Sports Handicapper Dave Price's Picks & Predictions

6* Spurs/Blazers Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio +4.5 

The Key: The Spurs aren’t getting much respect early in the season.  I don’t think they’re any worse off than they were last year.  In fact, they should be better.  The replaced Kawhi Leonard with DeMar DeRozan.  Leonard played hardly at all last season, and DeRozan is healthy and still one of the best players in the NBA.  The Spurs haven’t lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Blazers by more than 4 points.  They are 7-3 SU in those 10 games with their 3 losses coming by 1, 1, and 4 points.  Take San Antonio. 

Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on Fresno State -13 

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs have been a great bet since Jeff Tedford took over.  Tedford is 16-3 ATS in all games as the coach of Fresno State.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 this season with all 5 wins coming by 18 points or more.  Their only loss came at Minnesota.  They should be able to handle New Mexico, which has losses to Liberty at home and Colorado State on the road this season.  The Lobos’ only 3 wins have come against Incarnate Word, New Mexico State and UNLV.  The Bulldogs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall, including 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Fresno State.

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6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 

The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday.  They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out.  North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance.  They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season.  But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers.  LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week.  That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB.  The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games.  They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value.  Take UTEP. 

6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here.  And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols.  The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites.  They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama.  Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980.  There’s some value here with the Vols.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 

The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad.  Their loss to Texas Tech was.  And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends.  The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity.  Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU.  Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma.  Take TCU. 

6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48 

The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively.  Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games.  USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games.  I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now.  They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings.  USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games.  Take the OVER. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss.