Michael Alexander MLB Picks Archive

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The A’s have by far the worst bullpen in the league, but they have a better offense than the Guardians. Springs has a good history against the Guardians bats, and the A’s are playing their second straight series at home, while this will be the third straight road series for the Guardians. I like the Athletics as home dogs in this spot, so take the Athletics at plus money in this one.

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The Pirates have won three of their last four games as home underdogs. While the Rangers have lost five of their last seven games as road favorites against NL Central opponents and have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games.

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Pirates are just 10-26 on the road. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or fewer in five straight games and they are one of the lowest scoring teams in the MLB so far this year. In game two, I am tempted to take the Pirates with Skenes, but I think we are getting a decent price with the much better team at home. 

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The teams have traded wins in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. This season, the Astros won three out of four meetings, and I am backing them to get another W on Wednesday. Framber Valdez allowed more than two runs just once in his previous seven starts, and he posted a remarkable 2.36 ERA in May. Valdez allowed a .213 BA in 47 at-bats against the Athletics in his career. Luis Severino, on the other hand, surrendered 14 runs in his last three starts, and I am backing the Astros to score 3+ off him early on.

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I want nothing with Pfaadt, who has a 5.50 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season, and he has a 6.94 ERA and .280 allowed batting average in 35 road innings. No, thank you. The Blue Jays have played their best ball over the last month, and Bassitt has been strong this season with a 3.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. In 40 home innings, Bassitt has a 2.48 ERA and 45 strikeouts. The Blue Jays are playing the better ball right now and have the advantage on the mound. 

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In this Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, the Royals are coming as -150 home favorites. The Royals are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, but they have been dominated by the A’s in this series and have been in terrible form lately. The Royals are above average at home, while the A’s have been playing better on the road

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The Angels have lost each of their last eight games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against teams that held a losing record and have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against American League opponents. While the Orioles have won each of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record and have led after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

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The prediction for the upcoming game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks suggests that the Diamondbacks may have the upper hand due to their recent form and strong offense. The Diamondbacks have a .500 record and are currently fourth in the NL West, while the Padres have a 38-29 record and are in third place. The Diamondbacks have won four straight at home, and their recent performance includes a sweep over the Seattle Mariners. The Diamondbacks' offense is ranked third in MLB, and they have a strong lineup with Eugenio Suarez leading the team in home runs. The Padres, on the other hand, have struggled recently, losing a series to the Dodgers and having a tough loss to the LA Dodgers. The Diamondbacks' pitching staff has a 4.77 ERA, and they are favored to win the game.

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I’m on the Astros here. I just haven’t loved what I’ve seen from the Twins over the last week, as the Twins can run hot and cold, and we’re really seeing evidence of that over that span. Colton Gordon is still getting his feet wet at the major league level, but the early returns have been solid, and the Astros as a whole have been playing really well at home as of late. Give me the Astros here.

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The Blue Jays have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month, and they’re not a team I’m excited to bet against. Gausman has been hit or miss at times, but he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the year. The Phillies have yet to win two straight games this month, and while Suarez has been sharp this season, the Phillies have scored a combined three runs in his last two starts. The Phillies' slumping offense is concerning. I’ve been on the Blue Jays a lot during this winning stretch and will continue until they cool off. give me the plus money. 

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The Rockies are going with Kyle Freeland on the rubber. Freeland came through with a great performance last week, conceding two runs (zero earned) in 6.2 innings against the Marlins and earned his first win of the season. Freeland conceded three runs in six innings against San Francisco last month and has issued a decent 4.20 ERA and an 8-7 record in 25 career meetings.

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When it comes to pitching, the Angels’ staff has a 4.77 ERA (24th) and 1.49 WHIP (28th). The projected starting pitcher for the Angels is Kyle Hendricks, who is 3-6 in 12 starts this season, with a 5.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 65.0 innings.

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This one will be interesting as the two starting pitchers in this contest have trended in opposite directions of late. Brown threw six scoreless frames, allowing one hit and fanning nine in a game the Cubs won over the Reds where he came in after an opener. He followed that up with his quality start against the Tigers, even though he took the loss, as he squared off with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Meanwhile, Luzardo has been scorched in his last couple of starts, giving up 20 runs on 21 hits over his last 5.2 innings of work. His ERA more than doubled from 2.15 to 4.46 in that stretch. The Phillies are a good team but they’re in a bit of a slump. Until Luzardo rebounds, you have to fade him slightly.

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In this Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, the Angels are coming as -155 home favorites. The Angels have a better overall record, but have been below average at home, while the Athletics have been playing much better on the road. The Angels are a big home favorite, but I don’t trust Soriano against anyone at this point, especially at home. 

