Sports Handicapper Jim Feist's Picks & Predictions

The Week 13 matchup at Lumen Field on Sunday, November 30, has the 8-3 Seattle Seahawks hosting the 4-7 Minnesota Vikings, and the numbers point toward Seattle having a strong chance to cover a double-digit spread that is sitting around Seahawks -12. Seattle comes in with one of the league’s most efficient offenses, averaging about 29.5 points and 365 yards per game, both top-10 marks, while allowing just 19.7 points and roughly 301 yards per game on defense. Sam Darnold has largely kept the offense rolling in his first year running this attack, and he’s backed by a balanced unit that can hurt defenses on the ground and through the air. The explosiveness shows up in scoring efficiency too, with Seattle ranking near the top of the league in points per play and yards per play, which is a tough profile for a fading Vikings team to handle. 

On the other side, Minnesota’s season has unraveled. The Vikings are just 4-7 and sit near the bottom of the league in total offense at about 282.6 yards per game and 20.4 points per game, with one of the worst third-down conversion rates in the NFL at just under 31%. They also drag a turnover problem into Seattle, with reports noting only nine takeaways all year and a turnover differential around -12, a dramatic swing from last season’s positive mark. With J.J. McCarthy ruled out and undrafted rookie Max Brosmer stepping in behind an offense that has already struggled to sustain drives, the Vikings look especially vulnerable against a Seahawks defense that ranks top-10 in both points and yards allowed. Factor in Seattle’s 3–2 home record, their recent 30–24 win over Tennessee where the pass rush generated four sacks, and the noise advantage at Lumen Field, and this sets up as a game where the Seahawks’ offensive firepower and defensive efficiency should create separation. Minnesota may flash some resistance with a defense that is roughly league-average in points allowed and solid in red-zone work, but their inefficient offense and turnover issues make it hard to trust them to trade scores for four quarters in this environment. 

Put it all together, and Seattle’s combination of top-tier scoring, strong underlying metrics, and a favorable quarterback situation at home makes the Seahawks the choice to win comfortably and cover the spread against a struggling Vikings team.

Jim's Play: 476. Seahawks (NFL Game of the Month)

The Sunday matchup on November 30 between the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns sets up as a classic defensive, field-position battle, which points strongly toward the game staying under the total. San Francisco’s identity under Kyle Shanahan has been built around a physical run game, efficient but controlled passing, and a defense that consistently ranks among the league’s toughest against both the run and the pass. That type of approach chews clock, leans on long, methodical drives, and limits the number of total possessions. Cleveland, meanwhile, brings its own rugged profile, with a front seven that can generate pressure with four, plug running lanes, and force offenses into short throws and checkdowns rather than explosive plays.

On offense, both teams prefer to set up the pass with the run rather than engage in a shootout. The 49ers typically rely on a zone-run scheme and quick-timing throws that prioritize ball security, while the Browns’ attack has often leaned on their ground game and play-action, especially when they want to protect the quarterback and avoid turnovers. In a game where both defenses can get after the passer, coaches are likely to play things conservatively on early downs, which creates a lot of 3rd-and-medium situations and potential stalled drives.  The Browns have the 2nd ranked defense, 11th vs the pass and 2nd vs the rush. They should give Chrisitan McCaffrey all he can handle rushing the ball here on Sunday. 

Add in the possibility of colder late-November conditions as the winds are expected to gust up to 35 MPH with some snow and rain possible.  All signs point to a tight, physical game where points are at a premium, making the under the preferred side on the total.

Jim's Play: 473. 49ers / Browns UNDER

The Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis has big AFC South implications, with the Colts sitting at 8-3 and the Texans at 6-5, and it also sets up as a solid candidate to stay under the total. The Colts bring in the league’s highest scoring offense at about 31 points per game, but they have cooled a bit in recent weeks and could be shorthanded if breakout rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who leads the team in receiving, cannot go or is limited by illness. Houston’s profile points strongly to an under: DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks near the top of the NFL in points allowed, giving up only about 16.5 per game, and has been especially stingy in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals more often than touchdowns. C.J. Stroud’s return from a concussion is a huge boost for the Texans’ offense, but it also suggests a conservative early script built around protecting the quarterback and leaning on a balanced attack and field position rather than turning this into a pure shootout. On the other side, Daniel Jones and the Colts offense are at their best when Jonathan Taylor and the ground game are setting up play action, which means plenty of clock-chewing drives instead of constant tempo. Add in a Colts defensive front bolstered by veteran Chris Wormley and a Houston defense that tackles well and limits explosives, and you have the recipe for a physical, playoff-style divisional game where both teams move the ball but long drives, red-zone resistance and a few timely third-down stops keep the combined score under the posted total. 

