Sports Handicapper Nick Parsons's Picks & Predictions

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Mavericks.

For the most part, I'm a situational handicapper. And just for clarity, being a "situational" capper, to me anyway, means that the players rarely enter into my equation when I'm making my picks.

I only really pay attention if the top star players are missing from the line-up, in which case I'll usually steer clear of that particular game altogether. Although I also believe that a player's absence is reflected in the line anyway.

I'm looking at scheduling, motivational factors working for or against the team, line value, and other situational factors, though, for the most part.

And that's the case here for this pick. The Lakers and the Mavericks will be resting several starters, as this is the final night of games before the All-Star break.

So with all of that said, I do definitely love the way this one sets up for the Mavericks to sneak in under the radar and to post a solid cover. 

LA still holds down the top spot in the Pacific with an overall 32-21 record. The Lakers are 14-10 straight up and 12-11-1 against the spread at home. 

They lost 119-110 to the Thunder, and then the following night rested all of their main starters in a 136-108 home loss to the Spurs on Tuesday. 

Dallas, though, does indeed play with the added incentive of "revenge" here following a 116-110 setback at home to the Lakers as a four-point underdog last month.

The Mavericks are 19-34 overall, including 5-17 on the road. They're coming off eight straight, straight-up losses, and three straight against-the-spread setbacks.

Interestingly, though, Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a straight-up and against the spread home loss as an underdog vs. a Western Conference opponent. 

In the most recent matchup against each other, Cooper Flagg had 16 points, but Max Christie led all Maverick scorers with 24, while over on the Lakers side, Luca Doncic went on to lead all scorers with 33 points. 

The tale of the tape finds Dallas averaging 114.1 points per game this season, which ranks 23rd, while allowing 117.3, which ranks 20th, while LA averages 115.9 points per game, ranked 14th, while conceding 116.3, which ranks 18th.

Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring, but he got a big contribution from Naji Marshall last time out, albeit in a losing cause, as he finished with 31 points.

This is, though, a "double revenge" game for Dallas, as it lost the first matchup 129-119 back in November. 

As I mentioned, LA is expected to sit several starters, including almost assuredly, DeAndre Ayton, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Luka Doncic. 

So, this spread, obviously, reflects those absences.

The Mavericks, though, are playing strong until the final whistle, as evidenced by the way they closed out their last loss, slicing a 31-point deficit down to six points, before then losing by nine and being unable to cover the 8.5-point spread. And, despite the slow start, the Mavs wound up shooting 48.1 percent from the field and converting 32-of-44 free throws.

I had Dallas in that one, guys, but where the Mavericks came up just short last time, I believe they're primed now to potentially pull off a big upset.

Either way, as I said at the beginning, I think this is a great situational play on DALLAS, which I expect to play extremely hard in this revenge spot vs. a depleted Lakers side; the play is on the Mavericks.

Good luck, NP

This is a MONEY-BOMB BOOKIE-BUSTER on North Texas.

Being primarily a "situational" capper, I love the way this one sets up for the home side. 

Memphis is 12-11 overall, but just 2-6 SU and ATS on the road. 

North Texas is 13-11 overall, including 9-3 SU at home.

The Mean Green just snapped a four-game slide with an 81-58 win over UTSA and I think they keep that momentum rolling here at home in this revenge spot after falling 57-48 at Memphis on New Year's Eve. 

The Tigers are off back-to-back wins, but with a big non-conference game at 21-3 Utah State on Saturday night, I think the visitors could potentially be caught "looking ahead" here as well.

The bottom line for me on this one is that I believe it sets up as a great situational play on NORTH TEXAS.

Good luck, NP