Nick Parsons NHL Picks Archive

This is a 4% GOW on the Oilers.

Would the League love a Game 7? Of course! 

But the Oilers have rebounded well in this spot all season, and with everything "on the line" here, I believe that Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid will step up here and deliver.

Whether it's Calvin Pickard or Stuart Skinner, I like Edmonton here.

There's no question that the Oilers have their work cut out for them. History is not on their side, as dating back to the 2000 Stanley Cup Final, there have been 20 series to reach a Game 6, and the team up 3-2 has won 14 out of the 20 times. 

So difficult, but not impossible.

Remember, the Oilers did salvage their Cup hopes with a Game 6 win as well last year, before eventually falling in seven games.

History is about to repeat itself. At least for this first part, and then we'll see what happens in Game 7.

In fact, when the Oilers do win Game 6, they'll then have a 50/50 shot at winning the Cup, because teams that are down 3-2 in the Stanley Cup Finals who won are then 4-4 to win Game 7 over the last 25 years. 

Sergei Bobrovsky has been amazing once again this year for the Panthers, but he also hasn't been perfect. He's had big lapses at times, and I think he's going to struggle to contain this potent Oilers' offense.

I think EDMONTON offers great value to extend this series to seven games.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% TOP PLAY on the UNDER Panthers/Oilers.

The first four games of this series have flown OVER the number, but now with the Finals down to "The-Best-Of-Three," I'm expecting these capable defensive teams to finally "show up."

Fatigue will also play a major factor in my opinion at this point after three of the first four games have gone into overtime.

Once the Oilers made the change to Calvin Pickard between the first and second period, their defensive play suddenly looked a lot better. Pickard went on to stop 22 of 23 shots in Game 4 after Stuart Skinner allowed three goals on 17 shots in the first period. 

Pickard though enters Game 5 with a solid 2.69 GAA. 

It's interesting to note that dating back to last year's Cup Final, six of these teams last seven head-to-head matchups have been decided by one goal.

Both teams have looked great offensively, but I think it'll be Pickard and Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky that take "center stage" so to speak. 

Edmonton now has momentum and home ice advantage on its side. The Oilers are now the first road team to rally from a 3-0 deficit to win a Stanley Cup Final game since 1919. 

IF the Oilers decide to go with Skinner, then I STILL love this play. Skinner has a 2.99 GAA and he'll benefit from playing in front of the home town crowd.

The value has now FINALLY swung the other way as far as the total is concerend. The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Oilers/Panthers.

Both games went to overtime in Edmonton, and both games flew over the number.

All tied up and now with a shift in venue, I also believe we'll see a shift in pace as far as the tempo is concerned, and that these admittedly struggling, but very competent goaltenders are going to "steal the show" so to speak in Game 3.

Florida has been a lot better defensively at home, allowing just 2.57 goals per game with an 87.0 percent penalty kill.

The Oilers are really good on the road. Since being down 0-2 to the Kings in the first round, they've gone 6-1 on the road and averaged 31.9 shots per game. 

But Sergei Bobrovsky continues to look solid in the Stanley Cup Final with a .913 save percentage and a 2.64 GAA.

So far, there have only been nine 5 on 5 goals, and after seeing 14 penalties called in Game 2, I think we're going to see a lot fewer infractions called here in Florida in Game 3.

Stuart Skinner will have to elevate his play on the road here to try and match Bobrovsky, where he's been almost unbeatable. But since those two road losses in LA, the Oilers have only conceded 2.29 goals per game on the road in the playoffs. 

Overall, the Panthers are averaging and allowing just 2.57 goals per game at home in the playoffs this year.

A great situational play here. This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NHL BEST BET on the UNDER Florida/Edmonton.

After Game 1 flew OVER the number in the Oilers' 4-3 victory, I'm anticipating a much tighter and lower-scoring outcome in Game 2.

I had the Oilers in Game 1, and while it was a tight 4-3 overtime win, Edmonton outplayed Florida, except in the second period.

The Oilers outshot the Panthers 46-32.

Stuart Skinner had 29 saves for Edmonton as the Oilers erased a multi-goal deficit (note: 76 percent of teams that win Game 1 of the Best-of-7 Stanley Cup Final have won the series all time).

It was a great overtime goal as well, with Connor McDavid to Leon Draisaitl.

Here's another really interesting stat about Draisaitl: he's now tied the Stanley Cup Playoffs record for most overtime goals in one playoff year with three.

In the end, neither Sergei Bobrovsky nor Skinner had great games, but they'll bounce back in Game 2.

Note that going into Game 1 Bobrovsky had a .912 save percentage and a 2.11 goals against average in the playoffs, while Skinner had a 9.04 save percentage and a 2.53 GAA.

That's how I see Game 2 unfolding: a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring affair. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oilers.

If you're betting on this game, then you almost assuredly know the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, the story lines coming into their second straight Stanley Cup Final against each other, and the cast of characters on both sides.

Time to get strategic with our betting over the final few games. I'm usually a contrarian capper, but will be throwing that factor out the window for the final, making my picks.

I have a really difficult time seeing Connor McDavid and Stuart Skinner lose both games at home to open this series. If Edmonton loses in Game 1, I'm going to take them again in Game 2.

If the Oilers win in Game 1, then I'll reconsider what to do in Game 2. 

This is my strategy going into the first two games. 

Great line value here on the revenge-minded home side (as note, that Florida is only 20-19-2 on the road this year, while Edmonton is 25-13-3 at home.)

Lay the short price with confidence on the OILERS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILER on the Carolina Hurricanes.

I had a play on Carolina in Game 1 on the puckline. I figured that Florida would be exhausted after its seven-game Round 2 series win over Toronto, and that a rested Carolina side would be able to take advantage.

Instead, rest led to rust for Carolina.

But this has now for sure become the Hurricanes' most important game of the year. 

Carolina has struggled in this round. It's beyond ridiculous in fact, as note that the Hurricanes have advanced to four conference finals over the last 15 years, only to get swept in them all. So with the Game 1 loss, that's now 13 straight Eastern Conference Finals losses in a row. 

Head coach Rob Brind'Amour scored a game winner in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final against Buffalo, but that was 19 years ago now.

Leading up to this game, Carolina netminder Frederik Andersen was No. 1 in basically every statistical category for goaltenders, and while he stumbled in the first game, I think he'll bounce back here.

I definitely underestimated Florida in Game 1, as it rode the wave of emotion to another big win after coming from behind to knock off the Leafs in the second round.

But now I really do think that the Panthers will be exhausted after the emotional seven-game series win and then the upset victory in Game 1 to already steal the home ice advantage in this series.

I say Florida does have a letdown here in Game 2 and in their most important game of the season, I look for the HURRICANES to step up and tie this series.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER PICK on the Canes on the puckline.

I'm not swinging for the fences with this pick. I really like it, though. As primarily a situational capper, I feel there's tremendous value in grabbing Carolina on the puckline option for the massive plus-money return.

Florida has looked extremely shaky throughout these Playoffs, and it's coming off an exhausting seven-game series with Toronto.

Carolina has steamrolled its competition, losing only one game in each series so far.

