Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

8* Under D'Backs/Pirates (7:05 ET): Pittsburgh has made a pitching change here as it was originally supposed to be Ivan Nova starting, but instead it will be Chad Kuhl. That's just fine by me, considering the way I'm playing this one, as Kuhl has actually been the slightly better pitcher of the two. The Pirates and D'backs played a series earlier in the year and all three games went Over the total. But that was at Chase Field, a hitter friendly environment. I'm expecting a far lower-scoring game tonight at PNC Park. Did you know that - despite playing its home games in that hitter friendly environment - Arizona actually ranks dead last in all of MLB when it comes to team batting average (.227)? Quite frankly, they're fortunate to also be 14th in runs scored. That low batting average will help contribute to the Under tonight. 

Kuhl was actually set to start yesterday, but the Pirates' finale w/ Milwaukee was rained out. They'd split the first two games of that series, scoring only three runs in the process while at the same time giving up just three. Truthfully, we catch a bit of a break w/ the rainout (was going to play the Under either way, though) as Kuhl has been sharp of late. It's been five consecutive starts allowing 3 ER or less w/ him allowing just nine total in 29 1/3 IP. What makes that stretch even more impressive is that it came exclusively at the expense of division rivals i.e. teams that are quite familiar w/ him. 

Like Pittsburgh, Arizona was off yday, although their off-day was planned. They just split a pair of games out in LA (Angels) before making the trip East. In the series vs. Pittsburgh earlier this month, they were able to take two of three games thanks to scoring 26 runs (on 28 hits). However, this team's true "calling card" has actually been its pitching, which is allowing an average of just 3.8 rpg for the year, 7th best in all of baseball. Zack Godley will take the mound tonight, looking to build upon B2B strong efforts where he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits both times (total of 12 1/3 IP). Godley, like Kuhl, did not pitch in the last series between these teams. I already mentioned how Arizona's team batting average is the lowest in all of MLB; that should go a long way in helping this be a low-scoring game. 8* Under D'backs/Pirates

10* Under A's/White Sox (8:10 ET): Yesterday saw the White Sox allow 12 runs while the A's scored that same number in their game. Off the pair of high-scoring affairs, expect an Under in this series opener. First off, we are able to take advantage of a good number (9 is considered a "key number" when betting MLB totals). Secondly, the White Sox were shutout themselves yday, which wasn't the first time that's happened this year (it was the EIGHTH!). Over the L10 games, they've not scored more than five runs in any individual game and they've been held to three runs or less eight times. Oakland has played a string of high-scoring games recently (Over is 7-1 L8), but we're about to see that change, IMO. A series back in April between these teams may have seen the Over hit all three games, but I'm on the Under here. 

In that April series, the A's scored 30 runs in the three games. That was at home. Shockingly, they have been even more prolific swinging the bats on the road where they average 5.5 runs per game. That's #2 in all of baseball, trailing only Houston. However, I'm not sure that number is sustainable moving forward. They did just score 12 runs yday, pouring it on both early and late in San Diego, but that was on the back of five home runs, including two back to backs. It was not a season-high in runs scored for the surprising A's (now two games above .500), but note they have been held to either three or four runs the L3 times coming off a game where they scored 10+. Is White Sox starter Lucas Giolito ever going to be confused w/ Cy Young? Absolutely not. But his numbers can only improve at this point.

While Oakland has won five in a row, the White Sox have dropped seven straight. Yesterday afternoon was just plain ugly as they were shutout 12-0 by Cleveland, dropping them to 24-49 on the season. This is clearly one of the four worst teams in baseball, though they don't even currently own the longest losing skid in their own division (that would be KC w/ 9 straight losses). Chris Bassitt will start here for the A's and while he's winless in two starts, he had one good one and one ugly one. The good one came against the Royals, whom he held to one run on three hits over 7 IP. The unfortunate one was his last time out as he got hit w/ four unearned runs in loss to the Angels. Expect this start to more closely mirror the first one. I see this being a surprisingly low-scoring game. 10* Under A's/White Sox

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Though Oakland comes in having won five straight and the White Sox have lost seven in a row, I believe the home team can keep this one close, if not win it "outright." Certainly, Oakland appears overvalued coming off a 12-4 beatdown of the Padres in San Diego yesterday. Also, in terms of the value, it "helps" that Chicago was shutout yday by the Indians (12-0!). The Sox are not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they have revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered in Oakland back in April (allowed 30 runs in three games). They'll perform better this weekend and I have them doing no worse than a one-run loss here.

