Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 8:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). New Orleans (0-1) looks to correct a -2 net turnover margin from their 20-14 loss at Cleveland last week in their first preseason game. That was the difference in that contest as the Saints’ outgained the Browns by a 320 to 312 margin. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 24 preseason games Over the Total after a preseason game where they suffered at least a -2 net turnover margin. The Saints have also played 16 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Head coach Sean Payton does have to be happy with his quarterback play in that game with Chase Daniel, Ryan Nassib and Garrett Grayson combining to complete 69.4% of their passes in that contest against the Browns. The name missing from that group is Drew Brees but look for the veteran to play a few series tonight. New Orleans has played 13 of their last 22 road preseason games Over the Total with Payton as their head coach — and they have also played 10 of their last 17 preseason games on the road Over the Total as the underdog.

Los Angeles (0-1) will be looking to get more out of their offense tonight after their 48-17 loss to the Seahawks last week. Four turnovers that translated into a -3 net turnover margin made the difference in that game. Don’t blame Phillip Rivers for those miscues as he completed 5 of his 6 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown in his limited work in that game. Expect Rivers to play more tonight as rookie head coach Anthony Lynn looks to get his first string offense more repetitions. Lynn needs better play out of backups Kellen Clemens and Cardelle Jones at QB after they accounted for three of those turnovers themselves. Either through improved play from those two QBs battling for the backup job or from more mistakes and costly turnovers, the results should lead to points being scored on the board. The Chargers have played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Over the Total after a preseason game where they had at least a -2 net turnover margin. 10* NFLx Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (430) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (429). Los Angeles (0-1) looks to clean a host of things up after they were embarrassed last Sunday in a 48-17 blowout loss at home to the Seahawks. That result may have been a small blessing in disguise for rookie head coach Anthony Lynn as he unquestionably had an attentive group of players this week in practice to address all those mistakes. Four turnovers was the biggest issue that must be changed for the Chargers — expect a much better effort all the way around tonight which includes better protection of the football. San Diego needs better play out of their backup quarterbacks with Kellen Clemens, Cardelle Jones and Mike Bercovic combining to complete 10 of 25 passes for 218 yards of offense. There are reasons to be optimistic for better results from these three fighting to be the primary backup to Phillip Rivers. Clemens threw two interceptions last Sunday but the 12-year veteran with 57 games along with 21 starts under his belt certainly no better than that. Jones should be better after another week of practice after being recently acquired by the Chargers — and the second-year pro Bercovici showed some of the feistiness he displayed at Arizona State by completing 4 of 6 passes for 68 yards. Actually, the starting units for San Diego played fine as they led the Chargers to a 7-3 lead over the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson and company for the backups soon took over. Rivers and the rest of the San Diego starters should play longer tonight. San Diego has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 preseason games after suffering -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And in their last 6 preseason games at home, the Chargers have covered the point spread 4 times.

New Orleans (0-1) is also looking for success in this preseason after their 20-14 loss in Cleveland last Thursday. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 preseason games after a straight-up preseason loss under head coach Sean Payton. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 preseason games after a preseason game where they did not score more than 14 points. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games in the preseason under Payton’s leadership. And in the Saints’ last 18 road games as an underdog under Payton, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games. With Payton being one of the Dean of coaches in the NFL at this point in his career, this exhibition game means much more to Lynn trying to mold this team in his image while fighting with the Rams to earn the loyalties of the Los Angeles fan base. 25* NFLx NFL Network Preseason Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (430) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (429). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (911) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Ivan Nova. Pittsburgh (912) concludes this series tonight after a 6-4 win over the Cardinals yesterday. The Pirates have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has played 4 straight home games Over the Total, they will hit last tonight as the home team with this game being played in Williamsport, PA some 200 miles south of their stadium. Playing in this famed Little League park for this ESPN television gimmick, I suspect the unusual environment will contribute to this being a wild game with plenty of runs scored. Pittsburgh gives the ball to Nova who is 10-10 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics for Nova call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.10 respectively. Nova faces a red-hot Cardinals offense that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .310 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and .869 OPS over that span. St. Louis has played 11 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

