Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (927) versus the Kansas City Royals (928), listing both starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (49-39) had won two games in a row before their 6-1 loss at home against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Kansas City (35-53) has lost three games in a row after their 5-2 loss at home against Tampa Bay on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has become quite resilient after losses lately, as they won 12 of their last 13 games after losing their last contest. They have won 9 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs, they have then won 8 of those contests. The Phillies have won 15 of their last 20 road games when listed as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher — and with them priced right around my -150 price threshold, it is of note that they won a dominant 28 of their last 33 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, they have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Jesus Luzardo gets the ball tonight. The southpaw has a 6-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be getting much better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.32 and 3.03 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 3.23. He is due his share of breaks when considering the .339 opponent’s Batting Average for the Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him. His strikeout rate of 28.0% remains strong this season. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already made Luzardo one of their targets because in his last four starts he sports a 1.85 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in those 24 1/3 innings. His rare struggles this season have been at home, where he has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts — but in his nine starts on the road, he enjoys a 1.55 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He gets a struggling Royals team that ranks 21st and 23rd in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Kansas City also ranks 22nd and 26th in those categories since May 1st. The Royals have only scored two runs in their last two games — and they have lost 19 of their 25 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their previous game. Furthermore, they have lost 35 of their 52 games after a loss this season, including 14 of those 21 games played at home. They have also lost 22 of their last 33 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have lost seven of their last eight games, they have then lost 25 of their last 37 games after losing four or five of their last six games. At home, they have lost 4 games in a row and 11 of their last 15. They have lost 10 of their 16 games at home with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They have also 10 of their last 15 home games when priced as a money-line underdog. They counter with Michael Wacha, who has a 5-5 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression from these baseline numbers. His xERA sits at 3.92. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.35 and 4.20 moving forward. Not surprisingly, he has been saddled with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in his last six starts. The Phillies rank 12th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. 

FINAL TAKE: The Royals have lost 25 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning record, including 9 of those 13 games played at home. 10* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (927) versus the Kansas City Royals (928), listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.