Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

8* Oakland (3:10 ET): I thought the A’s were going to dominate this series. Clearly, that has not happened. They’ve lost the first three games to the Mariners and are now 0-8 the L8 head to head matchups with their AL West rivals. The results of this series have put Seattle ahead in the Wild Card chase as Oakland is now a full game behind them and 3.5 games back of the second WC spot. The A’s came into this series on a five-game win streak and I thought the fact they had revenge from a previous sweep would serve them well. I just can’t see them being swept at home in a four-game series. 

I’ve beaten the discussion of Seattle’s YTD run differential to death at this point. They continue to be the only American League team with a winning record and negative run differential. It’s not that uncommon to have a team with that dichotomy, but the M’s have taken it to the extreme in 2021. They are 83-69 despite having been outscored by 54 runs! Their win expectancy, based on that run differential, is only 70! No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than six this season. The 2021 Mariners are truly one of the great overachievers of our time. I still don’t think they are very good. 

In their eight consecutive defeats at the hands of Seattle, the A’s have never topped four runs in any game. But I think the offense will get going this afternoon against Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 7.45 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have been Mariners’ losses. Kikuchi has also lost six of his last seven decisions. Starting opposite him will be Chris Bassitt, who makes his return to the mound after being hit in the face with a line drive last month. Bassitt had the most wins (12) in the American League at the time of his injury and the A’s have to be thrilled to have him back. Seattle’s offense is bottom five in batting average, slugging, OBP and OPS. 8* Oakland

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Sweeping a four-game series on the road is tough to do, particularly when you’ve been the underdog every day. But that’s what St. Louis is looking to do here as the Cardinals are on their longest win streak in 20 years (11 games) and have taken three straight in Milwaukee. While fading a hot team like this can be a bit scary, I’m going to lean on the fact that the Brewers are a very good team (first place!) and this is the first time since June that they’ve lost more than three in a row. I believe they’re due to bounce back and will avoid the (rare) four-game sweep at home.

Now the Brew Crew needs to start swinging the bats better. In their last six losses, they’ve totaled just 10 runs. They’ve been outscored 17-5 in this series and are 15-45 this season when scoring three runs or less. Facing long-time nemesis Adam Wainwright may not sound like the ideal time for them to get the offense going. But Milwaukee is 39-21 in day games this season, averaging 4.8 runs. They also are averaging 5.0 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. They’ve won 41 of their last 60 games vs. righty starters. 

It also helps (the home team) having Adrian Houser on the mound. Houser is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP during that time. The Brewers have won 17 of his 24 starts this season. One of those last three starts came against the Cardinals and Houser went the distance with a complete-game three-hitter (no runs allowed). He is 6-1 his L17 starts with a 2.87 ERA. Houser also beat the Cards back in April when the only run he allowed was unearned. St. Louis is just 2-7 the L9 finales of a four-game series. 10* Milwaukee

6* Roma (2:45 ET): AS Roma is off its first loss of the Serie A season, a bit of a shocker as they fell 3-2 to Hellas Verona last week. But this is a great chance to bounce back as they are on a six-match win streak at Stadio Olimpico and will be hosting an Udinese side that has had little time to recover from its 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Napoli on Monday. So in addition to having the home turf edge, Roma has a bit of a scheduling advantage as well. (They last played on Sunday). Look for them to get the full three points here ahead of this Sunday’s derby with rival Lazio. 

It was also Udinese’s first loss of the Serie A campaign on Monday, although theirs came far more decisively than Roma’s did. They conceded twice in both halves, a result that reduced their YTD goal differential back down to zero. Previously, Udinese had beaten Spezia and Venezia, two of the weaker sides in Serie A. They’d also played to a 2-2 draw with Juventus, which no longer looks as impressive as it did at the time (Juve struggling big time). So Udinese has yet to defeat a team in the upper half of the table. It may not get as ugly as Monday did, but this is poised to be another humbling defeat.

I’d gone with Roma each of the first three weeks as they beat Fiorentina, Salernitana and Sassuolo in succession. With them taking maximum points from those three fixtures, I laid off last week against Verona. I was kind of regretting that decision when they led at halftime. But a poor second half confirmed my belief they were due for a letdown. Now I’ll get back on the horse and once again note that new manager Jose Mourinho has the second highest point percentage in the Italian top flight this century. This is going to be a side to be reckoned with in 2021. 6* Roma