Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 11/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Phoenix Suns minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs. Phoenix (10-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 114-113 upset win at home against Minnesota as a 4.5-point underdog on Friday. The Suns stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. San Antonio (11-4) has won three games in a row after their 135-126 victory against Atlanta in a pick ‘em contest on Thursday. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games against teams from the Pacific Division. Take Phoenix minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 17 of 20 (85%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued after DELIVERING their 25* NFL Total of the Month this afternoon with the Indianapolis-Kansas City Under to fuel their 79 of 118 (67%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! Frank is on a 13 of 17 (76%) NFL featured plays run after CA$HING his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with the Buffalo-Houston Under — and now he furthers his 10 of 13 (77%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight’s Tampa Bay-LA Rams’ O/U winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016 GOT OUT HIS BROOM AGAIN on Thursday — CA$HING Houston and the Bills-Texans Under — to make it NINE NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season while furthering his 9 of 12 (75%) and 257 of 439 (59%) NFL Prime-Time runs! Frank has 29 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 51 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 71 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank furthers his 35 of 56 (63%) NFL sides run with featured plays with tonight’s Seattle-LA Rams’ O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL! 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Los Angeles Rams (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 21-19 victory at home against Seattle as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-32 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should continue to cruise tonight since they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. Head coach Sean McVay should have his team locked in for this challenge despite coming off two important divisional games. The Rams are 30-17-4 ATS in their 51 games under McVay following a game against a fellow NFC West rival — and they are 9-6-1 ATS after playing the Seahawks. They had scored at least 34 points and averaged 37.0 PPG in a three-game stretch before dealing with the rugged Seattle defense. The Rams are generating 360.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 27.2 Points-Per-Game. At home, they are averaging +19.3 more net YPG than their season average. The Buccaneers surrendered 414 yards to the Bills last week — and it was even worse than that raw number suggests since Tampa Bay had their offense on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play in that game. I was bullish on this Buccaneers defense in the preseason — but it was mostly predicated on getting a pass rush from free agent signee Haason Reddick. But Reddick has missed the last three games due to a knee injury and has only registered 1.5 sacks in his first seven games. Tampa Bay is just middle of the pack, ranking 14th in sack percentage. This team has been ravaged by injuries — and now the defense takes another major hit with cornerback Jamel Deal out with a hip injury. Starting guard Ben Bredeson is also out for tonight’s game. It has just been a grueling schedule in their last seven games with a gauntlet that featured Philadelphia, at Seattle, San Francisco, at Detroit, then a break at New Orleans before taking New England, before their trip to Buffalo last week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game, including failing to cover the point spread in five of those seven games played on the road. Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s play has declined in the last month, facing these opponents while playing through injuries. He has only averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in those games and has only run the ball five times. Mayfield’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of his 13 starts in prime-time — and his teams have lost eight of their games as underdogs of 3.5 or more points when playing at night. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games played in prime-time. Another interesting component to this game relates to the Rams having a season win total set at 9.5 in August. In Todd Bowles’ head coaching career, playing a team with a preseason win total at 9 or higher, his teams are just 9-18-1 ATS in those games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in seven of those nine games as an underdog.    

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Buccaneers. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263) and the Los Angeles Rams (264). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-32 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 21-19 victory at home against Seattle as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers surrendered 414 yards to the Bills last week — and it was even worse than that raw number suggests since Tampa Bay had their offense on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Buffalo averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Play in that game. I was bullish on this Buccaneers defense in the preseason — but it was mostly predicated on getting a pass rush from free agent signee Haason Reddick. But Reddick has missed the last three games due to a knee injury and has only registered 1.5 sacks in his first seven games. Tampa Bay is just middle of the pack, ranking 14th in sack percentage. This team has been ravaged by injuries — and now the defense takes another major hit with cornerback Jamel Deal out with a hip injury. The Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, including five of those seven games played on the road. But Baker Mayfield should keep his team competitive in this game — especially with some key players coming back on his side of the ball. Tampa Bay expects left tackle Tristan Wirfs and right tackle Luke Goedeke to return for this game. Wide receiver Chris Godwin will also be active again for this game, although he may be on a snap count. The Buccaneers have played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog of seven points or less. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Seahawks, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, since head coach Sean McVay took over as their head coach, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow NFC West rival. Their win against the Seahawks came on the heels of their 42-26 victory against San Francisco — and they have played all 5 of their games under McVay Over the Total after beating two straight division opponents in their last two contests. They had scored at least 34 points and averaged 37.0 PPG in a three-game stretch before dealing with the rugged Seattle defense. The Rams are generating 360.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 27.2 Points-Per-Game. At home, they are averaging +19.3 more net YPG than their season average. They suffered a tough injury on defense, with their versatile safety Quentin Lake going on the shelf with an elbow injury. 

