Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 9/27:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Baltimore Ravens minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys. Baltimore (1-1) looks to rebound from a 24-17 upset loss at home against the New Orleans Saints as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Marcana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams from the NFC. Dallas (1-1) won their first game of the season in a 37-20 victory at home against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Take Baltimore minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.  

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 26 of 35 (74%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued on Saturday — headlined by DELIVERING their 25* College Football Game of the Month on Florida to help fuel their 22 of 27 (81%) football run! Frank is on a 7 of 9 (78%) NFL run after CA$HING his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Atlanta to fuel his 19 of 26 (73%) NFL run! Now Frank furthers his 12 of 14 (86%) NFL sides streak and his 9 of 12 (75%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* NFL Game of the Month this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Denver Broncos (488). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-1) rebounded from their loss against San Francisco in Australia with a 28-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Denver (1-1) won their first game of the season in a 20-13 victory at home against Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The assumption is that the Rams are all better again after surviving the extremely inconvenient trip to Melbourne to start the season — and their defense certainly showed up last week. Buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald, who played on 53% of their defensive snaps to anchor the defensive line once again after a two-year retirement, Los Angeles held the Giants to just 182 yards of offense. The Rams have now played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Their offseason moves certainly indicate they are in a “win-now” mode. General manager Les Snead sacrificed draft capital and a good pass rusher in Jared Verse to make the big splash to acquire Myles Garrett, who is five years older than Verse. Snead also maneuvered via trade and free agency to acquire the outstanding Kansas City Chiefs’ cornerback duo, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. All these flashy moves were enough to convince defensive tackle Donald to come out of retirement for one more Super Bowl run. On paper, adding those pieces to an already talented unit that ranked 10th in the league by allowing 20.4 Points-Per-Game seems incredible. Of course, the moves make sense (and who would turn down given Donald another bite at the apple?). Los Angeles only managed one sack in their three playoff games. Adding Garrett and his NFL record-breaking 23 sacks and Donald’s dominant presence in the middle that seemingly demands double teams to a unit that already has Byron Young (12 sacks last season), Braden Fiske, and Kobie Turner seems mouth-watering — but Garrett remains out this week with an injury, which leaves their defense merely spectacular on paper rather than historic. On the other side of the ball, wide receiver Puka Nacua is doubtful to play as he recovers from his hip and groin injury. Tight end Colby Parkinson is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence could disrupt McVay’s ability to effectively deploy 13 three-tight end sets. The Rams have played 26 of their 42 games Under the Total against AFC opponents since McVay became their head coach, including 4 of those last 5 games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games Under the Total against AFC West teams with McVay. Denver rebounded from getting thoroughly outplayed by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week One with an impressive victory against a Jaguars team that had won nine games in a row in the regular season. They outgained Jacksonville by +124 net yards while holding them to just 268 yards of offense. The Denver defense is outstanding — and it is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). The Broncos surrendered just 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 18.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking second and third in the NFL. Their 68 sacks broke a franchise record, with defensive end Zach Allen finally being named an All-Pro. He leads the NFL in hits on the quarterback the last three seasons. Nine starters are back from that unit — and they may not have reached their ceiling yet since they only forced 14 turnovers last season, one shy of being the fewest in franchise history. They should definitely get more takeaways this year. The offense may need these extra possessions since they are generating only 15.0 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. They have also played 21 of their 31 games Under the Total with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Payton as their head coach, including 11 of those 15 games played at home.  

