Sports Handicapper Matt Fargo's Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Tampa Bay took two of three against Toronto following a four-game split with the Yankees out of the break and are now a game over .500. The big news is that they traded Randy Arozarena which may feel like they have tossed it in but even though he is a big name, he is having an awful year with splits of .211/.318/.394 so he is not going to be missed. Tampa Bay is No. 22 in wRC+ and he was part of that and the Rays get a good matchup here against a lefty where they are 17-9 on the season and the price is based on the opponent pitcher. The Reds were swept in Washington coming out of the break before taking two games against Atlanta in a rainout series and they are back to four games under .500 which puts them 4.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League. They are a good road team at one game under .500 which is playing into this number somewhat but it is more about the pitcher. Everyone loves Nick Lodolo as they should because he has had a great season with a 3.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 15 starts but we are starting to see some negative regression. He has a 6.05 ERA over his last four starts and while 85 innings does not suggest fatigue, the recent struggles cannot be ignored. Tampa Bay in No. 12 in OPS at .740 against lefties. Shane Baz is another reason this number is low as he has made only three starts but his lat two were against the Yankees and went 7.2 innings and allowed only three runs so there should be confidence after that. 10* (924) Tampa Bay Rays

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS RUNLINE as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Miami is coming off a series win over the Orioles following a split with the Mets so they have come out playing pretty good. But our auto play against Miami on the road is back in play again on Friday and not laying the big number but going with the runline. Miami actually had a great series against Baltimore where they scored six runs in each game but it is time for regression as they hit the road. The offense is still struggling as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .283 wOBA and dead last with a .122 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 31 of 54 games and this includes getting shut out eight times over this span. The Brewers are coming off a series win over the Cubs following their two-game sweep over the Twins and they are now six games over the Cardinals in the National League Central. They are back home where they are 29-17 and have a chance to make more room before their upcoming series against the Braves. Freddy Peralta is coming off a gem in his first start after the break as he went six innings without a run on two hits against a solid Twins offense. He is as consistent as they come and has a great matchup here. Trev Rogers had a good start against the Mets but he went just 4.2 innings and has not gone six in four straight starts. His 4.59 ERA turns into a 4.79 xERA and Milwaukee crushes it at home with a .755 OPS, fourth best in the National League. 10* (904) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs