Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Washington Nationals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (21-51) won the second game of this series last night with their 3-0 shutout victory over the Nationals.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a victory. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Gausman who is 3-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics call for immediate improvement in those numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.62 and 3.54 moving forward. The Orioles have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Gausman on the hill. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (39-33) has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Nationals have seen the Under go 17-7-4 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in Interleague play. They counter with Scherzer who is 10-3 with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.95 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP and .144 opponents batting average in seven starts. He should pitch another gem against this Orioles team that has played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect those trends to continue tonight. 10*  MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Washington Nationals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Croatia (9463) plus the Goal-Line versus Argentina (9464). THE SITUATION: Argentina (0-1-0) settled for a 1-1 draw with Iceland last Saturday in their opening match in the World Cup. Croatia (1-0-0) is alone in first place in Group D with their 2-0 victory over Nigeria.

REASONS TO TAKE CROATIA PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: Argentina was frustrated by the defensive tactics of Iceland who were content to park the bus in their back end. La Abliceleste scored only once despite their attempting a whopping 26 shots — but Lionel Messi continued his disappointing play in World Cup competition by missing a penalty kick which was his team’s golden opportunity to pull away with a victory. Argentina was not in form for most of their qualification matches for this tournament. That created a sense of urgency for manager Jorge Sampaoli to do whatever was necessary for La Abilceleste to reach the World Cup — and those tactics perhaps came at the expense of his imposing his high-pressing style of play with this group that was successful when he was the manager for Chile through the 2015 Copa America. Argentina is a talented team but many of these players are in the twilight of their career. Unfortunately, there does not seem to be a new generation of young stars emerging for this group. Half of the roster consists of players that entered this tournament with ten or fewer caps — yet only two of these players are under the age of 25. These players are not necessarily rising stars finally getting their chance but individuals that have yet to force their way on to the pitch in their careers. La Abliceleste’s ability to slow down their opponents remains a big concern for this team whose high press makes them vulnerable in their back end that consists of players that are perhaps now too slow and still unfamiliar with Sampaoli’s high-pressing system. Croatia will be relaxed after their decisive victory over the Super Eagles — and that makes them dangerous as technical underdogs. The Vatreni are very gifted with attacking players that are aggressive within their possession tactics. Led a sublime midfield of Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic along with Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic, the Vatreni will never feel inferior in talent to their opponents. Team cohesion has always been the biggest concern for this team but their chemistry looked quite good in their win over a talented Nigerian side. Croatia tends to raise their play against elite competition — they defeated Spain in Group Stage play by a 2-1 score in the 2016 Euro before losing a heartbreaker in the Round of 16 to Portugal in a game that was scoreless before a 5-4 result in the shootout.

FINAL TAKE: Argentina appears past their prime — they are overvalued against a talented Croatian team that is very capable to pull the upset. 10* World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Croatia (9463) plus the Goal-Line versus Argentina (9464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). THE SITUATION: Argentina (0-1-0) settled for a 1-1 draw with Iceland last Saturday in their opening match in the World Cup. Croatia (1-0-0) is alone in first place in Group D with their 2-0 victory over Nigeria.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Argentina was frustrated by the defensive tactics of Iceland who were content to park the bus in their back end. La Abliceleste scored only once despite their attempting a whopping 26 shots. However, Argentina would have remained in fine shape going into this match if Lionel Messi takes advantage of the penalty kick he took in that contest. Now La Abliceleste faces an urgent situation where a loss would put their chances to advance to the Group Stage very much in doubt. Sergio Aguero scored the only goal for Argentina which should ensure he remains in manager Jorge Sampaoli’s starting lineup with changes likely coming. Having the Manchester City star forward on the pitch to complement Messi should help the Argentine offense gel. However, La Abliceleste’s ability to slow down their opponents remains a big concern for this team whose high press makes them vulnerable in their back end that consists of players that are perhaps too old, too slowing and still unfamiliar with the system they are playing for their national team. Croatia will be relaxed after their decisive victory over the Super Eagles — and that makes them dangerous as technical underdogs. The Vatreni are very gifted with attacking players that are aggressive within their possession tactics. And while Croatia only allowed four goals in their last ten World Cup qualification matches, they are less than stout in their back end while being prone to errors. Like Argentina, the Vatreni typically face opponents primarily focused on defense with occasional counter-attacks given the oozing talent they have on the pitch.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this contest which makes a push the likely worst-case scenario. The urgency that Argentina will have in this match should ensure at least one of these two sides scores at least two goals. This will be an open, free-flowing match with neither side playing cautiously — and that is a formula for a high-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Group D Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Peru (9461) plus the Goal-Line versus France (9462). France (1-0-0) won their opening match on Saturday with their 2-1 win over Australia which gives them a share of first place in Group C. Peru (0-0-1) suffered a 1-0 loss to Denmark to put them tied with Australia in the basement of Group C.

