Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Indians are a house of fire right now as they've won eight of nine including both games so far here in Kansas City (I was on them both times). They now have the third best overall run differential in MLB (trailing only the Dodgers and Houston) and finally are starting to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the AL Central (6 gm lead on Minnesota, 7.5 over KC). No other team in the division has a run diff better than -31 currently, so there really is no debating that the Tribe is clearly the class of the Central. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, pitching has been the key to this run and that should continue today w/ Danny Salazar on the mound. Again, I expect the Royals to have no answer. 

Cleveland is #1 in the AL on the runs allowed side of the ledger, something that should serve them well moving forward. They've allowed 38 fewer runs than Boston, who has given up the 2nd fewest number. All but one other AL team has allowed 70 more runs this season than Cleveland, who has allowed just one run in this series and three or fewer in eight of the last nine games. Now it's Salazar's turn and he comes in flashing awesome form. His L5 starts have seen him allow five runs total (1.39 ERA) and his KW ratio is 46-9. He dominated the Twins on Tuesday, striking out 10 while allowing just one run on three hits (went seven innings). If that's not enough, Cleveland's bullpen also sports the lowest ERA in the league. This has been an excellent road team all season as they are actually outscoring opponents by a full run per game away from Progressive Field. They are 8-2 on the current trip (final game today) and an AL-best 20-8 since July 21st. 

Meanwhile, the Royals are trending in the opposite direction as they have lost 12 of 18 games here in August and the culprit has been their starting pitching, which has a 5.99 ERA for the month. So, as you might expect, we have a pitching mismatch on our hands here as KC will go w/ Jason Hammel in this spot. I can't see Hammel standing up to Salazar here, not after the former allowed three home runs (to the A's!) in his last start. Hammel also has a 4-10 team start record here at home. KC has been outscored at home this season and simply is not in their division rival's class. 8* Cleveland

10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match between these two NL East also-rans w/ the Mets looking to win two in a row for just the second time here in August. Last night's win was all about "one big inning" as they scored seven times in the sixth, an inning where Miami also happened to commit three errors. Today, they have Jacob deGron toeing the rubber and I like their chances. The Marlins are deGrom's most common opponent (11 starts) and he has a 3.46 ERA against them. While off a rare rough outing his last time out (allowed 5 ER in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Yankees), deGrom has been the stalwart of this Mets rotation w/ a 15-9 TSR overall and he's got a 2.49 ERA and 1.147 WHIP here at home. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts.

Compared to the Mets, Miami had been playing well of late. Going into yday's game, they'd won six of seven and took the series opener 3-1. But this is by no means any kind of strong outfit; in fact, they've been at least two games under .500 since late April. Adam Conley pitches for the Fish today and he comes in w/ a 5.26 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 12 starts this year. He did pitch well his last time out, a quality effort vs. San Francisco (who is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, mind you), but notice also that Conley did not strike out a single batter. He is 2-0 against the Mets this year w/ both starts coming all the way back in early April. One was at deGrom's expense. But the bottom line is that this is a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts. I feel today's game happens to be a huge pitching mismatch in the Mets' favor.

The April 15th faceoff w/ Conley is the only time deGrom has started against Miami this year. He certainly pitched well enough to win back on April 13th as he delivered 13 K's (same # as Conley has in his last four starts combined) and allowed just two runs (both solo HR's) in 7 IP. In my opinion, deGrom is due for a better success rate. His TSR over his L7 starts is just 4-3, but he has a 53:10 KW ratio over that time, not to mention a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. He remains an elite pitcher, one that the Marlins will not have an answer for on Sunday. 10* NY Mets

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays burned me yet again last night as they fell to Seattle 7-6. It was their eighth loss in the last nine games and fourth in a row. I've been on them for each of the last three, all of which have been as ML favorites. Yes, I've talked about the lack of offense before, but late last night we finally started to see signs of this lineup waking up. Though the rally ultimately fell one run short, the team did fight back and scored four times over the final four frames. It matched their best offensive output in the L15 games (scored just 30 runs total). The Rays still have yet to beat Seattle this year (0-5), a head to head record that makes little sense considering how the two Wild Card contenders profile rather evenly. TB even has a slightly better YTD run differential. I'm sticking w/ them one more time today and calling for them to avoid the sweep. 

Eight teams are now separated by just four games in the chase for that final Wild Card spot in the American League. Among those eight teams, only Texas has a positive run differential. Seattle has now won four straight to get to two games above .500, but let us not forget they'd lost five in a row prior to the current win streak. This is an average team at best, one that is below average w/ Yovani Gallardo (starts today) on the mound. Gallardo checks in w/ a 7-12 TSR as his ERA and WHIP are 6.41 and 1.585 respectively. He's been even worse recently, particularly in his last start where he allowed eight runs in just four innings of work. The Mariners lost that game, 11-3 to Baltimore. Gallardo hasn't gone a full six innings in six consecutive starts.

A grand slam (from Mitch Haniger) is what did the Rays in yday, but hopefully we'll be in better hands today w/ Blake Snell on the mound. Snell is off his 1st win of the season (in 16 starts!), but that's misleading when you consider that the team has won each of the last three times the lefty has started. That includes wins over both Houston and Cleveland as ML underdogs. The current stretch is easily the Rays worst of the season, but the "good" news is that they have not lost more than five games in a row at any point this season. The current streak is at four and they were 9-3 coming off three consecutive losses before this streak began. I simply can't see them being swept by the Mariners for a second time this season. 8* Tampa Bay