St. Louis (63-60) has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 7 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games on the road, St. Louis has played 7 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Mike Leake who is 7-11 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been good at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts this season — but he sees these numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in eleven starts on the road. St. Louis has seen the Over go 5-0-2 in their last 7 games with Leake pitching on four days of rest as he is tonight. He faces a Pirates team also swinging good bats over their last seven games as they are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .272 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and a .776 OPS over that span. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 50-3-2 combined angle for this situation. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (911) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Mike Leake. Pittsburgh (59-64) snapped a six-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-4 win over the Cardinals in the third game of this series. The Pirates have then won 17 of their last 26 games after a win by at least two runs. Pittsburgh has also won 7 of their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record. This novelty game will be played at the famous Little League stadium in Williamsport, PA — but I still assign the Pirates home field edge in this game as they will bat last and still enjoy a home crowd advantage despite being 200 miles south of Pittsburgh. In fact, the more intimate surroundings may give the atmosphere more of a playoff-like vibe in favor of the Pirates. Additionally, Pittsburgh have won 6 straight fourth games of a series. They give the ball to Nova who is 10-10 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. The right-hander has pitched much better in front of the home crowd this season where he owns a 2.70 ERA along with a 1.14 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 4.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Pirates have won 5 straight home games with Nova on the hill. Pittsburgh has also won 6 of their last 8 games with Nova pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. And in Nova’s last 64 starts when he was favored in the -100 to -150 price range, his teams have won 45 of these contests.

St. Louis (63-60) has lost 26 of their last 38 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Mike Leake who is 7-11 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been good at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts this season — but he sees these numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in eleven starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 straight road games with Leake on the mound. He faces a Pirates team swinging good bats over their last seven games as they are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .272 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and a .776 OPS over that span. Lastly, St. Louis has lost 19 of their last 26 games with Leake pitching against NL Central opponents. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (427) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (428). Pittsburgh (1-0) won their opening preseason game last week in a 20-12 win in New York against the Giants. The Steelers opened as a 2.5-point favorite in this second preseason game for both teams but the Falcons have bet to be a small favorite for a good reason. The Pittsburgh offense is severely undermanned with LeVeon Bell still holding out for more money and Big Ben Roethlisberger likely to only play part of the third preseason “Dress Rehearsal” contest. With backup quarterback Landry Jones dealing with an injury himself, head coach Mike Tomlin may very well rely on his third and fourth string QBs for this game (although Jones may play some in this game). Rookie Joshua Dobbs will get the start tonight after completing 8 of 15 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown pass last week. But the former Tennessee signal caller threw two picks in that game as well. He is backed up by another rookie in former Wisconsin QB Bart Houston who completed just 2 of 7 passes last week for 24 yards against the Giants. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 19 preseason games as an underdog in the Tomlin era — and that includes failing to cover the point spread in 3 straight home games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 preseason games with the Total set in then 35.5 to 42 point range.

Atlanta (0-1) looks for their first win in the exhibition season after falling to the Dolphins in Miami by a 23-20 score as a 1-point underdog. The Falcons have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 preseason games after a point spread loss in the preseason. Atlanta has a much better quarterbacking situation in place for this contest. Matt Ryan should get snaps again this week after he completed all 3 of his passes last week for 32 yards. He is backed up by two veterans in Matt Schaub and Matt Simms who are 14-year and 6-year pros respectively. Look for Schaub to get more snaps this afternoon after he just threw two passes — completing both for 20 yards — last week. Atlanta also has rookie QB Alex Torgerien on the roster but after completing all 5 of his passes last week, he is likely to only get mop-up duty after Simms passed of 104 yards last week. Lastly, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games in the preseason as a favorite laying no more than 7 points. 10* NFLx Atlanta-Pittsburgh NFL Network Special with the Atlanta Falcons (427) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (428). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (923) and the Texas Rangers (924) listing both starting pitchers Miguel Gonzalez and A.J. Griffin. Texas (61-61) has won five of their last six games with their 17-7 win over the White Sox in the third game of this series yesterday. The Rangers have then played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Texas has also played 22 of their last 32 home games after having won at least four of their last five games. They give the ball to Griffin who is 6-3 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .296 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.75 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Rangers have played 7 of their last 8 home games with Griffin facing a team with a losing record. He faces a White Sox team swinging good bats right now as they are averaging 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .332 On-Base Percentage and .791 OPS over that span. Chicago has played 27 of their last 45 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