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Chicago continues to play well over their last seven games, and they come into this series with plenty of momentum. The White Sox are 6-26 on the road this year, while the Astros are 22-12 at home. Houston has won three of their last four games, and they are starting McCullers, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The White Sox are going with Smith, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts. I know Chicago has shown improvement, but they only have six road wins this year.

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The Toronto Blue Jays (36-30, 14-17 Away) are playing their best baseball of the season after winning ten of the previous 12 games. The Blue Jays swept the Athletics, beat the Phillies and Twins, and opened the current series in St. Louis with a 5-4 victory in extra innings. Alejandro Kirk led the offense with two RBI, while Jose Berrios pitched for 6.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing no runs on four hits with one strikeout and two walks. Yariel Rodriguez was credited with the win. 

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This season, the Twins average 4.25 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .242/.314/.387 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Twins’ staff has a 3.51 ERA (7th) and 1.17 WHIP (5th). Byron Buxton leads the Twins with a .258 batting average, ten home runs, and 38 RBI this season.

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The underdogs have won eight of the last nine games between the Athletics and Angels. While the Angels have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against AL West opponents.

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I’m not sure what we’re going to get from Walter who will make his second career start and has pitched just five innings in the last two seasons. Bibee is easily the more trustworthy pitcher given the larger sample size and he’s been good at home with a 2.43 ERA and .234 allowed batting average in 29.2 innings. However, the Astros are rolling right now with wins in 10 of their last 13 games, and that’s the type of success I want to grab in the plus money role. Until the tickets stop cashing and the Astros cool off, I’m going to throw the pitching matchups out the window and grab the favorable prices when I can.

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The Yankees have won 10 of their last 11 games against American League opponents, have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record, and have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. While the Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents and have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.

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I’m on the Nationals here. I get that deGrom is the ace of this Rangers rotation, but the Rangers just don’t score enough to warrant laying this kind of price with even deGrom on the bump, and the Nationals have been a team that’s been steadily providing value over the last couple of weeks. I think this is another spot where the Rangers struggle, and the Nationals cash in some value for us here. Give me Washington in this one.

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The Reds have been reeling in the wrong direction of late and their pitching has sputtered after a strong start to the year. Cincinnati has struggled to generate much in the way of offense, totaling just 18 runs in their previous seven games entering Friday night. Nelson has been sharp of late and he’ll need to step up with Burnes done for the year along with other injury concerns in the rotation. The Diamondbacks have a good lineup capable of putting up crooked numbers in a hurry. One need look no further than the ninth inning Thursday against Atlanta for evidence of that. Take the Diamondbacks here as a result.

The Orioles have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a road win. While the Athletics have won nine of their last 10 Friday games against teams that held a losing record. 

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I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one. I am not a fan at all of this Diamondbacks bullpen, as they’ve had a tendency to make life a lot harder for the team than things have needed to be in recent games. However, I’d be remiss if I just ignored how good the Diamondbacks looked offensively in that series against the Braves, and Arizona’s just rolling at the plate right now, which is not something we can say for the Cincinnati Reds. I think Arizona finds a way to deliver here and get the job done, so give me Arizona here.

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Texas comes into this matchup after a complete collapse on Thursday night against the Rays, and they have lost three games in a row. The Rangers are just 9-21 on the road this year, while the Nationals are 14-16 at home. Washington has dropped three of their last four, and they have scored a total of seven runs in those four games. The Nats are starting Soroka, who has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. The Rangers are starting Corbin, who has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four outings. I don’t love the pitching matchup here, but I am going to fade Texas on the road, as they have really struggled away from home. 

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The Rangers continue to pile up the losses, making them a tough team to back. Leiter has shown flashes of turning things around, but he still has a 5.90 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through 82.1 career innings. The Rays aren’t exactly flashy, but they’ve caught fire over the last few weeks, and Pepiot has allowed 26 hits and nine runs in his last 36 innings. Pepiot hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13.2 innings. You could argue the Rays should be even bigger favorites than they are in this spot. Give me the Rays.

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The Twins have lost each of their last four day games after playing the previous day. While the Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five day games against American League opponents following a win.

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The Phillies are having a rough week, and while Luzardo has been great strikeout-wise, he’s coming off a May where he allowed 43 hits and 21 runs in 34 innings. The Blue Jays are putting together their best week of the season, and while Bassitt has allowed 10 runs in his last nine innings, he has a 2.73 ERA in 33 home innings. The Phillies are still the better team overall, but the Blue Jays are playing the better ball right now. I’ll grab the cheap price with the home team.

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The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine day games at Busch Stadium following a home loss. While the Royals have lost seven of their last eight games following a win.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-31, 15-14 Away) lost four straight series to the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Nationals, but will win this one against the Braves after defeating them in the opening two games. The Diamondbacks are now on a three-game winning streak following last night's 2-1 victory. Merrill Kelly got the win after allowing no runs on one hit with eight strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.

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I expect a tight battle in the opening game of this series. Both teams have struggled to hit the righties over the last 10 days (Kansas City 87 wRC+, St. Louis 72 wRC+), and I’m going with the Cardinals only because Michael Lorenzen has struggled lately. Lorenzen is coming off his worst start of the season. Eight days ago, Lorenzen gave up six earned runs on 11 hits and three walks in a 7-4 defeat to his former team, the Cincinnati Reds. Andre Pallante doesn’t breed confidence either, but he pitched well against the Royals on May 16. The Cardinals bullpen is another reason to take the hosts. It has gone 4-0 with five saves in the last 10 days despite posting a 5.47 ERA. The Royals ‘pen has gone 2-3 with three saves and a 4.06 ERA during that stretch. 

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The Rays have won three of their last five games, while the Rangers have lost five of their last six road games. Tampa Bay has the edge here because they've had a lot of success batting against right-handers, and Mahle has been shaky on the mound, especially on the road, where he gave up seven runs in his last three starts. With Texas' bullpen struggling, expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rays. Texas won't be as successful offensively because they're not hitting the ball as well against right-handers, and Rsmussen has been dominant on the mound in recent starts, and hasn't given up a run in three straight starts. With Tampa Bay having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Texas' offense in check.

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The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven games at Rogers Centre. While the Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites.

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In this Minnesota Twins vs Athletics Prediction, the Twins are coming as -155 road favorites. The Twins are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record this season, and the A’s have been terrible at home, having less home wins than the Twins have on the road. the Twins also have the pitching advantage, as Joe Ryan has been excellent this season, and the bullpen difference is huge, as the Twins have the 5th-best bullpen ERA, while the A’s are last in the league. I expect the guests to get the job done in this one, so take the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline.

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The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball and look to control this game from the first inning. The Cubs, who average 5.82 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Carson Kelly, Kyle Tucker, and the rest of the lineup making contact and putting together strong plate appearances. The Cubs should limit the Reds lineup with Jameson Taillon pitching multiple strong innings with minimal contact and a surplus of strikeouts. The Cubs should win the game with a strong performance at home.

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The Giants have lost four of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day. While the underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Giants and Marlins.

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The Diamondbacks should be favored as they’re the more talented team at home. However, the Diamondbacks have won one game since May 20, and Pfaadt hasn’t been great lately, allowing 27 hits and 16 earned runs in his last 26.2 innings. Pfaadt has given up four homers in his last 11.2 innings. Soroka has had struggles as well, allowing 21 hits and 12 runs in his last 20.2 innings. Still, the Nationals have won nine of their last 12 games. With both pitchers riding the struggle bus, give me the hotter team and a chance to make nearly two times my money.

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The Twins have lost six of their last seven games after going to extra innings. While the Mariners have won six of their last seven day games at T-Mobile Park following a loss, have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents, have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven home games against American League opponents that held a winning record, and have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents.

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The Astros have won each of their last seven day games against AL East opponents following a win. While the Rays have lost five of their last six road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

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The Cubs are the better team, and they are going to have no issue getting the job done in this game. Lodolo sits with a higher ERA of 4.39, and he gave up three runs in his last start against the Cubs. The Cubs' offense is averaging 5.89 runs, and they are going to have no issue running up the score against Lodolo. The Reds' offense won’t even get to their season average, and it’s going to be the Cubs are going to have no issue getting the job done. Back the Cubs on the money line. 

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Tampa Bay was able to erupt late in the game on Thursday night to cruise to the win, and they have been red hot over the last two weeks. The Rays are 11-8 on the road this year, while the Astros are 20-11 at home. Houston is also playing very well right now, and their pitching staff has been a bright spot, with the exception of Thursday. The Astros are starting Valdez, who has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts. The Rays are going with Pepiot, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five. Both of these pitchers have been solid over their last five starts, but Valdez has been elite. Take the Astros here. 

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The Cardinals continue to rack up the wins and are throwing out a solid pitcher in Liberatore, who has allowed seven runs in his last 28.1 innings. Through 59.1 innings, Liberatore has a 2.73 ERA, .229 allowed batting average, and 1.10 WHIP. Liberatore looks like an all-star pitcher this season. The Rangers are in awful form over the last two weeks, and Leiter isn’t a pitcher I’m excited to back. Leiter has been a mess in his limited career, and that includes giving up 22 hits and 16 runs in his last 27.2 innings. Leiter has 21 walks to go with 30 strikeouts, and he has a 4.43 ERA in 22.1 home innings. Give me the Cardinals.

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Tampa Bay will start right-hander Shane Baz on Thursday against the Astros. In his previous outing, the 25-year-old held Toronto to one run on four hits and three walks in a 5.2-frame victory. He is 1-3 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.86 WHIP this month (five starts) and 4-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this year (ten starts).

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Philadelphia was able to win a low-scoring game on Tuesday night to start this series, and they continue to hold a slim lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are 18-8 at home this year, while the Braves are 9-19 on the road. Atlanta has really struggled over the last week, and their offense has been very inconsistent. In game one, both starting pitchers have been very solid this year, so I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game. In game two, the starting pitchers have been even better, but I give the edge to Philadelphia, as Wheeler has been elite all season long. 

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Philadelphia was able to win a low-scoring game on Tuesday night to start this series, and they continue to hold a slim lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are 18-8 at home this year, while the Braves are 9-19 on the road. Atlanta has really struggled over the last week, and their offense has been very inconsistent. In game one, both starting pitchers have been very solid this year, so I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game. In game two, the starting pitchers have been even better, but I give the edge to Philadelphia, as Wheeler has been elite all season long. 

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I’m on the Phillies here. I think the Braves’ best chance at a win in this series was with Spencer Strider on the bump, and another may not come until Chris Sale is slated to start later this week. That being said, Zack Wheeler is pitching at an ace level and is just a quality start machine. I think the Phillies will tee off on Smith-Shawver and get the win here. Give me the Phillies.

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I’m on the Yankees here. I just think that the hot run for the Angels is over and while Tyler Anderson has been a solid option for the Angels this season and has actually been the starter for a lot of their team wins so far, I think the Yankees have a clear edge here and Rodon has been a lot better than I’d have expected him to be this season. I think the Yankees get it done here once again, so give me New York in this one.

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In this Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, the Twins are coming as -125 home favorites. The Twins are rightfully favored in this spot, as they have a better overall record, and the Rays are below average at home. The Rays have been red-hot lately, but Joe Ryan has been elite for the Twins this season, and he is coming in excellent form into this matchup. On the other hand, Bradley has been mediocre this season and has been very bad against Twins bats, so I like the Twins here.

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The San Francisco Giants fell to 31-23 on the season following Monday’s defeat against Detroit. It was their fourth loss in seven games, and the Giants mustered just five hits on the afternoon. Hayden Birdsong was charged with a loss, allowing three earned runs across 4.1 innings, while the Giants’ mighty bullpen gave up two hits and two walks in 3.2 scoreless frames. The Giants lean on their pitching staff. Over the last couple of weeks, the Giants have been slashing an underwhelming .229/.315/.363 with 12 home runs in 424 at-bats, but their pitching has been terrific, notching a 2.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. 

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The Angels won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, but the Yankees were better in three of the last five. Although the Angels are in good form at the moment, I am backing the Yankees to open the series with a win because I think they have an advantage on the mound. Ryan Yarbrough allowed only four runs in his three starts, and he has strong numbers against the Angels, allowing a .229 BA in 48 at-bats. Jack Kochanowicz, on the other hand, is rather inconsistent this season, and I believe he will have problems against one of the best offenses in the MLB. Go with the Yankees.

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These teams went into Sunday heading in opposite directions with the Diamondbacks losing four straight and the Pirates winning four of five. Heaney has pitched fairly well this season, which is surprising given his struggles in recent years. The biggest problem for the Pirates is that they don’t have much in the way of offensive production to scare opposing pitchers. Arizona has a good offensive lineup and they can be extremely dangerous at home. They should be able to do enough against a weak Pittsburgh lineup that the bullpen can’t give the game away. Take the Diamondbacks at home here.

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The Dodgers enter Sunday night’s matchup as one of the league’s most feared offensive powerhouses. They rank third in MLB in runs per game (5.63), lead all teams in batting average (.264), and sit second in home runs (81). Their lineup is loaded from top to bottom—Shohei Ohtani (.296 AVG, 17 HR, 31 RBI) has lived up to the hype in his first season in Los Angeles, and Freddie Freeman is having another MVP-caliber campaign with a .351 batting average and 23 extra-base hits already. Teoscar Hernández leads the team with 41 RBIs and has become a consistent threat in clutch moments. With elite talent and depth, the Dodgers have the rare ability to strike in any inning and from any spot in the order. The Dodgers’ offensive depth often tilts the balance in their favor. Their ability to grind out at-bats and capitalize on mistakes puts pressure on opposing pitchers from the first pitch.

