Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (473) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remains unbeaten this season after their 22-6 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss in overtime at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 15th two Thursdays ago. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks have suffered two straight upset losses after losing their previous game against San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games under head coach Mike Macdonald after failing to cover the point spread in two games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss since Macdonald took over. Quarterback Sam Darnold was asked to throw the ball 51 times in that game — and while he passed for 278 yards, he only averaged 5.45 Yards-Per-Attempt. After averaging 351.4 total Yards-Per-Game in the regular season last season, the Seahawks are only generating 332.2 YPG this season — and they are averaging just 274.0 YPG in their three games at home. There are a few reasons why Seattle’s offense has taken a step back. Losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas to become the Raiders' head coach has played a role. Macdonald tapped San Francisco run game coordinator Brian Fleury as the new offensive coordinator — but he is a rookie play-caller. After ranking 10th in the NFL in the regular season in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), they have dropped to 20th in that metric this season. It starts with their rushing game, where they rank 30th in Expected Points per Rush and 21st in Rushing Success Rate. This is an area where they really miss Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker offered the offensive explosive plays, but the Super Bowl MVP moved on to Kansas City in free agency, where he is thriving. Charbonnet can grind out tough yards after contact, but he is still recovering from his torn ACL that he suffered in the playoffs last year. The team drafted Jadarian Price in the first round out of Notre Dame — but he is injured as well after an up-and-down start to the season. That leaves the primary rushing duties to Emmanuel Wilson, who is only generating 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Against the Broncos last week, he ran the ball 14 times for only 52 yards. Not being able to run the ball well is taking the bite out of the Seahawks’ play-action passing game. That leads the conversation to quarterback Sam Darnold, who has taken a step back this season. He is completing only 60.4% of his passes with a 6.93 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions in five games. His Quarterback Rating is 77.4. Last season, Darnold completed 67.7% of his passes in the regular season with an 8.5 YPA and 25 touchdown passes. His 14 interceptions last season were an issue that continues this year — but his QBR of 99.1 was much better. But the dirty little secret about Seattle last season was that they got exposed in Week 11 in their initial showdown against the Rams, as they did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations about the heavy personnel and multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they ranked 18th in that metric for the rest of the regular season. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he dropped to 18th for the rest of the regular season. Darnold’s struggles against pressure were also a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket in the regular season, he threw for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure in the regular season, he had only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. Darnold was responsible for 20 turnovers via 14 interceptions and six lost fumbles last season — but he did play mistake-free football against the Rams and Patriots en route to the Super Bowl title. It does not have to be all-or-nothing regarding Darnold, as our 24/7 Hot Take Sports Industrial Complex suggests. If you give Darnold time, he has more than enough talent to torch opposing defenses. But he can get a bit frenetic if pressured in the pocket. He can force things and try to do too much. It happens to most quarterbacks. It’s not a death sentence — and I have criticized Matthew Stafford over his mistakes over the years. In the Super Bowl win, Darnold completed only 19 of 38 passes for 200 yards — but he took only one sack and did not commit a turnover. Quarterbacks on losing teams in the Super Bowl would get ripped for that stat line — all I am saying is let’s not anoint him, despite leading his team to victory. And his problems when pressured have continued this season, stemming from the subpar play of his offensive line. The Seahawks rank 29th in Pressure Rate Allowed, with their quarterbacks getting pressured on 46.4% of their dropbacks. Their sack rate on 7.3% of their dropbacks ranks 23rd in the league. After ranking eighth in Passing EPA and fourth in Passing Success Rate, Seattle has dropped to 19th and 18th in those metrics this season. It’s the lack of a running game or play-action game on early downs that is hurting them. After ranking eighth in Early Down Success Rate last season, they have dipped to 18th this season. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with Macdonald in Weeks Five through Nine. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 43 of their 59 games since Andy Reid took over the team after winning two games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. The Chiefs defense ranks third in the league in Opponent EPA per Play and Opponent Success Rate. They also rank fourth in the NFL in Opponent EPA per Dropback. With Reid as their head coach, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games against teams from the NFC. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games on the road in Prime Time. 

