Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Wichita State Shockers (670) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (669) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wichita State (22-11) had won seven games in a row before their 70-55 loss against South Florida as a 6.5-point underdog in the championship game of the American Conference tournament on Sunday. Wyoming (18-14) had won three games in a row before a 73-70 loss at UNLV as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of the Mountain West Conference tournament. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SHOCKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wichita State only made 33.9% of their shots against the Bulls on Sunday, which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Shockers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. As a three seed on their side of the bracket in this tournament, they get to host this opening round game. They are surrendering -7.3 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions at home, the 23rd best improvement in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Overall, Wichita State enjoys the 55th best improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.3% — and that mark improves to 45.0% when playing at home. The Shockers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em, including all three games when they are playing up to six points. They should dominate tonight’s game on the offensive glass as they rank fifth in the nation by pulling down 38.3% of their missed shots — and defensive rebounding is an area of vulnerability for the Cowboys. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss, including all three of those games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing for just the second time in eight days, including five of those six games played on the road. This team fouls too much as they are burdened with the fifth-worst defensive free throw rate. On the road, the Cowboys are surrendering +3.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. They allow their opponents to pull down 32.3% of their missed shots, ranking 221st of the 365 teams in Division I. Perhaps their defensive rebounding benefits when playing at home in the high altitude, which makes most of their opponents uncomfortable? They are giving up a whopping +8.4% more offensive rebounds when playing on the road — and that is the 11th biggest jump in the nation. Wyoming also allows their opponents to make 57.2% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 325th in the nation. Additionally, they are scoring -0.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road, with their 3-point shooting dragging them down as they only make 29.6% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 329th in the nation. Overall, they experience the 278th-worst decline in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when the Total is set in the 140s, including six of those nine games on the road. Wichita State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the American Conference, including five of those seven games played at home. 25* CBB NIT 1st Round Game of the Year with the Wichita State Shockers (670) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 3/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is  on Seattle minus the points versus St. Thomas (MN) in the first round of the NIT. Seattle (20-13) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 61-58 loss to Pacific as a 1.5-point underdog back on March 7th in the West Coast Conference tournament. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 140s. St. Thomas (23-9) had won three games in a row before their 67-66 upset loss to North Dakota as an 11.5-point favorite in the Summit League tournament on March 7th. The Tommies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams outside the Summit League. Take Seattle minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 6 of 8 (75%) All-Sports run after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on New Orleans last night! Frank is also on a 10 of 14 (71%) college basketball run that fuels his 15 of 22 (68%) CBB streak! Frank enjoys a 9 of 12 (75%) CBB Game of the Year run — and now he furthers his 46 of 71 (65%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays by UNLEASHING his 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year for Tuesday night! 

Frank DELIVERED his 25* CBB Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn’s UPSET VICTORY against Yale on Sunday to improve his 9 of 12 (75%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides mark — and now he spots an OUTSTANDING $$ OPPORTUNITY tonight with his 25* CBB NIT 1st Round Game of the Year! DON’T MISS IT!

At 9:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (663) and the Texas Longhorns (664) in their First Four contest in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (20-13) enters the Big Dance having lost five of their last six games after an 81-74 loss to Virginia as a 6.5-point underdog in the ACC tournament last Thursday. Texas (18-14) has lost five of their last six contests after their 76-66 upset loss against Mississippi as a 5.5-point favorite in the SEC tournament last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack exited the ACC tournament after making only 36.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. But this team is an explosive offensive team. They rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency fueled by their 38.8% shooting mark from behind the arc, ranking 10th in the nation. They also play at a very fast pace. NC State averages 16.5 seconds per possession, which ranks 57th quickest in the nation — and their 69.1 adjusted points per possession average ranks 86th of the 365 teams in Division I. The Cavaliers made 47.5% of their shots against them in their exit in the ACC tournament — and that was still the best defensive performance in their last six contests. The Wolfpack ranks 86th in the nation and 12th in conference play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In the last month, they have dropped to 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They were last of the 18 teams in the ACC by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.0% of their missed shots. They also ranked 287th by allowing their opponents to make 35.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Their opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 53.0% ranked 265th. The Wolfpack have played 4 straight Overs on the road after a straight-up loss to a fellow ACC rival. They have played five straight games that finished Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games on the road Over the Total after playing three more Overs in a row. On the road, they are scoring +9.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, the eighth-best improvement in the nation relative to a team’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home. They take advantage of their scoring chances on the road as they turn the ball over only 12.3% of the time, the lowest mark in the nation. They are second in the nation by nailing 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc on the road — and that fuels their 55.4% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 20th. Overall, NC State ranks sixth in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But the Wolfpack are also surrendering +8.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road, the 13th-worst decline versus home split stats. They are allowing their opponents to make 42.6% of their shots from behind the arc, dead last in the nation. Their 57.9% opponents’ effective field goal percentage on the road is the 11th worst. NC State has played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total when favored. They have played 4 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 tournament games, they have played 4 of them Over the Total. Texas only made 35.2% of their shots in their exit from the SEC tournament last week, the worst shooting effort in their last 31 games. And they failed to take advantage of Ole Miss, only making 10.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the Longhorns' best perimeter defensive effort in their last 28 contests. Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 4 straight Overs when playing with five or six days of rest. The Longhorns rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are going to feast on the offensive boards tonight as they pull down 35.7% of their missed shots, ranking 35th in the nation. They also rank fourth in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and I love investing in Overs when teams score points when the clock is stopped. But Texas ranks 112th in the nation and 10th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. NC State is going to love to shoot 3s against the Longhorns, who rank 299th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and their SEC opponents nailed 37.0% of their 3s against them. Texas ranked 13th in the SEC with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7%. They also ranked 307th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Furthermore, they only turned the ball over in 13.4% of their opponents’ possessions, the 12th worst in the nation — so the Wolfpack are going to get high shot volume in this game. On the road, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency drops to 125th in the nation. Their turnover rate is the lowers to just 12.1% of their opponents’ possessions, and they fall to 349th in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.0% on the road ranks 299th — and they allow their opponents to make 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road, the fourth-worst mark in the nation. Texas does score +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. They rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and their 37.2% clip from behind the arc on the road ranks 27th. The Longhorns have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. They have played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s, including five of those eight games on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the Maui Invitational on November 26th in a game Texas won by a 102-97 score — and the Wolfpack have played 5 of their 6 games on the road this season Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NCAA First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (663) and the Texas Longhorns (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.