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The Athletics have won each of their last six day games against NL East opponents following a loss. While the Phillies have lost four of their last five Sunday games as favorites. Additionally, the Athletics have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games and have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home day games.

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The Rays are rolling this week and it makes them hard to ignore with the quick turnaround. I’ll still give the edge to the Blue Jays with Bassitt on the mound, a pitcher who has allowed 26 hits and eight earned runs in his last 23 innings. The Blue Jays have won each of his last four starts. Pepiot is having a decent season and has been better lately, allowing nine runs in his last 22.1 innings. However, the Rays have lost seven of the last nine games Pepiot has pitched. Pepiot has also been hittable at home where he has a 4.28 ERA and .271 allowed batting average in 40 innings. The Blue Jays have burned me recently, but I’ll give them another chance today. 

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Los Angeles was able to pick up the win in extra innings on Friday night, but New York blew several great chances to get the win. The Mets are 17-6 at home this year, while the Dodgers are 13-11 on the road. New York has really struggled over the last two weeks and they keep finding ways to lose. On the other side, the Dodgers have won three games in a row and they are starting to pick up some momentum. LA is going with Gonsolin, who has pitched decently well in his four starts. 

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The White Sox have a solid opportunity for a win today against the Rangers. Texas is just 8-16 on the road this season and has lost four of Leiter's last five starts. The White Sox counter with starter Cannon, and they've won three of Cannon's last five starts. Cannon has also been excellent at home this season. In three starts thus far, he is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.17 in front of the home crowd. The White Sox are also matching up with a team that is hitting only slightly higher than they are. While the Sox are hitting just .216 this season, the Rangers are hitting just .227. This should be a low-scoring game, and one that the White Sox will prevail.

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Boston was able to erupt for 19 runs in their win on Friday afternoon and they will look to continue that hot hitting during this doubleheader. The Red Sox are 15-12 at home this year, while the Orioles are 8-18 on the road. Baltimore continues to be the worst team in the AL East and they haven’t shown many signs of turning things around. In game one, I don’t like what I saw from Eflin in his last start, so I will take Boston to win

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The Nationals have won five straight games, and their offense is absolutely steamrolling during this stretch. Gore leads baseball in strikeouts, and through 24.2 home innings, he has a 2.92 ERA and .176 allowed batting average. Roupp has been hittable all season, especially on the road, where he has a 5.04 ERA and .260 allowed batting average. Roupp is allowing a .272 batting average on the season. I’ll ride the hot hand with the Nats and the more trustworthy pitcher in terms of the road/home splits. 

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The Washington Nationals (22-27, 11-12 Home) went through their worst period of the season, during which they lost seven consecutive games, but responded with five wins in six games. The Nats are currently on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Orioles and defeating the Braves in Game 1 of the current series. 

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The Tigers have had the momentum in the AL Central, and will grow their lead here with Flaherty on the mound. Cleveland's rhythm has been thrown off recently, they only made it to the 4th inning on Monday, and will not play again until Wednesday, then have to leave town immediately for this trip to Detroit. On top of this, Cleveland will be starting Slade Cecconi, who has only made one other start this season. That one performance left him with a 5.40 ERA, but it was even worse last season at 6.66 over twenty games. The Detroit offense will generate runs off Cecconi, as Greene and Torkelson have been battling back and forth to see who will lead Detroit in home runs. Flaherty is an experienced pitcher who is coming off a win against Toronto, he will limit the Cleveland offense enough to generate a win.

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The Yankees are 7-3 in their last ten games. New York will turn to left-hander Carlos Rodón on Thursday against Texas. In his previous start, the 11th-year MLB pro surrendered one run and two hits in a five-inning win against the Mets. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA/1.02 WHIP in three May starts (17.2 IP) and 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA/0.99 WHIP in ten starts (59.2 IP) this season.

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The Nationals have won each of their last four games as underdogs. While the Braves have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against National League opponents.

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The Astros have done a good job of rebounding from losses over the last week or so, and Brown is on the mound here. With a 1.43 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts, Brown looks like a CY Young contender. Brown has allowed seven earned runs in his last 50.2 innings. In 56.2 innings, Brown is allowing a .170 batting average, and it drops to a .143 allowed batting average in 91 at-bats against left-handed hitters. It’s filthy, folks. It doesn’t matter what you think of Bradley or the Rays as a team. I’m not stepping in front of the Astros with Brown on the mound. The price is reasonable. Give me the Astros.

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I’m on the Yankees here. I think that while Patrick Corbin is off to a nice start to the year in his Ranger tenure, knowing Patrick Corbin, it feels like these results are unsustainable. Will Warren isn’t my favorite option in the Yankees’ rotation, but the Rangers’ offense continues to be so frustrating and inconsistent to back that I think the Yankees get a big win at home to start the series. Give me the Yankees.

