Sports Handicapper Nick Parsons's Picks & Predictions

This is DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas Southern.

The 0-4 SU/ATS Texas Southern Tigers have played an extremely tough schedule, with road losses against Gonzaga, Texas A&M and Texas State, to go along with a 93-90 OT loss at home to Samford as a 2.5-point underdog.

Once again they're huge dogs here on the road, but they entered battle-tested and getting a ton of points and I believe they'll easily and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

Vanderbilt is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with the one ATS loss coming in its most recent 104-75 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff as 42-point favs. 

But with a neutral-court game vs. Western Kentucky next, followed by a game against SMU, I feel Vanderbilt is in a "trap" here with the Tigers.

Look for Vandy to go up early, to build an insurmountable lead, but then expect it to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing TEXAS SOUTHERN to earn the comfortable ATS cover.

Good luck, NP

This is a WESTERN CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Stars/Canucks.

These teams have been playing several higher-scoring games of late, but, for a number of different situational-based reasons, I believe each is finally going to play to a much more defensive battle here in Vancouver on Thursday night.

Vancouver is 9-10-2 overall, including just 3-5-1 at home, while Dallas is 12-5-3, including 6-1-2 on the road.

This is the second game of the year between the clubs, as somehow the Canucks managed a 5-3 win at Dallas back on October 16th. One trend that stood out to me regarding that victory is that the Stars have, in fact, seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

That dates back to last season, of course, but it's still a strong and relevant situational trend that supports us in this one.

Vancouver is just 1-4 in its last five, and one night after hammering Tampa Bay 6-2, it lost 8-5 at Florida. The Canucks come in having played to TEN STRAIGHT "overs." But now I think the masses are quick to back another high-scoring affair here for Vancouver, but I now feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. 

Dallas just had its five-game win streak snapped last time out in a 3-2 home loss to the Islanders. But in four previous victories, the Stars allowed a total of four goals combined. 

Overall, the Stars are averaging 3.2 goals per game this season, which ranks 12th. They don't get a lot of shots on ne,t though, as they average 25.8 shots per game, which ranks 26th.

Defensively, though, Dallas has been impressive in conceding just 2.8 goals per game, which ranks ninth.

Vancouver is averaging 3.1 goals per game, which is 17th, while conceding 3.7, which is 30th.

Jake Oettinger is 7-4-2 with a 2.91 goals against for Dallas between the pipes, while Kevin Lankinen is 4-5-2 with a 3.43 goals against for Vancouver.

Dallas will dictate the tempo, in my opinion, and I'm expecting that, along with all of the other situational factors I've listed, to combine to help drive this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a THURSDAY GOM on the Texans.

I think that the outright win for Houston is the most likely outcome on Thursday night, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Buffalo is 7-3 after its 44-32 home win over Tampa Bay. The Bills are 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four, but in their last road game at Miami, they fell apart in a humbling 30-13 loss as eight-point favorites.

Houston is a lot better than Miami right now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

With a more high-profile game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers next weekend, Josh Allen and the visitors could for sure be caught "looking ahead" on the short week here in Houston.

And that's going to be a mistake in my opinion, as Houston comes in playing extremely well. It's 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS over its last four. It's one loss was an 18-15 home setback to Denver. Last week it won 16-13 in Tennessee, but it wasn't able to cover the 5.5-point spread.

And I don't think that the Bills will be able to cover the 5.5-point spread here on the road either against backup Davis Mills, with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol for the Texans.

Mills isn't that big of a downgrade though. 

The Bills have yet to face a defense like Houston's this season either, and I think he unit will help keep this one competitive as well.

In fact, the Texans allow a league-low 16.3 points per game. Some other noticeable high-powered offenses that they've faced this year see them holding the Rams to 14 points and the Bucs to 20.

Allen has been a true dual threat QB for the Bills, as he has 2,456 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions, with 351 rushing yards and another ten major scores on the ground. 

In three games this year though Mills has completed 72 of 120 passes for 726 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. 

The Bills defense has been a weakness and this hungry Texans home side is going to have some opportunities. As I said, I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, but I'm grabbing the points with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP