Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Flyers (14) versus the Montreal Canadiens (13) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (44-21-7) won all three games in the seeding round-robin last week culminating in their 4-1 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. Montreal (34-32-9) defeated Pittsburgh in the qualifying playoff series in four games after their 2-0 shutout victory on Saturday. This series will be playing on neutral ice without fans at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLYERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia was playing as good of hockey as any team in the NHL before the stoppage of play in March as they had won nine of their last ten games. They were dominant against the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference last week as they outscored Boston, Washington, and the Lightning by an 11 to 3 margin. They should build off their momentum in this game as they have won 11 of their last 12 games after a victory — and they have won 23 of their last 35 games after scoring at least four goals in their last contest. Furthermore, the Flyers have won 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. Additionally, Philly has won 11 of their last 14 games on the road after being unbeaten in at least three straight games — and they have won 19 of their last 28 games when playing just their second game in five days. The Flyers have won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games as a favorite. They will be challenged by a hot goaltender in Carey Price — but they have an underrated goalie themselves in Carter Hart whose 2.42 Goals-Against-Average during the regular season was the 8th best amongst qualifying goalies. He allowed only two goals in his two starts last week. Goaltending has been the missing link for this team for years — but Hart immediately stabilized the position for this team when the 22-year old was called up from the minors in December of 2018. Montreal may be due for an emotional letdown after being carried by Price for their victory over the Penguins. Price held Pittsburgh scoreless for the last 94 minutes of that series. It is hard to tell if the Canadiens' victory speaks to their quality of play or the state of disarray that the Penguins have descended into. Pittsburgh general manager Jimmy Rutherford is promising significant changes after his team’s second straight early exit from the playoffs. The Canadiens only scored ten goals in their four games with the Pens. Top-line forward Tomas Tatar failed to register a point in those four games. Montreal has lost 11 of their last 15 games after going unbeaten in two straight games — and they have lost 4 straight games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Canadiens have also lost 15 of their last 22 games when playing with at least three days between contests.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will not be taking Montreal lightly after they were upset by them at home by a 4-1 score back on January 16th. The Flyers have won 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least three goals. 10* NHL Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Flyers (14) versus the Montreal Canadiens (13). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (901) versus the Detroit Tigers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Chicago (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak last night by defeating the Tigers in the opening game of this series by an 8-4 score. Detroit (9-6) had been on a four-game winning streak before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Tigers began this series 13th in MLB in runs scored — but 28 of their runs this season came in a two-day stretch against the Pirates last Thursday and Friday. Despite their surprising start this season, Detroit has now a flat net run differential of 0 after yesterday’s game — and they have a -10 net run differential when removing that 48-hour period last week in Pittsburgh. The Tigers have lost 70 of their last 99 games after a loss. They also have lost 53 of their last 65 games at home — and they have lost 26 of their last 36 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Boyd who is 0-1 with a 9.20 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP this season. He comes off a disappointing start last Thursday in Pittsburgh where he allowed 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings of work but was bailed out by Detroit scoring 17 runs. Boyd was 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP last season where he enjoyed a spectacular start but struggled after the All-Star Break with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The left-hander is a fly ball pitcher who surrenders too many home runs, especially in the juiced ball era. I worry about his decline in effectiveness since he tends to be too predictable with only a fastball and slider. He needs a third pitch — and it appears opposing batters have figured him out. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their three games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starters — and they have won 4  of their last 5 games against starters with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also won 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 15 of their last 21 road games when favored. Additionally, Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Cease who is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He pitched 5 shutout innings in his last start last Thursday against Cleveland. Cease was hitting 100 MPH with his fastball last week which makes his curveball even more devastating since its spin mimics his four-seamer. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he had a 4.89 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in seven starts as compared to his 6.82 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and .299 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The White Sox have won 6 of their last 9 games with Cease pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He should find success against this Tigers team that has lost 46 of their last 55 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Cease had a 3.33 ERA in three starts against Detroit last season while Boyd has a 4-6 record with a 4.56 ERA in fourteen career starts against the White Sox. Chicago has now won 11 of their last 16 games against the Tigers. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (901) versus the Detroit Tigers (902) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.