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 21 of their last 18 games in prime-time Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total in prime-time — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total for Sunday Night Football. Lastly, since McVay took over the Rams, these two teams have played 3 of their 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Denver Broncos (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (487). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-1) won their first game of the season in a 20-13 victory at home against Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (1-1) rebounded from their loss against San Francisco in Australia with a 28-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver rebounded from getting thoroughly outplayed by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week One with an impressive victory against a Jaguars team that had won nine games in a row in the regular season. They outgained Jacksonville by +124 net yards while holding them to just 268 yards of offense. Quarterback Bo Nix bounced back from a subpar effort by completing 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards. The Broncos were also down to rookie running back Jonah Coleman in that game after both J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey succumbed to injuries — but both have been upgraded to probable for this game. Denver has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win at home. Frankly, I was unsure what to make of the Broncos after my deep dive into this team last year. I was impressed with the continued improvement of this team under head coach Sean Payton — he deserved credit for leading this team back to the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl-winning 2015-16 season. His team did this despite posting a Broncos’ 1-6 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — and I indicated that “would be something I would expect to even out over time by the Regression Gods.” Well, those Regression Gods moved fast as Denver went 12-3 in games decided by one-scoring possession last season — if not for the ankle injury to quarterback Bo Nix in their overtime victory against Buffalo, they may not have lost at home against New England by a 10-7 score in the AFC Championship Game with backup Jarrett Stidham under center. Entering the fourth season under Payton, there are a few things that we know. The Denver defense is outstanding — and it is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). The Broncos surrendered just 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 18.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking second and third in the NFL. Their 68 sacks broke a franchise record, with defensive end Zach Allen finally being named an All-Pro. He leads the NFL in hits on the quarterback the last three seasons. Nine starters are back from that unit — and they may not have reached their ceiling yet since they only forced 14 turnovers last season, one shy of being the fewest in franchise history. They should definitely get more takeaways this year. Furthermore, the offensive line may very well be the best in the NFL — and that will certainly help slow down Aaron Donald, who seems to have found the Fountain of Youth after playing in 53% of the Rams’ defensive snaps last week. Payton immediately fixed this problem when taking this job — and all five starters are back for the third straight season. With their three best backups on the offensive line also back for a third straight season, the chemistry and continuity of this group are excellent. Perhaps it is the state of the defense and the offensive line that compelled Payton to make very few changes to the roster for this season. Frankly, I don’t think I have ever seen fewer additions to a roster from year to year. The Broncos almost completely avoided the free agent tax that good teams endure in the offseason. Considering that deadweight Russell Wilson contract is finally off the books, the lack of activity is a testament to what a great job Payton and general manager George Paton have done in their rebuild. The big splash Payton made was acquiring wide receiver Jaylen Waddle from Miami for a first- and third-round draft pick. The expectation is that his speed and ability to catch balls in the middle of the field will open up the passing game. Besides that, Denver signed only two free agents to offer depth on defense. They drafted another seven rookies in the April draft, although three of them were picks in the seventh round. There is still room for growth as several of the high-round draft picks from last season have yet to seize the starting job. It’s a great situation, on paper, yet this team will still only go as far as Nix can take them — and that remains a significant question. Just how high is the ceiling for him? There are reasons for optimism. In my deep dive last year, I concluded: “Denver scored only 14.3 PPG against these above-average defenses with a negative DVOA (the efficiency metric used by the Football Outsiders) number. Against below-average defenses with a positive DVOA, the Broncos scored 29.5 PPG. That is a major red flag suggesting that this was an offense that thrived against bad defenses and that Nix’s best moments were during positive game scripts when Payton could dial up pass plays when the defense had to respect the Denver rushing attack.” That issue was definitely addressed last season as Nix was often at his best in clutch situations. He orchestrated seven successful winning drives last year. He has led the team to 24 regular season victories in the last two seasons. One big change on offense is that Payton is handing off most of the play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. In theory, it’s a risky move since Webb lacks play-calling experience in the NFL. On the other hand, Webb has been the quarterback’s coach for Payton since Year One in Denver and was highly coveted around the league — so the promotion and added responsibilities were necessary to keep him around. I love the move. I think almost every one of these “offensive” head coaches who continue to call plays is doing their team a disservice. Payton made two significant game management mistakes in the AFC Championship. Being a head coach is a full-time job — so Payton taking some things off his plate while trusting his deputies is smart. And I just don’t think it will impact anything if the “offensive genius” has to have his fingerprints on every single action of the offense. I’m confident that when it is third-and-five in a two-minute drill in the fourth quarter