Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 1/12:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Brooklyn Nets plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks. Brooklyn (11-25) has lost three games in a row after their 103-98 loss at Memphis as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Nets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing on the road in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score at least 100 points in their last game. Dallas (14-25) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after their 125-107 loss at Chicago as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Take Brooklyn plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 11 of 18 (61%) NFL Playoff run continued after settling for a 1-1 mark on Sunday! Now Frank furthers his 7 of 10 (70%) NFL Playoff Game of the Year mark with his 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year for tonight’s Houston-Pittsburgh ATS winner on ABC-TV/ESPN at 8:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, has 13 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season — and he is on a 277 of 481 (58%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank has 33 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 55 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 75 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank furthers his 23 of 36 (64%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight’s Houston-Pittsburgh O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Monday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL! 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (385) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (386). THE SITUATION: Houston (12-5) has won nine games in a row after their 38-30 victory against Indianapolis as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won four of their last five games after their 26-24 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ defense showed some warts last week by surrendering 354 yards of offense against rookie quarterback Riley Leonard. But Houston has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow AFC South rival, including four of those five games played at home. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has some severe home/road splits this season. At home, he sports a 107.4 Quarterback Rating, completes 69.1% of his passes, averages 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt, and has a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on the road, his QBR drops to 81.3, his completion percentage falls to 60.9%, his YPA lowers to 6.8, and he has nine touchdown passes but seven interceptions. In his two career games on the road in the playoffs, Houston has scored only 24 combined points and no more than 14 points in either game. The Texans have played 16 of their last 26 games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, while the Houston offensive line has improved with the emergence of Ed Ingram, that group remains a weakness. Even with T.J. Watt missing time due to an injury, the Steelers rank sixth in the league by generating 2.8 sacks per game. Where the Texans’ offensive line issues really show up is in short-yardage situations, especially at the goal line. They only have four rushing touchdowns inside their opponent’s five-yard line — and that mark is four touchdowns fewer than the second closest team that made the playoffs. In their 24 rushes inside their opponent’s five-yard line, they have only six total rushing yards with a 0.25 Yards-Per-Carry average, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. Their running backs account for 21 of those attempts — and they only have four rushing yards. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Despite not having T.J. Watt healthy all season, the Steelers defense ranks 11th in the league according to the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against fellow AFC rivals. They have played 8 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Texans have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (385) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (386) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (385). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won four of their last five games after their 26-24 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (12-5) has won nine games in a row after their 38-30 victory against Indianapolis as a 9.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans’ defense showed some warts last week by surrendering 354 yards of offense against rookie quarterback Riley Leonard. They got outgained by -15 yards and survived the game due to a +3 net turnover margin. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points, including three straight point spread losses this season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has some severe home/road splits this season. At home, he sports a 107.4 Quarterback Rating, completes 69.1% of his passes, averages 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt, and has a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on the road, his QBR drops to 81.3, his completion percentage falls to 60.9%, his YPA lowers to 6.8, and he has nine touchdown passes but seven interceptions. In his two career games on the road in the playoffs, Houston has scored only 24 combined points and no more than 14 points in either game. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 27 games with Stroud under center when favored. The road team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this rivalry. And while the Houston offensive line has improved with the emergence of Ed Ingram, that group remains a weakness. Even with T.J. Watt missing time due to an injury, the Steelers rank sixth in the league by generating 2.8 sacks per game. Where the Texans’ offensive line issues really show up is in short-yardage situations, especially at the goal line. They only have four rushing touchdowns inside their opponent’s five-yard line — and that mark is four touchdowns fewer than the second closest team that made the playoffs. In their 24 rushes inside their opponent’s five-yard line, they have only six total rushing yards with a 0.25 Yards-Per-Carry average, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. Their running backs account for 21 of those attempts — and they only have four rushing yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory against a fellow AFC North rival. The Steelers welcome back wide receiver D.J. Metcalf for this game after completing his two-game suspension. He is needed. The team’s completion percentage above league expectation is +0.08 through Week 16, but dropped to -0.052 in the last two weeks without him. Their Expected Points Added per play was +0.087 through Week 16, but fell to -0.052 in the last two games without him. Metcalf leads the team in the following categories: 21.1% target share; 40.6% air yards share; 11 end zone targets; 85 first-read targets. Pittsburgh’s offense has improved in the second half of the season, as they have scored 26 or more points in five of their last six games. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, they are 41-19-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their 31 games at home as an underdog under Tomlin. They are 20-12-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a better record than them. Pittsburgh should be confident in this game since they have won 23 straight games at home on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be the X-factor in this game. While he is not as mobile as he was in his prime, he remains as savvy as ever. He has a 12-2 straight-up record on Monday Night Football with his teams covering the point spread in 9 of those 14 contests. He has a 12-8-1 ATS mark in the playoffs — and his teams are 6-3-1 ATS in the ten games as they are an underdog. Furthermore, while the Texans only give up 17.4 Points-Per-Game, Rodgers’ teams have a 9-1-1 ATS mark in 11 games against defenses that do not give up more than 18 PPG, including five straight point spread covers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (386) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (385). Best of luck for us — Frank.