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 60-75% of their games. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 70% or more of their contests. 20* NFL Tampa Bay-LA Rams NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263) and the Los Angeles Rams (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 11/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points versus the New England Patriots. Cincinnati (3-7) has lost three games in a row after their 34-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their 25 games under head coach Zac Taylor against teams who are winning 66.7% or more of their games. New England (9-2) has won eight games in a row after their 27-14 win at home against the New York Jets as a 13.5-point favorite ball on November 13th. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played in November. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 25-45% of their games. Take Cincinnati plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 16 of 19 (84%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued after DELIVERING their 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year on Oregon yesterday (before losing the BYU-Cincinnati Under in CFB last night) to fuel their 78 of 117 (67%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! Frank is on a 12 of 16 (75%) NFL featured plays run after CA$HING his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with the Buffalo-Houston Under — and now he furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) NFL Game of the Month mark and his 9 of 12 (73%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with his 25* NFL Total of the Month for Sunday afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (253) and the Kansas City Chiefs (254). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 31-25 win in overtime against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-5) suffered their second-straight upset loss in a 22-19 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: A new book regarding how to expose Colts’ quarterback Daniel Jones may have been written this month. He was tearing up the league in his first eight games, leading the best statistical offense in the NFL. His 109.5 Passer Rating in those first eight games was sixth-best of all qualifying quarterbacks. Yet in his last two games against Pittsburgh and then the Falcons last week, his Passer Rating plummeted to 76.5. Perhaps an unusually easy early schedule finally caught up to Jones. Five of his first seven victories this season were against teams that entered this week with a 10-31 record (not counting Tennessee twice). But it was probably the blueprint from the Steelers that has been the game changer to slow down Jones and this Colts’ offense when he threw three interceptions in a 27-20 loss. Against the Falcons, he threw another interception and fumbled the ball three times. In his last two games, Jones has fumbled the ball six times, with the defense recovering the ball three times. He has four interceptions. What Atlanta did last week was to blitz him on 46.2% of his dropbacks. That was the first time since Week Two that Jones got blitzed on at least 40% of his dropbacks. He had been posting a better Expected Points Added per Dropback rating of +0.12 under pressure before the Pittsburgh game, which is a rarity since it is only Josh Allen in 2020 or Patrick Mahomes in 2019 who registered a positive EPA mark per Dropback when under pressure. Credit Falcons’ head coach Raheem Morris for concluding that Jones was experiencing outlier numbers. Certainly, more tape on head coach Shane Steichen’s schemes and play-calling helped. Jones’ shaky ball security seems to be a direct result of the pressure, since five of his seven turnovers in the last two weeks were when he was experiencing pressure under center. The timing on his throws is off as well, which suggests the pressure is getting to him. Kansas City defense coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have studied these last two games closely. In Indianapolis’ two toughest road games this season, in Los Angeles against the Chargers and in Pittsburgh, they have scored only 20 points in both games. They are generating -30.1 net Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. Jones has played 33 of his 48 starts Under the Total as an underdog. The Colts have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game where they scored at least 30 points. On the other side of the ball, I am not surprised that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has had an immediate positive impact. Indianapolis is holding their opponents to just 327.6 total YPG, which has resulted in just 20.6 PPG. Trading for cornerback Sauce Gardner makes this unit even better. The Chiefs are scoring 25.4 PPG — and the Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against opponents who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while the Chiefs are generating 5.9 Yards-Per-Play, Indy has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. Kansas City only managed 311 total yards last week against the Broncos. Their offense misses running back Isiah Pacheco, who returned to practice this week, recovering from a knee injury, but will not be active for this game. The Chiefs have only scored 40 combined points in their last two games. Kansas City has played 5 straight home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after playing their previous two games on the road. At home, the Chiefs are holding their guests to 245.6 total YPG, which is resulting in 12.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as a favorite. And while the Colts are scoring 32.1 PPG, the Chiefs have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total since head coach Andy Reid took over against teams who are scoring 27 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Kansas City has played 6 straight Unders when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total since 2022 with Mahomes under center with the Total set at 50 or higher, including six straight Unders in a row. The Colts have played just three games with Steichen as their head coach, with the Total set at 50 or higher — and all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (253) and the Kansas City Chiefs (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.