Sports Handicapper Nick Parsons's Picks & Predictions

This is a BIG WEST TOM on the UNDER CSU Northridge/UC Davis.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a competitive conference battle to be a tighter and lowe-scoring defensive battle on Thursday.

Cal State Northridge is just 2-4 on the road, while UC Davis is 5-1 at home, but the Matadors won this game by a score of 65-62 as 4-point favorites here last year and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined outcome this season as well.

This number is much too high for a few different situational reasons in my opinion, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Penguins.

This is the first meeting between the clubs this year, but it's also the opener of a home and home set.

I think the PENGUINS offer great value here at home in the opener at this price.

Good luck, NP

This is an SEC TOY on the UNDER Ole Miss/Georgia.

We have an interesting matchup between conference rivals in the College Football Championship Quarterfinal between Ole Miss and Georgia on Thursday night. In my opinion, everything points to a much lower-scoring defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Both teams come in with identical 12-1 records.

These teams played earlier in the season, and Georgia won at home in a barn-burner by a score of 43-35.

Many believe we'll see an identical high-scoring and wide-open affair here in the Sugar Bowl, but I think there are enough situational reasons that point to this being a much tighter and more defensive battle in the rematch.

Ole Miss will, of course, be without head coach Lane Kiffin and instead have Pete Golding behind the bench. 

They will have their dynamic quarterback under center in Trinidad Chambliss, who had three total touchdowns in the first matchup and is a true dual-threat pivot.

There's been a lot of external doubt, though, about whether Chambliss has the ability to get the job done on the big stage.

Georgia is coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and I expect the Bulldogs to carry over that defensive momentum into this one.

The Bulldogs' Gunner Stockton completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 31 touchdowns this year, but he's also viewed as a possible weak link in these bigger type moments. 

Kirby Smart had this to say about his quarterback: 

“He’s gotten better. I mean, he’s the leader of our team. He’s the guy, the catalyst that makes us go with his legs and his arm, and the players play hard for him,” Smart said of Stockton this week. “I’m proud of his growth this season. He’s played some really good teams. He’ll play another good team in two days, and I have so much appreciation for what he’s done for our overall team with his leadership, his mindset, and his approach.”

To alleviate the pressure from each of their quarterbacks, it's safe to say that each side will be looking to establish the ground game throughout this bowl game.

Ole Miss got good news about running back Kewan Lacy, who went out in the first round win over Tulane, but has told reporters this week that he's been cleared and is good to go. Lacy finished ninth in the country in yards per game on the ground, and he had 21 rushing touchdowns.

Georgia gets the job done on the ground by committee. Stockton contributes a lot to the ground game with plenty of plays drawn up on every drive for him to scramble. And he has two other strong backs in Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens.

Defensively, each team shines as well, with Georgia posting the fourth-best rush defense in the FBS with 79 yards allowed per game, while Ole Miss conceded 148 per contest.

These are two very defensive-minded coaches as well, with their overall philosophies.

Each team tightened up down the stretch as well, as over their last nine combined games, the UNDER is 8-1. 

In fact, these defenses combine to concede just 35.2 points per game this year.

The team that looks after the ball the best and wins the field position and time of possession battle is going to come out on top this time.

Yes, the first game flew well past the posted number, but for all of the situational and trend-based reasons I just listed, everything points to the UNDER as being the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP