Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 5/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Colorado Rockies with the money-line versus the San Francisco Giants listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Ryan Feltner. Colorado (21-37) snapped a five-game losing streak with  an 8-6 win at home against the Giants last night. The Rockies have now won 8 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 38-46% range. They have also won 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 11-11.5 range. San Francisco (22-35) has lost four games in a row and eight of their last ten contests — and they have then lost 5 straight road games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Giants have also lost 13 of their last 16 road games after losing their last game. Take Colorado with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 15 of 21 (71%) NBA Game of the Year run in the Conference Finals/NBA Finals — and now Frank furthers his 14 of 21 (67%) NBA playoff sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with his 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year for tonight’s San Antonio-Oklahoma City ATS winner on NBC-TV at 8:15 PM ET! DON’T MISS IT!

Frank is on a 9 of 12 (75%) All-Sports run since Monday after CA$HING his 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year earlier today with the Arsenal-PSG Under (his PSG side play either pushed or lost depending on one’s line)! Now Frank furthers his 4 of 5 (80%) NBA/NHL postseason run this month with the Spurs-Thunder O/U winner on NBC-TV at 8:15 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (567) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (568) in Game Seven of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: San Antonio (73-27) forced this decisive Game Seven with their 118-91 upset win at home against the Thunder as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oklahoma City (75-21) has lost two of their last three games in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I suspect the paradigm is changing regarding Under trends when late in a series in the NBA postseason. Unfortunately, the Spurs dominated the Thunder via a 32-13 run in the third quarter in Game Six on Thursday to squander our Over play in that game — but I expect Oklahoma City to be better on offense back at home in Game Seven after only making 37.2% of their shots in that game. The latest innovation throughout the league is to play at a fast pace with the ambition of creating high-quality shots early in the shot clock — and that dynamic simply neutralizes the tendency for big games to devolve into rock fights. I adapted quicker to these changes in college basketball — but I trusted the empirical situational data in the NBA playoffs too long this postseason. Now that does not suddenly make me a zombie to the Over. Ultimately, we are betting numbers — and then assessing the specific matchup remains essential. Four of the six games have seen at least 231 combined points (albeit Game One saw only 202 combined points in regulation time before a whopping 35 combined points were scored in the five minutes of overtime, so I’m not sure what to do with that game). San Antonio most definitely wants to speed this game up. They are averaging 99.43 possessions per game in the postseason, the second-most of all 16 playoff teams. The Thunder are an outstanding defensive team that limits their opponents to 107.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Spurs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 108.0 PPG. But playing fast can lead to mistakes, which is Oklahoma City’s bread-and-butter. The Thunder have forced at least 15 turnovers in four of the six games in this series — and all four of those games finished Over the Total. San Antonio has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams that are winning 70% or more of their games. Additionally, they have played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City is happy to engage in a fast pace — the 97.02 possessions per game they are averaging in the postseason ranks sixth of all 16 playoff teams. If there is a silver lining from their 27-point loss on Thursday, it is that head coach Mark Daigneault was able to rest his starters in preparation for this game. The Thunder have played 10 of their 14 postseason games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings against each other Over the Total. 10* NBA San Antonio-Oklahoma City NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (567) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (568) in Game Seven of the Western Conference finals. REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio (73-27) forced this decisive Game Seven with their 118-91 upset win at home against the Thunder as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oklahoma City (75-21) has lost two of their last three games in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio entered this series with an experience disadvantage in the playoffs — but six games later, that intangible is somewhat neutralized. They have won two of the last three games in this series and seem to have more answers than questions at this point.  They went on a 20-0 run in the third quarter on Thursday in a dominant third quarter when they outscored Oklahoma City by a 32-13 margin. Their stifling defense limited the Thunder to just 6 of 28 shooting in that quarter, and just one made free throw to seize a 26-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. As it is, the Spurs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points, including 8 of those 11 games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 20 or more points, including 5 of those 6 games this season. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games with the Total set in the 210s. Oklahoma City is the defending NBA champions — but is the fire quite the same as what   Victor Wembanyama is feeling and trying to instill in his teammates? The Thunder are not at full strength with Ajay Mitchell out — and Jalen Williams will not play tonight after testing his groin injury for ten minutes off the bench in Game Six but not being effective. Without those two shot creators, the load is heavy on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who looks fatigued at this point in the series. He only made 6 of 18 shots in the field en route to 15 points in Game Six. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. The Thunder have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 close out games in a playoff series. 

FINAL TAKE: Post the bubble season in 2020, the home team has lost 11 of the last 20 Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs — so any home team presumption in these situations should be abandoned. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher, including 18 of those 27 games this season. San Antonio is outscoring their opponents by +8.4 Points-Per-Game — and the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games against teams that outscore their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (568). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal reached the finals of the European championship with their 2-1 aggregate score victory against Atletico Madrid in the semifinals earlier this month. Paris Saint-Germain advanced to the finals of the Champions League knockout stage with their 6-5 aggregate victory against Bayern Munich in their semifinal matchup that concluded over three weeks ago. This match takes place on a neutral pitch at Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary. 

REASONS TO TAKE PSG MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: PSG has been the best professional club in the world for the last 18 months or so.   They dominated the Champions League knockout stage last year, culminating in a 5-0 smashing of Inter Milan in last May’s championship match. Don’t read anything into their loss to Chelsea in the FIFA Club World Cup later in July — they were suffering from the “Manhattan flu” in this made-for-television event. They limped through the League Phase of the Champions League this year by accumulating only 14 points of 24 possible points — but they still qualified for the knockout stage easily. Since then, they have disposed of Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool, and then a very good Bayern Munich side in the semifinals. Les Parisiens are an offensive juggernaut that has scored in 27 straight matches across all competitions. But don’t underestimate PSG’s defensive prowess. Full backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are two of the best defensive players in the world. Center back Willian Pacho was outstanding in limiting Bayern Munich to just one goal in the second leg of their semifinal match in Germany on May 6th. Some observers may look to PSG’s 5-4 win at home in the first leg against the Bavarians and conclude that manager Luis Enrique’s side is looking for shootouts. That match was simply an exquisite display of offensive efficiency from both sides (and Bayern Munich emphasize their offensive tactics). In a match when the books installed the over/under at 3.5, there were only 3.06 combined expected Goals (xG) scored despite the nine combined actual goals. Subtly, Enrique has been preparing his team for a rock fight this month. They have not scored more than two goals in five straight matches across all competitions. In their last four matches across all competitions, they have surrendered only three goals — and they have registered two clean sheets. Arsenal has significant tactical concerns at right back in their defensive line heading into this match. Jurrien Timber has been out since March with a serious groin injury. Backup right back Ben White is injured. Arteta recently tried moving jack-of-all-trades midfielder Declan Rice to right back in a match against West Ham United, but it did not work. That leaves Arteta with two less-than-ideal options at right back. The good news is that Timber has been training and is able to take the pitch in this critical match. But, shaking off the proverbial rust and questions regarding his endurance remain. His other option is Cristian Mosquera, who has been his starter down the stretch this season — but he is very inexperienced for a big stage like this. Right back is the glaring weakness of this Gunners squad on the second-to-last day in May — and that is a frightening prospect against Les Parisiens, who enjoy a speedy and explosive offensive attack. Led by their front three of Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Desire Doue, PSG led all Champions League participants with 44 goals in the competition — and 23 of those goals came in their eight knockout stage matches. They have scored multiple goals in seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League. Dembele is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner after leading Les Bleus to Ligue 1 and the Champions League title last year. Kvaratskehlia might be even better after scoring 10 goals and adding six assists in the Champions League this season — those 16 goal involvements are the most in the competition. Doue is a rising superstar — just wait for when he teams with Kylian Mbappe for the French national team at the World Cup in two weeks. The Gunners’ bread-and-butter is to play rock-solid defense, limit mistakes, and execute at an elite level on set pieces. This formula allowed them to win the English Premier League this season because it presented a consistent approach with a high-floor of competency from week-to-week. But Arsenal did lose at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on April 19th in their biggest match of the season — and the Citizens deploy a similar, if less dynamic offensive attack as PSG. The Gunners eked out the EPL title when Man City later settled for a draw at Everton. But fatigue is now an issue for this group that was still playing meaningful matches two weeks ago. Six of their last seven victories in all competitions were by only one goal. And this remains a roster that lacks experience in winner-takes-all matches like this. Only Gabriel Jesus with Man City and Kai Havertz with Chelsea have played in a Champions League final — and neither is likely to be in manager Mikel Arteta’s starting XI in this one. Most of this PSG team played in last year’s Champions League final and FIFA Club World Cup matches. And the Parisiens have been able to rotate their starting XI to rest and prepare for this match since moving past Bayern Munich in this competition earlier this month, having locked up another Ligue 1 title.        

