Sports Handicapper Big Al McMordie's Picks & Predictions

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia.  The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories.  Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season.  These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens.  But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game.  Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins.  Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%.  Take Missouri + the points.  SEC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.