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I believe the wrong team is favored here. Colton Gordon was excellent in AAA this season, and the Astros' bullpen — which will follow him — ranks second in MLB with a 2.71 ERA. Pitching in the smaller confines of George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, I expect Gordon to be comfortable and deliver a strong outing. On the other side, Tampa Bay is just 1-5 in Ryan Pepiot's last six starts.

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The home team has won each of the last five games between the Mets and Red Sox. The Mets have lost eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents following a road loss and have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record. While The Red have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Mets at Fenway Park while the Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents.

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The Reds are playing their best ball of the season with four straight wins, and they should like their chances to keep things rolling against a bad Pirates side. The Pirates have won four games since April 26, and their offense has scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 14 games. In 31.1 road innings, Lodolo has a 1.44 ERA and .186 allowed batting average. In 27 home innings, Keller has a 5.33 ERA and a .279 allowed batting average. There’s no reason to look in the Pirates' direction, especially with a line this soft. Give me the Reds.

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We’ve been on the Cardinals a lot during this winning stretch, and there’s no reason to stop now. The Cardinals have lost once since May 3 and continue to get production across the board. Liberatore has been solid this season, which includes allowing 12 hits and five runs in his last 15.1 innings. The Royals have lost four straight games and have scored just seven runs during that span. Wacha has been strong this season with his 2.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but none of that matters if the Royals can’t string together an offense. Regardless, the Cardinals continue to win and cash tickets. Until that stops, I’m going to keep backing them. Give me the Cards and the cheap price. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last seven. Still, I am backing the Twins in this one. Minnesota is the hottest team in the MLB right now and will start their best pitcher, Pablo Lopez. He had a shaky start last time out against the Giants and allowed four runs, but before that, he didn't surrender more than two in a game. Tobias Myers, on the other hand, allowed multiple runs in three of his five starts, and he will likely pitch for four or five innings maximum. I expect another tight game and a Minnesota win.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston starter Ronel Blanco is coming off an excellent outing in which the right-hander allowed no runs on two hits across eight innings. Additionally, the Astros have won each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Rangers following a road win. While the Rangers have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Astros following a home loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Patrick has been solid this season with a 3.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but it’s not enough for me to get off the Twins. The Twins haven’t lost a game since May 2, and their offense has caught fire during this streak. Ryan is also putting up CY Young consideration numbers as he has a 2.74 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while also being top-20 in strikeouts. Through 46 innings, Ryan is allowing a .196 batting average and is averaging more than a strikeout per frame. I’m just not trying to step in front of a team that’s won every game over the last two weeks and has one of the best pitchers on the hill. It’s a near pick 'em price, folks. Give me the Twins.

Rating: 2 Units

I keep saying the Orioles aren’t a good team, and they keep losing games. The Orioles have won six games since April 20. I’m just not excited to get behind the Orioles. I’m even less interested in Povich on the mound, a pitcher who has allowed 43 hits and 22 earned runs in 35.2 innings. In 17 home innings, Povich has a 7.94 ERA and a .300 allowed batting average. The Nationals aren’t playing any better, but they have the edge with Gore on the bump. Gore is first in strikeouts and has a top-40 WHIP at 1.16. Give me the Nationals and the more reasonable price with the better pitcher. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tanner Bibee will get the start for the Guardians here, and Bibee is 3-3 with a 3.80 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. In his career, Bibee is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 18 strikeouts against the Reds. The Cincinnati Reds will send out Brady Singer for the start here, and Singer is 4-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros and Rangers are both playing solid baseball heading into this weekend's series, their first meeting of the 2025 season. The Astros should have the edge with Brown on the hill, both for his ability to get swings and misses and his ability to keep the ball in the yard. deGrom has already allowed seven home runs this season, while Brown has given up just one long ball. Another major advantage for the Astros is on the offensive end. The Rangers are hitting just .231 as a team, while the Rangers are hitting over .250 as a team. Additionally, Brown will get his team deeper in this game. He's off to a tremendous start with seven quality games in his first eight. deGrom is still working his way back from injury and has only made two quality starts in his first eight.

Rating: 2 Units

As I’ve said all year, the White Sox are a team we’ve faded endlessly these last three years, and it’s not going to stop now. The White Sox have won two straight games just twice this season. In 28.2 road innings, Cannon has a 5.65 ERA and a .267 allowed batting average. No, thanks. The Reds need to take advantage of games like this if they’re going to right the ship. Abbott has allowed seven hits and zero runs in his last nine innings. Abbott has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his first five starts. In nine home innings, Abbott has a 1.00 ERA and .161 allowed batting average. There’s no excuse for the Reds in a series like this.

