Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

8* Colorado (8:05 ET): The Avalanche were the biggest surprise in the entire league last year. After a historically inept 2016-17 campaign (only 48 points), they jumped all the way up to 95 points and a playoff berth. Such a one-year jump usually signals regression the following season, but the Avs started out 7-2-2. Since then, however, that inevitable regression seems to have taken hold. They are just 2-4-2 in their last eight games and coming off an overtime loss (at home) to Washington Friday. Four of their six losses have been by one goal however, so it's not like they haven't been competitive.

Anaheim's season has mirrored the trajectory of Colorado's. The Ducks started strong 5-1-1 their last 7 games. But since then they've dropped 11 of 14. Two of the three wins came beyond regulation. Offense has been an issue here w/ the team ranking 30th in goals per game and the league's 27th ranked power play isn't exactly helping. The Ducks have scored just three goals in the last four games, excluding the shootout vs. Nashville. Usually one of the top teams in the Pacific, the Ducks are not a team I'm particularly high on right now.

Phillip Grubauer will start in goal for Colorado tonight after stopping 26 of 29 shots against Washington Friday. His save percentage remains low and this will be justt the second time all year he's started two straight games. The other time resulted in a 3-1 win over Carolina. He shouldn't be tested much here from an Anaheim team averaging a league-low 26.3 shots per game. The Ducks also have issues at the other end of the ice right now with their top three defensemen all being rookies. They lost their top blue line player, Cam Fowler, to a facial fracture on Monday. 8* Colorado

8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. 

Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. 

Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso 

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): I think it would be fair to say that there's a sense a skepticism concerning the pro football team from the Windy City. The Bears are 6-3 SU and lead the NFC North, but they've gotten to three games above .500 by beating the Jets, Bills and Lions. Still, all three wins did come in pretty convincing fashion (all by 12 or more pts) and the Bears now own a point differential (+94) that's better than all but three other teams in the league (Chiefs, Rams and Saints). Sunday night will most certainly be labeled as a "prove it" game to the national audience and I think they pass the test at home. They've got revenge for a pair of losses to the Vikings last season and have generally been just the better team here in 2018. I'm going to lay the short number. 

Minnesota also has a top five defense and beat Detroit in their last game. Their win over the Lions, 24-9, came two weeks ago as they're coming off a bye here. So a lot of people are going to love the situation from their perspective. But under Mike Zimmer, the team is just 1-3 ATS off a bye, including playoffs. The Vikings would be ahead of the Bears in the division if not for that embarrassing loss to Buffalo (at home) back in Week 3. Their only other two defeats came against the Rams and Saints. The only reason that people might seem "down" on this team is because they went 13-3 SU a year ago and added Kirk Cousins. They're a good team, but when it comes to the division, I just think this is going to be the Bears' year.

Remember that early in the season, I called for Chicago to be a sleeper playoff team. The key was finally firing John Fox and replacing him w/ an offensive mind like Matt Nagy. A relatively soft schedule has helped. But since Week 4, this Bears offense has led the league in points per game at 34.3. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 19 TD passes during that time and is coming off a career-best performance LW vs. the Lions. While both defenses here are top five in yards allowed, the Bears are allowing fewer points per game and overall have been the better unit. This is the biggest game for the Bears in years and its at home on a Sunday night. Doubted on a national level, they'll show up and deliver. 8* Chicago 

10* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): Needless to say, less than one year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles did not bank on being in this position. That position being more than a touchdown underdog to an opponent. Now this is opponent is New Orleans, who is at home and historically lethal in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Saints also come into this one on an eight-game SU and ATS win streak. Since losing Week 1 (here at home) to Tampa Bay, they've outscored opponents by almost two touchdowns per game. Most, including myself, have them as the top team in the league right now. In their last home game, Drew Brees and company beat the Rams (pretty handily) to take over that honor. Last week, they obliterated Cincinnati on the road, 51-14. 

So the Eagles, only 4-5 SU and off a primetime loss to Dallas, definitely are "up against it" a bit here. Even though the NFC East is weak overall, with Washington currently 6-3, Philly's season is very much hanging in the balance here (although they still play the Redskins twice). I do have to say that this spread did require a bit of a double take. And in handicapping the matchup, I uncovered a key trend that only confirmed my belief that the road dog is the correct play here. The last five times the previous year's Super Bowl winner was a dog of seven or more in a game (and this is obviously a rare spot), that team has covered the spread four times. I think the Eagles are being undervalued here.

You have to remember that on their run to the SB last season, they were an underdog in every playoff game. Last week's outright loss to Dallas dropped the Eagles to 2-8 ATS the L10 times they have been favored (w/ 5 outright losses). But as an underdog, they have covered six straight times (this excludes Wk 17 LY when they rested starters). They've been favored in every game this year with one exception, Week 1 vs. Atlanta (a game they won 18-12). This team still has Carson Wentz at QB, a relatively strong defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and all five losses have been by seven points or less. Another good trend here is that teams off a SU loss by 14+ pts on Sunday or Monday Night Football this year have gone 8-2 ATS the following week. Yes, I'll jump in front of the New Orleans' train. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia 

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): What is heaven's name has gone wrong with the Jaguars? After Week 2, this team was perceived as a legit threat to win the AFC as they'd just avenged LY's Championship Game loss to New England, beating the Patriots pretty handily, 31-20. But as you know, Week 2 was a LONG time ago. Since then, the Jags have lost six of seven, including five straight. Their only win during that time was against the lowly Jets. Last week saw them get knocked off by the division rival Colts, 29-26, a game where the once-proud defense was torched for all 29 pts in the first half. The task gets no tougher this week as the Jags play Pittsburgh. But the game is at home and the number is inflated. I'm going to take a "flier" on the dog here as they look to salvage their season.

Salvaging the season is still a possibility for Jacksonville, mind you. Their next two games are: at Buffalo and a rematch w/ Indy at home. So if they were to win here, they could easily be back at .500 after 12 games. I have no idea what went wrong w/ the defense in the 1H last week, though it isn't exactly refreshing to hear the personnel refer to the mistakes as "brain farts". What I do know is they shut the Colts out in the 2H. Maybe this defense isn't what it was a year ago, but it's a prideful bunch and I think they'll bounce back. Of course, we also need the offense to get back on track as well with QB Blake Bortles being the biggest offender. The good news is RB Leonard Fournette is back in the lineup and prior to last week's loss, the team was 2-0 SU w/ him on the field and 1-5 SU without.

For Pittsburgh, this is obviously a double revenge game. They lost twice to the Jaguars last year, including at home in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If you recall, I had a sizable play on Jacksonville in that playoff meeting. Pittsburgh is definitely hot right now and with the double revenge angle, figures to be a popular side this week. They've won and covered five straight games following a 1-2-1 SU start. But, as noted earlier, this line is inflated. The Steelers have not won a road game this year by more than seven points and under HC Tomlin they are just 7-18 ATS all-time as a road favorite of six or more points. Take the points here with a desperate dog. 8* Jacksonville

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Both of these teams would just as soon burn the Week 10 film as Carolina got hammered 52-21 in Pittsburgh Thursday night while the Lions lost in Chicago, 34-22. For the Lions that final score was actually a bit misleading considering they were down 26-0 midway through the second quarter. Either way, it was still a third straight double digit loss for Matt Patricia's team, whose season is basically on the brink this week as the team is 3-6 SU overall. Even after losing by 31, the Panthers are still in okay shape at 6-3 SU, but I've had my doubts about just how good this team is. On the road, they're now just 1-3 SU/ATS and averaging 20.7 PPG. That one win was a come from behind effort in Philadelphia, a game where they trailed 17-0 in the 4Q.

It wasn't the Carolina offense that had the problem in Pittsburgh, though their 21 pts scored were the lowest in a game since the last time they played on the road. In fact, they haven't scored more than 24 all season on the road. Rather, it was the defense getting torched for 52 points and 457 total yards. Excluding the Steelers running out the clock to end the 1st half, they scored on each of their first seven drives. Now, whether or not the Detroit offense can have a big day remains to be seen. But one thing that would certainly help the Lions here is protecting the football. Twice in the last three weeks, they've finished w/ a -3 TO ratio.

Keep in mind that the Lions have been a home dog to only one other team all season. That would be New England back in Week 3, a Sunday night game where they pulled a massive 26-10 upset as seven-point chalk. Few saw that one coming. The Lions' last two road games have been on the road. The last time they were at home, I actually played against them and they lost 28-14 to Seattle. But that game saw them turn the ball over TWICE in the end zone. Again, protecting the football is paramount here (as it is for any NFL game). Carolina has won a lot of close games the L2 seasons and has only outscored their opponents by seven points for the year. Take the points. 10* Detroit.