Jim's Play: 461. Texans / Colts UNDER 

Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh has the feel of a rugged AFC playoff-style game, which points to the Bills and Steelers landing under the total. Buffalo comes in 7-4 and second in the AFC East, averaging a strong 28.3 points per game but also allowing only 22.9, a profile built more on efficiency than pure tempo. Lately the Bills have leaned into a deliberate, run-heavy approach: they’re 7-4 while ranking near the top of the league in time of possession (over 32 minutes per game), running the ball on roughly 47% of their snaps and leading the NFL at about 5 yards per carry, a style that bleeds clock and shortens games even when they move the chains. Josh Allen still gives them explosive potential, but in cold late-November conditions with a chance of rain or snow in Pittsburgh and temps hovering in the 30s and low 40s, the incentive is to protect the ball, lean on James Cook and the ground game, and play field position. 

Pittsburgh, at 6-5 and atop the AFC North, is scoring a respectable 24.9 points per game but allowing 23.9, with an offense that has been more methodical than explosive behind Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ attack is also dealing with a key blow up front, as starting left tackle Broderick Jones has been placed on injured reserve, forcing veteran Andrus Peat into the lineup and likely encouraging more conservative protection schemes, quicker throws, and a heavier dose of Najee Warren on the ground rather than deep shots. Both defenses are good enough to get off the field on third down, and with Buffalo trying to dominate time of possession and Pittsburgh protecting a reshuffled line in wintry conditions, long, clock-draining drives, red-zone field goals, and a field-position battle all set up this Bills–Steelers clash to stay under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 477. Bills/Steelers UNDER 

The Texans enter this AFC South showdown with one of the most dynamic young offenses in the league, making them a strong candidate to cover the spread against an Indianapolis team that has been solid but inconsistent. Houston’s attack is powered by the continued rise of C.J. Stroud, who has developed into a high-efficiency, low-turnover quarterback capable of stretching the field and forcing defenses into uncomfortable matchups. With a deep and explosive receiving corps, Houston consistently creates chunk plays, and their offensive line improvements have given Stroud the pocket stability needed to dictate tempo. The Texans’ ground game has also taken a step forward, giving them enough balance to avoid predictability and sustain long scoring drives. Defensively, Houston’s front seven has become one of its biggest strengths, generating pressure and limiting explosive runs - a critical component against a Colts offense that needs rhythm to function at its best.

Indianapolis, while competitive and well-coached, comes into this matchup with more volatility on the offensive side. The Colts rely heavily on their run game and the dual-threat ability of their quarterback, but when forced into obvious passing situations, their efficiency often dips. Houston’s ability to contain the run and force Indianapolis into third-and-long scenarios gives the Texans a clear path to controlling game flow. Defensively, the Colts remain physical up front, but their secondary has shown vulnerabilities against strong passing teams - and Houston’s combination of speed, route precision, and quarterback accuracy presents exactly that type of challenge. If the Colts struggle to generate consistent pressure on Stroud, Houston can steadily move the ball and create separation on the scoreboard.

Given the matchup edges - superior quarterback play, more explosive offensive weapons, and a defensive front capable of dictating early downs - Houston has a strong setup to cover the spread. 

Jim's Play: 461. Texans 

Jacksonville enters Sunday as the clear favorite, but the betting market has set a moderate total in the low-40s, a number that already reflects some scoring expectation while still leaving room for upside if either offense finds rhythm. The Jaguars have been capable of putting up points in bunches lately, averaging over 30 points across a recent stretch and showing improved red-zone efficiency, which makes them dangerous in any game script where possessions open up and the score becomes a shootout. Trevor Lawrence’s ability to create explosive plays downfield and the Jaguars’ willingness to push tempo on early downs increase the probability of quick scoring drives that inflate the clock and the scoreboard, especially against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to consistently stop chunk plays.

Tennessee’s recent results mask a team that can still produce points in spurts; the Titans have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs this season and have shown the capacity to move the ball through the air when their quarterback gets time and targets find separation. Tennessee’s home games have featured multiple overs this year, and their recent outings include games that reached the over more often than not, signaling a pattern that favors totals bettors when the matchup presents mismatches in the secondary. Add in the Titans’ offensive personnel questions and a defense that has given up explosive gains, and you have the kind of game where a few big plays swing the total quickly.

Jacksonville’s offensive line has been more effective in pass protection of late, giving Lawrence time to target playmakers, while Tennessee’s pass rush has been inconsistent, allowing opposing quarterbacks to extend drives and convert third downs. Turnover trends and special teams also point toward extra possessions and short fields - both of which are catalysts for scoring spikes late in halves and in the fourth quarter. When one team scores quickly, the other is forced to respond, and that game script is a classic driver of totals finishing above the posted number.

Tennessee’s propensity for higher-scoring home games, and the matchup mismatches in the secondary and pass rush will push this game over the total.     

Jim's Play: 465. Jaguars / Titans OVER