Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 35-24 loss to Ole Miss as a 21-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati (3-1) has won three in a row after their 45-24 win against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa almost pulled the upset against a quality SEC opponent — they were only outgained by a 462 to 457 yardage margin to the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have a gunslinger under center in quarterback Davis Brin who completed 7 of 13 passes for 112 yards sharing time last week. The Bearcats can be passed on — they rank 93rd in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. Tulsa stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. After losing at Arkansas, Cincinnati has padded their statistics with an easy schedule that has included Miami (OH), Kennesaw State, and then the Hoosiers last week. The Bearcats have averaged 329.3 passing Yards-Per-Game in those three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a three-game stretch. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane has been a point-spread underdog 15 times. They have pulled off the upset victory in four of those games while covering the point spread in 13 of those 15 situations — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games as a dog. Those two-point spread losses were coin flip losses as well: They lost to Mississippi State in their bowl game in 2020 by two points as a 1-point dog and they lost to Tulane in 2019 by 12 points as a 10-point underdog. They have been getting +16, +13.5, and +22.5 points (last season) against Cincinnati in their last three meetings against them — but they have lost by just 3, 11, and then 8 points respectively in those games after a 28-20 loss in their house last year. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Tulsa. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/1:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon is with Under the Total in the game between Alabama and Arkansas. Alabama (4-0) comes off a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt as a 40.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. They have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Arkansas (3-1) looks to rebound from a 23-21 loss to Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog last week. The Razorbacks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.           

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month last Saturday on Washington State to help fuel their 12 of 18 (67%) Game of the Month/Year mark in All-Sports! Frank CA$HED with Boise State last night to further his 20 of 29 (69%) College Football run — and now he UNLEASHES a 25* CFB Conference Game of the Month this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!                                                                                                     

Frank is on an 11 of 16 (69%) All-Sports run after CA$HING his CFB play on Boise State last night to further his 22 of 35 (63%) All-Sports run over the last 19 days! Now Frank has the Alabama-Arkansas ATS winner on CBS-TV at 3:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (3-1) looks to rebound from their 23-21 loss to Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog in Dallas last Saturday. Alabama (4-0) comes off a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt as a 40.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has been vulnerable in true road games as of late. Head coach Nick Saban’s team has only one victory by more than a field in their last five games played in a hostile environment which includes their 20-19 win at Texas earlier this season as a three-touchdown favorite. Two of those narrow victories were the result of a late Crimson Tide score despite them being on average an 18.5-point road favorite in those games. Saban’s decisive edge in recruiting over the last decade has taken a step back with the rise of Georgia competing for those players and now the new era of NILs. This year’s team does not have the same elite talent at wide receiver as they have enjoyed in the past — and the offensive line is a work in progress. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. They went into halftime with a 31-3 lead over the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their previous game. They rushed for 228 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tide has 118 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 42 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 road games when favored by 14.5-21 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Arkansas outgained the Aggies last week by a 415 to 343 yardage margin but an 82-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for Texas A&M made the difference in the game. The Razorbacks also fumbled on the Aggies’ goal-line to blow a touchdown opportunity. They had a 70% post-game win probability so the result was a major disappointment for head coach Sam Pittman’s team. But there is nothing like the opportunity to upset Alabama to make things right again. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks have the skill players on offense that can move the ball against the Crimson Tide defense. Running back Raheim Sanders is averaging 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry behind a big offensive and experienced offensive line — and he is averaging 3.9 yards after contact. Junior quarterback K.J. Jefferson is a dual threat who led the team to a 9-4 record last year with six wins against bowl teams. The defense has already registered 20 sacks — and they rank fourth in the nation in Passing Downs Sack Rate. This is an area where Alabama is vulnerable as they rank 87th in the FBS in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will be confident in this game after only losing by a 42-35 score as a 20.5-point underdog last year against Alabama in Tallahassee. The Razorbacks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SEC opponents. 10* CFB Alabama-Arkansas CBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). THE SITUATION: Toledo (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at San Diego State as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Central Michigan (1-3) looks to rebound from a 33-14 loss at Penn State as a 28-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo returns home after a tough two-game stretch on the road that started with a trip to Columbus to play Ohio State. The Rockets outgained the Aztecs by a 376 to 282 yardage margin but still managed to lose the game. Toledo has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a two-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games on the road. They are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. While the Buckeyes embarrassed them by scoring 77 points, the Rockets have held their three other opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Mid-American Conference opponents. Central Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss. They only gained 88 yards on the ground against the Nittany Lions — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not rushing for more than 100 yards in their last contest. The Chippewas’ offense may be dependent on the arm of quarterback Daniel Richardson but he is completing only 57.6% of his passes while averaging just 6.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 32.2 PPG — and they rank 84th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October under head coach Jim McElwain.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo should be fired up for this game after getting upset in Muskegon last year by a 26-23 score as a 5-point road favorite against Central Michigan on October 16th last season. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Rockets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.