Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 11/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday night was with BYU minus the points versus Cincinnati. BYU (9-1) rebounded from their loss against Texas Tech as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Cincinnati (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 30-24 upset loss at home against Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss to a fellow Big 12 rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog. Take BYU minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 16 of 18 (89%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays kept up by JUST CA$HING their 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year on Oregon to fuel their 78 of 116 (67%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! Frank is now on a 19 of 25 (76%) College Football run with featured plays to continue his 32 of 46 (70%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season — and now he furthers his 14 of 18 (78%) CFB Game of the Year/Month mark and his 11 of 15 (70%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR with his 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the BYU Cougars (135) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (136). THE SITUATION: BYU (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season against Texas Tech two weeks ago with a 44-13 victory against TCU as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 30-24 upset loss at home against Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cougars were very efficient in generating 447 yards against the Horned Frogs last week. They converted 8 of their 15 third and fourth down plays while scoring on all five of their trips inside the Red Zone. BYU ranks in the top ten in the nation in Quality Drives. They have scored at least 33 points in six of their ten games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including five of those seven games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 37 or more points. Led by freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, BYU has a balanced offense that ranks in the top 43 or better in the nation in Expected Points Added per Rush and EPA per Pass, along with ranking in the top 36 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. This offense is very effective in executing inside run zone concepts in 11 or 12 formations that can still effectively pass the ball with either three wide receivers or two tight ends on the field. Bachmeier completed 23 of 33 passes for 296 yards with a touchdown last week, and he added 59 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. The Cougars are going to score their share of points against a suspect Bearcats defense. Cincinnati ranks 116th in Opponent EPA per Play and 110th in Opponent Success Rate — and their defense struggles against both the rush and the pass. They rank 101st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 116th  in Opponent Rush Success. They also rank 98th in Opponent EPA per Dropback and 83rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. BYU is going to be able to establish the run pretty easily, which will set up Bachmeier punishing them with his arm. The Bearcats rank outside the top 110 in the FBS in Defensive Line Yards Allowed and Stuff Rate — and they allow their opponents a Success Rate of 62% when operating inside zone run schemes. The Cougars have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road against fellow Big 12 rivals. Cincinnati has surrendered 75 combined points in their last two games — and they have given up at least 30 points in seven of their games. The Wildcats generated 475 yards against them. But they have also scored at least 37 points in four of their last seven games. They get back senior running back Evan Pryor and junior wide receiver Caleb Goode for this game, which should be a shot in the arm for this offense that missed them when they were both out with injuries. This Bearcats offense does not usually beat themselves as they rank fourth in the nation in Avoiding Momentum Killing Plays. They are scoring 4.9 points per trip inside their opponents' 40-yard line. They also play at a quick pace by averaging only 24.5 seconds per play. At home, they are generating 424.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 37.8 Points-Per-Game. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby leads a passing attack that ranks 12th in the nation in EPA per Dropback. But where Cincinnati should find immediate success with their ground game that ranks 6th in EPA per Rush and 4th in Rushing Success Rate. Stopping the run is where the Cougars are vulnerable — they rank 73rd in Opponent EPA per Rush and 71st in Opponent Rushing Success Rate. On the road, BYU is surrendering 388.2 total YPG. The Cougars generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bearcats have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Additionally, they have played all 3 of their games this season Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. 

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield has seen his teams play 9 of their 13 home games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points in his head coaching career. BYU has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including five of those six games played on the road. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the BYU Cougars (135) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (136). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 11/22:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday was on Tulane minus the points versus Temple at 3:45 PM ET. Tulane (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 35-24 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win against a fellow American Athletic Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. Temple (5-5) has lost two games in a row after their 14-13 loss at Army as a 7-point underdog back on November 8th. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after a loss to a conference opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Take Tulane minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 15 of 17 (88%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays kept up after a WINNING 2-0 Friday to fuel their 77 of 115 (67%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! Frank is now on an 18 of 24 (75%) College Football run with featured plays after DELIVERING his 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with NC State’s UPSET WIN against FSU last night to continue his 31 of 45 (69%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season — and now he furthers his 13 of 17 (76%) CFB Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year for Saturday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). THE SITUATION: Oregon (9-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-13 win against Minnesota as a 27-point favorite last Friday. USC (8-2) has won three games in a row after a 26-21 victory against Iowa as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans escaped their game with the Hawkeyes despite a post-game win expectancy of just 45%. They remain alive for the College Football Playoff — but this is a must-win game, as is their traditional showdown with UCLA next week. Responding positively to pressure has not been a strength of this football team under fourth-year head coach Lincoln Riley (or under any USC head coach since Pete Carroll) — and consistency has been a particular problem since Riley took over. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning here or more games in a row. USC comes into this game at less than full strength. Junior running back Waymond Jordan remains out — but freshmen King Miller has been a revelation. But the loss of strong safety Bishop Fitzgerald from an injury last week, which will keep him out, really hurts. The Trojans' defense is improved from last year, but that unit remains below average when it comes to potential playoff teams. Their defense ranks 50th in Opponent Expected Points per Play and 79th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They particularly struggle in stopping the run, where they rank 101st in Opponent EPA per Rush and 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate — and that plays right into Oregon’s strength on offense, detailed below. The hope is that the explosive USC offense that generates 490.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 38.2 Points-Per-Game which simply puts more points on the scoreboard — but ranking 125th in starting field position does them no favors against the best defense they have played all season. The Trojans' offense is much better at home, where they are scoring 45 PPG — but on the road, that mark drops by almost 17 PPG to a 27.5 PPG mark. Their defense also surrenders -46.5 net YPG versus their season average when on the road. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. And while they seem most comfortable playing on the Bermuda grass at home in the LA Coliseum, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on field turf like what they will experience at Autzen Stadium. Oregon should continue to build off their momentum in this contest. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home after a victory by 28 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 18 of their 27 games since Dan Lanning took over as their head coach after winning three or more games in a row. Oregon boasts one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank second in the FBS by holding their opponents to 3.99 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 8th in Opponent EPA per Play. USC wants to throw the ball with quarterback Jayden Maiava — but the Ducks lead the nation by limiting their opponents to just 4.9 passing Yards-Per-Attempt. They also rank second in Opponent EPA per Dropback and sixth in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Oregon only gives up 127.3 passing YPG — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who are not giving up more than 150 passing YPG. And while the Ducks are holding their opponents to only 235.4 total YPG this season, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are not giving up more than 350 YPG. On the other side of the ball, it all starts with Oregon’s ground game with three capable running backs that have them leading the nation in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in EPA per Rush. Now they face a Trojans' defense that just let Iowa run the ball 33 times for 183 rushing yards while enjoying a success rate of 67% on those rushes. At home, the Ducks are outgaining their opponents by +252.6 net YPG and outscoring them by +29.8 PPG. Take your pick on whether their 42.0 PPG/473.3 YPG on offense or their 12.2 PPG/220.7 YPG on defense at home is gaudier. Oregon has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected higher-scoring games with the total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: It is a testament to fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning that his football team’s only losses in the last two seasons were either to the eventual national champion or a team that reached the championship game (two losses to Washington two seasons ago) — and their lone loss this season was against Indiana that is one of the three remaining unbeaten teams in college football. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games — and the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their contests. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (182) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.