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3-unit play

Loyola was very fortunate against lowly Richmond as the Ramblers scored 30 points in the final 10 minutes and won a game it had no business winning. This group was down 15 points with 12 minutes to go but rallied the troops, and that comeback should have Davidson completely focused here in this matchup. 

The Wildcats won both meetings this season by 13+ points while shooting 26/58 from deep in the two meetings. I expect Davidson to find free shooters to get good looks while lining up against the worst three-point defense in the A-10. Loyola doesnt guard the three point line well, they do not force turnovers, and have not been very efficient in league play. 

This game should be played at a slower than anticipated pace, potentially 62 possessions or less. 

The Ramblers struggled shooting against this Davidson defense in both meetings this season while scoring 64 points in each game. I do not think Loyola will have magic strike twice here and if you look at the performance yesterday in the first 10 minutes, you will see it was horrific. I want to back Davidson here. 

3-unit play under

Georgetown has slowed the pace down considerably the second half of the season despite playing Xavier, St. Johns and Providence who all want to run on their opponents. The Hoyas are good at getting their opponents deep into the possession clock and making them work for everything on this end of the floor. Nova is deliberate on the offensive end so I do expect their possessions to be longer, and despite taking 44% of their shots from the outside, are not a strong shooting team from deep. 

We should see several empty possessions for the Wildcats here as they are a poor offensive rebounding team, and the defense should have success for Nova against Georgetown when the Hoyas have possessions. GT is one of the worst shooting teams in the Big East, and I do not foresee them getting efficient paint touches or trips to the line. The pace should be slow, the venue has been one that necessitates unders at a high rate, and I dont think GT scores enough here to trigger late game fouling at the end. Under. 

3-unit play

This game will look a lot different for Nevada compared to that of their first opponent, Air Force. Both of these teams are going to operate slowly in the half court and GCU possessions specifically should be long and methodical. I expect these two defenses to show up here as we have the number 1 and number 4 overall defenses in the MWC squaring off. 

The game between these two this season was 66-60 with an overtime session as Nevada did an excellent job blanketing shooters, and avoiding sending GCU to the stripe. Grand Canyon is excellent at defending without fouling and should keep this an honest game with limited foul opportunities, which will force Nevada to make open jumpers from the mid-range, something they are one of the worst in the MWC at doing. 

Important game, with a lot on the line. I expect the 2nd half to be played at a slower pace. We like under here. 

(4 Unit Top Play Florida State) Quietly, Florida State has been playing some really good basketball of late. The Seminoles are 10-2 in their last 12 games. They have wins at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against SMU in the last few weeks. Florida State is great at turning over teams. The Duke Blue Devils are without their starting point guard here. Of course Duke has solid depth here, but it will be a challenge going against the aggressive pressure from Florida State.

Duke has already tipped their hand that they aren't going to play their stars heavy minutes in this tournament. They are looking forward to bigger things ahead. 

Should Duke really be laying 18 points against a red hot team with everything in the world to play for when the Blue Devils don't have their star point guard and are just trying to get by to the next day? We're happy to grab all the points here.

Back Florida State.