Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 11/21:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with the Houston Rockets minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Houston (10-3) has won five games in a row after their 111-104 win at Cleveland on Wednesday as a 1.5-point road favorite. The Rockets have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games in November. Denver (11-3) rebounded from a loss to Chicago with a 125-118 victory at New Orleans as an 11.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games. Take Houston minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 13 of 15 (87%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with ANOTHER NFL TNF S-W-E-E-P after CA$HING the 25* Buffalo-Houston Under play and the Texans to fuel their 75 of 113 (66%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! 

Frank's 11 of 12 (92%) NBA run with featured plays kept going by DELIVERING his 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month on Houston to fuel his 24 of 34 (71%) NBA featured plays run! Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, is on an 18 of 21 (86%) NBA sides run with featured plays — and now he furthers his 21 of 29 (72%) NBA Game of the Month/Year mark with a 25* NBA Conference Underdog of the Month for Friday night NBA Cup action! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (538) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (9-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 127-110 upset win at Portland as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (10-5) has won six of their last seven games after their 120-109 win against Washington as a 16.5-point favorite on Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: One of the biggest surprises early this season is the quality of play by Phoenix. They compete, they defend, and they play together for rookie head coach Jordan Ott. In other words, it is completely the opposite of last year, with their “big three” of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker under head coach Mike Budenholzer. Booker has thrived as the clear leader of this team now that Durant and Beal have moved on. He is scoring 27.8 Points-Per-Game on 49.3% shooting — and he is adding 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is supported by Dillon Brooks, who is scoring 20.9 PPG. The Suns rank ninth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and their rise to 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency represents the third biggest improvement in that metric from last season. Ott has this group of lunch pail players playing smart by emphasizing increasing their possessions. They rank fifth in the NBA by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. They are also forcing turnovers in 16.5% of their opponents' possessions, which ranks fourth best in the league — this is mostly a product of Ott directing his players to begin defending the ball at the second-highest jump in average pick-up distance. These are areas of vulnerability for the Timberwolves. Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.9% of their missed shots. They rank 13th in the league by turning the ball over in 14.6% of their possession. T-Wolves head coach Chris Finch has dropped point guard Michael Conley’s minutes below 21 minutes per game, which means more ball handling for Anthony Edwards. While Ant is a superstar, he can get loose with the basketball and with his decision-making. He averages 2.3 turnovers per game with a 13.2% turnover rate. At home, Phoenix has a +12.9 net Adjusted Efficiency margin — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games on their home court this season. They will be without Grayson Allen, who is dealing with a right quad — he is their third-leading scorer. They missed him on Sunday when they blew a 22-point lead against Atlanta. But without Allen on Tuesday, they took care of business against the Trail Blazers, playing on the road. This has been a feisty bunch that has only gotten five quarters from Jalen Green before he got injured and remains out. On the other hand, the Timberwolves may be without their third-leading scorer, Jaden McDaniels, who is questionable for tonight’s game with an injury. He is scoring 17.5 PPG. Admittedly, the Suns have benefitted from a soft schedule — but so has Minnesota. The T-Wolves are 10-0 this season against teams under .500 — but they are a winless 0-5 in their five games against teams above .500. Minnesota’s ten wins should make them blush: two victories against Sacramento and Utah apiece, wins against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indiana, and Portland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 contests. Of concern is the play of their defense. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season, they have dropped to 13th in that metric despite playing bottom-10 offenses in terms of efficiency in eight of their games. They entered the week with the sixth-worst drop in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency versus last season. The Timberwolves are 5-2 on the road — but their Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.4 is far below Phoenix’s home net rating. 

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has a 2-0 NBA Cup record in Group A in the Western Conference with a +54 point differential. This is just the Suns’ second game in the NBA Cup after winning their first game by 22 points — so they are alive in this competition. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (538) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). THE SITUATION:  FSU (4-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-14 win against Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. NC State (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 41-7 loss at Miami (FL) as a 14.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: FSU looks good on the laptops, which is why the betting public has pushed them up to laying close to a touchdown on the road in this contest. A few things about those metrics. While they may be generating 6.8 Yards-Play this season, that production drops a full yard to 5.8 YPP when on the road — more on the disparate home/road splits below. Second, they are only generating 4.8 YPP in their three games this month as they embark on another fade in performance under head coach Mike Norvell. Bettors still remember their 14-point win at home against Alabama to begin the season (against a Kalen DeBoer squad that has its own home/road split issues). They then got to pad their stats against East Texas A&M and Kent State before embarking in conference play, where they promptly lost four games in a row. It is telling that FSU has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their 48 games under Norvell after the first month of the season. Norvell is a fugazi — and he has made this program completely in his image. He is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. He is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. I certainly thought Florida State would be better this year after their collapse to 2-10 last year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos, who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College, where head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility, as last season demonstrated. So the misfit toys pulled off a big upset against the Crimson Tide — and they immediately bought the hype that they were poised to make the college football playoffs again. And then played Virginia to begin a four-game losing streak that culminated in a loss at Stanford. Stanford? Stanford! But here we go again, beating Wake Forest and the Hokies in between a loss at Clemson (but it’s so hard to win in Death Valley!) — and bettors are buying the hype again, at least for tonight, since they need this win to become bowl eligible. But because the only culture Norvell has established is as a frontrunner with zero resiliency when the going gets tough for the misfit toys, they are rarely consistent. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a fellow ACC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, including five of those six games played on the road. And the moment things begin to get tough, they fold — as demonstrated by Florida State’s 4-11 record in one-score games since Norvell took over this program — including an 0-4 mark this season. This team has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now FSU goes on the road again, where they are winless in three games with an average losing margin of -9.7 Points-Per-Game. Castellanos is inconsistent. He is completing 63.0% of his passes with a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. But in his three games on the road, he is only completing 53.4% of his passes with a 7.2 YPA, just two touchdown passes, and three interceptions. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against fellow ACC rivals. North Carolina State returns home after playing three of their last four games on the road. Yes, their lone victory during that stretch was their one game at home at Carter-Finley Stadium, where they upset Georgia Tech by a 48-36 score as a 4.5-point underdog. They also beat Virginia at home, 35-31. Their bad double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and the Hurricanes last week were all on the road. At home, the Wolfpack have a 4-1 record with an average winning margin of +13.4 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 game after a straight-up win against an ACC rival. There is no question that their defense has taken a step back since defensive coordinator Tony Gibson left to take the head coaching job at Marshall. But at least they are holding their guests to 23.4 PPG when playing at home. The biggest problem is their pass defense, which ranks 125th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. But their run defense is good — and they rank eighth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This matches up well with the Seminoles since it will likely put the pressure on Castellanos to beat them with his arm. FSU ranks 11th in Rushing Success Rate but only 58th in Passing Success Rate. Florida State’s defense is mediocre — they rank 69th in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed and 51st in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. NC State has a good quarterback, sophomore C.J. Bailey, who has thrown for over 2500 yards with 19 touchdowns. NC State ranks 19th in EPA per Dropback and 38th in Pass Success Rate. Bailey should have success against this FSU defense that ranks 65th in Opponent EPA per Dropback and 70th in Opponent Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (116) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.