At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (261) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (262). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) kicked off their season with a 33-27 victory at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (0-1) looks to rebound from their 36-31 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The rebuilt Cincinnati defense impressed last week by holding the Buccaneers to just 282 yards of offense. They scored a defensive touchdown on a 27-yard fumble recovery while enjoying a +3 net turnover margin. The Bengals are going to be very hard to beat if they are giving quarterback Joe Burrow extra possessions — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games under head coach Zac Taylor after playing a game where 30 or more combined points were scored. The Bengals missed the playoffs for the third straight season — and it was the third time in quarterback Joe Burrow’s last six seasons when an injury significantly impacted his playing time. He missed nine games last season, and Cincinnati stumbled to a 6-11 record. Turnover luck was certainly not on their side last year. Their 24 turnovers were the most for this franchise since 2014 — and they endured the second-highest turnover rate per drive in the NFL last season. They also were the victims of nine defensive touchdowns last year. They should see less harsh numbers in those categories this year. First-year defensive coordinator Al Golden did oversee improvements in the second half of the season. They did not allow more than 24 points in five of their last six games. After ranking last in Defensive DVOA in the first nine weeks of the season, Cincinnati improved to 13th in those metrics for the rest of the season — and this was the biggest improvement in Defensive DVOA in the second half of the season in the last decade. The evidence is muddy as to whether significant second half of the season improvements on defense carry over into the next season — although it may indicate that Golden found his legs regarding play-calling and player management in his rookie season as a defensive coordinator at the NFL level. Perhaps trading away defensive end Trey Hendricksen cleared the air and changed the dynamic in the locker room? Rookie linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight, Jr. showed promise. Defensive end Myles Murphy enjoyed a breakout season. Burrow spent the closing moments of the 2025-26 season pressuring ownership to get out its checkbooks while subtly reminding them that he turns 30 in December. General manager Duke Tobin was given the green light to get aggressive in acquiring talent. His biggest splash was to trade away their first-round pick to bring in defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence from the New York Giants. Bringing in a stud 350-lb run stuffer and pass rusher who is just a year older than Burrow to replace the presence of Hendricksen was a nice start to push all the chips in. Tobin then signed defensive end Boye Mafe from Seattle and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen from Minnesota to revamp the defensive line around the emerging Murphy at the other defensive end spot. Tobin also signed free safety Bryan Cook from Kansas City. All this support could help the development of their pair of former Michigan first and second round draft picks, Daxton Hill and D.J. Turner, to meet their potential. On the other side of the ball, it is interesting that Burrow described the offensive line at the end of the season as the best one he has ever played behind. Third-round draft pick Dylan Fairchild became the starting left guard, and veteran Dalton Risner settled in at right guard after he was picked up in August. Former first-round pick Amarius Mims seemed to see the light in his second season. Frankly, left tackle Orlando Brown remains an issue — but if this offensive line can even be above average and the defense is improving, then it would seem anything could be possible with Burrow, along with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins leading their scoring attack. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road. Houston’s highly-touted defense got exposed last week by surrendering 409 yards. The Texans have now failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and quarterback C.J. Stroud has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games in the first two weeks of a new season. That does not speak well for him or head coach DeMeco Ryans. But any and all understanding of this Texans franchise starts with taking a closer look at general manager Nick Caserio. In my deep dive on this team last season, after observing that Caserio drafted two wide receivers from that passing game juggernaut that is Iowa State before drafting two USC players in a row, I decided to do some digging. I discovered that of the 41 draft picks he made in his first five seasons as Houston’s general manager, 40 of them were from Power Four or Five conferences, with the lone exception being a player from Notre Dame (who do not play in a conference as an independent). It was bated breath that I followed Caserio’s 2026 draft — and the dude did it again! Eight draft picks — and eight more Power Four conference players chosen. For those keeping score of his 49 draft picks in his six drafts, 48 came from Power Five/Four conference programs and the other came from Notre Dame. As I wrote last year at this time: “I get it: the better athletes play at Power Four/Five conference schools. But the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too! It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chances on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns.” A year later, I will add this point: game theory would at least beg Caserio to blow a sixth-round pick on the Boise State player the highest on the draft board, just to throw off your competition that your scouting consists exclusively of watching college football games broadcast on CBS or ABC. Even a monkey randomly jabbing at the keyboard would take a stab at a North Dakota State player, and that 100th monkey might even uncover Jerry Rice. Is this laziness? Arrogance? Dogmatism? Is it possible that after serving as the Personnel Director for Bill Belichick with the New England Patriots for 13 seasons, someone might have developed these negative characteristics?!? Unfortunately, I fear that