Look for the rested home side to not only win Game 1 of the ECF, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the 1.5 goals on CAROLINA on the PUCKLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 WEST-CONF TOY is on the OVER Jets/Stars.

Only one game has gone OVER the number so far in this series. The Stars have lost two games, both by identical 4-0 scores. 

So while it's true that both sides have had difficulties in posting many goals in this series, I think that Game 6 will finally be a faster-paced affair filled with a bunch of pucks finding the back of the net. 

Connor Hellebuyck only needed to make 22 saves for the Jets in Game 5, but now back at home, I expect the Stars' offense to once again pick up the pace.

Nikolaj Ehlers had two goals for Winnipeg last time out and there's no reason not to think that the Jets can't duplicate their Game 5 performance on the offensive end this time around either.

Jake Oettinger has looked shaky at times in the playoffs already and I think he'll struggle here like he did in Game 5.

This number is low, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNISHER on the Washington Capitals.

I really wanted to take Washington on the puckline in this one, but clearly, we can't lay this steeper price.

I'm not counting out the Capitals yet, and even if I were able to find an affordable puckline somewhere, I'd still have also suggested to "sprinkle" a little on the moneyline on Washington as well.

Either way, I say that Alexander Ovechkin and the Capitals are going to find a way to extend this series at least one more game.

Literally do or die here. Go big or go home. I guess Washington already is at home here in Game 5, as the Capitals are still 30-7-4 at home this season. 

Only 32 teams in NHL Playoff history have ever come back from a 3-1 series deficit, so the odds are clearly against the Capitals in actually pulling off a comeback, but as I say, I do think they have what it takes to extend the series at least one more game. 

The Capitals have many positives to draw upon, as they still have a record of 25-8-0 in games after a loss this year and they also lead the league in the regular season with comeback victories as well.

Carolina has looked fantastic. It's been able to suffocate Washington's offense and capitalize on the Capitals' mistakes.

Carolina goaltender Frederik Anderson leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a .933 save percentage. 

It's difficult to say anything negative about Carolina, so I won't bother. The last thing Carolina can afford to do is give the Capitals a glimmer of hope in this series, but I smell a letdown finally here for Carolina, which enters at just 16-21-4 on the road this season.

I say WASHINGTON is the correct call here in Game 5 as a LIVE DOG at home.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Florida Panthers.

Momentum in sports is a very real, almost tangible factor that has to be taken into account at times. And I think that's perhaps even more true in the Playoffs.

When a team gets on either positive or negative "momentum" in the Playoffs, it can often be difficult to slow down.

It's also a factor in which I've come to find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line.

At right around -130 to -145, I think the Panthers are properly priced here. I think they're going to win Game 5 and get even stronger moving forward.

They played their most complete game of the entire Playoffs in Game 4 by winning 2-0. I couldn't believe how poorly Panthers' netminder Sergei Bobrovsky was looking over the first two games of this series, but now he's suddenly looking like his usual dominant self. And I think he can continue to build momentum himself in this series moving forward as well. 

Florida has interestingly won 25 consecutive Playoff games when leading after the second period. 

And while the Panthers' star players are starting to regroup and figure things out, the Leafs are going in the opposite direction all of a sudden (especially on the offensive end, led by Auston Matthews, who has yet to score in this series.)

Joseph Woll was basically the lone bright spot in defeat for Toronto, stopping 35 of 37 shots.

So far home ice has APPEARED to mean a lot in this series, but I say it's more just the way these teams came into it. Florida has made positive adjustments that are now leading to success and I say that momentum continues here in Game 5 on the road.

Lay the price, the play is on the PANTHERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Capitals/Canes.

The first three games in this series have all gone well UNDER the number, but I'm finally anticipating a much faster-paced and higher-scoring affair here.

Alexander Ovechkin and the Capitals are off the 4-0 loss here in Carolina after splitting the first two games of this series at home, but note that Washington has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.

Carolina has also seen the total go OVER in four of its last six after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Expect a faster pace to finally lead to some goals in this series.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNISHER on the UNDER Leafs/Panthers.

The first three games of this series have all flown well OVER the number, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here on Sunday finally in Game 4.

Both teams are now clearly fatigued after Game 3's 5-4 OT win by Florida. Toronto still leads 2-1. 

I say it's the Panthers that are lucky not to be down 3-0:

“Everybody’s upset,” Toronto coach Craig Berube told reporters Saturday. “You can really let it go the other way. Or you can grab it, fix it, make some adjustments.

“We’re always prepared for a long series. We have an opportunity to go into Game 4 (on Sunday) and get a split.”

Look for Toronto goaltender Joseph Woll to be better this time around as well. Sergei Bobrovsky has uncharacteristically struggled for the Panthers as well in this series.

While the first three have all flown over, everything points to Game 4 staying UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Capitals/Canes.

It's all tied up heading back to Carolina. I had a play on the OVER in Game 2, and while that pick came up short in the Capitals' 3-1 victory, I think the shift in venue will also see a shift in pace of play here in this series.

The Capitals have seen the total go UNDER in three straight now following their 3-1 win, but Alexander Ovechkin and company, who looked a lot better offensively in Game 2, are going to now have their hands full here on the road:

“We’d love to be up two,” Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal said after Game 2. “But it’s a good team, and we’re going to have to start fresh at home here and take it to them again.”

Carolina has so far dominated possession in five of the six regulation periods, and with the home side looking to set the pace, I believe Game 3 will finally fly well OVER the number, with each side finding the back of the net at a prodigious rate.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNISHER on the Toronto Maple Leafs on the puckline.

Florida was favored in Game 1 and in Game 2 and now the Panthers head back home down 0-2 in this second-round series with Toronto.

Now the defending champs are massive favorites, but I believe that we're going to have another really competitive battle here in Game 3.

The first two games were decided by a single goal, and all signs point to another nail-biter here in Florida in Game 3 as well between these evenly matched sides.

The outright is possible, but great value here to take TORONTO on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNISHER on the OVER Oilers/Knights.

Vegas has seen the total go UNDER in three straight following its 4-2 series-opening loss here two nights ago.

That's important to note though for two reasons, as the Knights have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Golden State has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will be here in Game 2, I'm expecting this total to fly well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on the Las Vegas Knights.

I think the Oilers open up this series a little flat-footed after their tough six-game series win over the Kings.

Edmonton started off slowly, losing the first two games in LA, and I believe a similar fate now awaits the Oilers here in Game 1 of Round 2.

Vegas won in six games over Minnesota, making the home-ice advantage that much more crucial in this series.

Lay the price, the play is LAS VEGAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW on the Panthers.

These teams are very familiar with each other. I could write a convincing argument for either side to win.

Just giving this Game 1 the good old "eye test" though, and to me the Panthers enter this series in much better overall form.

Florida took care of Tampa in five games and in all but one, looked completely dominant. 

That included winning the final two games by a combined score of 10-5.

Toronto looked a lot shakier in its six-game series victory over Ottawa, which included three OT games (which it won two of), and a 4-0 shutout loss. 

Sergei Bobrovsky looked sharp in the first round and I think he'll be a difference-maker in Game 1 for the Panthers as well.

Lay the price, the play is on FLORIDA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Blues/Jets.

