Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Japan (225373) minus the goal-line versus Tunisia (225374) in their Group F match in the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Japan (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw in their opening World Cup match against the Netherlands last Sunday. Tunisia (W0-D0-L1) lost their opening World Cup contest by a 5-1 score against Sweden on Sunday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Monterrey in Guadalupe, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE JAPAN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The most challenging aspect in assessing this match is the impact of the Tunisia national program sacking manager Sabri Lamouchi after the embarrassing loss to the Swedes. It’s the earliest firing of a head coach during the World Cup in the history of the event. To be fair, Lamouchi was not dealt a great hand — and the powers at be of this organization appear to be irrational hot heads. The Eagles of Carthage’s previous manager was Sami Tribelsi, who led them through the World Cup qualifying stage with a W9-D1-L0 record and zero goals conceded. But after a loss to Mali via penalty kicks in the Round of 16 of the 2025 AFCON, he was fired. Tunisia was playing with a man advantage after the 29th minute due to a red card that fueled the anger at Tribelsi. By the way, Tribelsi was originally hired by these folks after his stint as a beIN pundit during the 2023 AFCON (taking place in 2024, as the 2025 AFCON finished in early January this year), where he was a vocal critic of the Tunisian manager at the time. Hiring guys out of the TV booth is one of my biggest pet peeves, and it rarely works. Lamouchi had previously been the skipper for Cardiff City and Nottingham Forest, amongst many spots in England and the Middle East. He promised to bring a more progressive style with a vertical attack, which was probably exactly what his potential bosses wanted to hear after the Mali debacle in the AFCON. But that approach is what you get against quality European sides. A 5-0 loss in their final friendly against Belgium on June 6th was the canary in the coal mine. Against Sweden last week, the Eagles of Carthage controlled possession for 51% of that match — but they only generated 0.28 expected Goals (xG) from a mere six shots (only two on target and zero Big Chances of at least a 35% expected goal rate). The Swedes only generated 1.33 xG — but they were given four Big Chances with Lamouchi lamenting that his squad committed “too many mistakes.” This opening match was considered a must-win for both teams, with the Netherlands and Japan remaining in the group. Tunisia was prepared to turn to their technical director, Mondher Kebaier, as their caretaker for the rest of this event, but they were able to convince Herve Renard as their immediate manager with the expectation that a longer-term collaboration will be worked out after the match. Renard is a professional manager. The 57-year-old was most recently the national manager for Saudi Arabia before getting sacked in April. He oversaw that team’s 2-1 upset victory against Argentina in their opening match in the 2022 World Cup. He previously was the manager for Morocco for the 2018 World Cup. My notes on him for that event consist of descriptions like this: “intensity,” “fitness,” defensive solidity,” “great coach for international play.” He was considered a Svengali for hire in Africa at the time. But what can he do in five days? In other sports like football or basketball, it is expected that there will be some sort of short-term bounce in effort and intensity from the locker room after a head coach is fired. But I don’t think lack of effort or intensity was this group’s problem against Sweden. They just got exposed. I was already worried about their group stage play, which did not include even one opponent ranked in the top 100 in the FIFA rankings  — and four of those victories were narrow one-goal affairs. Tunisia has only won three matches in their seven World Cup appearances — and they have never reached the knockout stage. Lamouchi perhaps tried to buy himself time by choosing a younger roster. In hindsight, not selecting captain Ferjani Sassi was too clever by half, as this group certainly could have used the 33-year-old’s experience and composure anchoring the midfield. Yassine Meriah and his 99 career caps with the national team were another surprising omission. With Renard likely to stay on after this tournament, I don’t think the players will check out. But what he inherits right now is a young and mostly overmatched group. In their last three matches against Sweden, Belgium, and Austria (the last two were friendlies this month), they have lost all three matches while conceding 11 goals and scoring just once. The change I expect Renard to immediately make is to abandon the three-man backline and go back to the defensive emphasis under Trabesi, which includes a four-man backline. The goal now is not to get humiliated — so the powers that be get out their checkbooks after this tournament. A 2-0 loss against Japan is a moral victory. They face a Japan side looking to finally break through in the quarterfinals of the World Cup.The Samurai Blue arguably outplayed Belgium in a 3-2 loss in the Round of 16 in 2018 -- and they watched the Red Devils then reach the semifinals. In the 2022 World Cup, they beat Germany and Spain in the group stage before arguably outplaying Croatia in the Round of 16, before losing in the penalty shootout. Croatia finished in third place. Japan has since defeated Germany (again), Brazil, and England in friendlies, with that latter match taking place on March 31st this year. The Samurai Blue have more players competing professionally in Europe than ever. The domestic professional Ji League is getting more and more physical. Manager  Hajime Moriyasu has led this team since the end of the 2018 World Cup. Given his experiences as the Under-23 skipper for the 2017 and 2021 World Cups, he has a long track record with many of the players on the roster. He is praised for his use of every player on the roster — and this is one of the reasons this group may have the most depth in the history of the national team. Against the Netherlands, this depth was on display as they rallied from 1-0 and 2-1 deficits to register a result in that critical match. They held the Dutch to just 0.78 xG and zero Big Chances, while relying on counter-attacks as they controlled possession only 40% of the time. 

FINAL TAKE: Against inferior opponents, Moriyasu deploys a more aggressive approach with relentless pressing to take advantage of their speed. In World Cup qualifiers, they scored 54 goals in 16 matches. With most of the books listing Japan as a -1 goal-line favorite, the question is what is more likely: a draw (or loss) or a multiple-goal victory. Given Sweden’s 5-1 loss to the Netherlands to start the day, a comfortable victory puts them in the driver’s seat to take at least second place in  Group F — and each additional goal they score makes it more difficult for the Swedes to overcome the net goal differential tie-breaker (Sweden and Japan are currently at +0 — so each additional goal gives them an additional cushion in a potential loss to the Swedes). The Samurai Blues can make lives much easier next week by going for a knockout tonight. 25* World Cup Group F Match of the Year with Japan (225373) minus the goal-line versus Tunisia (225374). Best of luck for us — Frank.