Sports Handicapper Ricky Tran's Picks & Predictions

My 8* play is on the Patriots.

KC beat Oakland 40-9 last week, but I think the Chiefs will have their hands full with a Patriots team coming off a listless 28-22 setback to the Texans. 

The annual parade of Tom Brady nay-sayers is out in full force now that the Pats' offense has been pretty lacklustre over the last month or so. 

Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor today. 

Key Trends:

- KC is only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records (including only 2-3 ATS this season.)

- NE is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of seven points or less.

The verdict: This is a spot in which Brady and New England have dominated in over the years and with their backs against the wall, I look for them to deliver in front of the home town crowd; lay the short points!

My 8* play is on the Bengals.

The Bengals would love nothing more than to play spoiler on the Browns here, as another loss will essentially be the nail in the coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. Cleveland is 5-7 and Cincinnati is 1-11. 

The Bengals destroyed the Jets 22-6 last week for their first win of the year and after that impressive performance on both sides of the ball, I look for them to carry that momentum over here. 

Last week the Browns lost 20-13 to the Steelers and I think they struggle once again with consistency on both sides of the ball. 

Key Trends:

- The Bengals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog (including 4-1 ATS this season.)

- The Browns are only 9-11 ATS in their last 20 at home (including only 2-3 ATS this year.) 

The verdict: I like Bengals' veteran QB Andy Dalton to severely outplay Browns' QB Baker Mayfield and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to the wire; grab the points!

My 10* play is on the New Orleans Saints.

The 49ers are now 10-2 after falling 20-17 to Baltimore last week. San Francisco faces a 10-2 Saints team which enters off a big 26-18 victory over Atlanta. 

In the early going all the talk has been about the 49ers' defensive play, which has been pretty good for the most part this season. But note that the Saints are actually fourth in the league in sacks with 40 so far this year. New Orleans has also scored at least 26 points in ts last three games, with QB Drew Brees throwing for 726 yards and seven TD's in that span. 

Key Trends:

- The 49ers are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off a road cover where it lost SU as an underdog.

- The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a road victory (including 3-1 ATS this year.) 

The verdict: I think San Francisco stumbles in this difficult road venue; lay the short points!

My 8* play is on the Houston Texans.

Houston is 8-4 and still looking for more as it tries to lock down a playoff spot. Denver is coming off a 23-20 win over the hapless Chargers, but at 4-8 it literally has less than a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Texans are firing on all cylinders in winning four of their last five. QB DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are both ranked in the Top 5 in their respective positions. The defense catches a break here as well facing a Denver unit which has struggled with offensive consistency all year.

Key Trends:

- