Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 10/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday night was with the Carolina Hurricanes with the money-line versus the Calgary Flames. Carolina (7-1-1) has won seven games in a row after their 3-2 win on the road in Winnipeg against the Jets. The Hurricanes have won 29 of their last 45 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have played three straight Unders — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Calgary (1-6-0) has lost six of their first seven games after their  6-2 loss in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights on Thursday. The   Flames have lost 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by four or more goals. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games after allowing six or more goals in their last game. Take Calgary with the money-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 18 of 24 (75%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark continued this afternoon by DELIVERING their 25* AFC West Total of the Month with the LA Chargers-Kansas City Under just now! Frank is now on a 35 of 55 (64%) football run — and now he furthers his 31 of 47 (66%) NFL run with his 25* NFC Total of the Month for the Dallas-Green Bay O/U winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is on a 20 of 25 (80%) NFL SIDES STREAK — and he is on a 24 of 36 (67%) NFL Prime-Time run with EIGHT NFL PRIME-TIME SIDE/TOTAL SWEEPS since the Super Bowl to make it 21 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since last season and fueling his long-running 303 of 525 (58%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank has 41 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 63 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 83 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank has tonight’s Dallas-Green Bay ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (283) plus the point(s) versus the Green Bay Packers (284). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) looks to rebound from their 24-16 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 9.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 8th. Green Bay (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 31-7 upset win at home against Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): Dallas was fat and complacent on both sides of the ball facing Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. The Bucs were able to run the ball and burn time off the clock. Dallas’ offense was only on the field for 20:39 minutes. Dak Prescott completed only 24 of his 42 passes and threw two interceptions. Usually, listless efforts like that light a fire under Prescott — the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss since Brian Schottenheimer took over as their head coach. Dallas does have an explosive offense that will be the best unit on the field in this game. They rank fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Play and fourth in Success Rate. Their offensive attack is balanced as well. Their passing game ranks fourth in Success Rate and fourth in EPA per Dropback. When running the ball, they rank 10th in EPA per Rush and eighth in Rushing Success Rate. Green Bay cannot run the ball. With Josh Jacobs out so far this season with an injury, they are only generating 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 60.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank last in Rushing EPA. They have yet to run for even 100 yards in a game this season. The Packers come off their best game of the season — but I do not think this team suddenly rediscovered their form of two seasons ago. I suspect it has someone more to do with facing backup quarterbacks for the Bears and being gifted a +5 net turnover margin. Frankly, I thought the Packers were on the cusp of a Super Bowl run two years ago. I was impressed by the in-season improvements on both sides of the ball in a season that saw them humiliate the Dallas Cowboys in their building in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs before losing by a narrow 24-21 score in San Francisco against the 49ers in the Divisional Round. But they stumbled down the stretch in the 2024-25 season by losing their final three games of the season, culminating in a 22-10 loss at Philadelphia in the Wildcard Round. In my deep dive on this team for last season, I concluded: “Maybe my positive vibes on Green Bay were a year premature and delayed by bad luck injuries to their quarterback. On the other hand, maybe this is a roster of very nice players that remains limited because it simply lacks the handful of superstar game-changers that are essential to win games in the postseason.” Maybe general manager Brian Gutekunst read this? He made a big splash just before the season started by adding a superstar when he pulled off the blockbuster trade with the Cowboys to acquire Micah Parsons. For a few weeks, Green Bay became the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. But they then blew a double-digit lead in a loss at Cleveland before settling for that wild 40-40 tie in Dallas against a Cowboys team that was supposedly rebuilding after trading away Parsons. Something was off, whether it was unearned overconfidence or some sort of lethargy. Then the injury bug hit, taking Parsons, tight end Tucker Kraft (amidst a breakout season), starting right guard Zach Bako-Bewele (formerly Zach Tom, before he changed his name in the fall to honor his Nigerian heritage), and Jordan Love all off the field. The Packers stumbled into the postseason on a four-game losing streak (all without Parsons). Yet in their third meeting with the Chicago Bears, they raced out to a 21-3 lead at halftime. However, the Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter and rallied from a double-digit deficit against Green Bay to pull out a 31-27 victory.  While Love was able to return to action for the wildcard round, Parsons, Kraft, and Tom remained sidelined. It’s easy to rationalize that their five-game losing streak would not have happened without those critical losses. With LaFleur’s future in doubt, new team President Ed Policy extended his contract. Now healthy again, the Packers should be ready to make a deep playoff run now. Right? Not so fast. Blowing three double-digit leads may very well be the red flag that something is wrong. The roster was good enough to take those big leads, but why were those big leads unable to be maintained? Those disappointments lead to questions about the culture inside the building. It may be no coincidence that LaFleur ranked in the bottom six of NFL coaches in the NFLPA’s annual player survey. He received unfavorable marks regarding “respect for players” — and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich fared even worse. Discovering this only added fuel to my fire that there are culture problems within this football team. Want more evidence about the culture decline of this program? A month after the assistant coach hiring cycle, special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia abruptly retired from football, claiming he wanted to spend more time with his family in Florida. He later accepted the special teams coordinator job at Clemson, which is farther away than a morning commute from the Sunshine State. His assistant, Byron Storer, would have been in line to get promoted, but he decided to leave Green Bay to run the special teams for the Cleveland Browns. It’s all fishy, especially since one would think that Storer would find the Packers’ job more prestigious than the Jets'. The Jets! Frankly, LaFleur looks burnt out. I noticed warning signs in my deep dive last year:  “And after my raving about head coach Matt LaFleur in my deep dive last year (2024), after he oversaw significant improvements on both sides of the ball the previous season, he endured his worst season as a head coach in his six years, with game management issues compounded by too many lapses of unneeded emotional outbursts. Perhaps the pressure of expectations got to him? Perhaps that impacted the team?” Those thoughts look prescient now — and there are some hard realities for this team staring them in the face. Green Bay has lost five of their last six playoff games. They snuck into the postseason as the seventh seed in each of the last three years — meaning they would not have even made the playoffs before the postseason field was expanded. I wondered about the lack of star power on the roster last year — perhaps the Packers’ commitment to the “green and growing” philosophy of relying mostly on developing draft picks has enabled them to overrate the quality of their roster? The offensive line appears to be regressing. They lost wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks in free agency, with LaFleur making the bizarre comment that the previous depth at the position was a “problem.” Doubs was the only player in that wide receiver room who could win the ball on the outside. The defense is in transition after Jeff Haffley left to take the head coaching job for the Miami Dolphins. LaFleur brought in former Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon to run the defense — and his first decision was to make the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. The pass rush after Parsons, even when he returns from injury, remains a question. The cornerback room has issues. Perhaps Gannon got too much of the credit for operating the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense that reached the Super Bowl in 2023? He would not be the first coach who was made to look good by great cornerbacks and a deep defensive line rotation. His defenses in Arizona were failures that he was unable to elevate with his schemes. Green Bay is not likely to be able to slow down the Cowboys offense. The Packers rank 24th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Opponent EPA Allowed. The Packers have had the youngest roster in the league for the three previous seasons. While they claimed the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs all three of those seasons, this perpetual motion machine may finally be on the verge of imploding. Maybe the return of Parsons, Kraft, and Bako-Beweke is all that is needed to take this team to the next level and win games in the postseason — but the cracks in the armor have been showing long before their late-season injuries. Bako-Beweke was ruled out for the season in August with what may now be a chronic knee issue. And they began this season by blowing a big lead in the fourth quarter against the Vikings. Beating the Jets and Tampa Bay and then Chicago using a backup quarterback just does not move the needle much for me. As it is, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. 