The last four games in this series have all flown well OVER the number, but I'm finally anticipating more of a goaltenders battle in Game 7.

Despite losing 5-2 in Game 6, note that the Jets have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Home ice advantage has proven critical so far in this series, so it will be interesting to see if that pattern continues in Game 7. Nearly 85% of the early public money believes it will.

I'm not interested in the side, but I say that these two normally decent, defensive-minded clubs finally play to a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Avs/Stars.

The O/U is 3-3 in this series, but the last two have flown OVER the number. Dallas fell 7-4 at Colorado in Game 6.

Note that the Stars have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog against an opponent.

These are two great offensive clubs, but they're also great on the defensive end.

But for me, I see Game 7 being a very tightly-checked affair. While the last two games have flown well OVER the number, the overall situation points to a very defensive battle in Game 7 in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jets/Blues.

The last three games in this series have all gone OVER the number, but I'm anticipating much more of a defensive battle finally here in Game 6.

Note that the Blues have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Additionally, note that Winnipeg has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Four of five in this series have flown OVER the number, but everything finally points to a lower-scoring UNDER on Friday in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on the Ottawa Senators.

I think we're going to a Game 7. At this price, considering the shift in momentum in this series, I feel we're getting great line value on the still desperate home side.

This was always going to be an issue with Toronto, in whether or not it can bring the same intensity night in and night out. 

These teams are evenly matched and while Toronto was a good road side, Ottawa has excelled at home by going 27-11-3. 

I say Brady Tkachuk and company push this one to a decisive Game 7.

The play is on OTTAWA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Blues/Jets.

Three of the four games in this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm finally anticipating a much tighter and lower-scoring outcome here in Game 5.

It's now down to the Best of 3 after the Blues took Game's 3 and 4 and home by scores of 7-2 and 5-1. 

Despite losing Game 4, note that the Jets have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The oddsmakers aren't giving St. Louis much of a chance here. This O/U line isn't very high either when compared to the final combined outcome over the last two games.

The Blues explosive offense over the last two games has in fact masked their great defensive play in this series, conceding 10 goals over the four games. Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko along with goaltender Jordan Binnington are going to be key for St. Louis if it has any hopes in pulling off the upset.

Winnipeg has fallen apart, but the good news is that it's still tied 2-2 and they still have the home ice advantage. I expect a much better performance here from Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes at home.

With each team doubling down defensively in this all-important Game 5 like I envision it will, the UNDER becomes the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Wild/Knights.

All four games have gone OVER the number, but I finally anticipate these sides to play a very tight, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here in Game 5. The Knights won 4-3 in OT in Game 4, after losing Game 3 by a score of 5-2.

Note, though, that Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. 

These teams played three times in the regular season, and two of those three games stayed well UNDER the number.

Expect these defensive-minded clubs to finally play to a lower-scoring outcome here in this all-important Game 5.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOWOUT SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Kings/Oilers.

The first three games of this series have all blown well past the posted number, including in the Oilers' 7-4 win in Game 3, but I believe that Game 4 will finally be way more of a defensive affair.

Both teams will be fatigued here heading into Game 4.

Also note that Edmonton has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Look for these defenses to finally show up on Sunday night.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Senators.

I had a big play on Toronto in Game 3, but I don't think that the Leafs are going to sweep this series.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Toronto has gotten some good bounces in this series.

The Sens are 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite as well.

Look for the Leafs to wrap this series up back in front of the hometown crowd in Game 5 as a big favorite.

The play is OTTAWA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Kings/Oilers.

The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number, but with the shift in venue I'm finally expecting much more of a defensive affair.

Neither team has gotten great goaltending, but after scoring 12 goals at 5-on-5 through the first two games, I expect these crazy offensive numbers to come back down to Earth in Game 3.

Look for the Kings' Darcy Kuemper and the Oilers' Stuart Skinner to bounce back here as well on Friday between the pipes.

Remember, LA allowed the second fewest goals in the HHL this year, conceding just 2.48 per contest. The Kings, though average only 2.61 GPG on the road this year, which was ranked 24th.

All of these situational factors collide here in Game 3, and I believe it'll lead to a very methodical overall pace/tempo, which will in turn lead to a very low-scoring defensive battle. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE GOY on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I think at this price that the Leafs offer great value to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Toronto won't be taking anything for granted, as it's only advanced out of the first round of the Playoffs once since 2004. 

The Leafs are getting the job done on both ends of the ice, having already blocked 50 shots in this series.

I really respect what the Senators did in the regular season, but they're now completely overmatched here in the Playoffs.

Great line value, the play is on the MAPLE LEAFS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Oilers/Kings.

After the high-scoring Game 1 outcome, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle and completely different tempo overall here in Game 2. 

LA let a big lead slip away as it held on for dear life in its 6-5 victory. 

The Oilers have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog against an opponent. 

Everything points to a much more defensive battle in Game 2 in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP PLAY on the OVER Devils/Hurricanes.

The Devils have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Game 1 stayed UNDER the number, but with each side pushing the pace, and the Devils desperate to try and earn a split, I expect a much higher-scoring outcome.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Oilers/Kings.

The Oilers finished third in the Pacific, and the Kings finished second.

LA won the four-game regular-season series by a score of 3-1. 

Edmonton averages 3.16 GPG, while allowing 2.87. 

LA averages 3.04 GPG, while conceding 2.48.

Look for these elite offenses to be the main storyline in this contest, as I expect this total to fly OVER the number well before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Sens/Leafs.

It's the battle of Ontario and I'm expecting some offense. Bookmakers are a little tentative I feel setting this O/U lines in the NHL Playoffs, putting 5.5 on every game so far.

I had the OVER 5 in the Blues/Jets game yesterday and the total landed on 8. The Stars/Avs game also eclipsed the posted number.

Ottawa went 3-0 somehow in the regular season series. The first two games went UNDER, but the third flew OVER in the Sens 4-2 win.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will be, I expect this total to blast past this lower number well before the final horn sounds.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Blues/Jets.

The Blues were 20-16-5 on the road, while the Jets were 30-7-4 at home. 

Each played drastically different styles down the stretch, with Winnipeg seeing the O/U go 1-9, and the Blues seeing it go 7-2-1 over their final ten games.

These teams played four times this year and the total went 1-3. 

St. Louis is a big underdog here, but I believe it'll push the pace and set the tone. The Blues saw the total go OVER in their final three games of the regular season, including a 6-1 win in their finale at home over Utah and I expect this offensive momentum to carry over.

Look for a faster pace in Game 1 to lead to a higher-scoring final outcome.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOW on the Calgary Flames.

I handicap the end of the season differently than I do the start and through the bulk of the regular season. 

I also handicap the Playoffs differently as well.

Regardless, here's a great situational bet on Friday night. 

Minnesota comes to town off consecutive OT victories at home, including a wild 8-7 overtime victory over San Jose last time out.

With a game at Vancouver, followed by a game at home vs Anaheim, the visitors could be caught tired and also "looking ahead."

Calgary has been trading wins/losses over its last seven games, and off a tight 4-3 OT loss at Anaheim last time out, I think it'll continue that pattern.

The bottom line here though is that this game absolutely "means more" to Calgary, which with four games remaining, sits in ninth spot in the West, five points behind the Blues and Wild. 

