Sports Handicapper Matt Fargo's Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the DALLAS STARS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. We won with Pittsburgh on Thursday but it was not without drama as it took a shootout after a late blown lead to get it done. The game against the Predators was the fifth time in their past 14 games that the Penguins have blown a lead with four minutes or fewer remaining in regulation, and the game Thursday was their first win in those five games. They hit the road in comfortable position with a seven-point lead over Columbus which is the last team looking to get into the playoffs. This is a huge game for the Stars. Dallas sits in the top Western Conference Wild Card race despite going 1-2-1 in the first four games of this five-game homestand. The Stars head out on a four-game roadtrip after tonight so its four-point lead over Colorado and Arizona is far from safe. But Dallas is 19-4 in its last 23 home games off a loss against a division rival and here, we play on favorites that are revenging a loss of four goals or more, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 44-11 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (76) Dallas Stars

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our NCAA Saturday Ultimate Underdog. Baylor is coming off a convincing win over Syracuse in the first round as it pulled away late for the nine-point win which snapped a four-game skid for the Bears. This is the biggest line for all of the 16 weekend games and we will take advantage of overpricing based on perceived Gonzaga dominance. The Bulldogs rolled through the West Coast Conference as expected but went just 2-2 in non-conference games and while one of those wins was against Duke, it was before the current Duke which was still trying to find its stride at the time. With a number this big, second chance points are key and Baylor has the edge here. The Bears rebound the ball extremely well as they are second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Baylor has pulled down double-digit offensive rebounds in 14 of their last 18 games. Gonzaga has struggled all season on the defensive glass despite having a size advantage in most games against lesser teams. 9* (851) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our NCAA Saturday Enforcer. The public is on Kansas, well, because it is Kansas being an underdog which rarely happens for the Jayhawks prior to the Sweet 16 and the near collapse for Auburn against New Mexico St. on Thursday. The Tigers are the favorites here despite two completely opposite performances in the first round but we are backing them here as Kansas will not get nearly the same lackluster effort that Northeastern put up. The Huskies came into that game as a proficient three-point shooting team but went just 6-28 from long range. Auburn presents the same style but do not expect a repeat performance of bad shooting. Defense presents another problem for the Jayhawks, in that Auburn leads the country in forcing turnovers, with opponents turning it over on 25.1 percent of their possessions. Kansas actually turned it over 12 times against Northeastern and if you extrapolate that against a much better defense, that spells trouble for the Jayhawks. 10* (849) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the WOFFORD TERRIERS for our NCAA Saturday Early Shocker. Kentucky can typically go a long way with its athleticism but it can only go so far. The Wildcats are already short-handed, and sophomore forward P.J. Washington, their leading scorer and rebounder, will miss the game with a sprained right foot, leaving them with a slim eight-man rotation. Against a small conference, this is a game they typically would win going away but that is not the case today. Wofford is legit. The Terriers are 13th in the NET rankings, won a school-record 30 games and have won 21 consecutive games. Their No. 7 seed is the best for a Southern Conference team since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The Terriers rank 62nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are also one of the few teams that can battle Kentucky on the offensive boards. They do play in the So-Con but their non-conference schedule was legit so there is no intimidation here. 10* (843) Wofford Terriers