this is emblematic of Caserio's regime as the general manager of this football team. The offensive line remains a disaster. Two years ago, Caserio invested $52.3 million to upgrade the offensive line, the sixth most in the NFL. That venture was almost a complete failure as the team went into last season with four new starters on the offensive line. But after bottoming out in a 28-16 loss at New England in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, Caserio reshuffled again with two more draft picks and three more free agents for a unit that will have at least three new starters. The last time the Texans had all five primary offensive linemen return for a second consecutive season was in 2018. Since quarterback C.J. Stroud was drafted, there have been 20 different starters on the offensive line. Here is the statement Caserio made after the 2025 draft when responding to criticism that he did not do enough to fortify the offensive line in last April’s draft: “The whole perception, well, you need this position, you need that position, I mean, that’s made up; we don’t approach it that way. … This whole concept of drafting for need, honest to God, I don’t even know what it means.” Uhh, wut? Frankly, this guy is dumb as dirt or full of shit — and maybe both. So, sorry, but when such an incurious approach to player evaluation in the draft is combined with abject failure after abject failure on the offensive line — while making arrogant and dogmatic comments like that — well, I begin to start losing confidence. On the subject of losing confidence, Stroud enters his fourth season in the league coming off a disastrous effort in the playoff loss to the Patriots. In throwing four interceptions in that game, he looked shell-shocked to such a point that benching him in the second half should have been on the table. I’ll step back and play Devil’s Advocate defending him. Injuries meant he was playing without both wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. The offensive line could not establish any semblance of a running game. Perhaps Stroud thought he had to put the entire offense on his shoulders — and that led to mistakes. He did do a better job in the regular season of reducing negative plays, so perhaps this was only an aberration. But he is not going to be able to hide from a postseason that featured five interceptions and another five fumbles (two turnovers). The Football Outsiders (now at FTN) Defensive-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement passing metric rated Stroud’s postseason as the worst in NFL history. Stroud has regressed from his nice rookie season. In that year three years ago, he posted a 13.2% Pass Explosion rate and a 4.8% Highlight Play rate. Last season, his Pass Explosion rate was only 9.2%, and his Highlight Play rate was 2.4%. Certainly, some of that should lie at the feet of first-year offensive coordinator Nick Caley. According to the Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency numbers, the offense was better last year. But their 327.0 total Yards-Per-Game average was just +7.3 net YPG above the final year under offensive coordinator Slowick. What was most evident was not just that Caley lacked an effective counter-punch when defenses like New England exposed them; it’s that he lacked even a Plan B when Plan A was clearly failing. Was the problem his lack of creativity? Was the problem the lack of depth on the offensive roster, despite all those Power Conference draft picks? Was the 2024 Iowa State offensive playbook unavailable for that playoff game? Something’s gotta give here — because the unit that is not giving much room is the defense. Led by All-Pros Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter at both defensive ends, along with All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr., this unit is oozing with talent. With Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre joining Stingley in their base 4-2-5 look, Houston has the best trio of cornerbacks in the league. Adding former Philadelphia Eagles captain Reed Blankenship at strong safety was a nice touch (but don’t tell Caserio that Blankenship comes from Middle Tennessee). Caserio deserves his flowers for his role in helping construct this defense. He was aggressive in signing Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery in free agency. While the Iowa State alum fits the Power Conference template, he was needed because USC running back Woody Marks was not ready for full-time snaps at the NFL level after being drafted in the fourth round last season. I turn to head coach Demeco Ryans as he enters his fourth season. Too often, he smiles like he just got away with stealing a cookie from the cookie jar when a coin flip goes his way. For me, it’s a tell that he does not expect to win, as if he is the anti-Mike Tomlin. It looks like moments of wonderment and imposter syndrome, as if he somehow coaxed a better poker player to fold his or her hand. Watch him sometime. It’s as if he is surprised he got away with it (as opposed to Tomlin, whose dead stare would just grow colder as if finally catching a break only reminds him of all the bad breaks that unfairly went before him). Impostor syndrome is an interesting way to remember Stroud’s face amidst his disastrous fourth interception against the Patriots. And impostor syndrome may be the apt way to describe a general manager who lacks the confidence to assess collegiate talent, so he tries to play it safe with the Power Conferences. The Texans defense is no impostor. But perhaps the dirty little secret is that Caserio is self-aware enough to know he lucked his way into Stingley, Jr. and Anderson meeting their sky-high potential as first-round picks? The defense is their ace — and as Caserio once again discards his remaining four cards on the offensive line and tries his luck with new cards, will this time finally be different? But can the quarterback rebound from the psychic damage that this five-card draw strategy has already inflicted? Last week’s results were not a good sign. The Texans managed to score 31 points against the Bills in a losing effort — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: With Burrow starting under center, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games as an underdog of three points or less. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (261) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
