Sports Handicapper Bryan Power's Picks & Predictions

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): You can make it four straight losses for the Cubs, all here at Wrigley, a streak that couldn't come at a worse time. The last three have all been by one run, yesterday's being perhaps the most frustrating as it was 2-1 despite outhitting the Cardinals 9-4. If not for Yadier Molina (3-4, 2 RBI's), the Cards would have just one hit for the game. The Cubs now not only trail St. Louis by 5.5 games in the NL Central, but also Milwaukee by two games for the Wild Card. Not only do the Cubs have the best run differential of all three teams, the Brewers have negative scoring differential. If they were to make the playoffs - and not the Cubs - it would be quite the disappointment in the Windy City. It's time for them to bounce back Saturday afternoon. 

Dakota Hudson goes today for the Cardinals. His L7 starts have been remarkable w/ a 1.59 ERA and 0.904 WHIP. The team has gone 6-1 in that stretch. We made the mistake of fading Hudson as a home dog Monday vs. Washington. He threw seven innings and allowed only two runs in that start, a 4-2 Cards' victory. However, we've got our reasons for fading him again here. A big one is his 1.582 WHIP on the road. Five of those last seven starts have come at home. The two that didn't were against Colorado and Kansas City, two very bad teams. Somehow Hudson has not yet faced the Cubs this year. Something interesting about him is while he has a 14-2 TSR as a favorite, he has a 7-7 TSR as an underdog (as he is here). 

It's "put up or shut up" time for the Cubs. They lost Thursday's game in extra innings (after rallying from 3 runs down in the 9th) and then yesterday was won they easily could have won too. They'll be handing the ball to Jose Quintana for this all-important game. Quintana has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 11.33 ERA and 2.227 WHIP his L3 starts. He's been tagged for 4+ runs in four of his last five starts. Curiously though, he still has a better WHIP on the year compared to Hudson. Quintana has faced the Cardinals two times in 2019, winning the one at home (13-5) as he held them to two runs in six innings. This current Cubs' losing streak matches their 2nd longest of the season w/ the only longer one (six games) coming very early in the year. Their 51 home wins are 4th most in all of MLB. 10* Chi Cubs 

10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi St (4:00 ET): So this matchup is quite the reverse of Thursday night's Over play on Houston-Tulane. The Thursday night game saw the teams come in w/ a combined 6-0 Under mark while this Saturday afternoon battle in the SEC sees two teams that are 6-0. Something else Kentucky and Miss State have in common here is both are coming in off narrow losses at home last week. Kentucky lost to Florida 29-21 while Mississippi State was upset here in Starkville by a Kansas State team that it looks like we all underestimated. But what we're interested in here is the total as one of the starting QB's may be OUT here (Miss St) and last year's game was really low scoring. That's what we are anticipating again here. Take the Under. 

You had to figure MSU's defense would take a step back this year after giving up just 13.2 PPG a season ago. That was #2 in the country, behind only Alabama, but three #1 NFL Draft choices left that group. Still, it's been disconcerting to see the Bulldogs give up so many points early on, including 28 to Louisiana and 31 LW to Kansas State. Note, however, that they allowed less than 300 total yards in last week's loss. The difference in the game ended up being a 100-yard kick return for TD by Kansas State, which came just after Miss St had taken a seven-point lead. The Bulldogs defense than uncharacteristically wilted late, giving up a six-play, 53-yard drive to lose the game. Before that, they had been just fine. 

But Miss St potentially has bigger problems heading into this game as QB Tommy Stevens may not play. A shoulder injury has limited him each of the L2 games and last week he had to be taken out after throwing two picks and completing only 7 of 15 passes for 100 yards. Regardless of whether or not Stevens does play here, this Under is play is on as he clearly won't be at 100 percent. Last year, the Bulldogs' offense managed only 7 points as they were upset on the road by Kentucky. But we still trust that defense to play better than it has. Kentucky was probably the least dominant 10-win team in the country a year ago, so they figure to take a step back in 2019. They lost their top offensive player from LY (RB Benny Snell) and have only four starters back from a defense that gave up just 16.8 PPG. Still, they did hold Florida to just 10 points through three quarters last week (fell apart in 4Q) after allowing only 17 pts the previous game. 10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi State

8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! 

Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. 

Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana

8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. 

Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. 

The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan

8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. 

Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. 

UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe 

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. 

Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. 

Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games.  8* UTEP

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. 

Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa