Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 3/11:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with Over the Total in the game between Oklahoma State and TCU. Oklahoma State (19-13) has won two of their last three games after a 92-83 upset victory against Colorado as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 150s. TCU (21-10) has won five games in a row after their 73-63 victory against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have played 12 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on a neutral court when laying up to six points as the favorite or listed as a pick ‘em. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank. 

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports has WON 10 of 15 (67%) in college basketball after DELIVERING their 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year last night with the Siena-Merrimack Under! Frank is on a 22 of 36 (61%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides mark with his 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Year for Wednesday night’s Oklahoma State-TCU ATS winner on ESPNU at 9:30 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (666) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (665) in the second round of the Big 12 conference tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-10) has won five games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 73-63 victory at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (19-13) has won two of their last three contests after their 92-83 upset victory against Colorado as a 1.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU handled the Bearcats despite allowing them to nail 41.9% of their shots from behind the arc, which was their worst perimeter defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at home against a fellow Big 12 rival. TCU is an intriguing team because they play very good defense while also generating plenty of additional scoring opportunities. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 21st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Furthermore, they pull down 34.8% of their missed shots, ranking 68th in the nation. In their last ten games, they rank 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.6% of their missed shots. Head coach Jamie Dixon also has his team winning the free throw battle as of late. They rank 38th in getting to the free throw line in their last ten games — and they have the 9th opponent free throw rate during that span. The Horned Frogs have played a rugged schedule — and they have impressive victories against Florida, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. They also have a four-point loss against Michigan and an overtime loss against Kansas to bolster their resume. If they have just a decent shooting effort, they become very tough to beat. The skill set of this team translates effectively when playing away from home. They are scoring +5.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. They are also surrendering -0.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — and while that is not an overwhelming discrepancy, I do get impressed when very good defensive stats are not padded because of an underlying home court advantage. TCU ranks 48th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in one of the power ranking systems I follow — and they improve to a 33rd ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road using that system’s numbers. Even better, when playing the top 50 teams in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 18th best in the nation in that metric according to that system. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. Dixon seems to have his team peaking at just the right time — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court when the Total is set in the 150s. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. The Cowboys only made 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc yesterday. When playing on the road, their scoring drops by -4.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions, the 273rd-worst decline of the 365 teams in Division I. A concern for this team is that they don’t shoot very well inside the arc when on the road, either. Their shooting percentage drops by -6.6% points when on the road to a 48.6% clip — and that is the 46th worst decline in that category and the 256th best 2-point field goal percentage, respectively. Oklahoma State struggles against good offensive rebounding teams. They rank 167th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.1% of their missed shots — and they have been worse in conference play with their Big 12 opponents rebounding 32.6% of their missed shots, the 13th worst mark in the conference. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 150s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs swept the two games in the regular season by following up a 68-65 victory at home on January 20th with a 95-92 win in overtime in Stillwater in a pick ‘em contest. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when attempting to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Year is with the TCU Horned Frogs (666) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (665). Best of luck for us — Frank.