Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 11/28:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with Over the Total in the game between Boise State and Utah State. Boise State (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-21 win against Colorado State as an 18-point favorite last Saturday. The Broncos go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. They have also played 18 of their last 30 games Over the Total when favored. Utah State (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 28-17 upset win at Fresno State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. The Aggies have played 4 straight Overs after winning on the road in their previous game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 19 of 26 (73%) College Football run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING his 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year last Saturday with Oregon’s point spread cover victory against USC! Frank is on a 32 of 47 (68%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season — and now he furthers his 14 of 19 (74%) CFB Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* College Football Underdog of the Month for Friday afternoon! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Georgia (10-1) has won seven games in a row after their 35-3 victory at home against Charlotte as a 42.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was trailing the Panthers by a 28-14 score, but was driving to score a touchdown to make it a one-possession game in the third quarter. But senior quarterback Haynes King made a costly mistake by throwing an interception at the goal line that was returned for a touchdown and represented a 14-point swing in the game. After starting the season with eight straight victories, losses at NC State and then last week to Pittsburgh mean that the Yellow Jackets need some help to reach the ACC championship game. But pulling off an upset against the Bulldogs would certainly help a lot in making the case that Georgia Tech should make the college football playoff. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing 37 or more points. And while Georgia Tech suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Panthers, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. King makes the Yellow Jackets dangerous in this game — he is completing 71.8% of his passes and leads an offense that ranks in the top 15 in the FBS in both Expected Points Added per Dropback and Pass Success rate. This is not the Georgia defense we are used to seeing. While they are very good at stopping the run, they rank just 78th in Opponent EPA per Dropback. Their secondary is mediocre, ranking just 56th in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage grading scale. But the biggest problem is their pass rush, which PFF grades out as the 120th worst in the nation. When King has operated in a clean pocket this season, he has passed for almost 2000 yards with a 9.2 Yards-Per-Attempt average — and he has 11 Big Time Throws and zero Turnover Worthy Plays when not facing pressure. The Georgia Tech defense is not great and the Bulldogs do generate 431.0 Yards-Per-Game — but the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 9 straight games against teams who average 425 or more YPG. Georgia is in a strange spot right now. They need either Texas A&M or Alabama to lose to then earn the right to play in the SEC championship game. They are in a good position to earn one of the top four seeds in the college football playoffs and a bye in the first round. But if the Bulldogs get upset this afternoon and then lose in the SEC championship game, are we sure they still make the playoffs? This game can only hurt their cause. As it is, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in the last three meetings between these two teams — and the last two games have been decided by eight points or less. King almost led Georgia Tech to an upset victory last year as a 17.5-point underdog before Georgia survived in double-overtime by a 44-42 score. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning 75% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (330) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (314) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (313). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (8-3) has won four games in a row after their 31-28 win against Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Bears beat the Steelers despite getting outgained by -17 net yards. It was also Mason Rudolph under center for Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers out with an injury for that game. Chicago has won eight of their last nine games — but they are just getting by a slew of teams that are not very good. Those eight victories were against: a now 6-5-1 Dallas team before they improved their defense at the trade deadline; the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders; the 3-8 Washington Commanders; the 2-9 New Orleans Saints; the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals when quarterback Joe Burrow was still out; the 2-10 New York Giants; the 4-7 Minnesota Vikings; the 6-5 Steelers without Rodgers. According to the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at DVOA), this is the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL, at least as far back as their statistics go. Despite the soft schedule, they are still getting outscored by -0.2 net Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by just +7.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They have a 6-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — and all four of their games during their recent winning streak were decided by five points or less and just 14 total points. Their +16 net turnover margin is helping them pull out these close games — but turnover margin is a fickle dance partner. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Bears reached 31 points last week despite only gaining 328 total yards. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG and outgained by -8.8 net YPG. Chicago remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. They are also 12-24-1 ATS in their last 37 games played on an early week before a Sunday. Philadelphia has their issues — and the 63 rushing yards they gained last week from 18 carries were the fewest in they have gained under head coach Nick Sirianni in the 82 games they have played with him leading the charge when they ran the ball at least 18 times. But what this team is not going to do with Jalen Hurts under center is give the ball away to the Bears. The Eagles did turn the ball over twice last week en route to blowing their 21-0 lead against the Cowboys — but they have only turned the ball over four other times all season. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 straight games after playing a fellow NFC East rival. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games since Sirianni took over as their head coach. Their defense is only giving up 15.0 PPG in their last four games, with that side of the ball even better after acquiring linebacker Jaelan Phillips from Miami and cornerback Michael Carter from the New York Jets — and that side of the ball is healthy again after dealing with some injuries. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 17 of their 21 home games under Sirianni when favored by up to seven points— and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home when favored by single digits with Sirianni. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in November. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games against fellow NFC rivals, including eight of those 12 games played at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, including five of those six games when playing at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games, including four of those five games played at home. Remember, Philadelphia just beat the Detroit team two weeks ago that handed the Bears a 31-point loss earlier in the season. Yes, I think Caleb Williams and this Chicago team are better now than they were in September — but the Super Bowl champs are a battle-tested group, and Chicago has been the benefactor of an easy schedule where they have skated by. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (314) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.