Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 6/11:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday was the Atlanta Hawks plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Atlanta (46-33) looks to rebound from their 118-102 loss at Philly in Game Two on Tuesday. They return home for the first time since May 30th in the fourth game of their opening-round series with New York. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games at home. Philadelphia (54-25) has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Take Atlanta plus the point(s). Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 22 of 33 (67%) NBA TOTALS TEAR that has furthered a 45 of 73 (62%) NBA Totals mark! Frank is also on an 83 of 135 basketball run with his highest-rated 25* plays — and now he furthers his 19 of 29 (66%) NBA Totals Game of the Year run with his 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533) and in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-29) has lost the first two games in this series after their 123-98 loss on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (57-23) has won five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Nuggets should play better at home in this must-win game. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. And while Denver has lost the first two games of this series by 17 and 25 points, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when trailing in the playoff series. Phoenix may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging two straight losses by 10 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 6/11:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday afternoon is with Turkey plus the goal-line versus Italy in their Group A match in the Euro 2020. Italy is the brand name in this contest — but they will be without their star midfielder Marco Verratti who remains out with the knee injury that kept him out of his last three matches for Paris-Saint Germain. The Azzuri has the home edge with this match being played in the Stadio Olympic in Rome — but tournament-opening matches can be nervy affairs for a host. Turkey is dangerous — after a win and a draw against the reigning World Cup champions France in 2019, they earned impressive 3-3 draws with Germany and Croatia in the fall of 2020 before defeating the Netherlands, 4-2, on March 24th this year. The youngest team in the tournament may not know they are supposed to be scared — and they are managed by a cagey veteran in Señor Gunes who guided the Turkish national team to third place in the 2002 World Cup. Italy will be more than pleased by a one-goal victory. Take Turkey plus the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer begins his Euro 2020 on a 17 of 28 (61%) Soccer run — and he closed out his Euro 2016 campaign on a 12 of 19 (63%) run! Now Frank furthers his 9 of 11 (82%) SOCCER TOTALS TEAR from last month with the Italy-Turkey O/U winner on ESPN at 3 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002) in a Group A match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy begins their Euro 2020 after playing last Friday when they defeated the Czech Republic by a 4-0 score in a friendly at home. Turkey last played on Thursday of last week when they defeated Moldova by a 2-0 score in a friendly. This match will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy is traditionally a defensive-oriented club. After a decline in quality which saw them fail to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia after competing in 12 straight World Cups and Euros, the national team went to former Manchester City head coach Roberto Mancini to right the ship. The Azzuri are unbeaten in 27 matches under his guidance with seven straight clean sheets across all competitions. They only allowed four goals in their ten matches in the Euro qualifying matches. Playing at home, I expect the Italians to be a bit nervy in this opening match delayed a full year due to the COVID global pandemic. This team will have a strong defense led by the Juventus center back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Cohesion from the familiarity of club teammates is one of the things I look for in these early international tournaments. Italy has one of the world’s rising stars as well in goaltender Gianluigi Donnarumma who stars for AC Milan. They also have a quality defensive midfielder in Jorginho who helped Chelsea just win the Champions League. The Blues will be without one of their key offensive pieces in midfielder Marco Verratti who has been training alone as he battles a knee injury. The Paris-Saint Germain star missed his last three matches for his professional club. Without Verratti, the Italian scoring burden will be further placed on Ciro Immobile at forward — but he has only 12 goals in 45 international competitions. Turkey can also play stout defense — they allowed only three goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches with eighth clean sheets. That was the fewest goals allowed in the entire qualifying stage. They did allow 19 goals in their next 11 matches across all competitions after completing the Euro qualification — but I suspect that was due to a change in tactics from their cagey manager Senol Gunes to see what he has with this group while putting them in different situations. Gunes was the skipper of the Turkish national team in 2002 when they finished in third place at the World Cup. He returns to coach the Crescent-Stars who have the youngest roster in this competition. But there is talent. Center back Caglar Soyuncu starts for Leicester City. Right back Zeki Celik started for Lille who won the Ligue 1 title. They have a good keep in Ugurcan Cakir. There are two other Lille players in the starting XI in Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici up top who will likely be instructed to be aggressive only on the counter-attack. Turkey’s top goal-scorer in the qualifying stage was Cenk Tosan — but the Everton forward not playing in this tournament due to a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: Turkey would love a draw in this contest — so their tactics should be defensive in nature. Frankly, Italy would not be too distressed with a draw either against this Crescent-Stars team that is dangerous out of this group. Winnable matches remain against Wales and Switzerland — and the top two teams from the Group advance. Two defensive teams in the opening match? I do not expect more than two combined goals to be scored. 10* Euro 2020 Italy-Turkey ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002). Best of luck for us — Frank.