for a “gotta have it” play, that Payton may exert his executive authority to call the play. And I’m quite sure that Payton will remain heavily involved in designing the offensive game plan and call sheet for each game. Letting Webb handle second-and-six will not cause the planet to stop spinning on its axis. The change may help Nix. One of the reasons for the change was that Payton admitted that he was taking too long to get the play into Nix. Webb’s directive is to get the play into Nix faster. Perhaps the reason why Nix performed better in clutch situations last season was that Payton did not have the time to recite the playbook bible as if he was still communicating with Drew Brees in the final seasons of his Hall of Fame career. Webb was a journeyman backup quarterback in the league after a solid collegiate career. He may better identify with what Nix needs at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, this is a mature move — I really like it. Every year, I think the Broncos are getting better under Payton — but that does not guarantee continued improving results. Only the 2022 Minnesota Vikings and the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs had 11 victories by one-scoring possession like Denver did last year. But they thrive in situations like this. Since Payton took over, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 16 of their 25 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread by an average of +5.3 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their 19 games at home with Nix starting at quarterback — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range —  and the underdog in the last 7 games between these teams has covered the point spread. The assumption is that the Rams are all better again after surviving the extremely inconvenient trip to Melbourne to start the season — but that was against a Giants team with a questionable roster that had to use Jameis Winston under center after the injury to Jaxson Dart. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win. The Rams' offseason moves certainly indicate they are in a “win-now” mode — well, most of their moves, at least (I will get into the decision to draft a project quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft shortly). General manager Les Snead sacrificed draft capital and a good pass rusher in Jared Verse to make the big splash to acquire Myles Garrett, who is five years older than Verse. Snead also maneuvered via trade and free agency to acquire the outstanding Kansas City Chiefs’ cornerback duo, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. All these flashy moves were enough to convince defensive tackle Donald to come out of retirement for one more Super Bowl run. On paper, adding those pieces to an already talented unit that ranked 10th in the league by allowing 20.4 Points-Per-Game seems incredible. But let’s remember that, in practice, these super teams don’t always work out as planned. Of course, the moves make sense (and who would turn down given Donald another bite at the apple?). Los Angeles only managed one sack in their three playoff games. Adding Garrett and his NFL record-breaking 23 sacks and Donald’s dominant presence in the middle that seemingly demands double teams to a unit that already has Byron Young (12 sacks last season), Braden Fiske, and Kobie Turner seems mouth-watering — but Garrett remains out this week with an injury. The biggest weakness that Los Angeles suffered last season was with their special teams — this deficiency versus Seattle’s outstanding special unit probably cost them the Super Bowl. Special teams play is pretty fluid from year to year — but simply banking on regression to the mean is not a great plan. We’ll see. On the other side of the ball, wide receiver Puka Nacua is doubtful to play as he recovers from his hip and groin injury. Tight end Colby Parkinson is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence could disrupt McVay’s ability to effective deploy 13 three-tight end sets. And this brings us to the selection of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. We understand Snead and McVay’s logic: Matthew Stafford is in the twilight of his career — but we can balance winning now with laying the foundation for our future! This is reminiscent of the Atlanta Falcons logic of spending $100 million of guaranteed money on Kirk Cousins while also drafting Michael Penix in the first round. As the Falcons’ experience demonstrated, the fundamental flaw in this logic is that you cannot play both valuable resources at the same time. So while Snead/McVay can rationalize this by claiming “losing draft capital in the Garrett trade made using the first round pick now on the franchise QB smart.” Yeah … except for the fact that the first-round pick could have been used on another offensive lineman (there is never enough) or another shiny tight end (imagine Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq with his 6’3 frame and 4.39/40 speed look in McVay’s offense)? If the goal is to win a Super Bowl now, then go all-in! But, see, Snead and McVay are smarter than the rest of us. They are going to win a Super Bowl now and develop their next Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Never mind who is going to be on this roster to support Simpson for that 2028-29 Super Bowl run. And never mind Simpson’s erratic play in big games at Alabama. Those are just problems waiting to be solved by the two smartest guys in the room. If the Los Angeles Rams go on to win the Super Bowl, I’m not going to be surprised. They were clearly the second-best team in the league last year; they improved significantly, and they might have been the 21st-best NFL team in the last three decades! But if they fail to achieve this objective, I suspect it will be for these reasons. And let’s remember that Stafford is now 38 years old. He won the MVP last year — but his decline in the postseason. Granted, playing in the cold weather in Chicago did not help his stat line, nor did playing the Seahawks defense. But if Stafford begins to decline, does this house of cards collapse on itself — especially given the sky-high expectations that come with adding Garrett and Donald? As it is, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road in the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Rams were a preseason 10-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl — and Payton’s teams as a head coach have covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games against NFL teams that had preseason odds of 10-1 or lower to win the Super Bowl. Los Angeles’ win total for the season was set at 11.5 — and Denver has won and covered the point spread in all four games against teams with season win over/under numbers at 10 or higher with Nix under center. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (480) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (479). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 23-19 upset loss at home against Cleveland as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 9-3 upset win on the road in Chicago against the Bears as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Who wants to invest in Tampa Bay that has now tied the 1983-84 Houston Oilers with 11 straight games without covering the point spread in the Super Bowl era? Baker Mayfield has tied Brandon Weeden with 11 straight starts without leading his team to point spread victory, the longest mark in the Super Bowl era. Head coach Todd Bowles now holds the record for NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era with his 0-11 ATS run. No, I am not committing the Gambler’s Fallacy by thinking the Buccaneers are now “due” for a point spread win (but they are due — and I still like this team despite this torturous run they are on). First and foremost, I have been waiting for this opportunity to bet against this Vikings team. I have spent the entire summer trying to figure this team out — and I think I am close. J.J. McCarthy has become the scapegoat for high gas prices, each and every AI agent hack, and everything wrong with the Minnesota Vikings in the last three seasons. I’m still not sure how much of this is his fault. Unquestionably, he did not play well last year — and, inside the building, he may simply be a flake who does not command respect. But it is my deep contention that something is deeper and more foul within this organization that goes far beyond McCarthy. In their opening game at home against Green Bay — another franchise that seems to have developed something rotten at its core (and that take sure seemed on the money on Thursday against Atlanta) — the Vikings found themselves trailing by a 22-10 score late in the third quarter. But then the Packers seemed to make a death pact with the officials in that game, with both conspiring to give the game to Minnesota. Green Bay made a few tragic errors, and the refs made some timely “questionable” decisions to help the Vikings score 29 unanswered points in a 39-22 victory. Please note that Minnesota only generated 239 yards of offense, and they got outgained by a whopping -180 net yards. Then last week, the team was gifted a Caleb Williams injury en route to their upset victory, where they scored only nine points and gained only 246 yards of offense. They got outgained by -51 net yards but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Veteran quarterback Carson Wentz has been lauded for his steady play in the last two games after coming on in relief early in the opening week when Kyler Murray (inevitably) got injured. There is a notion going around that he is playing himself back into a starting quarterback in this league, either with the Vikings or another squad. What world are these people living in? Wentz has thrown for only 276 total passing yards in seven quarters and completed just 59% of his passes. Murray cleared the concussion protocol and will take his starting position again this afternoon. In his limited time against the Packers, he did not look good — he completed 3 of 5 passes but for only 18 yards with one interception. Yes, Minnesota has now won seven games in a row going back to last season (and, apparently, the narrative is that they won five of those games to end last season despite J.J. McCarthy being under center — but now that he has been exiled, the offense is fixed!). The Vikings are the poor man’s Jacksonville Jaguars, except without the playoff appearance last year! Got it. As I wrote on my deep dive of this team earlier this summer, to project Minnesota for the 2026-27 season, we need to assess what happened last year. I think the fundamental problem for the Vikings last season was that injuries on the offensive line exposed a terrible lack of depth at the position — and not even Patrick Mahomes could have operated effectively under those conditions (and certainly not Sam Darnold, OMG). Free agent center Ryan Kelly missed most of the season to injury. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw struggled in his return from a torn ACL in October of 2024. He missed seven games and removed himself from five of the ten games he did play. Right tackle Brian O’Neill missed three games. When the offensive line was at its most depleted, it was McCarthy under center (when Carson Wentz played, the offensive line was in better shape — a nuance the national media failed to appreciate when making comparisons of his play to McCarthy). They had to deploy 26 different combinations on the offensive line last season — and that unit ranked second in the NFL by surrendering 60 sacks. Inevitably, McCarthy gets injured. O’Connell did not adapt his play-calling to these realities until the end of the season, when the Vikings did win their final five games. All the pass targets were running deep routes, as if the offensive line was fine. He infrequently dialed anything easy to help McCarthy get the ball out of his hands quickly. He rarely manufactured ways to get the ball into the hands of Justin Jefferson. The offense would frustratingly stall out quickly — but O’Connell was not doing anything to help establish a rhythm and some confidence from that unit.I’m not a big Murray fan — but he signed for the league minimum $1.3 million for one year. That’s perfect — and maybe O’Connell can resurrect his career! Competition at quarterback made a lot of sense. But this notion that Murray immediately solves the quarterback problem baffles me. Arizona is paying $34 million this year to not have Murray on their team. He is primarily a shotgun quarterback, and O’Connell wants his quarterback under center to better operate the play-action game (it’s why he drafted McCarthy). That all said, I have other concerns with this team for this season. While the offensive line is healthy, there are issues. Can Darrisaw return to his pre-ACL injury form? Right guard Will Fries underperformed last season as a free agent from Indianapolis. Starting center Blake Brandell looks like a weak link after getting nine starts out of necessity last season after being a journeyman backup guard. If the line remains as porous, then it is going to be a long season for whoever is under center. So far through two games, these concerns have been validated. Wentz has been sacked six times already despite only 45 dropbacks. A sack rate once every 7.5 dropbacks is horrendous. Minnesota is also generating only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry from 62 rushing attempts, tied for 24th in the NFL. What if this offensive line is terrible — and that is the fundamental problem for this team? The Vikings are only averaging 242.5 total YPG this season. Perhaps J.J. McCarthy is not the problem, after all. Just sayin’. On the other side of the ball, Brian Flores' defense was great last season. That unit ranked third in the league by giving up only 282.