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have had trouble (or a lack of interest) in covering larger point spreads as the favorite — but when Mahomes is healthy and under center, they are 24-10-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite laying less than a field goal. Kansas City is also 10-1-1 ATS with Mahomes in his last 12 starts on the road as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (473) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remains unbeaten this season after their 22-6 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss in overtime at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 15th two Thursdays ago. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks need to get back to basics with the possibility of their record falling below .500 if they lose this game. Quarterback Sam Darnold was asked to throw the ball 51 times in that game — and while he passed for 278 yards, he only averaged 5.45 Yards-Per-Attempt. Look for them to run the ball more, ask less of Darnold, and slow this game down. After averaging 351.4 total Yards-Per-Game in the regular season last season, the Seahawks are only generating 332.2 YPG this season — and they are averaging just 274.0 YPG in their three games at home. There are a few reasons why Seattle’s offense has taken a step back. Losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas to become the Raiders' head coach has played a role. Head coach Mike Macdonald tapped San Francisco run game coordinator Brian Fleury as the new offensive coordinator — but he is a rookie play-caller. After ranking 10th in the NFL in the regular season in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), they have dropped to 20th in that metric this season. It starts with their rushing game, where they rank 30th in Expected Points per Rush and 21st in Rushing Success Rate. This is an area where they really miss Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker offered the offensive explosive plays, but the Super Bowl MVP moved on to Kansas City in free agency, where he is thriving. Charbonnet can grind out tough yards after contact, but he is still recovering from his torn ACL that he suffered in the playoffs last year. The team drafted Jadarian Price in the first round out of Notre Dame — but he is injured as well after an up-and-down start to the season. That leaves the primary rushing duties to Emmanuel Wilson, who is only generating 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Against the Broncos last week, he ran the ball 14 times for only 52 yards. Not being able to run the ball well is taking the bite out of the Seahawks’ play-action passing game. That leads the conversation to quarterback Sam Darnold, who has taken a step back this season. He is completing only 60.4% of his passes with a 6.93 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions in five games. His Quarterback Rating is 77.4. Last season, Darnold completed 67.7% of his passes in the regular season with an 8.5 YPA and 25 touchdown passes. His 14 interceptions last season were an issue that continues this year — but his QBR of 99.1 was much better. But the dirty little secret about Seattle last season was that they got exposed in Week 11 in their initial showdown against the Rams, as they did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations about the heavy personnel and multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they ranked 18th in that metric for the rest of the regular season. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he dropped to 18th for the rest of the regular season. Darnold’s struggles against pressure were also a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket in the regular season, he threw for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure in the regular season, he had only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. Darnold was responsible for 20 turnovers via 14 interceptions and six lost fumbles last season — but he did play mistake-free football against the Rams and Patriots en route to the Super Bowl title. It does not have to be all-or-nothing regarding Darnold, as our 24/7 Hot Take Sports Industrial Complex suggests. If you give Darnold time, he has more than enough talent to torch opposing defenses. But he can get a bit frenetic if pressured in the pocket. He can force things and try to do too much. It happens to most quarterbacks. It’s not a death sentence — and I have criticized Matthew Stafford over his mistakes over the years. In the Super Bowl win, Darnold completed only 19 of 38 passes for 200 yards — but he took only one sack and did not commit a turnover. Quarterbacks on losing teams in the Super Bowl would get ripped for that stat line — all I am saying is let’s not anoint him, despite leading his team to victory. And his problems when pressured have continued this season, stemming from the subpar play of his offensive line. The Seahawks rank 29th in Pressure Rate Allowed, with their quarterbacks getting pressured on 46.4% of their dropbacks. Their sack rate on 7.3% of their dropbacks ranks 23rd in the league. After ranking eighth in Passing EPA and fourth in Passing Success Rate, Seattle has dropped to 19th and 18th in those metrics this season. It’s the lack of a running game or play-action game on early downs that is hurting them. After ranking eighth in Early Down Success Rate last season, they have dipped to 18th this season. Fortunately for Macdonald and the Seattle faithful, the other side of the ball remains elite. The Seahawks rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They then rank second in the NFL in each of these other defensive metrics: Overall DVOA; Rush DVOA, EPA per Rush, Passing DVOA, Passing Success Rate, EPA per Dropback. The secret sauce to Macdonald’s defense comes from “amoeba” players like Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori who have the flexibility to thrive in pass coverage or move into the box to stop the run. This versatility allowed the Seattle defense to play in a 4-2-5 nickel formation as their base defense 93% of the time last season. Macdonald’s fundamental philosophy is to have his unit make formation adjustments post-snap. Having players who can operate effectively at multiple positions is essential. Will linebacker Drake Thomas is out tonight — but Emmanwori is expected to play despite being listed as questionable. The Seahawks have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total with Macdonald after losing two games in a row. They have also played 13 of their 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the Macdonald era. Kansas City has played 19 of their 28 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home against a fellow AFC West rival since Andy Reid became their head coach. They have also played 41 of their 61 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine with Reid. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries as well, with number one wide receiver Rashee Rice out and starting left tackle Josh Simmons both still out. It is the Kansas City defense that bumps Seattle out of the second slot in the Opponent Rushing Success Rate rankings. The Chiefs defense ranks third in the league in Opponent EPA per Play and Opponent Success Rate. They also rank fourth in the NFL in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Kansas City is averaging over 28 Points-Per-Game — but they have faced some soft (or injured) defenses: Miami, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, LA Chargers (injured). 