Rating: 2 Units

Framber Valdez has allowed nine runs in his last four starts, and allowed a .165 BA in 115 at-bats against Kansas City. The Royals are not great against lefties this year - a .235 BA in 281 at-bats. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come in off series wins over the weekend but the Pirates had dropped 10 of their previous 11 before firing Derek Shelton. Skenes has been solid but the Pirates’ offense hasn’t really done a ton in regards to providing support for him on the bump. One need look no further than his last start, where he allowed two runs over six innings but still took the loss as Pittsburgh mustered a single run. Peterson is a solid pitcher and more importantly, the Mets have a powerful lineup that is capable of putting crooked numbers on the board in a hurry. Skenes keeps Pittsburgh in it but the Mets are the better team: they get the win here thanks to their bats.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants have cooled off a bit over the last two weeks and Webb just isn’t the same pitcher he is on the road that he is at home. Even this season, Webb has a 0.44 ERA and .219 allowed batting average in 20.1 home innings, but he has a 4.18 ERA and .271 allowed batting average in 28 road innings. The Twins have won six straight games and are getting production across the board. Ryan has allowed 13 runs in 40 innings this season, and he’s given up eight hits and one run in his last 13 innings. The Twins have to be the play.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers are getting the edge from oddsmakers because deGrom is on the mound, but that doesn’t mean much when Texas has scored a combined five runs in its last five games. The Rangers have been held to two or less runs in 10 of their last 14 games. The Tigers are head and shoulders the more trustworthy team offensively and Flaherty has a 1.59 ERA and .175 allowed batting average in 17 home innings. Also, in 71 at bats against current Rangers, Flaherty is allowing a .169 batting average, .234 on base percentage and has 21 strikeouts. I’ll take the Tigers in this intriguing Saturday MLB contest. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Marlins here. I get the case to be made for a home underdog in some spots, but the thing is that the White Sox continue to be one of the worst lineups in baseball this season. The Marlins have been disappointing as of late, but have still been able to spring some wins as of late and the Marlins have a clear edge in starting pitching here with Max Meyer over Bryse Wilson. Give me the Marlins to draw first blood in this series today.

Rating: 2 Units

Tyler Mahle is off to an incredible start, but history shows that this will come to an end sooner rather than later. Mahle has a record of 3-1 in seven starts with a 1.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB ratio, and opponents are hitting .174 against him. He has a career ERA of 4.15 and a 1.29 WHIP.  Rafael Devers is heating up for Boston, and he drives the offense. Playing at home, the Red Sox will win this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs are favored to edge Robbie Ray and the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday at Wrigley Field. Brown has shown marked improvement recently, including a strong six-inning shutout performance against the Brewers, where he struck out four and walked none, demonstrating better command and control. Although his season ERA sits at 4.88, his ability to limit damage at home and keep the Cubs in games is promising. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense ranks among the best in MLB, averaging 5.5 runs per game, and they have the firepower to challenge Ray’s solid but not overpowering 3.05 ERA. Robbie Ray, despite his undefeated record, faces a potent Cubs lineup that excels at drawing walks and making consistent contact. The Giants’ offense has struggled to keep pace, ranking 24th in runs scored. With Brown’s recent form and Wrigley’s home crowd behind him, expect the Cubs to capitalize on timely hitting and secure a narrow win in this tightly contested pitching duel.

