Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 11:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Los Angeles Lakers (578). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (40-24) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 119-92 upset loss at home against Orlando as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (39-25) has won five of their last six games after their 110-97 upset victory against New York as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves only made 35.7% of their shots and 22.5% of their shots from behind the arc in their loss to the Magic —  and both of those marks were their worst shooting efforts of the season. They did limit Orlando to a 25.5% clip from behind the arc, which was their best perimeter defensive effort in their last four contests and second-best in their last 16 games. Minnesota has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 25 of their last 41 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They hit the road again, where they have played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 14 of their last 22 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Timberwolves rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and the Lakers’ defense ranks 24th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency against teams with a top-10 offense. Los Angeles ranks ninth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they only shot 43.2% from the field in their upset victory against the Knicks on Sunday. They held New York to a 42.7% field goal percentage, which was the second-best defensive performance in their last 13 games. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 12 of their 20 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 19 of their last 32 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves are outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game — and Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Los Angeles Lakers (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 3/10:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with Eastern Washington plus the points versus Idaho in the semifinals of the Big Sky Conference tournament. Eastern Washington (14-18) has won nine of their last ten games after an 84-79 victory against Weber State as a 3.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Sunday. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road when playing with one or less of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road as an underdog. Idaho (19-14) reached the semifinals of this tournament with a 78-74 upset victory against Montana State as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. But the Vandals have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover  the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Take Eastern Washington plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. 

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports has WON 12 of 19 (63%) after DELIVERING their 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year on Wright State last night to fuel their 21 of 34 (62%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays! Now Frank furthers his 9 of 14 (64%) college basketball run and his 42 of 67 (63%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured plays with this 25* CBB Conference Total of the Year for Tuesday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (627) and the Merrimack Warriors (628) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Siena (22-11) has won three games in a row after their 76-61 victory against Fairfield as a 3-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Merrimack (23-10) has won 11 of their last 12 games after a 58-57 victory against Marist as a 3.5-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints nailed 52.9% of their shots from behind the arc against the Stags, which was the best outside shooting in their last 14 contests — and their 46.2% field goal percentage in that game was the best effort in their last four contests. Siena has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest, including six of those eight games played on the road. The Saints will be quite content in making this game a rock fight. They average 19.1 seconds per possession, the 29th slowest pace in the nation. They also do not make things easy on their opponent, who average 18.3 seconds per possession, the 38th slowest rate in the nation — and their conference opponents average 18.8 seconds per possession. Overall, Siena averages 64.6 adjusted possessions per game, the 43rd lowest mark in Division I — and their average conference possessions drop to 63.8. The Saints score -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road, the 32nd worst drop in the nation versus home split stats. They are not likely to replicate their 3-point shooting from Sunday in this contest, considering they rank 334th of the 365 Division I teams by making only 29.3% of their shots from behind the arc. But Siena surrenders -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They hold their opponents to 31.2% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 30th best in the nation. The Saints have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games, including six of those seven games on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court. Merrimack has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Warriors eked out that win despite only making 37.0% of their shots against the Red Foxes. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road, the 30th-worst decline versus home splits. But they are also surrendering -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road. Merrimack ranks second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they rank 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.6% — and they rank in the top 34 in the nation in both 2-point and 3-point defense. The Warriors also force turnovers in 20.2% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 11th in the nation. But Merrimack rarely pushes the pace when they turn the basketball over. They rank 297th in the nation by averaging 18.5 seconds per possession — and they are averaging 19.0 seconds per possession in conference play. And like the Saints, they do not give up open looks early in the shot clock as their opponents average 19.0 seconds per possession, the third longest rate in the nation. The Warriors average 63.4 adjusted possessions per game, the 16th fewest in the nation — and that mark drops to 63.1 adjusted possessions per game in conference play. Merrimack has played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when favored. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road against teams that are winning 60-80% of their games. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games on a neutral court Under the Total after a game where no more than 115 combined points were scored. 

FINAL TAKE: Merrimack swept the two regular season games against Siena this season after a 79-72 victory at home on February 20th. The Saints have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge, including four of those five games on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (627) and the Merrimack Warriors (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.