The Flames chances are slim, but earning two points here against the Wild is imperative, so this becomes a "must win" game for CALGARY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Knights/Flames.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of an offensive affair here in my opinion for a couple of different reasons.

Calgary is 2-1 in its last three, but it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Despite winning 4-1 over Anaheim here last time out, note that the Flames have still seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Calgary plays with the added incentive of revenge as well following a 3-0 loss on December 29th in Vegas.

The Knights will be hungry to return to form here after back-to-back losses, including a pathetic 4-0 loss at home to Winnipeg last time out.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will be in this one, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Wild/Rangers.

Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a really low-scoring, grind-it-out battle in the Big Apple this evening.

Minnesota just lost 3-2 in OT to the Rangers at home two weeks ago, and everything points to a similar battle here as well in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Wild/Devils.

Minnesota has played to three straight OVERs following a 5-2 home loss to New Jersey.

Note that the Wild have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row, and in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Look for the rematch in New Jersey to be much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Stars/Kraken.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle here on Saturday between these Western Conference opponents.

Dallas has won four straight, including back-to-back road games at Edmonton and Calgary. This is the first of two straight here between the clubs in Seattle and I believe that fatigue could be an issue for the visiting side in this one.

The Kraken broke a three-game slide with a 6-1 win here over Edmonton last time out. Seattle has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but looking back the Kraken have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Oilers/Kraken.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I feel that the conditions are now definitely correct for a much tighter and lower-scoring battle here in the Pacific Northwest.

Edmonton is off the 4-3 home loss to Dallas last night and it's seen the total go OVER in five straight. Note though that looking back the Oilers have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Seattle has lost three in a row following a 4-3 OT loss at Calgary. The Kraken play with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well after a 5-4 loss at Edmonton last week.

These teams are tired and they're hungry for a win. I say everything points to a classic lower-scoring UNDER once the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

My 10* BOOKIEKILLER is on the Winnipeg Jets.

These are two of the best teams in their respective conferences, and this could very well be a Stanley Cup Final preview.

That said, after four straight wins, including three straight at home, the Capitals now hit the road for two difficult games here in Winnipeg and at Minnesota.

The Jets are looking to rebound from a 1-2 stretch, most recently falling 5-3 here to Buffalo. 

The Jets are 25-6-4 at home and they beat the Capitals 5-4 in OT in the Nation's capital in early February. 

Riding the wave of emotion at home, I like the Jets to defend home ice and find a way to win this game.

Lay the price, the play is WINNIPEG.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Jackets/Islanders.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a lower-scoring defensive battle from Long Island on Monday for a few different reasons.

Columbus is 11-20-4 on the road, while the Islanders are 17-13-4 at home. 

The Jackets will be desperate so snap a six-game slide, most recently falling 6-3 at Pittsburgh. Previous to that Columbus had played to four straight UNDERS.

They play with revenge here after a 3-1 loss here in mid-January.

The Islanders have seen the total go OVER in four straight following a 4-3 OT home loss to Calgary last time out. Note though that New York has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five following a home loss as a favorite.

I say there are enough situational factors that tip the scales in favor of this being a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Canes/Kings.

Carolina is on an eight-game win streak. It plays with revenge here though following a 4-2 home loss to LA back in November, and note that the Canes have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent.

LA is rolling as well having won six of its last seven. The Kings have seen the total go UNDER in five straight following their most recent 3-1 win over Chicago, but note that the Kings have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will in this one, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Edmonton Oilers.

I think a great spot for the surging and revenge-minded Oilers. 

Winnipeg is 47-18 but it's off an awkward 6-2 loss at Vancouver and I believe it'll have its hands full again here against the aforementioned revenge-minded home side.

The Oilers lost 6-0 here to Winnipeg back in October, but note that Edmonton is 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent.

The Oilers have won three straight and just hammered Utah here 7-1 last time out.

At this price and considering the situational circumstances, I feel this to be the very definition of "great line value."

The play is EDMONTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BK on the OVER Utah/Edmonton.

Utah is off a 3-1 win at Vancouver, which came after a 4-2 loss at Seattle.

The Clubs plays with revenge here following a 4-1 loss here on New Year's Eve. 

Edmonton is off a 3-1 win at the Rangers. All four of its road games went UNDER the number. The last time it played at home though, it beat Dallas 5-4 in a high-scoring shootout, and everything now points to a similar pace here back at home vs. Utah in my opinion.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOW is on the OVER Kings/Wild.

These teams have been involved in plenty of lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating some offensive fireworks on Monday night in Minnesota.

The Wild are 37-25-5, but they're desperate now to break out of a 1-4 slide, most recently falling 5-1 to St. Louis. Minnesota plays with the added-incentive of "revenge" as well following a 4-1 loss at LA back in December, and note that the Wild have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent.

The Kings are 35-20 and they've won five in a row following a 1-0 OT win over Nashville last time out. LA has posted back-to-back shutouts, but I don't see lightning strike a third time here for the visiting side. 

Note as well that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row as well.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying well OVER the number before the final buzzer sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNISHER on the OVER Panthers/Islanders.

Both sides have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating more of a "shootout" here on Long Island on Sunday night. 

I had the OVER in the Panthers' 3-1 loss at Montreal. The Panthers have now seen the total go UNDER in seven straight. Note, though, that Florida has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 off a road loss as a -175 or greater favorite. 

The Panthers beat New York 6-3 at home back in early February, so the Isles play with revenge here.

New York has lost three in a row, and all three games have gone UNDER the number, but note that looking back, the Islanders have in fact seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

A great situational play here on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOM on the OVER Panthers/Habs.

Despite a 3-2 win last time out, their sixth straight UNDER in a row, note that the Panthers have still seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

They also play with the added incentive of "revenge" following a 4-0 loss to the Habs at home in late December, and note that Florida has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Montreal has lost three of its last four following a 5-4 OT loss at Seattle, but with two nights off to recoup, there's no reason not to think that the Habs won't carry that offensive momentum over here vs. the Panthers.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOW on the Red Wings on the PUCKLINE.

While I do feel that an outright win is a very real possibility, in the end I feel the value here is to grab the visitors on the puckline option.

Detroit just snapped a five-game slide with a 7-3 home win. It plays with revenge following a 2-1 home loss at the start of the month and, clearly, revenge is a powerful motivating factor.

Carolina has won five in a row, but with a four-game road trip starting tomorrow night in Philadelphia, will the home side finally get caught looking ahead?! 

I say, VERY POSSIBLY.

I see another really competitive battle here and because of that, the play is DETROIT on the PUCKLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUCKLINE PUNISHER on the Blue Jackets.

Las Vegas is a great team, but it's mediocre on the road, entering 14-12-4 away from friendly confines this season.

I don't think people realize how decent Columbus is this year. The Jackets are 31-25-8 overall, including 20-6-4 at home.

Vegas has lost two straight, while Columbus returns home from a 1-3 road trip. 

The Jackets won 2-1 in OT in Vegas in January, and everything points to another tight battle until the end here in Columbus in March.

Lay the price, the play is COLUMBUS on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOM on the OVER Sabres/Wings.