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal beat PSG in the League phase of the Champions League on October 1st in 2024 — but pay no attention to that result. Les Bleus only began to cook in January of 2025 when they signed Kvaratskhelia in the transfer portal from Napoli, who helped to unlock the talents of Dembele. These two teams played in the semifinals of the Champions League last season — and those results are instructive regarding how this rematch will play out. After winning the first leg by a 1-0 score, Les Parisiens took a commanding 3-0 lead at the 72nd-minute mark of the second leg before the Gunners had to change tactics and get very aggressive, which helped them score one goal before losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin. This is PSG’s third Champions League final since 2020 — and winning two European titles in a row would put them in rarified air. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal reached the finals of the European championship with their 2-1 aggregate score victory against Atletico Madrid in the semifinals earlier this month. Paris Saint-Germain advanced to the finals of the Champions League knockout stage with their 6-5 aggregate victory against Bayern Munich in their semifinal matchup that concluded over three weeks ago. This match takes place on a neutral pitch at Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta was already expected to embrace conservative and defensive tactics against PSG, then he most certainly will employ that strategy, given his tactical concerns at right back in his defensive line. Jurrien Timber has been out since March with a serious groin injury. Backup right back Ben White is injured. Arteta recently tried moving jack-of-all-trades midfielder Declan Rice to right back in a match against West Ham United, but it did not work. That leaves Arteta with two less-than-ideal options at right back. The good news is that Timber has been training and is able to take the pitch in this critical match. But, shaking off the proverbial rust and questions regarding his endurance remain. His other option is Cristian Mosquera, who has been his starter down the stretch this season — but he is very inexperienced for a big stage like this. In practice, Arteta is going to have to use both players with the prospect of an additional 30 minutes of extra time being played if this match is still tied after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time). Right back is the glaring weakness of this Gunners squad on the second to last day in May — and that is a frightening prospect against Les Parisiens, who enjoy a speedy and explosive offensive attack. Led by their front three of Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Desire Doue, PSG led all Champions League participants with 44 goals in the competition — and 23 of those goals came in their eight knockout stage matches. They have scored multiple goals in seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League. Dembele is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner after leading Les Bleus to Ligue 1 and the Champions League title last year. Kvaratskehlia might be even better after scoring 10 goals and adding six assists in the Champions League this season — those 16 goal involvements are the most in the competition. Doue is a rising superstar — just wait for when he teams with Kylian Mbappe for the French national team at the World Cup in two weeks. Arsenal’s bread-and-butter is to play rock-solid defense, limit mistakes, and execute at an elite level on set pieces. They only allowed six goals in their 14 matches in the Champions League — and their nine clean sheets were second most in the history of this competition to the 10 clean sheets registered by Real Madrid in the 2015-16 season. In their 38 matches in the English Premier League this season, the 27 goals they conceded were the fewest of all 20 sides. In their last seven matches across all competitions, they have only conceded twice and they registered five clean sheets. But before their 2-1 win against Crystal Palace, with both managers using rotated starting lineups in a match that had no bearing, Arsenal played three straight matches where they won by 1-0 scores. They have scored no more than one goal in 11 of their last 13 matches. Arteta’s vision is to win this match by a 1-0 score — and a nil-nil draw after regulation time is fine (when the books settle over/under wagers). Don’t underestimate PSG’s defensive prowess. Full backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are two of the best defensive players in the world. Center back Willian Pacho was outstanding in limiting Bayern Munich to just one goal in the second leg of their semifinal match in Germany on May 6th. Some observers may look to PSG’s 5-4 win at home in the first leg against the Bavarians and conclude that manager Luis Enrique’s side is looking for shootouts. That match was simply an exquisite display of offensive efficiency from both sides (and Bayern Munich emphasize their offensive tactics). In a match when the books installed the over/under at 3.5, there were only 3.06 combined expected Goals (xG) scored despite the nine combined actual goals. Subtly, Enrique has been preparing his team for a rock fight this month. They have not scored more than two goals in five straight matches across all competitions. In their last four matches across all competitions, they have surrendered only three goals — and they have registered two clean sheets. Arsenal is at their most dangerous when counter-attacking — and Enrique will be well aware of that and not have his side take too many risks. PSG will likely control ball possession in this match. Staying patient and being clinical is a good formula for success against a Gunners side that is not a dynamic goal-scoring squad. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the semifinals of the Champions League last season — and those results are instructive regarding how this rematch will play out. After winning the first leg by a 1-0 score, Les Parisiens took a commanding 3-0 lead at the 72nd minute mark of the second leg before the Gunners had to change tactics and get very aggressive, which helped them score one goal before losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin. After only four combined goals were scored in those 180 combined minutes, expect another lower-scoring contest between these two sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.