Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

9* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox took yesterday’s opener 6-3 and are now slight favorites for Tuesday’s rematch. I know that may seem like a “reach” given the respective records of the two teams, but Boston is a bit better than its 14-21 record while Houston is due to regress a little after winning 11 in a row, thanks to a slew of outstanding pitching performances. The Red Sox have won three of four now while the Astros have dropped two of three. I look for a repeat of yesterday’s result. 

Talking about the Astros’ pitching being due for regression, let’s now look at today’s starter, Jose Urquidy. He has a 3-1 team start record on the road this season, but his ERA in those four starts is 6.35. Urquidy lasted only three innings in his last start (game was suspended due to rain) and only once all season has he made it through six. The Astros’ ace reliever Hector Neris had made 10 consecutive scoreless appearances before the Red Sox got to him last night for three runs in the eighth. The home team can and will put runs on the board here. 

Obviously, Boston is highly motivated in this series as it’s a rematch from last year’s ALCS, which they lost in six games. Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the staff in innings pitched, gets the nod Tuesday. Eovaldi is only 1-1 in his seven starts this year, but has a 3.15 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. He’s deserving of a better record, particularly because he’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any 2022 outing. He’s gone more than six innings in three of his last four starts. It’s very interesting to look at the starting pitching matchup for this game and see how the inferior pitcher (Urquidy) has been getting better results of late. I think that’s due for a change. 9* Boston

8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. 

Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. 

I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston

10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. 

With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. 

It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians