Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 6/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday in MLB is with the Athletics with the money-line versus Colorado listing both starting pitchers Joey Estes and Kyle Freeland. The Athletics (34-35) has won three of their four games at their temporary home at the Las Vegas Ballpark in Summerlin after a 6-4 victory against the Rockets yesterday. The Athletics have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring six or more runs in their last game. They have won 12 of their last 19 games against teams that are winning no more than 38% of their games. Colorado (26-44) has lost two games in a row and six of their last eight contests — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 road games after losing two or more games in a row. The Rockies have also lost 15 of their last 21 road games as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take the Athletics with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck - Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 22 (73%) NBA Game of the Year run in the NBA Finals/Conference Finals after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on San Antonio in Game Seven of that series two weeks ago! Frank tends to save his best for last since more data offers more evidence to reach better conclusions — he CA$HED his 25* NBA Game of the Year for the third straight season on June 13th last year on Oklahoma City in Game Four of the NBA Finals — improving his 8 of 10 (80%) NBA #1 Game/Total of the Year mark! Now Frank furthers his 15 of 24 (63%) NBA playoff sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and his 25 of 39 (64%) NBA Finals featured plays run with his #1 NBA Game of the Year for the 2025-26 season for the New York-San Antonio Game Five ATS winner on ABC-TV at 8:40 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is still on an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer run despite getting the USMNT-Paraguay Under wrong last night — he maintains a 26 of 41 (63%) Soccer streak! Frank continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on a 12 of 18 (67%) World Cup run — and he furthers his 20 of 32 (63%) WORLD CUP TOTALS TEAR with his careful evidence-based approach (versus quick takes from vibes) with the Scotland-Haiti O/U winner on Fox-TV at 9:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 6/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Haiti plus the goal-line versus Scotland in Group D action in the World Cup. I suspect that Haiti is significantly underrated relative to the rankings systems. The FIFA shady rankings system has them at 83rd in the world. The ELO rankings use the same methodology as it does in ranking world chess players in a system that emphasizes actual results versus expected results against the quality of opposition — it ranks Haiti 73rd. Nate Silver has reworked his Soccer Power Index from last decade for a cheekily branded PELE system that puts Haiti 76th in the world. All these models need to be taken with a grain of salt — and then add a few more dashes of salt when it comes to assessing Haiti. Les Grenadiers have recently enjoyed a massive improvement of talent with three dual-national citizens elected to switch allegiances to enjoy starting XI opportunities at the World Cup for Haiti — and these ranking systems fail to take this into account. Wolverhampton midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde switched allegiances from mighty France to Haiti for a high-profile role. Center back Hannes Delcroix bypassed Belgium to play for Les Grenadiers. Forward Woobens Pacius switched his allegiance from Canada to Haiti. Add those three players to a core of an experienced old guard — and manager Sebastien Migne’s collection of players becomes much more interesting. What we certainly know is that his group is resilient. Given civil unrest in Haiti, where gangs took over their home stadium, the national team chose to play their home matches in the qualification stage 500 miles away in Curacao. Yet they qualified for the second time in their history — and they posted four clean sheets and held seven of their eight opponents to just one goal. The canary in the coalmine result then came 11 days ago when they crushed New Zealand, a national team with a solid international reputation, by a 4-0 score. For comparison's sake, the Kiwis rank 85th by FIFA, 72nd by ELO, and 74th by PELE — and the Haitians crushed them. Their last friendly was eight days ago when they lost to Peru by a 2-1 score. For reference, that South American squad ranks 53rd, 46th, and 42nd in the FIFA, ELO, and PELE rankings. Scotland does not have a dynamic number 9 center forward at his disposal — and his front line lacks creative talent. The knee injury to veteran midfielder Billy Gilmour is not helping his cause either. The Tartan Army has played two straight friendlies this month where they scored four goals. Those results need context. Their 4-0 win against Bolivia was on a neutral pitch — and the Bolivians are notorious for playing much worse away from home (and I don’t know how motivated that team was to play a friendly when they have no other competitive plans this summer). All four of their goals in their 4-1 win at home against Curacao took place after a red flag in the 38th minute, which left their Caribbean opponent with only ten men. In all, I see one underrated team battling one overrated team in this one. Take Haiti plus the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 22 (73%) NBA Game of the Year run in the NBA Finals/Conference Finals