Sports Handicapper Nick Parsons's Picks & Predictions

This is a 1% BK on the Red Wings.

Boston is just 12-14-7 on the road, while Detroit is 20-11-3 at home.

The Wings play with the added incentive of revenge here, though, following a 3-0 loss at Boston in January.

Great value on the revenge-minded home side in my opinion; the play is on DETROIT.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BAIL-OUT on Gonzaga.

I look for the BULLDOGS depth, overall superior skill/numbers and experience to ultimately prove to be the difference-maker in this one.

Lay the points with GONZAGA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NIT SUPER TOP-SHOCKER on UNC Wilmington.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, let's grab the points.

The play is on UNC WILMINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Louisville.

While I believe the outright win is the most likely outcome for Louisville here in this second-round matchup on Saturday afternoon versus Michigan State, my official call is going to be to grab as many points as you can.

Louisville enters at 23-10. The Cardinals beat SMU 62-68 as 6.5-point favorite in their opening CC Tournament game, but then they lost 78-73 to Miami as 1.5-point favorites in their second game.

Louisville had a week off and then faced USF in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite and they won 83-79. Now I expect them to carry that momentum over into this second-round matchup vs. the Spartans.

The Cardinals average 85.9 points per game, which is ranked 25th, while allowing 72.5, which is ranked 119th.

These teams last played in December, 2021, and the Spartans won 73-64 at home as four-point favorites.

Michigan State enters 25-7. The Spartans got upset in their first-round matchup of the Big Ten Tournament, falling 88-84 to UCLA as 5.5-point favorites.

Michigan State then bounced back with a 92-67 win over North Dakota State as 16.5-point favorites in the first round.

The Spartans enter averaging 78.7 points per game, which is ranked 131st, while allowing 67, which is ranked 26th.

The last time these teams played against each other in the NCAA Tournament was all the way back in 2015, and the Spartans beat the Cardinals in overtime to punch their ticket to the Final Four.

But Louisville is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017, and it's a first for Pat Kelsey as a head coach as well. 

Tom Izzo posted his 60th in the NCAA Tournament for Michigan State in the Spartans' victory over the Bison. 

Not to say that this will be a "cake walk" whatsoever, as Michigan State has one of the best guards in the nation in Jeremy Fears Jr. Fears averages 15.7 points per game on 44.5 percent shooting, and he's No. 1 in the nation in averaging 9.2 assists per game.

Fears, though, looked pretty ordinary in the first-round win, as he saw a streak of four consecutive games with 20-plus points come to an end, going only 2-for-6 from the floor. 

When we dig a little deeper into Izzo's team's defensive numbers, I think there's room for concern as well. 

The Spartans entered Thursday with the nation's 14th-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating according to KenPom, conceding 94.8 points per 100 possessions, but Michigan State's numbers of late have completely fallen off, as its adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions since the start of February ranks a pedestrian 66th in the country.

And so, during that stretch, the Spartans' opponents have converted 38.3 percent of their 3-point attempts and overall, Michigan State is ranked 332nd in 3-point rate defense at 46.3 percent.

The Cardinals' offense looked great in the win over USF and I think they'll, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire as well.

Grab the points, the play is on LOUISVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% BOOKIEKILLER on Michigan.

Michigan came up short in the Big Ten Tournament against Purdue, falling 80-72. 

It beat Ohio State 71-67 as a 13.5-point favorite, then Wisconsin 68-65 as a 12.5-point favorite, before eventually losing to the Boilermakers as a 4.5-point favorite.

The Wolverines then opened up the NCAA Tournament with a solid 101-80 victory over Howard, but once again they were unable to cover the massive 30.5-point spread. 

While Michigan was 4-1 SU down the stretch of the regular season, it was just 1-4 ATS over the span, including going 0-2 ATS. So the Wolverines are an uncharacteristic 0-6 against the spread over their last six games.

I'll admit that the Law of Averages is flawed, but I still love the way this one sets up for the Wolverines to not only post another solid win, but also finally a solid cover as well.

Michigan enters as one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 88.5 PPG, which is ranked 11th, while allowing 69.1, ranked 45th. 

The Wolverines enter the second round at 31-3 on the year, while their No. 9-ranked opponent in Saint Louis is 28-5. 

The Billikens got by George Washington 88-81 as 7.5-point favorites in their opening A-10 Tournament game, but then they fell 70-69 to Dayton as 4.5-point favorites in their second game.

They were 1.5-point underdogs in the opening round to Georgia, and they'd go on to cruise to a 102-77 victory.

Saint Louis averages 87.8 points per game, which is ranked 15th, while allowing 69.2, which is ranked 48th. 

These teams' offensive and defensive numbers are almost identical, but that's pretty much where the similarities end.

Dusty May is a talented coach in my opinion, and I think he'll be able to draw up strong defensive schemes to slow down the Billikens' ball-screen and motion offense. 

Saint Louis, though, ranks in the 96th percentile in half-court offense and 97th percentile in man offense. 

The Billikens got by Georgia in the first round, but the Bulldogs defense ranks in the 58th and 53rd percentiles in those categories, respectively. 

So, to say this is a major "step up" in competition would be a huge understatement in my opinion. 

And that's because the Wolverines rate in the 96th percentile in half-court defense and man defense. 

Michigan is also superb in defending ball screens, ranked in the 91st percentile. And those are exactly all of the things you need to slow down this Saint Louis offense.

It's almost like the Wolverines defense is tailor-made to slow down teams like the Billikens, in my opinion.

Saint Louis has talented players like big man Robbie Avila, who has 12 points and five boards in 28 minutes in the win over the Bulldogs, but note that the Wolverines rank in the Top 50 in rebound rates on both ends of the court, while also posting the fourth-best 2-point defensive percentage as well, overall. 

Saint Louis earned the first round Tournament win, but the Billikens have been showing signs of slowing down before that, as they opened the year with a 24-1 record, only to close 4-4 down the stretch. 

The Wolverines, though, have arguably the best player in the country on their team in Yaxel Lendeborg, and an interior enforcer in Aday Mara. 

There is also a major size mismatch between these teams. Michigan's starting five dwarfs the Billikens' starting five.

I really like Saint Louis, but I think its offense finally hits a proverbial "brick wall" on Saturday versus Dusty May's elite Wolverine defense.

Lay the points, the play is on MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP