Sports Handicapper Nick Parsons's Picks & Predictions

This is a BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER Oklahoma State/Northwestern.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I I think that fact has only driven this particular O/U line a few points higher than it normally would be. 

This is part of the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic in Chicago. 

Oklahoma State is 6-0, but this is the Cowboys first true "road" game of the year, even though this is a neutral site location. Look for those two factors to throw a minor "monkey wrench" into their offensive play today.

The Wildcats though are 5-1, and they don't have to make a long trip to this venue. 

Oklahoma State concedes 74.3 PPG, while Northwestern allows 80.2. 

The team that plays the best defense will come out on top here.

I expect a more methodically-paced affair to lead to a lower-scoring combined final outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a SIDE WINNER on the Bengals.

I'm not going to call for an outright upset or anything, but I do think that Baltimore is overvalued in this spot, and that when we take a deeper look at its recent "turnaround," it's not quite as great as it really seems.

The Bengals have been dealing with on-and-off-field issues since Day 1 this year, but now there's room for hope with star quarterback Joe Burrow returning from injury.

And so, as I say, I won't be telling you to sprinkle a little on the moneyline, but I do absolutely feel the value lies in the hungrier and healthier visiting side in this matchup.

The Bengals enter 3-8 overall, including 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road. 

Baltimore is 6-5 SU overall, including 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home.

The Bengals enter having lost four straight, but they were competitive in last week's 26-20 loss at home to the red-hot Patriots as 7.5-point underdogs. 

Cincinnati currently ranks 19th in the league by scoring an average of 22.5 points per game, while ranked 32nd on the defensive end by conceding 32.7.

Baltimore enters off five straight wins, including a 23-10 victory here at home over the Jets last weekend.

Yes, the Ravens have looked better on both sides of the ball since Lamar Jackson returned, but a closer look at their competition really does leave everything to be desired.

Since Jackson has returned, the Ravens have beaten Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the Jets last week. Clearly, that's not murderers' row. 

Overall, the Ravens average 25 points per game, which ranks tenth, while conceding 23.7, which ranks 19th.

When we look a little closer at Lamar, we find that he's rushed for 14 yards or fewer in three of his last games, and he's only gone over 200 passing yards just once in that span.

Clearly, this is not the MVP-level of play that we're accustomed to seeing from Jackson.

This is the first of two matchups between the division rivals, as they'll play again in Cincinnati in mid-December.

Last year, both games came right down to the wire, and could have gone either way, but the Bengals came out on the short end of the stick on each, losing one game by a single point and the other by three in overtime.

If you fancy taking a look at the total in this one, note that six straight between the division rivals have gone over the number, with last year's contests reaching 69 and 79 combined points.

Also note that the Bengals were without their other offensive star last week in Ja'Marr Chase, who was suspended, but who returns here along with Burrow.

Baltimore's weakness going into the season was its defense, and it has seemingly been resolved over their last four games, but again, look at the competition they've faced: Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel, JJ McCarthy, and Tua. The worst of the worst right now.

Last year, Burrow annihilated this Ravens secondary for a combined 820 passing yards in those two games. Jackson threw for eight TD passes against the Bengals last year, but as I noted, the MVP has taken a big step back in his performance since returning from injury.

Next week, the Ravens play the Steelers here, while Cincinnati is at Buffalo.

It's do or die for Burrow and the Bengals this week. IF they manage the outright win, then they'll still have a shot at competing for a division title.

But if they lose today, it's time to start planning for next season.

I like a rested Burrow to play a lot better than most expect, and for that to be more than enough to keep his team competitive down the stretch.

Hell, I've now convinced myself that Cincinnati actually does have a shot at winning this one outright, and that you may want to consider "sprinkling" a little on the moneyline.

But that said, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with CINCINNATI to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire!

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC TOY on the UNDER Navy/Memphis.

As being primarily a "situational" capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a "run-and-gun" shootout.

This is a big game for each side.

Navy is 8-2 SU, including only 2-2 SU on the road and 1-3 ATS away from friendly confines, while Memphis is 8-3 SU and ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS at home.

Navy will still, of course, play Army on December 13th this season.

The Midshipmen snapped a two-game slide with a 41-38 win at home over USF last time out as 9.5-point underdogs. Navy has now seen the total fly OVER the number in five of its last six.

Memphis has seen the total go OVER in four straight, but it's coming in off consecutive losses, most recently a 31-27 setback at East Carolina as a three-point dog.

That was two weeks ago, and now the Tigers are hoping to close out the regular season with their ninth win on Senior Night. But, even a win won't get them through to the Conference Title game. The Tigers did enter November as the top-ranked team in the Group of Five, but the two straight losses have now ended those hopes. And so that's a sixth year in a row that the Tigers will miss out on the Conference Championship game.

