Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (29-6) has won six straight games with their 76-65 win over Bradley on Thursday as an 18-point favorite in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota (22-13) has won three of their last four games after they pulled the upset over Louisville on Thursday by an 86-76 score as a 5-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers made 50% of their shots against the Cardinals which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last fifteen games. They also made eleven 3-pointers in a rare outbreak of effective 3-point shooting despite their 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc when playing away from home — that road mark ranks just 274th in the nation. Minnesota wants to get to the free throw line — they led the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 39.9%. But Michigan State was second in the Big Ten with an opponent’s FTA: FGA rate of 26.4%. The Gophers have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win. Minnesota has also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Gophers have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 13 games against fellow Big Ten opponents, Minnesota has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Michigan State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow Big Ten rivals. The Under is also 25-10-1 in their last 36 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Spartans have seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total. Michigan State looked tired on Thursday in their win over Bradley — and both teams have thin benches at this point of the season. The pace will likely be slow between these two familiar foes. 10* CBB Minnesota-Michigan State O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (846) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (29-6) has won six straight games with their 76-65 win over Bradley on Thursday as an 18-point favorite in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota (22-13) has won three of their last four games after they pulled the upset over Louisville on Thursday by an 86-76 score as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Golden Gophers were able to win for their head coach Rick Pitino’s father after Louisville fired him for running a brothel for high school basketball recruits on campus. Minnesota is likely to experience a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. The Golden Gophers have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a point spread win. This is a terrible matchup for Minnesota to have to face a familiar Big Ten opponent in the second round of the tournament (one of many fundamental mistakes the committee made). The Golden Gophers made 50% of their shots against the Cardinals which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last fifteen games. They also made eleven 3-pointers in a rare outbreak of effective 3-point shooting despite their 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc when playing away from home — that road mark ranks just 274th in the nation. Minnesota wants to get to the free throw line — they led the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 39.9%. But Michigan State was second in the Big Ten with an opponent’s FTA: FGA rate of 26.4%. The Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to covert the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by at least 10 points. Tom Izzo’s team is one of the most balanced in the country as they rank 4th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Sparty is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. A big weakness for this team now is their thin bench after the season-ending ankle injury to Kyle Ahrens — but the Golden Gophers are in little position to take advantage of this vulnerability as they are basically a five-player unit that only goes seven deep when necessary.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State buried Minnesota by a 79-55 score in the lone meeting between these two teams back on February 9th. While the Gophers have revenge on their minds, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Spartans. 10* CBB Minnesota-Michigan State CBS-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (846) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (851). THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (31-3) bounced-back from their upset loss to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference championship game with a resounding 87-49 win over Fairleigh Dickinson on Thursday to cover the whopping 28.5-point spread. Baylor (20-13) snapped a four-game losing streak on Thursday by pulling a 78-69 upset over Syracuse as a 2-point underdog. This West region showdown takes place in Salt Lake City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor was on-fire against the Orange 2-3 zone defense as they made 53.8% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. Drawing Syracuse was fortuitous for head coach Scott Drew’s team since they often practice against the junk zone defenses he has his frequently deploy. The Orange are usually most vulnerable with that 2-3 zone against good offensive rebounding teams since that scheme leads the area around the rim open. Baylor is 2nd in the nation by pulling down 38.1% of their missed shots. But Gonzaga does a good job of protecting their defensive glass as they held their conference opponents to pull down only 25.4% of their missed shots. Expect a letdown from the Bears tonight as they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. This Baylor team overachieved relative to expectations — but their slump down the stretch of the season was, in large part, due not being able to keep compensating for the season-ending injury to their best player, Tristan Clark. Once their offensive rebounding is accounted for, the Bears are an average basketball team. They rank just 78th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On offense, Baylor ranks 137th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 51.4% — and they rank only 167th in the nation by making just 34.5% of their 3-pointers. The Bears are just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament under Drew. Gonzaga should dominate this game — they are one of eight teams in the nation ranked in the Top-20 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Zags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last contest. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor had scored more than 1.0 Points-Per-Possession just once in their previous four games before exploding on offense against Syracuse. The Bears made 16 of 34 (47.1%) of their 3-pointers in that game while pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. They will be hard-pressed to replicate that performance tonight. While I am not in love with laying this many points, the Zags are definitely worth an investment even laying the 14 or so points. 