NBA Power Ratings

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Saturday, April 20th, 2019
Power Ratings
Home Visitor Opening Line Updated Line Prediction Average Prediction Standard Deviation
Nets 76ers 2.5 1.5 2.55 1.24
Spurs Nuggets -3.5 -3.5 -0.33 0.81
Pistons Bucks 8.0 9.0 9.55 2.49
Jazz Rockets -2.5 -2.5 3.63 3.87
Power Ratings
Home Visitor Line AVG FOX SAG MOR MAR Diff Total Total difference
Nets 76ers 1.5 2.55 2.00 4.27 1.38 16.15 -14.65 231½ -10.80
Spurs Nuggets -3.5 -0.33 -1.00 0.81 -0.80 -7.25 3.75 208 -5.00
Pistons Bucks 9.0 9.55 13.00 7.20 8.45 52.75 -43.75 216 3.00
Jazz Rockets -2.5 3.63 9.00 1.87 0.03 48.75 -51.25 215½ 1.50
Sunday, April 21st, 2019
Power Ratings
Home Visitor Opening Line Updated Line Prediction Average Prediction Standard Deviation
Pacers Celtics 2.5 2.5 1.34 1.40
Clippers Warriors 8.5 8.5 7.03 2.91
Magic Raptors 5.0 5.0 4.24 1.07
Thunder Blazers -6.0 -6.0 1.73 1.65
Power Ratings
Home Visitor Line AVG FOX SAG MOR MAR Diff Total Total difference
Pacers Celtics 2.5 1.34 1.00 3.20 -0.17 14.75 -12.25 203 21.80
Clippers Warriors 8.5 7.03 11.00 5.98 4.10 23.35 -14.85 235 -7.20
Magic Raptors 5.0 4.24 3.00 5.61 4.12 22.75 -17.75 207 10.70
Thunder Blazers -6.0 1.73 4.00 1.03 0.15 21.75 -27.75 223½ 10.50

This page provides you with some of the most well known power ratings that are widely available to the betting public. The three included in the table above are Stat Fox (FOX), Jeff Sagarin of USA Today (SAG) and Sonny Moore (MOR). Both the Prediction Average in the top table and AVG in the bottom table is the average of the three power ratings combined.

For those of you who aren't familiar with how power ratings are used for betting, it's not that hard to grasp once you understand what is going on. Basically each of these three systems assign a point rating to each team. For example, at the time this was written, the Golden State State Warriors had the highest power rating of any team at 106, while the Philadelphia 76ers had the worst rating at 87 (tied with Orlando).

With these ratings, we can come up with a hypothetical line for a potential matchup between these two teams. If Golden State and Philadelphia were to meet on a neutral floor, we would expect to see a line of the Warriors -19 (106-87) with this system. To get a more precise number, Statfox uses a full 3-points for home court advantage. If the Warriors were at home, you would add an additional 3-points to the spread (-22), and if the 76ers were the host you would subtract 3-points (16).

Unlike Statfox, which rounds up to the nearest whole number for their rating, both Sagarin and Moore use a more precise rating. For example, Sagarin has Golden State listed with the highest rating at 99.76, while Moore has them at 88.00. It's also worth noting that each system varies in how they view homecourt advantage. Sagarin has the homecourt edge at 1.69 (varies throughout season) and Moore has a set 2.85 points.

The "Prediction Standard Deviation" (found in top table),  shows how much variance is in the power ratings for that specific game. The lower the number means the stronger the three systems agree. If all three power ratings came up with the same projected spread for a game, the predicted standard deviation would be 0.00.