Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Newcastle United (200097) with the goal-line versus Fulham (200098). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W14-D7-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at home against West Ham United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Fulham (W11-D14-L12) ended a two-match losing streak with a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE NEWCASTLE UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: These are two EPL squads moving in the opposite direction, despite both having 49 points in league action. The Magpies reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League this season and pulled out a 1-1 draw in their first leg with Barcelona in March. But they got crushed on the road in the second leg by a 7-2 score, which triggered a five-match losing streak across all competitions. Newcastle United achieved a nice accomplishment by qualifying for the Champions League last season — but losing forward Alexander Isak to Liverpool in the transfer market last fall took away one of their best players for this year’s campaign. EPL sides outside the big six are challenged by European competition because they tend to lack the budget to fortify their bench with the quality necessary to sustain multi-match weekly schedules. But the Magpies have started playing better now that their European soccer commitments are done, as they are unbeaten in their last three matches with two victories. They have scored seven goals and only given up three goals in that stretch. The losing streak put Howe’s future in jeopardy — but the players have rallied around him. Currently in 11th place due to their goal differential, Newcastle has the opportunity to finish in the top half of the table with a victory, which will go a long way to sustain momentum with their fan base. Howe appreciates that this dynamic is important. He said after the win against the Hammers: “It was really important we didn’t end on a negative. I want to produce a team that the supporters really identify with, that they love coming to see. We’ve pretty much been that, although there have been times this season where we’ve dropped below that. The big thing is for the supporters to love the players and the players to love the supporters … The connection with the supporters was really strong and that gives me real hope for the future because that is number one. I’m very grateful, and it’s never taken for granted because we know this season’s been a challenge.” Striker William Oscula was signed as a potential replacement for Isak in the fall — and he is finding a rhythm with five goals in his last six EPL matches. The Magpies have a W4-D5-L9 record on the road in the EPL, but their 17 points away from home were below their 21.43 expected points based on expected Goals (xG) data. Newcastle beat Chelsea and Tottenham on the road in the EPL earlier this season. Fulham is limping down the homestretch with only two goals in their last six matches — and they have blanked in seven of their last 10 matches. The Cottagers have only won once in their last six EPL matches. Their key defenseman, Joachim Andersen, is suspended for this match. In 13th place on the EPL table, they have nothing to play for in this match — and even building momentum for next season is not an immediate goal. Manager Marco Silva appears to be overseeing his last match with the club, with rumors abound that he is set to sign a new contract to take over at Benfica. On paper, Fulham has a W10-D2-L6 record in the EPL when playing at home at Craven Cottage — but the deeper metrics suggest they have overachieved. While they have 32 points at home this season, their expected points drop to 26.38. They have scored 28 times at home, but their eG is 26.93. They have surrendered 20 goals at home in the EPL this season — but their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) rises to 24.15. In their last five matches at home across all competitions, they have lost three times with only four goals scored. 

FINAL TAKE: The Magpies have beaten the Cottagers twice already this season. In the reverse fixture in the EPL on October 25th, Newcastle won by a 2-1 score. They then followed that up with another 2-1 victory against Fulham in the quarterfinals of the EFL Cup on December 17th. The Cottagers look to be on the proverbial beach playing for a lame duck manager. Newcastle is closing strong and playing for the future of their manager. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Newcastle United (200097) with the goal-line versus Fulham (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.