Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 6/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday night is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the San Francisco Giants listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Landen Roupp. Los Angeles (41-28) has lost two of their last three games after their 6-2 upset loss at home against the Giants in the opening game of this series. The Dodgers have won 61 of their last 97 after a loss going to the beginning of last season. They have also won 28 of their last 43 opportunities to avenge an upset loss at home. San Francisco (40-29) was a +175 money-line underdog last night — but they have lost 3 of their 4 games under manager Bob Melvin following up an upset victory priced at +130 or higher against a fellow NL West rival. The Giants have also lost 36 of their last 63 games after winning their last game on the road. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 5 of 6 (83%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Game of the Year on Oklahoma City last night to continue their 40 of 61 (66%) All-Sports featured plays run! Now Frank furthers his 15 of 24 (63%) Game of the Month/Year month in All-Sports with a 25* MLB Divisional Total of the Month for Saturday! DON’T MISS OUT!

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 6/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. Florida (61-36-6) had won the last two games in this series before their 5-4 loss at home in overtime to the Oilers on Thursday. The Panthers have played 9 of their last 12 games in the Stanley Cup Finals Over the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Edmonton (62-34-6) has played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after winning on the road in their last game. The Oilers have also played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 5 of 6 (83%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Game of the Year on Oklahoma City last night! Frank is on a 9 of 10 (90%) NHL featured plays run after CA$HING his 25* NHL Total of the Year with the Florida-Edmonton Over in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals last Friday — and now he furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) NHL Game of the Year run with his 25* NHL Game of the Year with tonight’s Florida-Edmonton money-line side winner on TNT at 8:10 PM ET!

Frank is on a 40 of 61 (66%) All-Sports featured plays run -- and he furthers his 15 of 24 (63%) Game of the Month/Year month in All-Sports with a 25* MLB Divisional Total of the Month for Saturday! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (40-29) has won eight of their last nine games after their 6-2 victory in the opening game of this series on Friday. Los Angeles (41-28) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have now scored 29 combined runs in their last four games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have played 45 of their last 63 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog including 12 of those 16 games this season. Additionally, they have played 28 of their last 34 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range including nine of those 10 games this season. They have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They have also played 22 of their last 30 road games Over the Total against fellow NL West opponents including all four of these games this season. Roupp gets the ball looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.79 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.50 — so the likely only question is exactly how much he is overachieving right now. He has a great curveball — but his arsenal lacks a complementary pitch and relying on the curve can be hit-or-miss. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts — but in his eight starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.02 ERA along with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258. He faces this Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers this season — and they continue to lead MLB in those categories since May 1st. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 22 of their last 34 games at home Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 18 of their last 27 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total at home when priced in the -151 to -200 range including six of those eight games this season. They counter with Kershaw who has a 1-0 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in five starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not paint an optimistic picture with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 4.44 moving forward. His xERA also sits at 4.67 based on his 2025 numbers. In his two starts at home this season, he has been rocked for an 8.31 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 as compared to his 1.50 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when the southpaw gad a 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and a .262 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road but a 5.27 ERA along with a 1.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .345 in three starts at home.

FINAL TAKE: Kershaw faces a Giants team that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (19) versus the Edmonton Oilers (20) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (61-36-6)  had won two games in a row in this series before their 5-4 loss in overtime in Game Four of this best-of-seven series on Thursday. Edmonton (62-34-6) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Florida was in complete control of Game Four after taking a 3-0 lead after the first period. They took their foot off the gas in the second period and got too comfortable dumping and chasing the puck — and those tactics helped the Oilers get back in the game. Losing their second game in this series in overtime should anger the reigning Stanley Cup champions. The Panthers have won 26 of their last 41 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on their home ice. Additionally, they have won 6 of their last 7 games in this postseason after losing their previous playoff game with four of those five victories coming on the road. They have also won 13 of their last 20 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Florida goes back on the road where they have been road warriors this postseason with a 9-3 record along with a +27 goal differential. They are scoring 4.7 Goals-Per-Game in these 12 road playoff games while surrendering just 2.3 Goals-Per-Game. Veteran NHL teams often like playing away from home for big games because the off-the-ice distractions are less. And while the home team gets the final line change, the impact of a loud crowd in NHL games tends to be exaggerated since the players on the ice do not often hear it — and the action is so fast that crowd noise is not likely to rattle the players. The Panthers have won 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have also won 19 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky let in five goals in Game Four — but he still registered a +0.47 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) mark. He leads all goaltenders in the playoffs with +11.2 GSAx — and he ranks third amongst all goaltenders with at least ten appearances in these playoffs with a +0.508 GSAx clip per 60 minutes. In his last seven playoff games on the road this postseason, “Playoff Bob” has given up only 15 goals and has a .931 save percentage. Florida has won 5 of their last 7 Game Fives in a playoff series including all four of those games played on the road. They have also won 5 straight playoff games on the road when the playoff series is tied. Edmonton head coach Kris Knoblauch is likely to turn to Calvin Pickard as his starting goaltender tonight after he stopped 22 of 23 shots in relief of Stuart Skinner in Game Four. His 7-0 record in this postseason will probably be irresistible — and the only reason why Stuart Skinner got the opportunity to prove himself after getting benched in the opening round against Los Angeles was that Pickard got injured in the section round against Vegas. But Pickard is a career backup — and he has a mediocre 2.69 Goals-Against-Average and a .896 save percentage in these playoffs. He has a -0.1 GSAx mark in his seven playoff games this year which is below Skinner’s +0.1 GSAx clip. Frankly, both these goalies for Edmonton are mediocre. Pickard ranks 15th of the 27 goalies that have been on the ice in the postseason this year with a -0.013 GSAx mark per 60 minutes — and he ranks 13th of 22 playoff goalies who have played at least three games. He has some weaknesses that the Panthers can exploit. Because he is three inches shorter than Skinner at 6’1, he takes a high stance to see the ice which can leave him to quick shots down low. He also tends to drift around the net as he drops behind traffic around. Perhaps the biggest difference between Skinner and him is that he can struggle with his puck handling — and it was off a mistake that allowed Florida to score the game-tying goal with 20 seconds left in the third period to force overtime. Skinner is much more adept at managing and clearing the puck. Pickard had a -9.1 GSAx mark in the regular season. And he was less effective at home in the regular season with a 2.94 GAA and a .884 save percentage in 15 starts as opposed to his 2.54 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 18 starts on the road. The season-ending injury to defenseman Zach Hyman last round makes the reliance on Pickard even more precarious. Florida is outshooting their opponents by +4.5 shots-per-game this season — and the Oilers have lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams who are outshooting their opponents by +3.0 or more shots-per-game. Edmonton has lost 2 of their last 5 games at home in these playoffs. They have lost 8 of their last 14 playoff games when the series was tied including three of those five losses being on their home ice.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have won 24 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge — and they have won 18 of their last 29 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NHL Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (19) versus the Edmonton Oilers (20). Best of luck for us — Frank.