Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 30-23 upset loss at home to Air Force last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Arizona State (3-0) pulled off a 10-7 upset victory at Michigan State last week as a 15.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: The Sun Devils pulled out that upset in East Lansing despite being outgained by 188 net yards. The Arizona State offense managed only 216 yards of offense against Sparty while picking up only fourteen first downs. If not for an extremely conservative offensive game plan from Michigan State along with a +1 net turnover margin that was critical in the wining this game. The Sun Devils have a talented freshman leading their offense in quarterback Jayden Daniels who coveted 15 of 26 passes for 140 yards against the Spartans defense. While the dual-threat QB has a high ceiling, he is still green — and he has two other fellow freshmen starting on the offensive line. The Arizona State looked shaky two weeks ago in a 19-7 victory over an FCS school in Sacramento State. These question marks on offense make the Sun Devils precarious favorites of at least a touchdown — they have not covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Arizona State returns home to Tempe where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Herm Edwards is doing a fine job with this football team in his second season with the program. Fifteen starters return from last year’s group that was 7-6 — but that team also benefited from a +10 net turnover margin which was tied for 11th best in the FBS. That number was rather fortunate considering that their expected net turnover margin was projected at just +0.4 — and that -9.7 net differential in expected turnover margin with actual turnover margin was the 4th highest in the nation. The Buffaloes were caught flat last week as they went into halftime at home against the Falcons trailing by a 20-10 score. Colorado looked emotionally spent from their 34-31 comeback victory at Nebraska that required overtime two weeks ago. First-year head coach Mel Tucker inherited eleven starters from last year’s 5-7 team. But that group would likely have gotten to a bowl game if their star wide receiver, Laviska Shenault, Jr., had been healthy all season. After a dynamic start to the season that put him in the Heisman Trophy buzz, a toe injury limited his effectiveness in the second half of the season until he was finally shut down after nine games. He still caught 86 balls for 1011 receiving yards. So far this season, Shenault has caught 16 balls for 203 yards with two touchdown passes. He will be the most dynamic player on the field tonight. The Buffaloes also have an edge at quarterback in fifth-year senior Steven Montez who is completed 64.7% of his passes last year. The dual-threat QB is an NFL prospect with a significant edge in experience over Daniels.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score in Boulder as a 2-point favorite. With the Buffaloes having a significant edge in experience at QB, expect a close game between these two teams in their opening game in Pac-12 play. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take the Pittsburgh Panthers plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights. Pittsburgh (1-2) played Penn State close in Happy Valley last week but they lost by a 17-10 score as a 17-point underdog. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Pitt has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. UCF (3-0) looks to build off their 45-27 win over Stanford last week. The Knights have only forced one turnover this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games. And in UCF’s last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests. Take Pitt plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports was a WINNING 3-1 in All-Sports on Friday — including a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP with their highest-rated 25* plays — to continue their 11 of 14 (79%) All-Sports run since Monday along with a RED HOT 62 of 89 (70%) All-Sports run over the last twenty-nine days and a 69 of 97 (71%) mark with their 25* plays in All-Sports! Hopefully everyone got the Utah-USC Total at 52.5 (or better last night — Frank entered this ACTION SATURDAY with a 17 of 25 (68%) mark in CFB for ’19-20 which has continued his 30 of 39 (77%) CFB run! Now Frank continues his Saturday card by furthering his 48 of 66 (73%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR with his highest-rated 25* plays along with his 8 of 11 (73%) CFB Game of the Month/Year run with the UCF-Pitt O/U winner on ABC-TV (or ESPN2 out west) at 3:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Television Total of the Month! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points versus the UL-Monroe Warhawks. Iowa State (1-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat after suffering an 18-17 loss at home to their in-state rival in Iowa last week as a +1.5-point underdog. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Iowa State is also 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. UL-Monroe (1-1) returns to the field after suffering a heartbreaking 45-44 loss at Florida State in overtime two weeks ago where they were big +22.5-point underdogs. The Warhawks are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. UL-Monroe has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Lay the points with Iowa State. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports was a WINNING 3-1 in All-Sports on Friday — including a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP with their highest-rated 25* plays — to continue their 11 of 14 (79%) All-Sports run since Monday along with a RED HOT 62 of 89 (70%) All-Sports run over the last twenty-nine days and a 69 of 97 (71%) mark with their 25* plays in All-Sports! Hopefully everyone got the Utah-USC Total at 52.5 (or better last night — and Frank suffered a bad beat with the late onside kick return for a TD by Louisiana Tech to ruin his FIU play — but he still enters this ACTION SATURDAY with a 17 of 25 (68%) mark in CFB for ’19-20 which has continued his 30 of 39 (77%) CFB run! Now Frank KICKS OFF his Saturday card by furthering his 12 of 17 (71%) CFB Side mark along with his 8 of 11 (73%) CFB Game of the Month/Year run with his 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month for September! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.