Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 6/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Boston (27-35) has won four of their last six games after their 5-3 win in the opening game of this series. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. New York (37-26) has lost three of their last four games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Yankees have also played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports closed out May on a 5 of 7 (71%) run with Game of the Month/Year plays in All-Sports after CA$HING their 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with the Arsenal-PSG Under and their 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on San Antonio last Saturday! Frank is on a 12 of 20 (60%) MLB Game of the Month/Year run — and now he UNLEASHES his first highest-rated 25* play this month with his 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month for the Red Sox-Yankees showdown at 7:35 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT! 

At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921), listing both starting pitchers, Will Warren and Ranger Suarez. THE SITUATION: New York (37-26) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-3 loss at home to the Red Sox in the opening game of this series. Boston (27-35) has won four of their last six games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE:  The money-line has dropped to the Bronx Bombers priced only in the -115 range — perhaps this is a reaction to Aaron Judge being recently placed on the injured list with a right rib injury. Manager Aaron Boone’s lineup remains loaded — especially with Ben Rice’s fast start that has put him into the American League Most Valuable Player conversation. Playing mostly at first base right now, he is on pace to hit more than 40 home runs and drive in around 120 runs. The Yankees have won 9 of their last 13 home games after losing their last contest. They have also won 35 of their last 56 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. And in their last 114 games against teams with a losing record, New York has won 72 of those contests. Will Warren takes the hill looking to build on his 7-1 record, along with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 12 starts. He last pitched on Sunday when he hurled six scoreless innings on the road against the Athletics. In his last four starts, he boasts a 2.78 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his strong season. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.51 and 3.54 moving forward — and while those numbers would represent an increase in his ERA, those numbers would be more than fine. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast of 3.34 is even better, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, and sits at 4.31. He should continue to thrive against this Red Sox lineup that ranks 20th and 21st in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Yankees have won 6 of their 8 games at home with Warren on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Boston has lost 16 of their 26 games this season after winning their last game, including 4 of those last 5 games. They have lost 9 games in a row after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs. The Red Sox are also dealing with a host of injuries. Roman Anthony has been out for a month with a right finger injury, and shortstop Trevor Story has been on the shelf for most of the season. With southpaw Garrett Crochet also injured and manager Alex Cora already fired, this is a team close to becoming sellers at the trade deadline from a disappointing and lost season. Boston has lost 13 of their last 22 games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. They have lost 16 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also lost 10 of their last 16 games against fellow AL East rivals. Ranger Suarez gets the ball. The lefty has a 2-3 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts. He is in bad form right now with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP in his last two starts. Here comes this Yankees lineup that crushes left-handed pitching (even without Judge in the lineup). New York leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers this season — and they maintain those number one ranks in those categories since May 1st. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 20 games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. New York scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game — and Boston has lost 10 of their last 13 games against AL teams that score 4.9 or more Runs-Per-Game. This is the second time that Suarez is facing the Yankees this season — he was tagged for four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work on April 22nd.

FINAL TAKE: New York has won 7 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers, Will Warren and Ranger Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.