FINAL TAKE: In the LaFleur era, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their 47 games as a single-digit favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the  Dallas Cowboys (283) plus the point(s) versus the Green Bay Packers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (283) and the Green Bay Packers (284). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) looks to rebound from their 24-16 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 9.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 8th. Green Bay (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 31-7 upset win at home against Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas had played 10 straight Overs before last week against the Buccaneers. The Cowboys were fat and complacent on both sides of the ball facing Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. The Bucs were able to run the ball and burn time off the clock. Dallas’ offense was only on the field for 20:39 minutes. Dak Prescott completed only 24 of his 42 passes and threw two interceptions. Usually, listless efforts like that light a fire under Prescott — and the Cowboys have not played two Unders in a row since Weeks Nine and Ten in the 2024-25 season. Dallas has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including 5 straight Overs after an upset loss. The Cowboys do have an explosive offense — they rank fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Play and fourth in Success Rate. Their offensive attack is balanced as well. Their passing game ranks fourth in Success Rate and fourth in EPA per Dropback. When running the ball, they rank 10th in EPA per Rush and eighth in Rushing Success Rate. But all the talk in the offseason about the improvements destined for their defense under rookie defensive coordinator Christian Parker has simply been noise so far this season. Dallas is last in Opponent EPA Allowed and Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank last against the pass in both those categories. Against the run, they rank 21st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 27th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cowboys have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. But just because Dallas plays lots of Overs does not mean I am willing to invest and endorse. Their dance partner needs to be right to generate the game script that will produce a higher-scoring game — especially when the total is in the 50s. The Packers are one of those dance partners. Green Bay cannot run the ball. With Josh Jacobs out so far this season with an injury, they are only generating 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 60.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank last in Rushing EPA. They have yet to run for even 100 yards in a game this season. Even if the Packers can run the ball against Dallas, I don’t think head coach Matt LaFleur will have the patience to stay committed to burning time off the clock. They are averaging less than 20 rushing attempts per game while they are averaging 37 pass attempts per game. LeFleur will likely think that his formula for success is relying on quarterback Jordan Love — especially after last week when he completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. This all sets up a game script where Green Bay will be passing the ball a lot — and the clock will stop after incompletions. The Packers have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset victory, including all 6 games when that upset win took place at Lambeau Field. They have also played 30 of their 45 games Over the Total after a win at home since LeFleur became their head coach. When Love is under center, they have played 19 of their 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Green Bay is not likely to be able to slow down the Cowboys offense. The Packers rank 24th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Opponent EPA Allowed. 

FINAL TAKE: In Prescott’s 22 games against teams from the NFC North, the game finished Over 16 times by an average of +8.2 PPG. These two teams played to that 40-40 tie in Dallas on September 28th last season. In the last 25 games between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 19 times by an average of +8.8 PPG. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (283) and the Green Bay Packers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 10/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday in MLB was with the Cleveland Guardians with the money-line versus the Tampa Bay Rays listing both starting pitchers Patrick Messick and Drew Rasmussen. Cleveland (90-81) has lost two of their last three games in this series with a 7-3 loss at home in Game Four last night. The Guardians have won 9 of their last 11 games after losing their last game. They have won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Tampa Bay (103-66) has lost 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. The Rays have also lost 12 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-54% range. Take Cleveland with the money-line while listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 23 of 32 (72%) MLB TOTALS TEAR — and now Frank furthers his 7 of 11 (64%) MLB Game of the Year mark and his 19 of 26 (73%) MLB Game of the Month/Year Over-Under run with his 25* MLB American League Total of the Year for this afternoon’s Tampa Bay-Cleveland O/U winner on TBS-TV at 5:08 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 5:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (945) and the Cleveland Guardians (946). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (103-66) evened this best-of-seven series at 2-2 with their 7-3 victory on the road against the Guardians last night. Cleveland (90-81) has lost two of their last three games. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Last night’s game finished Over the Total — but the Rays have seen the Under go 7-4-1 in their last 12 games after playing an Over in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also played 25 of their last 31 games Under the Total on the road against teams that are winning 51-54% of their games — and they have played 19 of their last 24 road games in the second half of the season Under the Total against teams that are winning 51-54% of their games going back to the 2025 season. Drew Rasmussen is their starting pitcher tonight. The right-hander posted a 16-5 record along with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 30 starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his excellent season. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.30 and 3.21 (and while those numbers are higher than his ERA, they work for our Under). His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 3.05. He was more effective on the road in the regular season, where he sported a 2.47 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 15 starts. In his two postseason appearances this season, he has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP in 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and only two bases-on-balls. In Game One of this series, he pitched six innings and allowed only two earned runs while striking out seven and not walking a batter last Monday. The Rays bullpen is mostly rested as only Ian Seymour had a high pitch count from the relievers last night. He should continue to have success against this Guardians team that ranked 24th and 23rd in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they ranked 25th and 24th in those metrics since August. In the postseason, Cleveland is only hitting .232 with a .320 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. The Under is 59-47-2 in the Guardians’ last 108 games against teams using a right-handed pitcher. Patrick Messick gets the ball for Cleveland. The left-hander posted a 12-9 record along with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 32 starts in the regular season. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 2.94 and 3.11. His xERA sits at 3.13. In the postseason, he has a 3.09 ERA but a high 1.71 WHIP. Walks are the issue as he has issued eight bases-on-balls in 11 2/3 innings. But the Rays do not draw out at-bats — they have only been issued eight walks in the four games in this series. In Game Two on Tuesday, Messick only walked two batters while pitching five innings where he gave up three runs, but they were all unearned. In five career appearances against Tampa Bay, Messick has a 0.86 ERA — and all 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Under is also 19-6-1 in Messick’s career 26 starts at night. The Rays lack power — and they have struck out 39 times in this series after their 12 punchouts last night. Tampa Bay ranks 26th and 23rd in MLB in the regular season on the road against left-handed pitchers — and they rank 28th and 27th in those metrics since August 1st. In the postseason, they have a .214 batting average with a .262 on-base percentage and a .597 slugging percentage. 

FINAL TAKE: Despite last night’s Over, the Under is 19-5-1 in the last 25 games between these two teams, with the average combined score being 5.4 Runs-Per-Game. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (945) and the Cleveland Guardians (946). Best of luck for us — Frank.       

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (281) and the Kansas City Chiefs (282). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-5) remains winless this season after their 23-17 loss at home against Denver as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) returns from their bye week unbeaten after their 30-27 win on the road in Las Vegas against the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers offense is a mess right now. The marriage of head coach Jim Harbaugh with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has been rocky. McDaniel wants to rewrite Harbaugh’s run concepts and change quarterback Justin Herbert’s footwork in order to get the ball out quicker. In theory, adding some Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay concepts into Harbaugh’s approach could raise the ceiling of this offense, in the long run. The hope is that these changes would take some pressure off Herbert. In practice, Herbert has been uncomfortable doing too much thinking rather than naturally reacting post-snap. At times, he is indecisive. At other times, he is too loose with the football. After throwing only three interceptions two years ago, he has already tossed seven picks this season. Injuries have mounted as well. Once again, the offensive line is a M*A*S*H unit. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is on the injured list once again. Right tackle Joe Alt is out, as is free agent guard signing Kayode Awosoka. Los Angeles has not scored more than 17 points in four of their five games. The wide receiver room was banged up the last few weeks — but while Tre Harris remains out, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are returning to the field this afternoon. Johnston continues to struggle at the NFL level in his fourth season in the league. The defense is dealing with injuries, too, as safety Derwin James and cornerback Donte Jackson remain out. But defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson, along with linebackers Daiyan Henley and Marcus Dupree, took part in limited practice by the end of the week, which is a good sign they will play. All these injuries have compelled Harbaugh’s game management to become conservative (mostly, he does regret an ill-advised decision to go for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter against the Broncos in an attempt to spark his winless team). The Chargers are going to burn time off the clock in “first one to score 20 points then wins” contests. The banged-up Los Angeles defense has held their last two opponents to 286 and 224 yards. Herbert completed only 14 of 24 passes last week for 121 yards — and the Chargers have played 5 straight Unders after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. A -2 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Los Angeles’ bye week is on deck — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the game before their bye week. They have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when getting +3.5 to +9.5 points. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first game after their bye since Andy Reid became their head coach. They have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less, including all 6 of those games against fellow AFC West rivals. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries as well, with number one wide receiver Rashee Rice out and starting left tackle Josh Simmons both out. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed only 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards two weeks ago against a Raiders defense that has been torched ever since. Kansas City has played 10 straight Unders with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In Reid’s tenure, they have played 31 of their 42 games at home Under the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals — and they have played 5 straight Unders when hosting the Chargers. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (281) and the Kansas City Chiefs (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.