Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 7/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday morning in the British Open is with the Ryan Fox versus Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head props. Fox has won two PGA Tour events in the last two months after his first place finish at the RBC Canadian Open last month. Fox is very good on links courses. He won the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Championship which was designed by Harry Cort who is also responsible for the Royal Portrush Golf Course which hosts the Open Championship this week. He ranks 23rd on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 20th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting on slower greens such as this week’s fescue putting surface. He is one of the fewer professionals in the field this week that they played this course for the 2019 British Open when finished in a tie for 16th place. Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut at that 2019 British Open — he has missed the cut three times in his ten Open Championships. He comes off a tie for 13th place at the Rocket Classic last month which was his best result since winning the Sentry in first week in January. His struggles have been with his driver as he ranks 132nd in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also ranks just 103rd in Round One Scoring in 2025. Take Fox (7148) versus Matsuyama (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer has CA$HED EIGHT 1ST PLACES in his last 60 Golf Betting Reports after DELIVERING his Top Overlay Bet on Keegan Bradley in June who WON the PGA Travelers Championship at 35-1 odds! Frank has 18 FIRST PLACE WINNERS in his last 103 Golf Reports (three in ’25!) with his regulars now enjoying over 69 WEEKS OF FREE ROLLS for 2025 and beyond! Frank’s PGA British Open Betting Report includes his BEST BET WAGER to win; his TOP OVERLAY BET that identifies the most value; and his LONG SHOT BET of a golfer outside the top ten favorites to win — along with BONUS HEAD-TO-HEAD PROP BETS with his three favorite golfers as he continues his 19 of 30 (63%) and 75 of 126 (60%) golf props runs! BANK on Frank!

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves completes its European joint venture with the DP Tour this week with the 153rd British Open. For the third time in its history, the Royal Portrush Golf Club in Portrush, Northern Ireland, hosts this event. Shane Lowry won here in 2019, the last time the Open Championship was here. This is a links course with narrow fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7381 yards, this Harry Cort-designed course is a Par 71 event. The 156 professionals will contend with 35 bunkers and no water hazards. The undulated and sloping fescue greens average 5400 square feet. The top 70 scorers (plus ties) will make the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7149) versus Sepp Straka (7012) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:25 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick seems to be peaking at the right time to win his second major championship. Beginning with his tie for 23rd place at the Truist Championship in May, he has made seven straight cuts with three top tens during that span. He comes off a fourth-place finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he putted very well on the familiar fescue greens for the Englishman. His previous start was a tie for eighth place at the Rocket Classic in Detroit three weeks ago. What was most encouraging from that performance was that he gained +3.9 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also gained +5.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fitzpatrick thrives on links courses. His eight international victories include winning the Alfred Dunhill Championship in Scotland last year, which is a links course designed by Harry Colt, who is also responsible for this track. Fitzpatrick has two victories on the PGA Tour, including the 2022 US Open — so he can compete in stacked fields.  

Fitzpatrick is linked with Sepp Straka in Round One head-to-head props. Straka has enjoyed a great season — and he comes off a seventh place last week at the PGA Genesis Scottish Invitational. But he has taken on a very busy schedule that may be finally taking its toll. In his two previous tournaments, he missed the cut at the US Open before settling for a tie for 45th place at the Travelers Championship. Frankly, Straka’s game may not be a great fit for links golf (even when considering last week’s result). Straka ranks 141st in Driving Distance, which drags down his Shots-Game: Off-the-Tee ranking down to 48th on the PGA Tour. The fescue has been a challenge as well — he has struggled across the pond with both his chipping and his putting. Straka ranks 110th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is very accurate with his irons — but if he misses the small greens that only average 5400 square feet, he will get into trouble. He did finish in second place at the 2023 British Open — but he has also missed the cut at one of his three Open Championships. That 2023 British Open was played at Royal Livermore which is a better fit for Straka’s skill set. The putting surface as Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend rather than pure fescue. The fairways are very narrow there as well which put a premium on hitting the short stuff to avoid the very thick fescue rough. Additionally, Straka ranks 117th on the PGA Tour this season in Round One Scoring. Take Fitzpatrick (7149) versus Straka (7150) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves completes its European joint venture with the DP Tour this week with the 153rd British Open. For the third time in its history, the Royal Portrush Golf Club in Portrush, Northern Ireland, hosts this event. Shane Lowry won here in 2019 the last time the Open Championship was here. This is a links course with narrow fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7381 yards, this Harry Cort-designed course is a Par 71 event. The 156 professionals will contend with 35 bunkers and no water hazards. The undulated and sloping fescue greens average 5400 square feet. The top 70 scorers (plus ties) will make the weekend cut.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7158) versus Scottie Scheffler (7157) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 4:58 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Jon Rahm, who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. There was a narrative gaining traction after the Masters that Rahm has taken a step back since winning a green jacket in 2023. After finishing in a tie for 14th place at Augusta National, he had only two results inside the top nine in the seven majors he played since that triumph. Golf pundits love to dog the LIV Tour since it is a safe way to express Islamophobia (and I am no fan of tyrannical dictatorships nor regimes that assassinate journalists, but it is quite rich for these golf “experts” to suddenly criticize professional athletes wanting to get paid more money). The facts are that Rahm has finished in the top 11 in 21 straight LIV tournaments after finishing in second place last week at the LIV Andalucia event. He shot a cool 64 in his final round of that tournament. After his tie for eighth place at the PGA Championship (where he was in contention with Scheffler on Sunday before imploding) and then a tie for seventh place at the US Open last month, he has been in the mix in the last six golf tournaments with the best players in the world competing including his tie for seventh place at the British Open last year before a tie for fifth place at the Men’s Olympic event. Rahm thrives on long, tight tracks like this. He has gained strokes versus the field with his driver in every start this year. It was his putter that let him down at the US Open last month — but he had gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting at both previous majors this year. Generally, he has a strong short game with his scrambling and putting. Frankly, he is one of the few professionals on the tour with the mental game and discipline to compete with Scottie Scheffler on Sunday (despite his failure to do so at the PGA Championship). And he has experience at this course after finishing in a tie for ninth place at the British Open here in 2019. In his last four British Opens, Rahm has a tie for second place, a tie for third place, and a tie for seventh place.

Rahm is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. I don’t love confronting Scheffler in a head-to-head prop — but you should be able to get strokes with Rahm for Day One props. Scheffler finished in eighth place last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he struggled with his putter. While Scheffler’s floor is very high, he has not finished in the top five in three straight tournaments after winning the Memorial Tournament in May. Besides that, I don’t love Scheffler at this course that will reward distance off-the-tee. Scheffler ranks only 52nd in Driving Distance — and he is 134th in Total Driving Efficiency. The British Open is also the major championship where he has had his least success. His best finish was a tie for eighth place in 2021 — and two of his four results were no better than a tie for 21st place. We won this prop for the US Open when Rahm’s Round One 69 bested Scheffler by four strokes. Take Rahm (7158) versus Scheffler (7157) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.