Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (333) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (334). THE SITUATION: Marshall (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 35-23 loss at home against James Madison as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. Georgia State (1-8) has lost six games in a row after their 40-27 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Considering the circumstances that rookie head coach Dell McGee inherited last year, the Panthers’ season was a moderate success. The Panthers’ previous head coach, Shawn Elliott, left to take the linebackers coaching job (and back with his family) at South Carolina two days into spring practice last year. Predictably, there was a mass exodus of players entering the transfer portal after spring practice. But McGee led Georgia State to an upset victory against Vanderbilt in September. The Panthers finished 3-9 last year with only one victory in their eight games in the Sun Belt Conference, but they were only outgained by -47 net Yards-Per-Game against those conference opponents. The program was hit hard once again in the transfer portal with nearly 40 players exiting the team, but perhaps McGee was fine with that exodus since he is committed to revamping the roster. He was active in the transfer portal, bringing in a wide range of players from the SEC to FCS programs to the junior college ranks. McGee also brought in one of the best high school recruiting classes of all the Group of Five programs with the benefit of a full offseason. The defense needs to improve after they surrendered 418.7 total Yards-Per-Game and 33.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 113th and 116th in the nation last season. McGee replaced both coordinators with more time to investigate potential candidates. The defense is now run by Travis Pearson, who is a veteran who coached cornerbacks at Coastal Carolina the last three seasons and previously was the DC for South Alabama a decade ago. He tapped former Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson to take over the offense. He has multiple stints in the NFL and in college as an offensive coordinator. The roster was almost entirely new, but McGee has assembled an intriguing coaching staff and seems committed to developing this program the right way. But the results on the field are indicating that the turnover everywhere was too much. The Panthers have not beaten an FBS opponent with their only victory being against Murray State. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss against a fellow Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after allowing 37 or more points. Their defense remains the primary problem as they are surrendering 457.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 40.7 Points-Per-Game. Ranking 130th in Opponent Starting Field Position is not helping their defensive cause. And then they rank 135th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed and 127th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Panthers defense has been equal opportunity offenders against the run and the pass. They rank 136th in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 127th in Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed and Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Georgia State returns home where they are only scoring 22.2 PPG. Ranking 116th in Average Starting Field Position has contributed to their challenges in scoring points. Marshall is having a solid season, given the circumstances they dealt with in the offseason. The Thundering Herd enjoyed their best season in head coach Charles Huff’s four years with the program as they finished a 10-2 campaign by crushing UL-Louisiana on the road by a 31-3 score to win the Sun Belt Conference championship game. But within the next week, Huff left the program to take over at Southern Mississippi, with many of his Marshall players entering the transfer portal to join him. When the dust settled, 47 players left the program in the offseason. The Marshall administration seemed content to let Huff leave the program in what appeared to be a contentious relationship. They quickly tapped North Carolina State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson as their next head coach. He brought in 62 players in the portal. Establishing a new culture and finding team chemistry will be a challenge for this program, which has more continuity at Southern Mississippi. But Gibson is well-respected in coaching circles, and he should be given the time to build this program in his image. With upset victories against Old Dominion and Texas State last month, Gibson is doing a fine job — and getting this team to a bowl game would be a minor miracle. Taking care of business this afternoon gets them one win away. Marshall has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They should get plenty of scoring opportunities against this bad Panthers defense — especially since they rank third in the FBS in Starting Field Position. The Thundering Herd has one of the best rush defenses in the nation. They rank 12th in Opponent EPA per Rush Allowed and 14th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed. Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in November. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in an expected high-scoring game with the Total set from 56.5 to 63. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State lacks much of any home-field advantage playing at Paulson Stadium, formerly Turner Field, the home field of the Atlanta Braves before they bolted for the suburbs. The Panthers have only had a football program for just over a decade, so finding a fan base in the crowded sports environment in Atlanta has been a chore — and attending games on a Saturday has not become a necessary tradition for the student base at a school that did not even have a central campus before the 1996 Olympics. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Marshall Thundering Herd (333) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (406) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (405). