Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 11/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with Duke minus the points versus Kansas. Duke (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after a 100-62 victory against Indiana State as a 36.5-point favorite last Friday. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when favored by 10 or more points. Kansas (3-1) followed up their loss against North Carolina with two straight victories after their 76-57 win against Princeton as a 22.5-point favorite on Saturday. They remain without Darryn Peterson who is an expected top-five lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft in June. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Take Duke minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s 19 of 26 (73%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued after CA$HING his 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month last night with the Dallas-Las Vegas Under (God Bless Brian Schottenheimer!) in a 1-1 split! Frank closed out last college basketball season on an 11 of 14 (79%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured plays — and now he furthers his 32 of 44 (73%) CBB Totals mark with featured plays with tonight’s Kansas-Duke O/U winner on ESPN at 9:00 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (635) and the Duke Blue Devils (636) in the Champions Classic. Kansas (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 76-57 victory against Princeton as a 22.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after a 100-62 win against Indiana State as a 36.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks will play their third straight game without their best scorer, Darryn Peterson, after he re-aggravated a nagging hamstring injury in their game against North Carolina. The freshman guard is scoring 21.5 Points-Per-Game this season and is expected to be a top-five pick in the NBA draft next June. Kansas only scored at a 1.07 Points-Per-Possession rate against the Tigers over the weekend after posting a 1.08 PPP mark in their previous game against Texas A&M Corpus-Cristi. The Jayhawks' guard play takes a step back after Peterson. Melvin Council Jr., Elmarko Jackson, and Jayden Dawson lack the skills to create their shot off the dribble. Council is making only 35.3% of his shots and has not yet made a 3-pointer. Jackson is not a scorer and is averaging 3.0 PPG. Dawson is struggling by scoring only 5.3 PPG on 35.3% shooting. Tre White is a career 30% shooter from behind the arc. Flory Bidunga is scoring 17.0 PPG, but the 6’10 center has a tough assignment against the Blue Devils’ size. Head coach Bill Self has his work cut out for him tonight — but he will come up with someone (that probably starts with slowing the pace). They rank 94th in the nation by averaging 15.9 seconds per possession. Kansas remains an outstanding defensive team that ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are frustrating their opponents by forcing them to take 18.6 seconds per possession, which is the 340th slowest mark in the nation. The Jayhawks held Princeton to 31.0% shooting — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to no better than a 33% field goal percentage. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Kansas has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Jayhawks are outscoring their opponents by ++20.0 PPG — and Duke has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Kansas is outrebounding their opponents by +10.5 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Blue Devils have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +4.0 or RPG. The Sycamores only made 36% of their shots against them — and that was the best shooting percentage of any of Duke’s first four rivals. The Jayhawks have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage no higher than 42%. Once again, head coach Jon Scheyer has assembled a roster with plenty of size. The starting five are all at least 6’5 with wing spans of 6’6 or longer. Scheyer can assign either Cam Boozer at 6’9 or Patrick Ngongba at 6’10 to defend Bidunga before tapping his big men on the bench. The Blue Devils rank 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents are averaging 18.6 seconds per possession, ranking the 341st slowest in the country. This will be this team’s first test against an elite defensive head coach. Against Texas in their opening game against head coach Sean Miller, Boozer did not score in the first half as he struggled to handle the Longhorns clogging the lane to make things more difficult for him inside. This group has yet to establish a reliable second scorer from the new faces. Scheyer often likes to push the pace — but he also wants his team to get comfortable in rock fights, so I think he will fight Self’s attempt to slow this game down. Duke is 28-0 under Scheyer when they hold their opponent to under 70 points. The Blue Devils have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November, including four of those five games played away from home. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three of their first four games this season Under the Total. In the last five meetings between these teams, the game finished Under the Total four times. Self and Scheyer have gone to battle twice. In 2022, Kansas pulled out a 69-64 victory. Then last year in Las Vegas (in a game I attended), the Jayhawks won by a 75-72 score — and I regretted not investing in the Under given how that game was played with the Total closing at 148.5 (admittedly, it got close, late). 10* CBB Kansas-Duke EPSN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (635) and the Duke Blue Devils (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.