Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (633) and the Duke Blue Devils (634) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (32-5) advances to the Elite Eight with their 67-63 victory against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. Duke (35-2) has won 14 games in a row after their 80-75 victory against St. John’s as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies beat the Spartans by nailing 42.9% of their shots from behind the arc, which was the best long-distance shooting effort in their last seven games. It was an outlier shooting effort for head coach Dan Hurley as his team only makes 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and that percentage drops to a 33.8% mark in their nine games played on a neutral court, ranking 143rd of the 365 teams in Division I. The Blue Devils hold their opponents to 30.8% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 30th in the nation — so another prolific shooting effort from 3-point land is not likely for them. UConn has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing on the road for the second time in three days. Hurley wants to slow this game down to a crawl. His team averages 19.1 seconds per possession, which is the 26th slowest pace in the nation. Their games average 64.7 adjusted possessions per game, the 46th fewest in the nation. While Duke head coach Jon Scheyer would prefer a faster pace, I expect Hurley to win this battle of preferred pace. In their nine games played on a neutral court, the Huskies are surrendering -2.3 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — and their ranking of ninth in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on a neutral court matches their national defensive ranking overall. UConn has played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams that are winning 80% or more of their games. Additionally, they have played 33 of their 48 games Under the Total in March since Hurley became their head coach, including five of those seven games this month. Duke allowed the Red Storm to make 40.6% of their 3-pointers on Friday, which was the worst perimeter defensive effort in their last 14 contests. St. John’s made 45.3% of their shots from the field, which was the Blue Devils’ worst defensive effort in their last five games. Duke should tighten up on defense for this contest, as they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also make their opponents take 18.4 seconds per possession, which is the 23rd slowest rate in Division I. The Blue Devils nailed 35.7% of their shots from behind the arc, which was the best long distance shooting effort in their last four games. Duke has played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. In their 11 games played on a neutral court, the Blue Devils are scoring -1.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. While they rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they do drop to 19th in the nation in that metric when playing on a neutral court. Duke has played 14 of their last 22 games under the Total when away from home. They have also played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total under head coach Jon Scheyer when on a neutral court after playing three or more games against non-conference opponents. This season, the Blue Devils have played 12 of their 16 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. The Huskies are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 Points-Per-Game — and Duke has played 23 of their 30 games Under the Total when Scheyer is facing a team that is winning 80% or more of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament with Scheyer as their head coach. UConn has played 11 of their 15 games in the Big Dance Under the Total in the Hurley era when they are four-seed or better. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (633) and the Duke Blue Devils (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (636) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (635) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (34-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 90-77 victory against Alabama as a 9.5-point favorite on Friday. Tennessee (25-11) has won four of their last five games after their 76-62 upset victory against Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan is demonstrating that they can still thrive despite the season-ending injury to off-the-bench spark plug L.J. Cason. The Wolverines have scored at least 90 points in each of their three NCAA Tournament games — becoming just the eighth team in the history of the Big Dance to accomplish that feat in their first three games in the tournament. Teams coming off high-scoring efforts in the NCAA Tournament are reliable bets in their next game, as 44 of the last 71 games in the Big Dance have covered the point spread after scoring 88 or more points in their previous game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on the road for the second time in three days. Michigan is one of the most balanced teams in the nation — they rank sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they have defeated three teams in Ken Pomeroy’s top ten rankings for Adjusted Net Efficiency — Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State — and all three of those victories were by double-digits. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court when the Total is set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 tournament games since Dusty May became their head coach. Furthermore, in May’s 33 games in his head coaching career, when his team is favored by six or more points against a non-conference opponent, his teams have covered the point spread in 26 of those contests. Tennessee held the Cyclones to just 21.7% shooting from behind the arc, which was their best perimeter defensive effort in their last 25 contests. But the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after an upset victory — and head coach Rick Barnes’ teams have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their 28 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road after winning three or more games in a row. The Volunteers are a great rebounding team — and they lead the nation by pulling down 45.0% of their missed shots. But Michigan’s size will disrupt them. Aday Mara is 7’3 and joined by two other players at 6’9 in the Wolverines’ starting front-line. They rank 38th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 27.0% of their missed shots. Away from home, Tennessee sees their offensive rebounding drop by -8.6%, which is the fifth biggest decline in Division I. The Volunteers’ weakness is that they are not a good shooting team. They rank 175th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They also only make 69.4% of their free throws, ranking 287th. Their efficiency is not helped by a turnover rate of 17.5%, ranking 235th in the nation. On the road, their shooting inside the arc declines by -7.3% to a 49.1% clip, which ranks 239th. Their free throw shooting dips to 67.1%, ranking 326th — and they cannot afford to be giving away points against Michigan. The Wolverines are outscoring their opponents by +17.7 Points-Per-Game — and Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines shoot 51.1% from the field and hold their opponents to 38.6% shooting — and the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. Tennessee makes 46.6% of their shots and holds their opponents to 40.7% shooting — and Michigan has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Michigan Wolverines (636) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.