after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on San Antonio in Game Seven of that series two weeks ago! Frank tends to save his best for last since more data offers more evidence to reach better conclusions — he CA$HED his 25* NBA Game of the Year for the third straight season on June 13th last year on Oklahoma City in Game Four of the NBA Finals — improving his 8 of 10 (80%) NBA #1 Game/Total of the Year mark! Now Frank furthers his 15 of 24 (63%) NBA playoff sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and his 25 of 39 (64%) NBA Finals featured plays run with his #1 NBA Game of the Year for the 2025-26 season for the New York-San Antonio Game Five ATS winner on ABC-TV at 8:40 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is still on an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer run despite getting the USMNT-Paraguay Under wrong last night — he maintains a 26 of 41 (63%) Soccer streak! Frank continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on a 12 of 18 (67%) World Cup run — and he furthers his 20 of 32 (63%) WORLD CUP TOTALS TEAR with his careful evidence-based approach (versus quick takes from vibes) with the Scotland-Haiti O/U winner on Fox-TV at 9:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Group C match of the World Cup between Scotland (225249) and Haiti (225250). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D0-L0) qualified for the 2026 World Cup with a W4-D1-L1 mark in the qualification stage. Haiti (W0-D0-L0) punched their second-ever World Cup ticket with a W6-D2-L2 mark in the qualification stage. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: First and foremost, I suspect that Haiti is significantly underrated relative to the rankings systems. The FIFA shady rankings system has them at 83rd in the world. The ELO rankings use the same methodology as it does in ranking world chess players in a system that emphasizes actual results versus expected results against the quality of opposition — it ranks Haiti 73rd. Nate Silver has reworked his Soccer Power Index from last decade for a cheekily branded PELE system that puts Haiti 76th in the world. All these models need to be taken with a grain of salt — and then add a few more dashes of salt when it comes to assessing Haiti. Les Grenadiers have recently enjoyed a massive improvement of talent with three dual-national citizens elected to switch allegiances to enjoy starting XI opportunities at the World Cup for Haiti — and these ranking systems fail to take this into account. Wolverhampton midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde switched allegiances from mighty France to Haiti for a high-profile role. Center back Hannes Delcroix bypassed Belgium to play for Les Grenadiers. Forward Woobens Pacius switched his allegiance from Canada to Haiti. Add those three players to a core of an experienced old guard — and manager Sebastien Migne’s collection of players becomes much more interesting. What we certainly know is that his group is resilient. Given civil unrest in Haiti, where gangs took over their home stadium, the national team chose to play their home matches in the qualification stage 500 miles away in Curacao. Yet they qualified for the second time in their history — and they posted four clean sheets and held seven of their eight opponents to just one goal. Their keeper is the 38-year-old Johny Placide, who plays professionally in France for Basta. He has plenty of international experience, including some deep runs for Haiti in the CONCACAF Gold Cup over the last decade. The veteran is steady and a calming influence. In their final two qualifying matches last November, Placide registered two straight clean sheets in a massive 1-0 victory against Costa Rica before a 2-0 win against Nicaragua. Their two friendlies in March this year resulted in a 1-0 loss against Tunisia and a 1-1 draw against Iceland. The canary in the coalmine result then came on 11 days ago when they crushed New Zealand, a national team with a solid international reputation, by a 4-0 score. For comparison's sake, the Kiwis rank 85th by FIFA, 72nd by ELO, and 74th by PELE — and the Haitians crushed them. Their last friendly was eight days ago when they lost to Peru by a 2-1 score. For reference, that South American squad ranks 53rd, 46th, and 42nd in the FIFA, ELO, and PELE rankings. Now with the stakes raised to the limit, I suspect Migne will embrace a defensive posture in the low blocks where scoring opportunities will come from the legitimate speed on the wings in counter-attack. Haiti would love to qualify for the Knockout Stage — but simply securing a point at this event would be considered a success. The challenge these two sides have is that Brazil and Morocco, two teams ranked in the top seven in the world according to FIFA, are their remaining two Group Stage opponents. Scotland’s ambition is higher for this event. The Tartan Army will probably play this match on their front foot to attempt to claim the three points with a victory — that might be enough to seize one of the eight third-place Knockout Stage slots, given the two tough assignments against Brazil and Morocco pending. The problem for manager Steve Clarke is that his squad can struggle to break down their opponents when playing the aggressor. Scotland has found success when they adopt a defensive approach. Too often, they can lack direction when coaxed into controlling possession. Clarke does not have a dynamic number 9 center forward at his disposal — and his front line lacks creative talent. The knee injury to veteran midfielder Billy Gilmour is not helping his cause either. 