10* CBB Baylor-Gonzaga TBS-TV Special with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (851). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (840) minus the points versus the Murray State Racers (839). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State got to the free throw line 37 times against the Catamounts on Thursday where they made 31 of these charity stripe shots — and Vermont was just 7 of 13 from the line themselves. That is a fantastic formula for head coach Leonard Hamilton’s team — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after attempting at least 20 more free throws than their opponent in their last game. This Seminoles team that returned almost every important piece from last year’s group that reached the Elite Eight goes ten deep with long and athletic players. Hamilton pushes the pace on offense while pressing on defense to keep the pace high to wear out opponents. Injuries slowed this team down early in the year — but they have lost to just North Carolina and Duke since January 20th. Florida State is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games played on a neutral court — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles will enjoy a significant advantage on the offensive glass as they pull down 33.0% of their missed shots which is 40th best in the nation. This is an area of vulnerability for the Racers — while they do a good job of moving their opponents off the 3-point line, their lack of size makes them vulnerable at the rim. Murray State allows their opponents to rebound 30.3% of their missed shots which is 265th in the nation. The Racers are a popular pick with bettors today in part because they have rewarded their backers in eight of their last ten games. But that may be Fool’s Gold now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in eight of their last ten contests. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Murray State makes 49.7% of their shots for the year — but Florida State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against opponents who make at least 48% of their baskets. The Racers gave also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Morant is a superstar — but the fast pace and waves of athletic defenders that Hamilton will throw at him will likely tire him out before this game is over. 10* CBB Murray State-Florida State TNT Special with the Florida State Seminoles (840) minus the points versus the Murray State Racers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators and the Michigan Wolverines. Florida (20-15) has won three of their last four games with their 70-61 win over Nevada on Thursday. The Gators have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Florida has also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Michigan (29-6) comes off a 74-55 win over Montana on Thursday. The Wolverines have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total played on a neutral court. The Under is also 6-2-1 in Michigan’s last 9 games in the NCAA Tournament. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports TIPPED OFF their busy Saturday card by CA$HING on Maryland plus the points versus LSU in the NCAA Tourney to improve a SIZZLING 25 of 41 (61%) All-Sports mark over the last twelve days along with a 50 of 83 (60%) All-Sports run over the last twenty-four days for March Madness! Now Frank’s NEXT WINNER is with the Florida-Michigan ATS winner on CBS-TV at 5:15 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Frank LOVES expanding his profit margin by finding value in Over/Under plays — he has been remarkably consistent with his current 41 of 62 (66%) CBB TOTALS TEAR which is RIGHT IN LINE with his deeper 76 of 116 (66%) CBB Totals mark! Now Frank spots an OUTSTANDING O/U OPPORTUNITY for the Murray State-Florida State O/U winner at 6:10 PM ET which is his 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers shocked a strong scoring team in the Golden Eagles by holding them to just 32.4% shooting from the field. While Ja Morant gets all the headlines for this team as he pushes up his NBA draft stock, what is underappreciated about this upstart mid-major is their strong half-court defense. Head coach Matt McMahon’s team ranks 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% — and they are also 3rd in the nation with their opponents making just 28.4% of their 3-pointers. When playing away on the road or neutral courts, the Racers’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45% is 6th best in the country. The Seminoles can struggle with their shooting as their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% ranks 180th in the nation — and they make only 33.4% of their 3-pointers which is 223rd in the nation. Murray State has played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after an upset victory. The Racers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points. Additionally, Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. And while the Racers made 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc against Marquette, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their game with Vermont finished Over the 133 point total, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, the Seminoles have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the number set in the 140s. And while Murray State outscores their opponents by +15.6 PPG, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Morant is a star in the making — but he will be harassed by a horde of tough defenders from Florida State who will try to coax him to rely on his teammates. The Seminoles will also struggle to score in their half court offense. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (848) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (847). THE SITUATION: Michigan (29-6) advanced to the Round of 32 on Thursday with their 74-55 win over Montana as a 15-point favorite. Florida (20-15) pulled off a 70-61 upset over Nevada on Thursday as a 3-point favorite. This West regional matchup takes place in Des Moines.