Sports Handicapper Matt Fargo's Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our Friday Free Play. Seattle closed the first half with a three-game sweep in Detroit and the break came at a bad time which killed the momentum from that series where the Mariners put up a three-game season high 35 runs. They are five games behind the Astros is the National League West making this a huge series but they open with a tough matchup. Luis Castillo has solid overall top line numbers and he is back home where he has been at his best but looking at the metrics, he is pitching to a 4.45 xERA and 4.17 xFIP. Castillo has a 13.1% K:BB% which is a career low going all the way back to his minor league days. The break came at a good time for the Astros which lost five of their last six games following a sweep in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. Brandon Walter has been solid since entering the rotation at the end of May with a 3.98 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and he has made only two poor starts. Unlike Castillo, he has a 2.92 xERA and 2.91 xFIP so even more positive progression is on the way. Play (965) Houston Astros

+$26,220 MLB run. Matt closed the first half with a 2-1 MLB Underdog Sunday with the winners on the +123 Pirates and +115 Cubs. Baseball has THREE plays Friday. Early Bird Football Season Packages are now available.

This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Detroit comes out of the break with the best record in baseball at 59-38 despite coming off four straight losses which dropped their record at home to 32-18. The Tigers are a solid seven games over .500 on the road but are overpriced in this matchup. Reese Olsen has gotten off to a great start with a 2.95 ERA through 11 starts but has only made two starts since mid-May, going only 9.1 innings combined. To his credit, he has allowed only three home runs and that is playing a part in his 3.83 xERA. He comes in with a 3.52 ERA on the road in six road starts compared to a 2.30 ERA in five home outings. Texas has been another disappointment in the American League as it is one game under .500 but still in the playoff hunt with this the start of a big two-week stretch to determine if the Rangers are buyers or sellers before the trade deadline. Patrick Corbin has a 4.15 ERA in 17 starts which is over a run less than his ERA in Washington the previous four seasons. He has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 17 starts and is pitching to an ERA of a half run less at home than on the road including giving up just four home runs. 10* (964) Texas Rangers

This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Athletics have been awful in Sacramento at 20-31 but a much more respectable 21-26 on the road. JP Sears is in his third full season as a starter for the Athletics and it is the third straight season where it all has been consistent. He has a 4.79 ERA after posting ERA’s of 4.54 and 4.38 the previous two seasons but with those comes WHIP’s of 1.26, 1.22 and 1.26. His issue has been the long ball as he has allowed 81 home runs in 83 combined innings including this season where he has given up 19 dingers in 19 starts but the damage has been done by two teams with the Astros and Dodgers accounting for 10 of those in three starts. The Guardians have hit only 98 home runs which is in the bottom third of the league. Cleveland has been a huge disappointment as it comes back from the break three games under .500 including a 20-23 record at home. Slade Cecconi has been pitching well since the start of June with a 2.73 ERA over seven starts but has been in fortunate form as he has a 4.76 xERA so we are going to see negative regression. He has the reverse splits, posting a 2.57 ERA in six road starts but has a 4.95 ERA in four road outings. 10* (959) Athletics

This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. San Diego closed the first half with a 6-4 homestand to improve to 31-18 at home and the Padres hit the road where they are 21-26 where their underachieving overall offense is even worse. Dylan Cease has been a disappointment in San Diego this season with a 4.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 19 starts after a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts last season in his first year with the Padres. He has been solid at PETCO Park with a 3.48 ERA but the road has been a problem with a 6.27 ERA in 10 starts with San Diego going 3-7 in those games and he is clearly overpriced here. The Nationals had a rough end to the first half with four straight losses after getting swept in Milwaukee. The pitching has been the real issue but we are getting value digging into the real numbers. Michael Soroka has not had a good season in his first one in Washington as he has a 5.35 ERA in 13 starts but there has just been some bad luck involved as he does come in with a 1.16 WHIP and there is positive progression with a 3.21 xERA and a 3.79 xFIP to go along with a 19.3% K:BB% which is nearly identical to that of Cease. 10* (952) Washington Nationals

This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Game of the Month. Calgary has been the biggest surprise team in the CFL as it is off to a 4-1 start, having defeated two previously undefeated teams Winnipeg and Saskatchewan respectively. The Stampeders are doing it with defense as they are allowing 18.2 ppg and it gets better in certain situations, giving up 14.5 ppg on the road and 13.0 ppg against West Division opponents. However, they have allowed over 300 yards passing in four of five games including 425 yards last week. Winnipeg has had an extra week to stew over that loss against Calgary as it is off its bye week and the Blue Bombers are in a rare buy low spot as they were favored by 4.5 points at Calgary in that first meeting and are now laying a point less at home. They are 2-0 at home with the offense putting up 34 and 36 points in the first two games while racking up 437.5 ypg. Despite losing by 21 points two weeks ago, the Blue Bombers outgained Calgary 408-336 but committed two costly turnovers, two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Additionally, it was the same situation for the Stampeders in that first meeting as they were the team coming off a bye week. Winnipeg is 17-0 in its last 17 games coming off a bye week so adding that to revenge and awesome value spells a Winnipeg domination. 10* (726) Winnipeg Blue Bombers