Buffalo is in eighth and Detroit is in seventh. The Wings are 30-28, but they come in desperate to snap a six-game slide.

They beat the Sabres 6-5 in a shootout in Buffalo back in early December, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

Note that Buffalo has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The Sabres are 25-32 after snapping a six-game slide with a quality 3-2 win over Edmonton.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will here, everything points to this total flying OVER the number well before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOY on the OVER Canadiens/Canucks.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheelhouse." 

Just a great "situational" play.

Montreal is 30-27-6 overall, but just 14-15-2 on the road. Vancouver is 29-23-11 overall, and 13-11-7 at home. 

Both teams though haven't been playing very well of late, and because of that I'm expecting a really wide-open offensive affair here on Tuesday night on the West Coast.

Montreal is off back-to-back losses to open up this road trip, including a poor 1-0 loss at Calgary last time out.

But it's Vancouver that plays with revenge following a 5-4 OT loss in Montreal back in early January.

The Canucks are off a 4-1 loss to Dallas and have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's also significant to note here as Vancouver has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will from the opening face-off until the final horn, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUPER DOG on the Vancouver Canucks.

I think that Vancouver offers great value in this spot for a couple of different key situational reasons.

No. 1: Dallas played and lost 5-4 in Edmonton just last night. The Stars battled back from a big deficit, but still came up short. Clearly, fatigue will be an issue here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

No. 2: The Canucks play with revenge following a 5-3 loss at Dallas back in January.

No. 3: Vancouver is playing well right now, off back-to-back wins.

As I said off the top, and considering the three points I've listed above, just really great value here on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is VANCOUVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oilers.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is a great "situational" play in my opinion.

Edmonton is off a tight 3-2 OT win over Montreal and is now second in the Pacific at 3-2. It plays with revenge here after a loss at Dallas at the start of the season.

This the final home game before a tough four-game Eastern swing, so that puts added importance on it for the home side.

Dallas is off four straight home wins and has a game at Vancouver on Sunday. 

Can anyone say letdown/look-ahead/trap-game?!

Considering all of the above situational factors working in favor of Edmonton, I feel that the OILERS could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this spot.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PL GOM on the Canadiens.

These teams are moving in opposite directions and I really feel that Montreal is really undervalued in this matchup.

The Habs are 30-26 after five straight victories. They've had two nights off to prepare and will feel confident after having already beat the Oilers 3-0 at home earlier in the season.

Edmonton is now 35-22 after losing six of its last seven. It's looked terrible since the Four Nations Cup.

With Dallas coming to town on Saturday night, will the home side get caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent? Very possibly!

The way the Habs are playing right now, they have a legit shot at winning this game outright. However, in what I anticipate will be a very competitive affair, let's grab the visiting side on the PUCKLINE option instead.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Rangers.

I had Washington in its 5-4 shootout win over Ottawa at home last time out. Clearly, the Capitals were lucky to win that game. Previous to that, they had lost three straight, so after giving up 15 goals over their last four games, it's safe to say that the Capitals are struggling right now.

New York has won four of its last five. It's coming off back-to-back 4-0 shutout victories. It plays with revenge after a 7-4 loss in the Nation's capital in early January.

Considering the recent form of these two teams, the overall situation and the price, I say that the RANGERS at home on Wednesday over the Capitals is for sure the correct call.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Predators/Bruins.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of an offensive battle in my opinion finally on Tuesday for a number of different situational reasons.

Nashville is just 21-32 and desperate to snap a two game slide, including a 4-0 loss at the Rangers last time out. Previous to that they fell 7-4 at the Isles.

Boston though lost 4-0 to Nashville at the start of the season, and note that the Bruins have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

The Bruins are off the tough 1-0 loss to Minneosta just the other night (I had the Wild in that one!) and they'll be super pumped here to break out of their current funk, while also avenging the earlier loss.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL GOW on the Capitals.

I'm going to lay the price here and expect the Capitals to snap their three-game slide.

The Capitals play with revenge as well after a 5-4 OT loss in Ottawa in late January, and note that Washington is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent.

Ottawa just snapped a five-game slide with a 5-3 home win over San Jose at home, but with a more "winnable" game at Chicago up next, I say the visitors let their mental guard down here and the more determined and revenge-minded home side steps up and takes advantage.

I think Washington will destroy the Senators here, and because of that I have no issues at all in laying this steeper price.

The play is on the CAPITALS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Wild.

I had a play on Boston in its win at Pittsburgh yesterday, but now here in the second game of the back-to-back, I'm expecting the Bruins to have a classic "letdown."

The Wild have lost three straight, and note looking back Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row.

The Wild also play with revenge following a 3-0 loss at Boston at the start of Februray, and note as well that Minnesota is 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.

All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

LAY IT, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON DIVISIONAL GOM on the Bruins.

With nearly 80% of the early public money on the home side, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian side.

Boston is now 27-25 after five straight losses. It's come out of the break and lost all three games. Note that looking back the Bruins though are 7-3 in their last ten following a five games or longer losing streak.

Boston plays with revenge as well here after a 2-1 loss at home to Pittsburgh back in November, and note that the Bruins are 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

My METROPOLITAN GAME OF THE YEAR was on the Penguins in their 5-4 OT win over Philly here last time out, snapping a four-game slide, but a predictable letdown feels imminent to me here for this "on again, off again" Pittsburgh offense.

The Penguins have allowed 23 goals in the four games since the All Star break as their defense has just completely fallen apart.

Look for the revenge-minded visiting side to take advantage.

The play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* METROPOLITAN GOY on the Penguins.

Here is a great situational play on the Penguins on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has lost three straight since the re-start, but note that looking back the Pens are 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight losses in a row.

Their last loss was a 6-1 setback at Philadelphia, and note that the Pens are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a divisional road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Philly is 2-0 since the re-start. With a couple of nights off before a tough game North of the border in Winnipeg, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a look-ahead position.

Great line value here on PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Hawks on the puckline.

The bottom line here is that I feel that Utah is completely overvalued here. Is The Hockey Club the better team?

Probably.

But note -250 and higher.

The Hawks are off three straight losses, but note that Chicago has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 6-3 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row.

Utah's 1-1 since the break, but with tough upcoming games vs. the Wild and Devils, I also think the home side gets caught "looking ahead."

Grab the 1.5 goals but don't be shocked by an outright either.

The play is CHICAGO on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Oilers/Lightning.

Edmonton has come out of the break and looked terrible defensively, falling 6-3 at Philly and then 7-3 at Washington.

The Oilers have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that looking back Edmonton has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Tampa beat Seattle 4-1 in its first game back. It's now won five straight. 

Edmonton beat Tampa 2-1 at home in December, and all signs point to another competitive and low-scoring battle as well here in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Rangers/Islanders.

The Islanders will be hungry to reverse their fortunes here. They came out of the break and fell 4-3 at home to Dallas.

The Isles have seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but that fact is important to note here, as looking back the Islanders have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Rangers lost 8-2 to Buffalo in their first game back, then they won 5-3 at Pittsburgh in their second. The Rangers have also seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back they've seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

With each team doubling down on the defensive end like I believe it will here, everything does indeed point to a defensive affair finally. So the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE REVENGE GOY on the Islanders.