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators have been good to bettors as of late as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. But Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. The Gators are a Slow Giant Killer with their slow tempo combining with a great defense with crashing the offensive boards — but that profile tends to not be effective against elite defensive favorites like Michigan who control their defensive glass. Florida is 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.6% of their opponent’s possessions — but the Wolverines are 3rd in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.3% of their possessions. And while the Gators pull down 31.2% of their missed shots (83rd in the nation), Michigan limits their opponents to rebounding only 25.3% of their missed shots (49th in the nation). That will likely leave Florida relying on taking advantage of their limited scoring opportunities since turnovers or second-chances after offensive rebounds will be limited. But this is the weakest part of the Gators’ game as they make only 49.9% of their shots inside the arc (194th in the nation) while hitting just 33.3% of their 3-pointers which is 225th in the country. Only Noah Locke out their regular rotation makes at least 36% of their shots from behind the arc — so keying on him will be a priority for the Wolverines. Michigan has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.7% is seventh best in the nation and they rank 5th in the nation with their opponents making only 28.7% of their 3-pointers. About 1/4 of the Gators’ possessions conclude with a spot-up jumper — so long scoring spells are highly likely this afternoon. Florida is 3-11 straight-up in the fourteen games this season where they did not score at least at a 1.00 Point-Per-Possession rate — and that spells trouble facing this Wolverines’ team that limited Big Ten opponents to just 0.94 PPP. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a double-digit victory. The team got 22 points from Charles Matthews who had been injured for the last few games in the regular season — so seeing him find his game again is a big boost for them on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines have not allowed more than 65 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 65 points for at least three straight games. This is a veteran group that is battle-tested in NCAA Tournament games after their run to the championship game last season. What this group has improved since last year is their free throw shooting. Michigan made 19 of 24 (79%) free throws against Montana after making 10 of 12 (83%) free throws in their loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after making at least 78% of their free throws in two straight games. The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams with a winning record under John Beilein. Michigan is also a decisive 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games when playing on a neutral court — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan lacks a definitive go-to scorer — but they have three future NBA players who can create their own shot. Too much scoring for this Gators team that will be hard-pressed to score buckets all game. 10* CBB Florida-Michigan CBS-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (848) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (841) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (842). THE SITUATION: Maryland (23-10) advanced to the Round of 32 on Thursday with their 79-77 victory over Belmont as a 3-point underdog. LSU (27-6) has won six of their last seven games on Thursday as they outlasted Yale by a 79-74 score as a 7-point favorite. This East regional game is being played in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU held the Bulldogs to just 37.5% shooting which was tied for the best defensive effort in their last five games. Defense is not a strength for this Tigers team as they rank just 59th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while LSU has allowed only 29 and 25 points in the first half in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in their last two games. The Tigers enjoyed a 45-29 point lead at the half against Yale before letting them back into the game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. I was not surprised that this LSU team responded on Thursday with a victory despite the controversy regarding the suspension of their head coach, Will Wade, for apparent illegal paying of players. But the Tigers are a better team with Wade leading the way as he is an excellent court tactician in addition to being a cheater. Wade’s late-game moves have helped LSU go 5-2 in games that needed overtime to decide — and the Tigers have now won six games decided in regulation by 5 points or less. A few bad breaks going the other way and this team has another four to six losses on the record. Now LSU faces this young Maryland team that matches up very well against them. The Tigers thrive inside the paint in both scoring and offensive rebounding. LSU averages 38.6 points per game inside the paint — and they generated 1090 shots inside the restricted area entering the tournament. But the Terrapins have two intimidating rim protectors in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith who help the Terrapins limit their opponents to just a 44.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Tigers rank 5th in the nation by pulling down 37.2% of their missed shots — but Maryland limits their opponents to rebounding only 24.8% of their missed shots which ranks 35th in the nation. LSU also generated 22% of their points by getting to the free throw line: they ranked 48th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 37.9%. But the Terrapins do not put their opponents on the line — they rank 24th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA: FGA ratio of 26.7%. But the Tigers struggle to generate points from the outside as they make only 32.1% of their 3-pointers (286th in the nation) which results in only 25.2% of their overall points coming from behind the arc. LSU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Maryland has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point scored in 4 straight games when playing their second game in three days on the road. And while the Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in two straight contests. Maryland’s head coach, Mark Turgeon, is one of the best in the business — he gives the Terps a significant sideline edge in this game versus LSU’s interim head coach Tony Benford. Don’t be surprised if Turgeon has his team play zone defenses to dare the Tigers to shoot from the outside. While the Terrapins are the fourth youngest team in the nation, they are one of the most balanced teams in the country as they rank 26th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. With Fernando and Smith crashing the glass, Maryland ranks 25th in the nation by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots — and they should have a field day against this Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots (263rd in the nation). The Terrapins are also a dangerous underdog because they nailed 36.2% of their 3-pointers which was second best in the Big Ten. The Terrapins are led by a dynamic scoring point guard in Anthony Cowan. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: I was worried about Maryland getting by Belmont in their opening game given their inexperience — but they become dangerous now that they have a tournament win under the belt of the six freshman in their rotation. The Terrapins match up very well against this LSU team. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CBB Maryland-LSU CBS-TV Special with the Maryland Terrapins (841) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.