Rating: 2 Units

Matthew Liberatore has been solid this year. While he gave up two runs in three innings last time out, his start was cut short by the weather. He has given up just four earned runs in his three home starts this year, and pitched six innings or more in each of them. The Pirates have also struggled to hit against Liberatore. They are just 11-59 with two doubles, two home runs, and six RBIs. Bryan Reynolds is 4-9 with a double, a home run, and two RBIs. While Paul Skenes is a solid pitcher and will keep this game close, the poor offense from the Pirates will be the difference.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Cubs here. The Cubs have been solid so far this season and keep finding ways to produce at home, as has Ben Brown, who has great numbers at Wrigley Field so far this season. On the other side, Justin Verlander has been pitching better, but still doesn’t have a win to show for it, and right now I trust this Cubs lineup against righties more than I do the Giants, so give me the Cubs to get it done again here.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams come into this series with very similar records on the season, but Chicago will be at home, where they are 9-7 this year. The Cubs are the highest scoring team in the MLB so far this season and they have scored at least six runs in three of their last four games. Chicago is starting Boyd, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. SF is going with Roupp, who has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. I think the Cubs have the slight advantage in this game and I like them to win here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tampa Bay Rays have cooled down and were dealt a series sweep against the Royals before this series. They have dropped four of their past five games. The New York Yankees have thrived against the Rays this season, winning four of the six meetings. The Yankees are sporting an 11-6 record at home. Rays pitcher Taj Bradley just pitched against this New York squad a few weeks ago, and it was a rough one. Bradley squandered six runs in only 5.1 innings pitched in a defeat. Yankees pitcher Will Warren is no Cy Young, but he has conceded two or fewer runs in four of his six outings. He has been solid at home, keeping his opponents to four runs in 10 innings at Yankee Stadium.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last six. Kyle Hendricks is obviously not the same pitcher he used to be, and his numbers are declining, which is the main reason I am going with Detroit in this one. Hendricks allowed 15 runs in his last three starts, and he is going to struggle against the hot Tigers offense. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, has been more stable so far in the season; he has allowed more than two runs only twice. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Cubs in this one. The Cubs continue to be one of the best teams in baseball against lefties so far this year, and while Jose Quintana continues to be solid out of the gate this year, I don’t know how much more sustainable it’s going to be. I am not the biggest Jameson Taillon fan, but he’s got the offense behind him to back it up, and I think the Cubs add on to Friday’s dominant showing with a win here. Give me the Cubs

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last four, all this season. Seattle didn't allow more than three runs in those four H2Hs this year, and I am backing the Mariners to limit the Rangers again and not allow them more than three runs. Luis Castillo faced the Rangers twice last year and posted a 3.00 ERA in 12.0 innings. He allowed a .266 BA in 79 at-bats against Texas in his career. Patrick Corbin, on the other hand, registered a 4.50 ERA in 6.0 innings against Seattle last year, and I doubt he will last more than four or five innings here. I am going with the Mariners to get another win.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams come into this matchup trending in opposite directions, and the Athletics will look to stay hot. The A’s have won five of their last six games, and they are just two games back in the AL West standings. Miami has lost six games in a row, and its pitching staff has the worst team ERA in the MLB. The Marlins are starting Meyer, who has some decent numbers on the season, but did allow five earned runs last time out. The Athletics are going with Bido, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five games. Take the A’s to stay hot with another win here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets are not only the better team, but Megill is coming off a hell of an April, where he allowed 20 hits and five earned runs in 26 innings. Megill is part of a Mets pitching staff that has been dealing all season long. The Cardinals are having issues finishing games, and Fedde has allowed 26 hits and 16 runs in his last 26.2 innings. The Cardinals have lost the last five games Fedde has pitched. Also, the Mets have owned Fedde throughout his career, which includes current hitters batting .330 with four homers in 112 at-bats. You can argue the price should be steeper than what it is. Give me the Mets this afternoon.

Rating: 2 Units

You can make a case for the Nats and Parker, as he’s been strong this season, which includes allowing 19 hits and 11 earned runs in his last 31 innings. I’m not mad at it. I’m still leaning toward the Reds and the reasonable price. The Reds are playing their best ball of the season, and Greene is looking like one of the best young arms in the sport. In the last 31.2 innings, Greene has allowed 22 hits and nine runs while striking out 35. In 19 home innings, Greene has a 1.42 ERA and .123 allowed batting average. I can’t step in front of that. I’ll roll with the Reds

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have lost each of their last nine night games against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road win. While the home team has won five of the Orioles' last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

Houck hasn’t pitched well this season and has been roughed up in his last three starts. The Red Sox’ bats have woken up, scoring 30 runs in their last three runs entering Wednesday night. Berrios hasn’t been overwhelming in his work this season and Toronto’s bats have been inconsistent at best. The Blue Jays entered Wednesday losers of eight of their previous nine games and scored two runs or less in six of their previous seven. Boston has been better offensively and after hammering Francis for five homers in three innings Tuesday, they have momentum on their side. Look for the Red Sox to prevail here to take the series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Rangers. While the Rangers have lost three of their last four games as favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

There is a slight edge for the Rays in this game with Baz on the hill against Lugo. The Rays are 4-1 in his five starts this season while the Royals are just 3-3 in Lugo's six starts. Baz also has more strikeouts and allowed fewer hits per nine innings than Lugo this season. Another area of concern for the Royals is Lugo's propensity for giving up the long ball. He has allowed six home runs this season, and the Rays' new digs, the Yankees' Spring Training facility, have proven to be quite hitter-friendly this season. The Royals are less likely to take advantage, given that they are last in baseball in runs scored and home runs. They are also just 29th in slugging percentage. The Rays will take care of business today and close the series with a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against the Pirates and have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss. While the Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a home win.