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (7-2) has won two straight games after their 35-16 win against New Mexico State as a 7.5-point favorite on November 1st. Middle Tennessee (1-8) has lost six games in a row after their 56-30 loss at home against FIU in a pick ‘em contest last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton made a change at quarterback a month ago after suffering their first loss in Conference USA play in a 25-6 loss against FIU. Abilene Christian transfer Maverick McIvor was dealing with a nagging shoulder injury — and the offense was not taking off under his guidance. Redshirt freshman Rodney Tisdale took over the next week and he led the team to a 28-27 upset win in overtime on the road against Louisiana Tech as a 5-point underdog. The next week, Tisdale completed 30 of 38 passes for 301 yards with four touchdowns in the blowout win against the Aggies. Tisdale is completing 73.7% of his passes with six touchdowns and only two interceptions. He is averaging a healthy 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is more of threat running the ball than McIvor by already gaining 113 yards on 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground. Now after their bye week, Helton should have his team buttoned and ready to roll the rest of the season with their chances still alive to return to the Conference USA championship game. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when getting at least two weeks to rest and prepare under Helton. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a victory against a conference rival at home — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a win by 17 or more points. And while the Hilltoppers outgained New Mexico State by +253 net yards, the have then covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games at home in Heltons seven years there after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. Enduring such turnover makes it so difficult to remain consistently competitive — yet he is doing it once again and the extra week of practice along with the self-audit the bye week affords should reap dividends. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. His teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. But these new players are mostly inexperienced as well: while returning players account for 50 combined games started, the new players only have 68 combined starts amongst them. Yet that side of the ball has been a revelation. The Hilltoppers rank 36th in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. They also rank 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed with a balanced unit that ranks 21st in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 31st in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. At home, Western Kentucky is holding their opponents to just 328.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.4 Points-Per-Game. If Helton can get his offense clicking at another level now, watch out with this defense — and the Blue Raiders are an ideal foil. Middle Tennessee ranks 129th in Opponent EPA per Dropback Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They are surrendering 8.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games under Helton against teams who give up 8.0 or more YPA. Middle Tennessee is playing hard and mostly staying competitive in the second season under head coach Derek Mason. They have tough luck one-possession losses against Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Delaware. But morale may be wearing thin after that 26-point loss at home in a very winnable game against the Golden Panthers in what is now a lost season. The problem now is that Mason has never demonstrated much of an ability to get his team to rebound from adversity. The Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games with Mason after a loss at home against a fellow Conference USA opponent — and Mason’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their 24 games after a loss at home to a conference rival, going back to his time at Vanderbilt. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games after a loss at home by 14 or more points under Mason — and that just continues the disturbing trend where his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their 23 games after a loss at home by 14 or more points. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 35 games after surrendering 37 or more points, which is not a great endorsement for his chops as a defensive head coach. The Blue Raiders struggled in their first season under Mason. They finished with a 3-9 record — and it could have been worse since they won three of the four games they played that were decided by one scoring possession. They got outscored by a 41-17 margin in their nine losses. The hope was that this year’s team would have more continuity than many of their Conference USA rivals. Mason is trying to build this program patiently — and his commitment to player development should eventually produce improvements on both sides of the ball. But it is not happening in his second year with the program. His side of the ball on defense ranks 118th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent EPA per Play Allowed. They are giving up 383.8 total YPG, which is resulting in 32.0 PPG. The offense is middling by ranking 69th in Success Rate and 79th in EPA per Play — but they are too one-dimensional given their ground game that ranks 124th in EPA per Rush. They are only generating 332.4 total YPG — and their 17.0 PPG scoring average on the road is a -3.1 below their meager season average. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games as an underdog under Mason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games in November since he took over. 

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has won six games in a row in this rivalry — and the last four victories have all been by at least 18 points. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams not winning 25% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games under Helton when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (406) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.