FINAL TAKE: This Total is creeping up to 3 in some spots — perhaps that is because bettors are seeing that the Tartan Army has played two straight friendlies this month where they scored four goals. Those results need context. Their 4-0 win against Bolivia was on a neutral pitch — and the Bolivians are notorious for playing much worse away from home (and I don’t know how motivated that team was to play a friendly when they have no other competitive plans this summer). All four of their goals in their 4-1 win at home against Curacao took place after a red flag in the 38th minute, which left their Caribbean opponent with only ten men. Haiti would love a 1-1 or nil-nil result. In Scotland’s last major international competition in the 2024 Euro, they scored only twice in three matches. 20* World Cup Scotland-Haiti Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the Group C match of the World Cup between Scotland (225249) and Haiti (225250). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in Game Five of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks (509) and the San Antonio Spurs (510). New York (69-32) has the opportunity to win the NBA championship tonight after their 107-106 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (75-30) attempts to keep their season alive, trailing 3-1 in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks shot 46.2% from the field on Wednesday, which was their best shooting effort in this series. And while the Spurs sleepwalked during the second half of that game, giving away the 29-point lead they had built up, the pressure was completely off New York as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from behind the arc. Overall, the Knicks made 46.9% of their shots from behind the arc, which was the best outside shooting in their last eight contests. But by allowing the Spurs to nail 39.5% of their shots from distance — including  14 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first half — New York played their worst defensive game in defending the 3-point line in their last 19 contests. The Knicks have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they go back on the road, where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog, getting up to six points. New York has also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. San Antonio’s 39.5% shooting clip from behind the arc in Game Four was their best mark in this series. But by allowing the Knicks to make 46.2% of their shots, they played their worst game on defense in their last six contest. Even worse, the 46.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc by New York was the least effective defensive effort from the perimeter in the Spurs’ last 70 contests. San Antonio has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss by six points or less. The Spurs return home, where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210s. They have also played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when trailing in this postseason. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 3 of the first 4 games in this series Under the Total — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games against each other Under the Total when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA New York-San Antonio ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in Game Five of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks (509) and the San Antonio Spurs (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (510) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (509) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. San Antonio (75-30) attempts to pull themselves off the mat after their 107-106 loss on the road against the Knicks as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (69-32) has the opportunity to win the NBA championship tonight with a 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINTS: San Antonio suffered the biggest letdown in NBA Finals history by blowing a 29-point lead in Game Four. All other handicapping considerations become secondary to this question: how will they respond after such a truly epic collapse? Hopefully, this is one of those moments where my years (decades, oy) of handicapping experience will help inform my answer to that question. So, let’s look at some history. The previous biggest collapse in NBA Finals history was in Game Four in 2008 when the Boston Celtics (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen) rallied from a 24-point deficit to stun the Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers responded by winning Game Five by a 103-98 score. But I think the more apt historical example is the 1987 Detroit Pistons, when they seemingly stole Game Five in the Eastern Conference Finals in Boston against the Celtics before Isiah Thomas was too quick to make an inbound pass to ice the game, which Larry Bird swiped before passing to Dennis Johnson for a buzzer-beating winning layup. I think this example is more precise for three reasons: (1) That Pistons team, like this Spurs team, was still on the ascent, learning how to win tough games like that; (2) Boston, like the Knicks, stole that win at home; (3) That Celtics team, as opposed to this New York squad, were already champions. Detroit rebounded by winning Game Six back at home by a 113-111 score before a heartbreaking Game Seven back in Boston Garden, 117–114. Now I