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But linebacker Jonathan Greenard was traded to Philadelphia, and defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrove were released in the offseason. That leaves Flores without four veteran starters from last season’s group. Perhaps the real reason why general manager Kwesi Adafo-Mensah was fired is that only four of his draft picks in his four seasons are projected to be starters this season (and that does not assume McCarthy). It is going to be very hard for Flores to use his blitzing magic to keep his defense playing at the high level they have enjoyed the last few seasons. Admittedly, the defense has looked great in their first two games, and the rookies drafted to fill those roster holes have played well. But they played a dysfunctional Packers team and then the Bears when Williams got injured. How realistic is it that this roster is close to making a deep playoff run? Two years ago, they went 14-3 in the regular season despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.5 net Yards-Per-Game. They took advantage of a soft schedule that featured the AFC South and the New York Jets — and they swept those five games. Despite all the problems on offense last year, they were always going to be closer to the 9-8 team that they were than a group posting another 14-3 record. Perhaps it was this conceit that contributed to O'Connell failing to make the needed adjustments on offense sooner? In my deep dive on this team last year when marveling at his 25-9 record as a head coach in games decided by one-scoring possession, I raved: "O’Connell won the NFL Coach of the Year award last year — and I still think he is underrated." Well, let's just say he needs a bounce-back season, too. They fell to 9-8 last season while getting outgained by -7.6 YPG. They are getting outgained by -115.5 net YPG this season. This may simply be who they are given their roster. This game presents a great opportunity to fade them. Tampa Bay has two losses by a combined 10 points so far this season. Their opening week loss at Cincinnati does not look too bad since it appears the Bengals have improved their defense. They outgained the Browns last week by +46 net yards but gave that game away — so here they are in a must-win situation. In my deep dive on this team last season, I concluded that they were a legitimate sleeper to make a run to the Super Bowl. After their 6-2 start with quarterback Baker Mayfield an early MVP candidate, I thought my evaluation was being validated. But then the Buccaneers lost seven of their final nine games and missed the playoffs altogether with an 8-9 record. What happened? In hindsight, I think it was a death by a thousand cuts. For starters, they were ravaged by injuries. Linebacker Lavonte David later conceded that Mayfield was playing with an oblique injury, a shoulder injury, an ankle injury, and a knee injury while describing them all as “injuries you didn’t expect a quarterback to play through.” I was very bullish on their offensive line — but injuries disrupted their continuity from 2024-25, with the starting five combining to miss 32 games to injury. Running back Bucky Irving missed seven games to injury and was not back to full health when he returned to the field. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed eight and nine games, respectively. On defense, defensive tackle Caljah Kancey only played three games before a season-ending torn pec injury. Rookie cornerback Benjamin Morrison missed seven games due to an injury. To compound the injuries, their attempt to jumpstart their pass rush by signing Hassan Reddick in free agency failed, as he was mostly missing in action. This was all too much to overcome by the end of the regular season. However, it would be a misjudgment to simply conclude that the attrition was the only fundamental problem. The toll finally came due on the annual revolving door at offensive coordinator. The promotion of passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard did not work. He had never called plays before, was too predictable, and struggled to draw things up on third down. Grizzard has been replaced by Zac Robinson, who was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons the last two seasons. He becomes Mayfield’s ninth offensive coordinator in nine seasons, but at least he endorsed the choice. Mayfield, Irving, and the offensive line are all back and healthy again. Evans signed as a free agent with San Francisco — but second-year wide receiver Emeka Agbuka looks ready to become the number one target in the passing attack and Chris Godwin has looked good so far afer an injury-riddled season last year. The defense moves on from David, who retired after 15 seasons — and cornerback Jamel Dean was lost in free agency. But Detroit linebacker Alex Anzalone was signed in free agency to replace David, and the hope is that Morrison is ready to replace Dean as the second starting cornerback. General manager Jason Licht addressed the perpetual pass rush concerns by adding two intriguing players (although first-round draft pick Rueben Bain is injured and out for this game). Linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad was signed in free agency from the Lions after registering 11 sacks and 20 quarterback hits despite playing only part-time. It's still possible that my bullish sentiments about the core of this squad were off by one year — and this is the season they make a deep playoff run in an NFC that I consider still in transition. If my conviction is correct, they sure as heck need to win this game. I’m investing heavily.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends certainly do not back the Buccaneers on their 0-11 ATS run, but there are great empirical situational angles supporting them. In Week Three of the NFL season, winless 0-2 teams playing a team with at least one victory are 42-22-1 ATS. 25* National Football League Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (480) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.