REASONS TO TAKE PERU PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Incas deserved better in that match with the Danish Dynamite. Peru dominated the first-half in that contest but could not capitalize. They surrendered a goal in the second-half and could not level the score despite controlling possession for 52% of that match while outshooting Denmark by an 18-10 margin along with leading seven to five with shots on target. Los Incas’ talisman, Paolo Guerrero did not start in that match with perhaps manager Ricardo Gareca concerned about his fitness after dealing with his suspension mess over a failed drug test (Guerrero won on appeal that his positive test for a chemical found in cocaine actually came from “tainted tea”). Guerrero should start in this crucial contest for this national team that must at least secure a draw to stay alive to advance to the Knockout State. Peru is is a battle-tested team that finished 5th in a very competitive CONMEBOL (finishing above reigning Copa America champion Chile).  Peru reached the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America (with a win over Brazil) after a strong 3rd place finish in the 2015 Copa America. Gareca has this team in excellent form as they had not lost their last twelve matches since a 2-0 loss to Brazil in November of 2016 before Saturday’s setback. The Incas high-press creates scoring opportunities — and this is something that the French national team can struggle with. Les Bleus were sluggish and perhaps a bit lucky to exit that match with Australia with the victory. France consistently plays up or down to their competition. As the host nation in the 2016 Euro, they were often nervy and unsteady in their three Group Stage matches before seeing their form improve against elite competition in the Knockout Stage before losing in the Finals to a Portugal side that played most of that match with an injured Ronaldo on the sidelines. Les Blues are blessed with one of the most talented rosters in the world — but the concern is that this underachieving group consists of individuals more passionate about their other pursuits on and off the pitch than they are about sacrificing for their national team. The parts remain greater than the whole for this collection of talent with forwards Antoine Greizman and Kylian Mbappe perhaps being asked to take leadership roles up top when they are more comfortable playing second fiddle to another central forward doing the grunt work to spray the ball loose. In the midfield, N’Golo Kante thrives with Chelsea when he has the freedom to chase the ball relentlessly while having the confidence that he has another holding defensive player in the midfield — but that is something he cannot risk doing when where the French kit since his teammates in the middle all have offfensive aspirations. Paul Pogba also is a bit out of place in the middle not being able to drift in attack mode with teammate Corentin Tolisso committing to those tendencies. Manager Didier Deschamps are perhaps playing too slow on the pitch while being too reliant on crosses to generate their scoring chances in the penalty area rather than relying on their natural speed in a more direct style. The French also have big question marks with their left and right back with their defensive group which made it unsurprising that Australia was able to register a goal. Remember, it was an own-goal by the Socceroos that ended up making the winning difference for France.

FINAL TAKE: With France being a bit overrated and now facing a desperate but dangerous Peru side, lets take Los Incas plus the goal-line where we win if the match ends in a draw or Peru upset win while escaping with a push if France wins by just one goal. 10* World Cup Thursday Morning Discounted Deal with Peru (9461) plus the Goal-Line versus France (9462). Best of luck for us — Frank.