Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. 

Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point.

Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina 

8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. 

Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. 

Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU

8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. 

Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. 

Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State