At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (278). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (1-0) began their season with a 23-20 victory at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 14-9 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum from earning a win against a fellow NFC South rival. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. This team is a bit underrated despite having made the playoffs in five straight seasons — including winning the Super Bowl in 2021 — and they have won the NFC South title for four straight seasons. While it may look like they get stuck in neutral once they are in the playoffs, remember that this team beat Philadelphia, Detroit, and Washington in the regular season last year — and they only lost to the Commanders by a field goal in a game they kind of gave away late. Probably no NFL team has more continuity from last season, either. Tampa Bay has all 11 starters back on offense and nine starters back on defense. The only coaching change was the elevation of pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator after Liam Coen took the head coaching job for Jacksonville. New offensive coordinators have become the norm for Baker Mayfield, who has had a new offensive coordinator in eight straight seasons. Mayfield needs to cut down on his 16 interceptions last year (none last week) — but, otherwise, he comes off an outstanding season where he threw for 4500 yards while completing 71.4% of his passes and tossing 41 touchdown passes. After his three-touchdown performance against the Falcons, he has 19 touchdown passes in his last six games. The offensive unit is loaded with playmakers at running back and wide receiver. Bucky Irving enjoyed a breakout rookie season in the backfield and eventually seized playing time away from Rachaad White, who remains a solid option. Veteran wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed time last year but re-signed with the team to join intriguing young wideouts Jalen McMillan and rookie Emeka Egbuka. The Bucs generated 399.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 29.5 Points-Per-Game, ranking third and fourth in the NFL. The defense needs to generate more pressure from the edges — and that is why general manager Jason Licht signed linebacker Hassan Reddick in the hope that he will rediscover his passion for football after a lost season with the New York Jets last year. Reddick registered his first sack for his new team last week. Former All-Pro Antoine Winfield endured an injury-riddled season — but if he can regain his 2023 form, this unit should be improved. It is telling that a vast majority of the veterans opted to re-sign with this squad in the offseason. While some key members remain from the 2021 Super Bowl team, they had the fourth-youngest roster in the league last year, as Licht has been rebuilding this team on the fly. With plenty of playoff experience, Tampa Bay may be under the radar in many circles — but not in their minds. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC, including four of those five games played on the road. Houston only managed 265 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Rams. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing a team from the NFC in their last game. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in September. I have two concerns about the Texans: their offensive line and their drafting philosophy. Both of these critiques have a common denominator in general manager Nick Caserio, whom I have always been neutral on before my discoveries in my deep dive on a quiet (but hot) summer night in Las Vegas at the end of July. The first red flag for the Texans is the offensive line, the unit where Caserio invested $52.3 million last season, the sixth most in the NFL. That group had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 9.1% of their dropback passes, as compared to their 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate in 2023-24. Quarterback C.J. Stroud enjoyed a clean pocket in only 59% of his dropbacks, ranking second-to-last (just above Deshaun Watson) for qualifying quarterbacks. Granted, three starters are gone from that group, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom Caserio traded to Washington. He struggled with run blocking. There were red flags on left guard Kenyon Green. Paying Shaq Mason may not be prudent. But who are the replacements? Cam Robinson was signed from Minnesota at left tackle. Jacksonville benched him midseason, before trading him to the Vikings. He leads a pack of free agent signees that are classic retreads, with the only variation being either (a) wait until you see them return to form recovering from injury, or (b) maybe a new environment can get the remaining fuel out of his tank. These are low-end band aids solutions to what was a bad offensive line last year. Caserio did draft left tackle Airenotae Ersery in the second round of the draft, so perhaps he ends up in the mix, which segues into my draft rant. When I watch the NFL draft in April, most of my attention is on the start of the NBA and NHL playoffs. It takes the July deep dive for me to really contemplate the implications of those draft-day moves. I was struck that Caserio felt it desirable to take both wide receivers from Iowa State in the first three rounds. Quite an endorsement for a Cyclones offense that scored just 19 points in their 25-point loss to Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. But, OK, a team’s draft board is their draft board — so if Jaylin Noel is available in the third round after nabbing Jayden Higgs in the second round, you do it. But then, Caserio drafted two USC players in a row? And all of his nine draft picks came from Power Four conference schools. That rang some bells, reminding me of Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke, who picked 12 of 13 players from Power Five conference teams in the 2024 draft. In 2024, Caserio also went nine for nine in selecting Power Four conference teams, including another two from that powerhouse USC program (both on defense, mind you, but at least one of the two 2025 picks from USC was an offensive player). In 2023, Caserio only drafted eight of his nine players from Power Five conferences because Notre Dame is an independent. He nabbed two from Alabama in that draft. In 2022, Caserio drafted all nine of his players from Power Five conferences, including two from Alabama and two from LSU. With bated breath, I went to his first year as the Texans’ GM after serving as the Personnel Director for Bill Belichick for 13 seasons. With only five picks in the draft (after, admittedly, trading fourth and fifth round picks for the third round pick on wide receiver Nico Collins, although the advice of passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton, who coached Collins at Michigan), Caserio chose five players from Power Five conference programs. To summarize, Caserio has made 41 draft picks — and 40 of those 41 selections were from Power Four or Five conferences, with the lone exception being a player from Notre Dame (who do not play in a conference as an independent). Simply spectacular. Granted, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Four/Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that, too? It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chances on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. And then to compound matters, Caserio made this statement when responding to criticism that he did not do enough to fortify the offensive line in last April’s draft: “The whole perception, well, you need this position, you need that position, I mean, that’s made up, we don’t approach it that way. … This whole concept of drafting for need, honest to God, I don’t even know what it means.” Honestly, FFS. It means when your quarterback got sacked 52 times last year and took a step back in his sophomore season, you try to fix that problem — and then you use the nonsense cliches to justify your decisions (see Bull Durham). Even Baalke would watch enough Thursday Night Football on ESPN to find the occasional left tackle from Appalachian State. Even the reigning king of TV scouting, former Las Vegas Raiders GM and Jon Gruden yes-man Mike Mayock, flexed his Saturday scouting regimen by watching SportsCenter at night to discover some hotshot from a Group of Five school to pick after reaching for Clemson talent in the first round. But we have a new undisputed champion! To not ever find the moment to draft an underrated Group of Five or, dare I say it, an FCS player, even once out of 41 draft picks in five seasons, is an incredible commitment to the scouting primarily from the traditional networks on Saturdays during the football season regimen. Even a monkey randomly jabbing at the keyboard would take a stab at a North Dakota State player, and that 100th monkey might even uncover Jerry Rice. But San Francisco was drafting for need that year, those idiots. OK, rant done. Caserio’s AFC South champion team scored and allowed 21.9 Points-Per-Game last year despite their 10-7 regular season record. They only outgained their opponents by +4.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They were 7-5 in games decided by one scoring possession. They overachieved their PPG and YPG numbers with a +10 net turnover margin.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