This is a great "situational" play for three KEY reasons.

The first one is the "revenge" angle, as New York fell at Dallas 3-0 back in October. And note, the Isles are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.

The second reason is that Dallas is in action in a tough game in New Jersey on Saturday night, and fatigue will be an issue in the second game of the back-to-back.

And the third reason is the overall price here considering the situation/circumstances.

The play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOM on the OVER Canucks/Knights.

I love the way this one sets up to be more of a high-scoring "shootout," rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Vancouver is 26-18 after entering the break on a three-game win streak. The Canucks have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that looking back Vancouver has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Canucks also play with revenge in this one after a 3-1 loss here in December, and note that Van has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

Vegas closed the first half 33-17 after back-to-back wins.

Each team is poised for a big second-half push, and I expect these rested sides to come out fired up on the offensive end in their first game back from the break.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Leafs/Canucks OVER.

With this five-game NHL report, I'll be keeping my analysis for each pick very succinct. 

Toronto comes to the West Coast on a three-game road win streak. It just beat Seattle 3-1, but it plays with revenge here after a 3-0 home loss to Vancouver in mid-January, and note that the Leafs have seen the total go OVER in five of their last six in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent.

Vancouver has won three straight after a 2-1 OT win at San Jose last time out. Note though that the Canucks have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Knights/Bruins.

With this five-game NHL report, I'll be keeping my analysis for each pick very succinct. 

Vegas enters off a 3-1 win at New Jersey and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that looking back the Knights have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Boston's two-game win streak was snapped in a 4-2 loss at New York last time out.

This is the first game of the year between the clubs, but last year the Bruins here won by a score of 5-4. I predict a similar final outcome here as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Canadiens.

With this five-game NHL report, I'll be keeping my analysis for each pick very succinct. 

The Devils have lost two of three, including a 3-1 setback at home to Vegas most recently. 

Montreal though has lost six of seven. The Habs are now 25-24, but they also have a tough game on Sunday vs. the Lightning at home. They play with revenge here after a 4-3 OT loss here to New Jersey earlier in the year, and note that Montreal is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent.

Great value here on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is MONTREAL.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Lightning.

With this five-game NHL report, I'll be keeping my analysis for each pick very succinct. 

Tampa has won two in a row and three of its last four. It plays with revenge here after a 2-0 loss at Detroit just last week, and note that the Bolts are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. 

Detroit has won seven straight, but I say this unrealistic streak comes to an end here vs. the revenge-minded LIGHTNING.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Hurricanes on the puckline.

With this five-game NHL report, I'll be keeping my analysis for each pick very succinct. 

Utah has won two straight 3-2 OT contests, but with a game at Washington tomorrow night, I say the visitors get caught looking ahead here.

Carolina plays with revenge after a 4-1 loss at Utah in November, and note that the Canes are 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Carolina has lost three straight, so expect the CANES to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the 1.5 goals on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PL BOB on the Blackhawks.

I think just really get overall value on Chicago in this one. That said, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

The bottom line here is that I just feel that Nashville is vastly overrated. 

The Predators are just 18-27 after five straight losses. With a game at home on Saturday against Buffalo, will the visitors also get caught "looking ahead" here?!

Very possibly!

Chicago is only 16-31 after losing three straight. Most recently it was a 4-3 OT setback at home to Edmonton.

The Hawks lost 3-2 in a shootout in Nashville back in mid-January, and everything points to another tight battle here as well.

The play is CHICAGO on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Senators/Lightning.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe that the conditions are now correct for more of a defensive affair.

One of those losses came last time out in the Lightning's 4-3 in here. This is the second game of the back-to-back scenario between the clubs, and note that Ottawa has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent.

The Sens have played to four straight high-scoring affair, but with the visitors doubling down defensively like I believe they will here in this revenge spot, I say we have a 2-1 or 3-1 final here. 

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER Flyers/Utah Hockey Club.

Both teams are desperate for a win and while each has struggled to find the back of the net of late, I say its "all hands on deck" for these sides as they now push the pace this evening, pushing the total well OVER the posted number once it's all said and done.

Philadelphia is now 23-25 after losing five of its last six, including three straight. That includes THREE STRAIGHT shutouts. 

Note though that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

The Flyers have lost some talent of late, but despite that, look for this team to rally here and to push the pace from start to finish.

Utah beat the Flyers 4-2 in Philadelphia back in December, and I believe The Hockey Club can duplicate that offensive performance here at home.

Utah is 21-22 after five straight losses. Four straight have gone UNDER the number.

And while the majority expect another low-scoring defensive battle, I definitely am expecting the opposite.

So while most go one way, we'll go the other. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL SIDE on the Sabres.

Both teams have been playing well of late, but Buffalo has won three straight at home and I expect it to carry over that momentum here.

The Sabres have three nights off after this, so have nothing to look past to. They play with revenge after a 6-4 loss at Columbus earlier in the year as well.

Columbus had won three straight OT games before a 5-3 loss at Dallas last time out.

With a night off before a lengthy and favorable home stand, with games vs. The Hockey Club, the Rangers and the Blackhawks, I say the visitors are the ones caught "looking ahead."

A great situational play on BUFFALO, as I feel that the Sabres should/could in fact be favored by a lot more here.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the Senators.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you'd likely think I'd be on Nashville here.

It's lost four straight and really needs a win, and these are exactly the types of teams and situations that I keep my eyes out for.

The Predators also play with revenge a 3-1 loss at Ottawa back in December.

But I smell a trap here, set by the books, with nearly 60% of the early public taking the bait with the overvalued home side.

These teams are moving in opposite directions. As mentioned, the Predators have lost four straight, most recently a 3-0 setback at Pittsburgh. With three whole nights off after this, while Nashville get caught "looking ahead" as well?!

We're so accustomed to viewing the Predators as a "pretty good" team, and the Senators as a pretty terrible one.

Nashville is 18-26 this year, and Ottawa is 28-20 after winning four straight. That includes a 2-1 win over Toronto, a 3-1 win over Utah, a 5-4 OT victory over Washington and a 6-0 victory over Minnesota.

This is the start of an important four-game road trip for the Sens, with back-to-back games at Tampa after this (starting on Tuesday night), followed by a game at Florida.

These teams are moving in opposite directions and the SENATORS are the correct call in this spot and great overall value in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION GOM on the Kraken.

Sometimes I completely dissect a game and break down every individual player matchup and every angle possible, and other times I keep it really simple.

And that's the case for this one, as for a couple of different key situational reasons in my opinion.

Calgary is in action at home on Saturday night against a red-hot Wings team, and I expect fatigue to be a major issue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with a home game against the Leafs on deck after the game in Seattle, not only does the Sunday matchup set up as a letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead" position for the visitors (and when you add those two situational factors together you get "trap game.")

Seattle just broke a two-game slide with a 6-2 home win over San San Jose. The Kraken's offense has looked good of late and I expect the home side to take full advantage here.

In my opinion, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

The play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOM on the OVER Blues/Hockey Club.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to a much higher-scoring affair here finally on Sunday night in my opinion.

St. Louis enters off four straight losses, including a 5-0 setback at Colorado last time out. Note though that the Blues have seen the total fly OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a shutout road loss as an underdog. 