But if the Midshipmen win, then they still have a shot at a spot in the big game.

Navy managed a 56-44 win over Memphis last year as a 9.5-point underdog, so the Midshipmen will be coming in confident, especially after the key victory over the Bulls.

Memphis does have the two weeks off to prepare for this one, and more specifically for Navy quarterback Blake Horvath, who posted 400 yards and six touchdowns in last year's upset.

This season, Horvath has thrown for 1,290 yards and rushed for 986. 

If Memphis is going to win this one, though, and its Bowl game, it'll earn double-digit victories for a third straight year.

And to do that, the Tigers will be leaning heavily on their run game today. Quarterback Brendon Lewis did get some extra time to rest a twisted ankle over the last two weeks. He's key to their run game. 

The Tigers will look to limit the time that Navy and its option game, which means running the ball from start to finish, in this one.

Navy is still in line for a Conference Title, which would mean a spot in the College Football playoff.

As I said, there is a lot on the line for both teams. 

When taking into account the home-field advantage for Memphis, these teams really are evenly matched, I think.

The team that wins is going to be the one that protects the ball the best and wins the field position battle.

While these sides have played too many high-scoring games of late, including in their matchup last year, and while most are expecting another high-scoring outcome, I say the value has now for sure swung the other way as far as the total is concerned, a great "situational" play on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the CHIEFS on the MONEYLINE option.

Is the Chiefs' dynasty over?!

Maybe! But, I'd say that they've just played some tough competition to open the season and that last week's come from behind win over the Colts, a 23-20 OT victory, is just what the doctor ordered for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

If Mahomes was ever going to need a stage to let everyone know that he's still the best quarterback in the AFC and that the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City, this is it!

Dallas on Thanksgiving, and facing one of the worst defenses in the league.

Defensively, KC has been strong as well overall, allowing 18.3 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But now Mahomes faces a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in allowing 28.5 PPG. This is the type of secondary that Mahomes has been waiting to play all season, and a short week isn't going to help the unit.

And I think the veteran Mahomes will absolutely be slicing and dicing on Thanksgiving.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense has been great; they average 387.3 yards per game, which ranks 1st, while averaging 29.1 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But, the Cowboys haven't faced a lot of good defenses this year. I'll argue that this is for sure the best and most experienced unit they've faced so far.

Both teams are coming off important victories, as the Cowboys won their second straight, a come-from-behind win over division rival and defending champion Philadelphia.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot here now on the short week and facing the desperate, but well-coached and experienced Chiefs?

I smell a lop-sided blowout for Kansas City in this one, but I'm going to advise to play KC in the FIRST HALF. The Cowboys looked good in the second half last week, and I think Prescott will get out to another slow start on the short week as well on Thanksgiving.

So, I like the CHIEFS for the game, but the main pick is to take KC on the MONEYLINE in the FIRST HALF.

Good luck, NP

This is a THURSDAY NIGHT TOM on the OVER Chiefs/Cowboys.

A short week is going to lead to some higher-scoring games in my opinion. At least between these non-conference opponents anyways.

Two teams off victories, but in need of more wins after shaky starts collide in Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Kansas City enters at 6-5 overall, including just 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road. 

Dallas comes into Thanksgiving sitting at 5-5 overall, including 3-1 at home.

The Chiefs have lost three straight against the spread, but the gutted out the 23-20 OT win over the Colts last weekend to save their playoff hopes. They'd lost two in a row previous to that, both on the road, a 28-21 setback at Buffalo, followed by a 22-19 loss at Denver. 

So, the come from behind  for Patrick Mahomes and company last weekend was obviously huge. And now I think they'll ride that wave of emotion and confidence into another big performance here on the National stage. 

The offense for Kansas City remains a bright spot, as they average 376 yards per game, which ranks fifth overall, and score 25.2 PPG, which ranks ninth.

Defensively KC has been strong as well overall, allowing 18.3 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But now Mahomes faces a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in allowing 28.5 PPG. It's the secondary that Mahomes has been waiting to play all season, and a short week isn't going to help the unit, and I think the veteran Mahomes will absolutely be slicing and dicing on Thanksgiving.

Dak Prescott and the offense though have been great for Dallas, they average 387.3 yards per game, which ranks 1st, while averaging 29.1 PPG, which ranks fourth.

These teams haven't played since 2021, and the Chiefs won 19-9. 

Now four years later though, with each side pushing the pace like I'm expecting, look for this contest to post plenty of offense, and for this total to fly well OVER the number in the end.

Good luck, NP