While Oakland was able to average a prolific 10.0 rpg the last time they played the White Sox, that was at home. Now they have shockingly been more prolific swinging the bats on the road where they average 5.5 rpg. That's #2 in all of baseball, trailing only Houston! However, yesterday's 12-run effort came about due to a power surge that's highly unlikely to be repeated. The A's hit five home runs yday off Padres' pitching, including a pair of back to backs. Note that the L3 times Oakland has scored 10 or more runs, they've been held to either three or four the next time out. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito may be short on results so far, but he's long in potential and I believe there's still plenty of time for this young righty to turn things around. Tonight sounds like the perfect time to me!

While Oakland has been scoring plenty of late, they've also been giving up their fair share of runs as well. Over the L7 games, they've allowed an average of over six runs per. Not saying Chicago will get to that number here (they probably won't), but they also don't have to given the additional "help" (+1.5) we're paying a modest price to get. A's starter Chris Bassitt lasted only four innings in his last start and while four were unearned, he ended up allowing six runs. Tonight is the first time Bassitt will be starting on the road this season. He hasn't won a decision - anywhere - since August of 2015! It's rare that one can say this, but I view the White Sox as being undervalued here when it comes to the run line. 8* RL Chicago White Sox (+1.5) 

8* Under D'Backs/Pirates (7:05 ET): Pittsburgh has made a pitching change here as it was originally supposed to be Ivan Nova starting, but instead it will be Chad Kuhl. That's just fine by me, considering the way I'm playing this one, as Kuhl has actually been the slightly better pitcher of the two. The Pirates and D'backs played a series earlier in the year and all three games went Over the total. But that was at Chase Field, a hitter friendly environment. I'm expecting a far lower-scoring game tonight at PNC Park. Did you know that - despite playing its home games in that hitter friendly environment - Arizona actually ranks dead last in all of MLB when it comes to team batting average (.227)? Quite frankly, they're fortunate to also be 14th in runs scored. That low batting average will help contribute to the Under tonight. 

Kuhl was actually set to start yesterday, but the Pirates' finale w/ Milwaukee was rained out. They'd split the first two games of that series, scoring only three runs in the process while at the same time giving up just three. Truthfully, we catch a bit of a break w/ the rainout (was going to play the Under either way, though) as Kuhl has been sharp of late. It's been five consecutive starts allowing 3 ER or less w/ him allowing just nine total in 29 1/3 IP. What makes that stretch even more impressive is that it came exclusively at the expense of division rivals i.e. teams that are quite familiar w/ him. 

Like Pittsburgh, Arizona was off yday, although their off-day was planned. They just split a pair of games out in LA (Angels) before making the trip East. In the series vs. Pittsburgh earlier this month, they were able to take two of three games thanks to scoring 26 runs (on 28 hits). However, this team's true "calling card" has actually been its pitching, which is allowing an average of just 3.8 rpg for the year, 7th best in all of baseball. Zack Godley will take the mound tonight, looking to build upon B2B strong efforts where he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits both times (total of 12 1/3 IP). Godley, like Kuhl, did not pitch in the last series between these teams. I already mentioned how Arizona's team batting average is the lowest in all of MLB; that should go a long way in helping this be a low-scoring game. 8* Under D'backs/Pirates

10* Argentina (2:00 PM ET): A disappointing showing in the opener (drew Iceland 1-1) coupled w/ Croatia's very impressive 2-0 win over Nigeria has the price on Argentina far too low here and I'll take advantage. While the starting XI may not be up to the usual standard we're seeing from La Albiceleste, certainly there is a reason this team entered the draw as the Group D favorite. That (primary) reason would be Lionel Messi, who is coming off quite the disappointing showing vs. Iceland where he missed on a penalty kick. But I fully expect Messi and La Albiceleste to bounce back w/ a spirited effort on Thursday. They are my pick to win and seize control of the group. 

I was on Croatia Saturday as they blanked Nigeria. As is the case w/ Argentina here, I though the price was far too low on Vatreni that day. Nigeria was the lowest rated team in the group according to FIFA (#48), so this is a rather massive step up in class to the #5 ranked team in the world. (For the record, Croatia ranks #20). Let us not forget something I wrote in my analysis of that Croatia-Nigeria matchup - that since becoming an independent nation Croatia has NEVER qualified for the Round of 16 in World Cup play. Coming off an easier than expected win over Nigeria, might they actually be too overconfident heading into their toughest matchup of the groups stage?

Remember that Nigeria had a suspect goaltending situation as well. Even with that, Croatia's 2-0 victory was somewhat misleading. They scored on an own goal and a penalty. Other than those two decisive plays, the teams looked pretty even as Croatia struggled to penetrate the Nigerian defense and was often off-target w/ its shot attempts. In fact, possession was basically even in the contest and the Super Eagles finished w/ more shots on goal. Another developing story here is that Croatia has sent home striker Nikola Kalinic after he refused to come in as a late substitution. Note Argentina outshot Iceland 26-9 in the opening contest and controlled the ball 73% of the time. Messi will be better here and Argentina gets the three points. 10* Argentina