The Blues play with revenge after a 4-2 loss here in mid-January as well, and note that St. Louis has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent.

Utah is off four straight losses as well. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after a 3-2 OT loss at home to Columbus, but note that the Hockey Club has seen the total soar OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

Look for these two desperate divisional opponents to push the pace from start to finish and expect this total to fly well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Islanders/Lightning.

I love the way this one sets up to be a higher-scoring affair.

The Isles are now 23-20 after nine straight victories (all but one of those games went UNDER the number.) 

With the public overwhelmingly once again expecting another defensive battle, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian side.

This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs, but with a tough game at Florida tomorrow night, we can expect the visitors to really push the pace this evening.

The Lightning are 27-20 after a 3-0 win over LA last time out. The Bolts have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that looking back Tampa has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will here, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number well before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Blues/Avs.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this being a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion finally.

The Blues are 23-24 now after losing three straight. Note though that St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight losses in a row.

The Avs are 29-21, but they're off a 5-3 loss at the Islanders. Note though that Colorado has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This is the first matchup of the season between Central Division oponents, and everything points to a much tighter defensive battle than what Vegas is leading us to believe, making the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUCKLINE DESTROYER on the Stars.

Both teams playing really well, but I expect Vancouver to have a letdown here after back-to-back road wins as an underdog.

The Canucks have a night off before a game at home vs. Detroit, and I say they get caught looking ahead as well.

The Stars have won three straight as well. Dallas has a very manageable stretch of games here, and i'm expecting it to make the most of it.

The Stars won 3-1 in Vancouver the last time the teams played last year, but I anticipate an even bigger blowout win for Dallas in first matchup this season. 

DALLAS not only wins, but it wins BIG here. The play is on the PUCKLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the LIGHTNING.

I'm a situational capper, and as primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for the Bolts.

In fact, I feel that they could/should in fact be a much larger favorite. I like betting on motivated teams. The Lightning are now 26-20 after going just 1-4 in their last five, including back-to-back losses, most recently a 4-1 defeat here to Chicago as a -340 favorite.

Note though that Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine after a home loss as a -250 or greater favorite.

The Lightning also play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after a 2-1 loss at LA earlier in the month.

Finally, LA is in action at Florida on Wednesday, and fatigue will definitely be an issue for the visiting side in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

Run, don't walk, to place this wager, as I do anticipate that this line will climb ever higher.

The play is TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Canadiens.

This is a fantastic "situational" play in my opinion, with the Canadiens desperate to snap a three-game slide, while also catching the Wild playing the second game of a back-to-back, as they'll have their hands full on Wednesday night in Toronto.

Finally, Montreal plays with revenge here after a 3-0 loss at Minnesota earlier in the year, and note that looking back the Habs are 7-3 in their last four in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.

For all of the situational factors listed above, I'm on MONTREAL on Thursday.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Captials/Senators.

I love the way this one sets up to be a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle for a couple of different key situational factors that point to that outcome in my opinion.

Washington is 34-11 after its most recent 3-1 win at Calgary. The Capitals have now seen the total go UNDER in ten straight, but the worm turns and the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Ottawa is 26-20 and playing extremely well right now as well after back-to-back victories, most recently a 2-1 win over Toronto, before a 3-1 win over utah the following night.

The Senators enter with three whole nights of rest and while they've seen the total go UNDER in five straight, note that looking back Ottawa has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Senators play with the immediate revenge factor as well after a 1-0 loss here to Washington in the middle of the month, and note that looking back Ottawa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent.

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will from start to finish, everything finally does indeed point to a high-scoring "shootout." The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Flames.

I think this is a great spot for Calgary to pull off the upset at home.

Washington just had its six-game win streak snapped in a 2-1 loss at Vancouver. With one last road game at Ottawa after this though, I think the Capitals have another letdown here and get caught looking ahead.

Calgary just had its three-game win streak snapped in a 5-2 loss at Winnipeg, but the Flames are 4-1 in their last five as a home dog.

The Flames are the more motivated team here, and they're set up in a much better way to rebound here at home than their counterpart.

Overall, just unreal value here on what I believe should really be a "pick em."

Grab the value, the play is CALGARY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Golden Knights.

Just a great overall situational play. When you count up all the situational factors working in favor of Vegas, and then take into account the line, for sure I feel we're getting fantastic value on the revenge-minded home side.

Vegas is 30-15 but it's lost eight of its last ten, including back-to-back 4-3 losses at Dallas. 

After this stretch of poor play, the Golden Knights shouldn't need added motivation to play better here, but they also play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after they fell 4-3 in OT at Florida back in mid October (note that Vegas is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.)

Finally, note that Florida is in action on Saturday night with a road game in San Jose, so clearly fatigue will be a major issue here on the West coast in the second game of the back-to-back scenario as well.

All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value."

Lay the price, the play is LAS VEGAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Canadiens.

I bet "value." And here I think the Devils are WAY overvalued, and the Habs way undervalued.

New Jersey is 27-17, but it's just 1-4 in its last five. It did snap the four-game slide with a 5-1 home win over the Bruins, but with two days off between that game, followed by a back-to-back set at Philly and at home vs. the Flyers, it's a letdown/look-ahead position for the visitors as well.

Montreal is 24-20. It posted two straight victories over the Rangers and Lightning before falling 4-2 at Detroit against a desperate Wings side (I had Detroit in that one!), and it plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here after a 5-3 loss at New Jersey back in early November.

That was then though, and this is now. Montreal is playing like an entirely different team at this point of the season, and I think it's the correct value call here on Saturday night.

The play is on the CANADIENS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION GOM on the Jets on the puckline.

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Winnipeg to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion, which makes the PUCKLINE option the correct call in my opinion.

Utah is in action on Thursday night at Minnesota, and I expect fatigue to be an issue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 3-2 OT win at Colorado last time out. Previous to that the Jets fell 5-2 at Utah. Note that Winnipeg is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the 1.5 goals for the "plus-money" return on WINNIPEG.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Red Wings.

I've been just as surprised about Montreal as everyone else. I've road with the Habs a few times over the last month, but straight up as an underdog, and on the puckline option.

Now here though I'm finally expecting the over-achieving visiting side to take a step back.

With a tough upcoming home schedule vs. the Devils, Jets and Wild, this is a "look-ahead" postion for the visitors as well.

Detroit is now .500 after three straight losses, most recently a 2-1 OT loss at Philly. Note though that the Wings are 3-1 in their last four after three or more straight losses in a row.

They also play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 5-1 setback at the Habs on December 21st. 

All things considered, a really great price here on DETROIT.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SLAP-SHOT on the Kings.

The Panthers are off the win at Anaheim just last night, but note that they've struggled in this spot of late, going just 1-3 in their last four in the second game of the back-to-back.

At this price, LA offers great value in my opinion here at home.

The Kings are 25-14, but they won't be lacking motivation here as they've lost four of their last five.

But LA will have a couple nights off before a tough four-game road trip, and so that puts added emphasis onto this final home game and trying to take advantage.

Florida has the Sharks after the Kings, and then its in Vegas before then returning home to face LA again.

