Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 12/28:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday night is with the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles (19-10) has lost three games in a row after their 119-96 loss at home against Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Lakers gave covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games at home when favored. Sacramento (8-23) has won two of their last three games after a 113-107 upset victory against Dallas as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games as an underdog. Take the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* AFC North Game of the Month earlier today on the Cleveland Brown’s UPSET VICTORY against Pittsburgh in a 1-1 afternoon mark in the NFL (losing after taking the bait on Tampa Bay)! Now Frank furthers his 19 of 29 (66%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight’s Chicago-San Francisco O/U winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET for his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, is still on a 273 of 473 (58%) NFL Prime-Time run despite last night’s struggle! Frank has 12 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season, along with 32 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 54 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 74 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank furthers his 43 of 76 (57%) NFL sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays! with tonight’s Chicago-San Francisco ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL! 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (430) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (429). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (11-4) has won five games in a row after their 48-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Chicago (11-4) has won seven of their last eight games after their 22-16 win in overtime at home against Green Bay last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago’s victory against the Packers was agonizing for those of us on Green Bay. Jordan Love got injured in the first half — but the Packers were still competitive with backup Malik Willis under center. Green Bay took a 16-6 lead with just over five minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they squandered that lead, and the game went into overtime when Willis then injured his throwing shoulder, hindering the Packers' opportunity to win that game. The Bears ended up outgaining Green Bay by +16 net yards — and they benefited from a +1 net turnover margin. To paraphrase Jessie from Breaking Bad: “(Chicago) can’t keep getting away with this!” This is a team fueled by an incredible — and likely unsustainable — +21 net turnover margin. That is not only the best mark in the NFL, but it is +6 turnovers over the second-best team in terms of this metric. Their 31 takeaways lead the league. Yes, credit goes to rookie head coach Ben Johnson for helping second-year quarterback Caleb Williams not to force passes and risk interceptions. But they are recovering 64.5% of their fumbles so far this season. C’mon, the Regression Gods are on high alert. Chicago is only outgaining their opponents by +23.0 net Yards-Per-Game, which more often equates to teams with a 9-6 or 8-7 8-6. They have a 7-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession after last week, including five too close for comfort wins against Las Vegas, Washington, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants, who are already out of the playoff hunt. The Bears are only tied for 14th in Net Expected Points Added per Play. The 49ers rank sixth in that metric, despite all their injuries, which include having to play Mac Jones at quarterback for several games. Chicago is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing the Packers in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. And with Williams under center, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games when playing with extended rest — and all six of those games were on the road when they were getting the points. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games with Brock Purdy under center when playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games following a game against an opponent from the AFC. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games. At home, they are outgaining their opponents by +59.5 net Yards-Per-Game due to their defense that is only giving up 302.3 total YPG. 

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has won and covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 games between these two teams. That is not a good sign for this Bears team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 appearances on Sunday Night Football. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (430) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (429). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (429) and the San Francisco 49ers (430). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won seven of their last eight games after their 22-16 win in overtime at home against Green Bay last Saturday. San Francisco (11-4) has won five games in a row after their 48-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I am a bit wary of falling into an “over trap” when one of the teams involved (San Francisco) comes off an impressive offensive display. The 49ers’ offense looked unstoppable against the Colts in a game particularly frustrating to me since I was on Indianapolis and the Under. I don’t want to be overreacting to recency bias. The case supported the Over is bolster that in NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when the road team has a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, comes off a win, and is now facing a winning team, that game finished Over the Total in 26 of those last 34 (77%) circumstances. That empirical angle suggests that in expected high-scoring games, if the road is good and playing with momentum against another quality team, the scoring should go back and forth. I got the game script all wrong last week, as I presumed Indianapolis would try to slow the game down with Jonathan Taylor running the ball. Instead, Philip Rivers defied time by passing for 277 yards. I wanted to see how Rivers would perform today against Jacksonville — and he only threw for 147 yards this afternoon. Perhaps Rivers' turning back time had more to do with the banged-up 49ers defense that is missing several key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. I definitely need to raise the threshold of evidence of when I endorse Unders in Niners’ games under head coach Kyle Shanahan — especially against good teams. San Francisco has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in December. With team trends like that demonstrating the personality of the Niners under Shanahan, it is tough for me to get off the Over in this spot. Chicago’s improving rushing attack has helped their defense and contributed to their playing two straight Unders. After holding Cleveland scoreless in the first half two weeks ago, they went into halftime last week trailing by a 6-0 score to the Packers. But those strong defensive efforts trigger an empirical angle supporting the Over that has been 81% effective since 2016. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games — and in the last 31 games involving one team that has scored at least 25 points three straight games facing a team that has not allowed more than seven points in the first half in their last two games, 25 of those contests finished Over the Total. The Chicago defense is surrendering 370.8 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which is resulting in 29.0 PPG. In their 8 games on the road this season under head coach Ben Johnson, they have played 5 of those games Over the Total. And while the 49ers are allowing their opponents to generate 5.7 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who give up 5.65 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: In the 49ers last 18 games at home when favored by -3 to -7 points, they have played 16 of those games Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (429) and the San Francisco 49ers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (418) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (417). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-12) has lost four games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-6) has won three games in a row after their 29-24 upset win at Detroit on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The weather should play in the hands of the underdogs this afternoon. While the temperature will be in the 60s, rain is expected with 20 miles per hour winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour. Cleveland should be motivated to screw their rival in this one. The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a victory — but a loss would then force an all-or-nothing showdown with Baltimore next week. Despite losing to Buffalo at home last week, they outgained them by +35 net yards. The Browns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing two or more games in a row. At home, they are outgaining their opponents by +22.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 249.1 total YPG, which is resulting in just 19.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Steelers are playing this game shorthanded. Wide receiver D.J. Metcalf is suspended after his altercation with a fan last week. Wide receiver Calvin Austin III is out with an injury. That leaves the wide receivers available to quarterback Aaron Rodgers pretty light — and passing downfield will already be a challenge given the strong winds. All this will allow the Browns' defense to stack the box to defend against the horizontal offensive approach this offense will take with two and three tight ends on the field. Pittsburgh’s offensive line and defense are also missing starters. With the Total set in the 34.5 point range, it is the lowest over/under number in a game Rodgers has ever played in. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games with the Total set no higher than 35. 

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers won the first meeting between these two teams back on October 12th by a 23-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite at home. But the Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when avenging a loss. The home team has covered the point spread in 13 of the last 16 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 25* AFC North Game of the Month is with the Cleveland Browns (418) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (417). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (421) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (422). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 23-20 upset loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (6-9) has lost two games in a row after their 45-21 loss against Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was one of my sleeper teams to make a run to the Super Bowl this season, but injuries decimated their roster midway through the season. They have failed to meet point spread expectations in seven straight games — but at least I got off the bandwagon before that run. After suffering three straight upset losses against fellow NFC South rivals, I think this is a good “get right” game for them. They still control their own destiny — winning this game and then beating Carolina for the NFC South title places them as the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs and hosting a postseason game in two weeks. That the Buccaneers are still favored in this game is telling — NFL favorites coming off three straight losses to divisional rivals have covered the point spread in 8 straight games with those eight teams covering the spread by a comfortable +15.8 PPG. Tampa Bay is slowly getting healthier — their talented wide receiver room is back to full strength, and running back Bucky Irving is healthy again. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by six points or less, including six of those eight games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games, including six of their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Miami surrendered 407 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers was better than I expected him to be, as he completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards. But he did throw two interceptions without a touchdown pass. In hindsight, it makes sense why the team selected him in the seventh round of the NFL draft last April, since his good accuracy with intermediate passes is similar to Tua Tagovailoa’s strength. In theory, he could operate in the same system. But he is not as talented as Tagovailoa — and he has flaws that, when other NFL observers fail to recognize, only reaffirm my discovery that these folks do not watch much college football. As was made painfully evident in Texas’s college football playoff run last year, Ewers does not have the strongest of arms — and he is not accurate in a more vertical passing game. He also was not able to execute the timing routes that head coach Steve Sarkisian likes to install. Too often, he resorts to playground antics in the pocket — and I still don’t think McDaniel has had enough time to coach this out of him. He is going to face a ton of blitzes from Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles — and the Tampa Bay defense is better than Cincinnati’s defensive unit (even when banged up). Miami under McDaniel has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games when Tagovailoa is not their starting quarterback. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 41 games when listed in the +/- 4-point range. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 22 games under McDaniel when getting single digits as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: A trip to Miami may be just what the doctor ordered for the Buccaneers since they have beaten them in seven straight occasions while covering the point spread in 6 of those contests. 25* NFL Non-Conference Blowout of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (421) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.