concede that these examples are not perfectly applicable. The Pistons did not cover the 3.5-point spread in that Game Six, nor did the Lakers cover the 6.5-point spread in that Game Five in 2008. But two caveats make me comfortable invoking those examples. First, if the fundamental question is whether or not this San Antonio team will be too emotionally deflated to do what it takes to win Game Five tonight, those Detroit and LA examples indicate deflation is not inevitable. Second, in the NBA Finals, teams that win the game are now on a 65-4-3 ATS run for also covering the point spread — meaning, if you think the Spurs win tonight, there is strong evidence that they will also cover the point spread. Sticking with history, the flip side of this coin that I find even more compelling is that the Knicks seemed primed for an emotional letdown. Really, it wasn’t just one miracle of the 29-point comeback. There was the double-miracle given the Hand of God O.G. Anunoby shot. And then the Knicks' fans celebrated the title with the celebs in Madison Square for hours. It’s a fait accompli now, right? It looked like a great time, but that’s not great business, moving forward. The Knicks' fans celebrated the title in MSG for hours on Wednesday. Is the lesson that this New York team just learned that they are inevitable? If so, this will only fuel their complacency as they dig themselves yet another hole before attempting to trigger the dopamine hit of saving themselves one last time. Usually, that is a recipe for failure. The history lesson I use for situations like this is the 2019 Minnesota Vikings. In the NFC Divisional playoffs in New Orleans against the Saints, trailing 29-24 on their own 39-yard line with time on the clock for only one more play, Case Keenum connected on a 27-yard pass to Stefon Diggs, who then coaxed a missed tackle by Marcus Williams to then score on a 61-yard touchdown pass as time expired. Playing with proverbial “house money” with seemingly the Gods on their sides, they got crushed in Philadelphia by the Eagles the next week after the “Minneapolis Miracle” by a 38-7 score. Again, not a perfect example — but it illustrates the emotional letdown that sports can suffer after miracle victories like New York just pulled off.  Admittedly, those Pistons and Lakers teams I referenced had a historical roster of champions. We don’t know if Victor Wembanyama will be a future NBA champion. LeBron James and Michael Jordan needed to suffer some hard lessons before reaching the mountain top. We do know that Wemby considers himself a future champion — so, in that sense, he knows he has to show up tonight. The evidence indicates that the Spurs respond well to adversity. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing on the road. They have also been on a 16-2 straight-up run after losing two of their last three games — and the important datapoint here is that their average winning margin in those games is +9.3 Points-Per-Game. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when laying up to six points — and I find it interesting that most books are not budging off the 5.5-point spread despite the public money coming in on the Knicks. Furthermore, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 playoff games this postseason when trailing in the series, including both games when facing playoff elimination. New York has been susceptible to letdowns on the road as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after a win by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road when playing with two days of rest. The Knicks have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 road games against teams from the Western Conference. 

FINAL TAKE: We were on the Under in Game Four (which, fortunately, came through). The thing about blowing a 29-point lead is that you had to seize a 29-point lead. The Knicks' comeback was fueled by their 11 of 20 (55%) shooting from behind the arc. For the game, New York nailed 46.9% of their 3-pointers, their best shooting from behind the arc in their last eight games. It was the Spurs' worst perimeter defensive effort in their last 70 contests. But their tactical adjustments I detailed in my report for Game Four that they made in Game Three mostly worked before complacency set in: moving Wembanyama off Karl-Antony Towns on defense so he roam the paint and protect the rim; collapsing to the hoop on Jalen Brunson’s attempts to drive to the hoop in isolation off the pick-and-roll by collapsing to the hoop, daring him to make plays for his teammates; more four-guard sets with Wemby surrounded by De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell, offering them more flexibility in defending Brunson since all four of those guards can match up against him. Did San Antonio lose the battle, while slowly demonstrating that they are winning the war, save for the Knicks making 46.9% of their 3s? On that last point, teams in the NBA Finals coming off a game in this series where they nailed at least 46% of their shots from behind the arc are then 1-10-1 ATS in the next game. If there is a benefit to being an NBA player on the wrong side of a historic meltdown is that redemption is only 72 hours away — and Wemby could definitely use the second day off to rest and emotionally prepare for this moment. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (510) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.