So not only is it a letdown spot for the visitors by playing the second game of the back-to-back, but it's also a look-ahead position (and when you add those two situational factors together, you get TRAP GAME!)

I do think it's a trap for Florida, and just a prime opportunity considering the circumstances and price here for LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PUCKLINE GOW on the Ducks.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is just a great "situational" play in my opinion.

Florida is 27-17 and it's lost three of its last five. It beat Anaheim 3-0 at home in its latest outing, so the Ducks do indeed play with "revenge" here.

The Panthers have a game at LA the following night, making this not only a bit of a "letdown" spot (playing the late game on the West Coast vs. the lowly Ducks who they just beat), but also a "look-ahead" position (LA is 25-13 overall.)

I'm not calling for an outright victory, but in a contest that I see being competitive late, I'm laying the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

The play is ANAHEIM on the PUCKLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Capitals/Oilers.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of an offensive shootout North of the border between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday in my opinion.

Washington comes in at 31-10 and off four straight wins after a 4-1 home victory over Pittsburgh. It's seen the total go UNDER in six straight, but note that the Capitals have still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Edmonton is 29-14 and it had its four-game win streak snapped last time out in a 3-2 loss at Vancouver. But that result is significant to note as the Oilers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five off a home loss as a favorite.

Look for these teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly well OVER the number before the final buzzer sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Stars.

Carolina is in action on Tuesday night at Chicago, so it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back.

With a night off before a much more winnable home game vs. Columbus, this also sets up as a look-ahead position for the Canes.

Dallas just snapped a two-game slide with a 4-1 win at home over Detroit. The Stars play with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well after a 6-4 loss at Carolina at the end of November.

Overall, I feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Wild/Avs.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is based on what I perceive to be a great "situation"

Minnesota is 27-15, but it'll be desperate here to snap a three-game slide, most recently a 6-2 loss at Division rival Nashville on Friday night. Note though that the Wild have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after three or more straight losses in a row.

Minnesota plays with revenge here as well after a humbling 6-1 loss at home to the Avs in early January, but note that the Wild have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a divisional home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Colorado is 28-18 and it's been trading wins/losses over its last nine games. After a 6-3 victory over Dallas last time out, it'll be looking to snap this pattern here. The Avs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that Colorado has in fact seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. With Winnipeg coming to town next, followed by a tough Eastern road trip, look for Colorado to buckle down defensively here at home vs. its division rival.

No matter which way you look at it, everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Oilers/Canucks.

These teams have played to several higher-scoring games of late, but everything points to more of a defensive battle finally in my opinion in Vancouver between these Pacific Division rivals on Saturday night.

Edmonton is 29-13 and it's won four straight. That includes a tough back-to-back most recently, winning 5-3 at Minnesota, and then 4-3 at Colorado on Thursday.

With two nights off, followed by six straight at home, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential "look-ahead" position. I believe Edmonton comes in fatigued here.

It's Vancouver that plays with revenge here after a 7-3 loss to the Oilers in early November. Note though that the Canucks have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent as an underdog.

The Canucks are now 19-15 after going 6-12 in their last seven. 

I'm expecting the Oilers to come out flat, the Canucks to come out determined, and for this total to ultimately fall well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION GOM the Canadiens.

Montreal is playing fantastically right now, and it plays with revenge here and I think this one sets up extremely well for the home side from a situational perspective. 

The Habs are 22-18 and have won five of their last six. That includes back-to-back road wins as an underdog. They do indeed play with revenge here after a 4-1 loss at Toronto in early November. 

With New York coming to town on Sunday, Saturday's contest takes on added importance for the home side.

Toronto is 28-16 after breaking a three-game slide with a tough 4-3 OT win at home vs. the Devils.

With a home game vs. Tampa up next, the temption to "look ahead" will be there for the visitors. Despite this being a long-time rivalry, this does indeed set up as a "look-ahead" position for the visitors.

Finally, with nearly 75% of the early public money quick to back the visitors, I'm going full-on contrarian with this pick, which is completely fine with me.

A great situational play on MONTREAL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON CONFERENCE GOM on the Habs puckline.

While I do think an outright win is a very real possibility, in the end the value in my opinion is to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance on the visitors.

Montreal is playing great right, and it plays with revenge. That's going to spell trouble for Stars' backers today in my opinion.

Note that the Habs are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent (fell 2-1 in a shootout at home to the Stars just a few nights ago!)

Montreal is playing its best hockey of the season right now and it catches the Stars at a good time in my estimation, as they return home from their five-game road trip after going 4-1. But with a game at Colorado on Saturday night, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a look-ahead position.

Being primarily a situational capper, this one has "trap" written all over it for the home side in my opinion.

The play is MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option.\

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOM on the OVER Flames/Blues. 

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a shootout here on Thursday in my opinion.

Calgary plays with the immediate revenge factor after falling here 2-1 on Tuesday. I had the Blues in that one!

But note that the Flames have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting a much faster-paced affair to lead to a much higher-scoring final result this time around.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIV TOM on the OVER Devils/Leafs.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting a wide-open shootout finally here North of the border on Thursday night. 

Just a great situational play overall in my opinion.

The Devils enter 26-15, but they'll be looking to bounce back from a 2-1 shootout loss at home to Florida. 

Note though that New Jersey has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five following a home loss as a favorite. The Devils have also seen the go UNDER in five straight now and note that New Jersey has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Leafs will be desperate to snap a three game slide. Note though that Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Habs/Hockey Club.

Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of an offensive shootout in my opinion for a couple of different "key reasons."

Key Reason 1: Montreal looks to rebound off a 2-1 shootout loss at Dallas. Previous to that it had won three straight and it's now 20-18. But note that the Habs also play with the added-incentive of "revenge" here after a 3-2 OT loss to Utah earlier (and note that Montreal has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent.)

Utah is 18-17 now after losing three of its last four. The Hockey Club has seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but with the visitors pushing the pace like I believe they will, and with the majority quick to back another low-scoring battle, I'm going full-on contrarian here and going the other way and expecting a high-scoring SHOOT-OUT.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH on the St. Louis Blues.

I base my selections on many different things. This particular one is based upon what I perceive to be a great "situation." This situation makes the Blues undervalued in this spot in my opinion.

And this pick essentially comes down to the fact that Calgary will be in action on Monday night in Chicago. The Flames are 20-14 and not only do they play better at home, but they also don't fare well in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

I say the Flames will be fatigued here.

The Blues are 20-20 after losing three of their last four. They'll have had two extra nights off after a 2-1 loss here to Columbus though on the 11th.

This is the start of two straight here between the clubs, and I believe the well-rested home side offers great value to take advantage.

Lay the price, that play is ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE REVENGE GOM on the Devils.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is primarily based upon the "revenge" factor.

New Jersey won't be lacking motivation here after losing five of its last six, most recently a 3-2 OT setback at New York.

The Devils play with revenge after a 4-0 loss at Tampa from back in mid-November and note that New Jersey is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.

Finally note that Tampa has a game on Friday at home vs. Nashville, and will be fatigued playing the second game of the back-to-back.

This line should/could in fact be a lot larger in my opinion.

The play is NEW JERSEY.

Good luck, NP