATGS. I'll post them on my X feed when I take those wagers. @WryCape

Lazio ranks 4th in the league with 46 points, averaging 1.95 goals per match and boasting a solid home record. H2H stats favor Lazio. I also lean to the over but we'll back the home team.

This should be a cautious tight game. SLC has a great defense but can't find goals. LA is desperate so they'll play hard. This stays under the 3 goals in a tight fought defensive battle.

These teams are both strong defensive teams and historically these matches have seen the under.

Juventus is unbeaten in their L31 home league matches vs Verona. Juventus’ recent form has been solid, with 4 wins and 1 loss in their L5 matches across all competitions. At home they're unbeaten with 6 wins and 7 draws and they don't concede goals. Hellas Verona are fighting to avoid relegation. Juventus has dominated this team. Given Juventus’ home dominance, defensive solidity, and Verona’s road woes, Juventus should come away with a comfortable win.

Roma is in good form. They've won 4 of their L6 at home. They score most of their matches and don't concede many. Monza on the other hand is awful. They've won 2 of their L25 matches. Their defense is bad and the offense has no firepower. Roma has dominated this series. Monza's last trip to Stadio Olimpico saw a 3-0 victory for Roma. This is a mismatch. Roma should win comfortably.

City is suspect defensively. Neither side is in great form. This should be tight and given the circumstances this will probably be decided in the second leg. This is a great price in what should be a shootout. They'll look to win with offense and I think they can matchup against this leaky City defense.

Napoli is the best team. They're great at home. Historically they own this series. They should be dominant here. This team wants to build on their lead on the table and Udinese is the perfect team to do that against.

NF is in great form. They have a great defense and strong counter attack. The team's ability to score from set pieces and their defensive resilience have been key to their surge up the league standings. NF has been good away from home. Wolves are vulnerable on the defensive side and we have a great price.

Milan is injured but they have the historical edge and Verona hasn't been in the best form recently.

Dortmund's home advantage at Signal Iduna Park cannot be overlooked. Historically, Barcelona has had the upper hand in recent matches against Dortmund, but the German team has been unbeaten at home in the competition this season. Dortmund's home record suggests they could come out on top or at least secure a draw.

Atalanta has been great sitting second in the table. Roma has struggled. Atalanta has a league high 34 goals. BTTS to score is juicy but could be a good parlay piece. Atalanta should get the away win.

Both teams have looked vulnerable on defense. Both teams also offer attacking threats.

Both teams tend to play cautiously. Recent trends suggest we don't see much scoring.

Genoa is not a good team right now. Fiorentina certainly is. I'm not worried about the home field. This is a great price for a team that is in the zone.

The L4 matches between the two teams have been under 2.5 goals. Both teams should play defensively to get at least one point as both teams are at the bottom of the table.

This looks like one of those matches that are hyped for disappointment. This rivalry usually has lower scoring games and we'll expect that here.