Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (56-40) has won six of their last seven games after their 5-4 victory over the Yankees last night that was catapulted by a three-run homer in the top of the 9th inning. New York (59-33) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games after a win. Tampa Bay did not commit an error last night for their second straight game as well as the seventh time in their last nine contests — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after not committing an error in the field in at least two straight games. The Under is also 18-7-2 in the Rays’ last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They will be using Stanek as their opener tonight. While the right-hander has a 3.14 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in 51 2/3 innings of work — he has been outstanding in this opener role where he sports a 1.98 ERA in twenty-six official starts. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with Stanek serving as the opener. Jalen Beeks will then come on to take on the bulk of the work tonight. The lefty has a 5-0 record with a 2.79 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings. Beeks has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.78 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings. Stanek and Beeks face a slumping Yankees lineup that has now failed to score more than four runs in six straight games. In fact, the Bronx Bombers have not scored nor allowed more than five runs in six straight contests — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games after not scoring or allowing at least five runs. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average along with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .767. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. The Yankees have played six straight Unders — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders. The Under is also 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.34 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in seven starts. Sabathia has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. This is the veteran’s first start since July 6th given the All-Star break — and New York has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Sabathia pitching with at least nine days of rest.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 22-7-2 in the Rays’ last 31 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (58-34) had won four of their last five games before suffering a 4-3 loss at Cleveland on Sunday. New York (42-51) has won their last two games after they defeated the Marlins in Miami on Sunday by a 6-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 38 of their last 56 games after a loss. The Twins have also won 9 of their last 12 games after an off-day. Minnesota returns home where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have also won 42 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pineda who is 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander entered the season returning from Tommy John surgery — so the first half of the season was expected to be a work in progress. Hitting the disabled list in late May for knee tendinitis did not help matters. Over his last five starts, Pineda has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP — and he is 2-0 with a 1.50 and a 0.92 WHIP while striking out 17 batters in 12 innings of work in his last two outings as things seem to be coming together for the 30-year-old. Remember, Pineda combined a 24.8% strikeout rate for the batters he faced from 2015 through 2017 before his elbow injury while inducing ground balls in 49.2% of the batted balls he allowed into play and walking only 5.2% of the batters he faced over that three-year period. Pineda’s velocity on his fastball has finally returned to what it was before his Tommy John surgery — so don’t be surprised if Pineda is dominant during the second half of this season for this powerful Twins lineup. He has done his best work at home this season where he enjoys a 4.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in nine starts as compared to his 4.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Pineda facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .238 batting average along with a .295 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691 over that span. New York has lost 9 of their last 112 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. New York has also lost 17 of their last 22 opening games to a new series. They stay on the road where they have lost 27 of their last 37 games — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Mets have also lost 24 of their last 35 games as a money-line underdog priced from +100 to +150. They counter with Matz who is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen games). The knuckle-balling lefty has been effective at home in Citi Field where he sports a 2.59 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 7.07 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 in nine starts on the road. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road with Matz on the mound. And this Matz’s first appearance since coming out of the bullpen back on July 6th — and the Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Matz making the start for the first time in at least nine days. He faces a hot-hitting Twins’ lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .288 batting average .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .831 over that span. Minnesota crushes left-handed pitching as well as they score 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over the left-handed starting pitchers with a .297 batting average, .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866. The Twins have won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won a decisive 50 of their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because Minnesota has a slugging percentage of .495 this season, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective since 1997. The Mets are hitting only .254 as a team this season — and and National League road underdogs with a team batting average below .250 facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of at least .450 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +165 range) in 67 of the last 105 situations where these conditions applied. Minnesota was priced in the -140 range last night — but I suspected that overnight line would rise above my -150 price threshold in the morning. This is still a great situation — but lets lower the investment cost by laying the Run-Line. The Twins have had 25 games this season where they were priced higher than -150 — and they have won 14 of those games by more than one run. Only in two of those games has Minnesota won the game by just one-run — and bettors with the Twins straight-up with the money-line ate the big investment cost with the loss nine times. If (and when) Minnesota wins this game tonight, it will be highly likely to be by more than one run. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Year with the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.