Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 5/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday was with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston (59-34) has won nine of their last twelve games with their 109-81 victory against Milwaukee on Sunday. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Celtics’ last 15 games after a double-digit victory. They have also played 34 of their last 56 games Over the Total as an underdog. Miami (61-32) has won six of their last eight contests after their 99-90 upset win at Philadelphia to win that series in six games on Thursday. The Heat have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game. And in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 16 of 21 (76%) NBA HOT STREAK that has fueled his 25 of 35 (71%) NBA Playoff run! Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month yesterday with Milwaukee to improve their 35 of 47 (74%) All-Sports run over the last 18 days — and now Frank has tonight’s Celtics-Heat ATS winner on ESPN at 8:45 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (61-32) has won six of their last eight games after their 99-90 upset win at Philadelphia as a 2-point underdog on Thursday that ended that series in six games. Boston (59-34) beat Milwaukee by a 109-81 score as a 5-point favorite on Sunday to take that series in seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami will be rested and ready on their home court for this opening contest. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest — including eleven of these last fifteen situations. The Heat should build off the momentum of their series win against the 76ers as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset victory on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Miami returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 63 playoff games when they were the favorite under head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have covered the point spread 43 times. The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry who remains out is a hamstring injury — but the Celtics may not have Marcus Smart who is listed as questionable with a sprained foot. Smart missed a game in the last round against the Bucks — head coach Ime Udoka may err on the side of caution by not playing him to give him two more days of rest and recovery. Boston got the short end of the stick when compared to Dallas who also played on Sunday but get an extra day before starting their series with Golden State. The Celtics have the difficult challenge to travel to Miami on a 48-hour turnaround to begin this series. They did beat Milwaukee by decisive 13 and 18 point margins in the final two games of that series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after two double-digit victories in a row. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Finals going back to the Bubble when they lost to the Heat.

FINAL TAKE: Boston won the three-game regular-season series between these teams — but they got upset at home against Miami by a 106-98 score in the most recent meeting between these teams on March 30th as a 5-point favorite. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.