Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 9/1

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with Under the Total in the game between TCU and North Carolina. North Carolina (0-0) is expected to be a heavy run team with dual threat quarterback Gio Lopez with plenty of 12 and 13 personnel heavy sets relying on multiple tight ends on the field. Head coach Bill Belichick wants to win games with defense and not making mistakes. The Tar Heels have played five of their last seven games under the number with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the ACC. TCU (0-0) has an explosive offense — and Belichick will want to slow this game down to keep the Horned Frogs’ experienced quarterback Josh Hoover off the field. The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Head coach Sonny Dykes’ teams have played 8 of the 12 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range Under the Total in his career. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is happy to begin September after a garbage weekend that ended with a winless Sunday with his three plays. Frank is still on an 11 of 17 (65%) CFB featured 25*/20*/10* plays run in the regular season — and he gets things going with tonight’s TCU-North Carolina ATS winner on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). THE SITUATION: TCU (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that culminated in their 34-3 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Mexico Bowl. North Carolina (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to UConn in the Fenway Bowl by a 27-14 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover. This is a stable group — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points under Dykes. North Carolina hit the reset button. I have little doubt that if Bill Belichick wanted to develop an elite college football program at the University of North Carolina, he could do it. As the son of two parents who were college professors, he is a football lifer who considers himself first and foremost a teacher. He has forgotten more about teaching (and football) than these loudmouth critics in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex have ever known about this or any other subject. But how serious is he about the responsibility of this job? I initially thought this was an easy answer. But when I conducted my deep-dive on this team in mid-July, it was just after Belichick felt the need to rebut on ESPN mostly innocent comments made by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Maybe the year off from coaching last year changed the priorities of this 73-year-old in the twilight of his life, with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He became a media star on multiple platforms. He has a 24-year-old girlfriend. He has empowered her to become his social media agent. All the drama … it is definitely not the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it is time to work on football, he is putting in 100% effort. But is the fire in the belly still there? Because if the idea was to go from NFL star to media star, one probably could not find a better group of marks than the administration at North Carolina. They gave the bag to Mack Brown at 68 years old to leave his cushy job occasionally talking about football on ESPN to return as their head coach six years ago. Brown was able to sell his “CEO” style for six years of utter mediocrity, where the Tar Heels always qualified for a bowl game, yet never won more than nine games. This football team has not enjoyed a ten-win season since 2015. If a cynic wanted to argue that, at 73 years old, Belichick is content to simply get paid and go through the motions now while promoting his Q rating, the evidence supporting this is growing. His new coaching staff remains a blend of nepotism or “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though Brown did not ever elevate him higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator). More red flags continue to emerge. The high school recruiting front has been meager, despite new general manager Michael Lombardo boasting about their establishment of an advanced pro-level scouting program that implements NIL better than their peers. And then perhaps the biggest tell: nearly two dozen players left the program after spring practice. Maybe old school tactics like not assigning jersey numbers until the player “earned it” was simply following the advice of his parents, who knew that it is much easier to loosen restrictions as a teacher than attempt to get stricter after initial expectations are established. But the defense lost two of their best defensive players with defensive end Beau Atkinson and linebacker Amare Campbell transferring to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively, who were both very happy to assign these players a jersey with a number. Perhaps that is the inevitable attrition still playing out in establishing a winning culture. It certainly was not there under Brown. Belichick knows defense and can teach it. They have been very active in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Belichick added eight new transfers on the offensive line that are big with lots of starting experience (and two All-Conference awardees). Belichick brought in an intriguing talent at quarterback after spring practice with Gio Lopez from South Alabama. The sophomore dual-threat QB passes for 2559 yards and rushed for 547 non-sack rushing yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. But the skill position players on offense are mostly unproven in a bad look that looks suspiciously like his final teams with the Patriots. Many things have to go right to immediately build a winning team from the transfer portal. Chemistry, cohesion, culture — these are never guaranteed, even if the head coach is a future NFL Hall of Famer. Maybe Belichick already knows that — and his girlfriend has the perfect meme to post about it?

FINAL TAKE: Taking a step back from the Belichick analysis, teams with almost entirely new coaching staffs and only six returning starters from last year tend to struggle out of the gate. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread at home in 7 straight games — so Kenan Stadium has not offered much advantage lately. 10* CFB TCU-North Carolina ESPN Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.