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are holding their opponents to 237.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders against teams who are not giving up more than 285 total YPG. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Seattle Seahawks (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 10/25:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday was with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Green Bay (4-2) has won three games in a row after their 23-13 upset win at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Packers have now played 18 of their last 27 games in October Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Detroit (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 45-21 win at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite against the Cardinals two Sundays ago. The Lions have played all five of their games Over the Total this season — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after their bye week. They have also played 3 straight Unders after a straight-up win on the road. The Over is tempting — but the last four meetings between these two teams have seen two Overs and two Unders. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. 

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 20 of 28 (71%) NFL SIDES STREAK — and Frank furthers his 18 of 27 (67%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with a SUPER SIDE SITUATION that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it for his 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month for Sunday afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row after their 18-16 upset loss at home against Arizona as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 33-30 loss at home against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: I am not terribly surprised that Los Angeles has failed to meet their sky-high expectations so far this season. Super Bowls are not won before Halloween — and the schedule was brutal. It appears head coach Sean McVay concluded that simply punting on their opening game in Australia against San Francisco by flying in to Melbourne 28 hours before kickoff was the prudent long-term decision. Then losing at Denver and then at home against Buffalo in overtime are understandable. But last week’s upset loss at home against the Cardinals was the first time when this squad played a true clunker. Certainly, injuries are playing a role. Pass rush extraordinaire (and one of their new shiny toys) Myles Garrett has not played since the opening week in Australia. Wide receiver Davante Adams is likely out the rest of the season. Nose tackle Poona Ford is out for the season with a ruptured tricep. Defensive end Kobie Turner and linebacker Nate Landman are out for this game. Tight end Terrance Ferguson is out on offense. But the team is optimistic that wide receiver Puka Nacua will be able to play after tweaking his calf in Thursday’s practice. McVay still has a bevy of tight ends to operate 13 personnel with three tight ends if he wants — and Tuta Atwell is a capable second wide receiver for two or three wide receiver sets with Xavier Smith. This should be a heavy run-game script for the Rams against a Raiders defense that ranks just 16th in the league in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Their defense still has defensive tackle Aaron Donald, linebacker Byron Young, and their new cornerbacks from Kansas City, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. For the first time this season, this is a “circle the wagons” moment for Los Angeles as falling to 2-5 with their remaining schedule would be ominous. McVay has been very reliable in getting his team ready to play when facing adversity. The Rams are 35-20-3 ATS in his tenure following a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing their last game. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their 28 games after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 10 games after a loss at home to a fellow NFC West rival with McVay. With Matthew Stafford under center, the Rams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored in the regular season since the start of last season. And while they lost to a Cardinals team coached by first-year head coach Mike LaFleur, Los Angeles with McVay has still won 22 of their 27 encounters with a rookie head coach — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in those 27 games. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The Raiders were one of the surprise teams in the league by winning their first three contests. But let’s remember that the combined record of Miami, the LA Chargers, and New Orleans is 2-15 — and only the Saints are not winless entering Week Seven. Las Vegas is getting outgained by -25.7 net Yards-Per-Game. For comparison's sake, the Rams are outgaining their opponents by +107.4 net YPG — and their last three losses have been by a combined nine points. Los Angeles could easily be 4-2 or 3-3 coming into this game. The Raiders do not have a good home field advantage — it’s ironic that the Rams get to make the trip east to Las Vegas to seize a better home crowd advantage than they often enjoy at home at SoFi Stadium, with Allegiant Stadium just a four-hour drive on I-15. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range since last season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of his last 10 starts against non-conference opponents, with his team failing to cover the point spread by -8.1 PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 20 road games as a favorite since McVay became their head coach. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.