Chicago (46-74) has lost six of their last seven games despite hot bats. The Rangers have a bullpen ERA of 4.44 this season — and the White Sox have played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. And while Texas averages 1.45 home runs per game this season, Chicago has played 27 of their last 45 games Over the Total against teams who average at least 1.25 home runs per game. They counter with Miguel Gonzalez who is 6-10 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been worse on the road where he has a 5.81 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .314 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as opposed to his 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. He faces a red hot Rangers lineup that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .339 batting average along with a .437 On-Base Percentage and 1.009 OPS. Furthermore, while Gonzalez comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, the White Sox have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Gonzalez looking to follow up a Quality Start. Lastly, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (923) and the Texas Rangers (924) listing both starting pitchers Miguel Gonzalez and A.J. Griffin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (903) versus the Atlanta Braves (904) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Sean Newcomb. Cincinnati (53-71) is playing good baseball right now having won four of their last five games with their 11-8 victory over the Braves in the second game of this series. The Reds have then won 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Cincinnati has also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They send out Castillo who is 2-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.48 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in six starts as compared to his 4.50 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts at home. The Reds have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record. Castillo should fare well against this Braves team that has lost 9 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Atlanta (54-67) has lost three of their last four games. The Braves have lost 8 of their last 10 gams after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has also lost 5 straight games at home. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Braves have lost all 5 contests. They counter with Sean Newcomb who is 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander has a 3.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .204 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road, these numbers rise to a 5.02 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Braves have lost 4 straight home games with Newcomb on the mound. Lastly, the Reds are scoring a robust 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (903) versus the Atlanta Braves (904) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (716) versus the New York Yankees (715) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Sonny Gray. New York (66-56) pulled off a big upset as a +230 money-line underdog yesterday. But the Yankees have then lost 31 of their last 46 road games after an upset victory where they were priced at least at +130. New York has also lost 20 of their last 32 road games coming off a victory. And while the Bronx Bombers have won three of their last four games, they have then lost 15 of their last 21 road games after winning three of their last four games. They give the ball to Gray who is 7-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road this season where he has a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in eight starts with the Yanks and previously with the A’s as compared to his 3.07 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eleven starts at home. Gray’s teams have lost 11 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 10 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Boston (70-52) has bounced-back to win 5 straight games after a loss. The Red Sox have also won 9 of their last 11 games at home. They counter with Rick Porcello who is 7-14 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this year. The right-hander has pitched better over the last two months after a poor start — he has recorded two straight Quality Starts. Lastly, Boston has won 21 of their last 30 home games with Porcello on the hill. 20* MLB Yankees-Red Sox TBS Special with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (716) versus the New York Yankees (715) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Adam Conley and Jacob DeGrom. New York (54-67) looks to close out this series after their 8-1 win over the Marlins yesterday. The Mets have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 7 games at home, New York has played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 13-6 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.49 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 4.07 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Mets have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total with DeGrom on the mound. He should fare well against this Marlins team that has played 5 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

Miami (59-62) has seen the Under go 20-6-2 in their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Adam Conley who is 5-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 7.52 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 5 road games with Conley facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this New York team that is hitting just .226 over their last seven games with an On-Base Percentage of .282 and a .675 OPS over that span. The Mets have played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, New York has played all 5 games Under the Total. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Adam Conley and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.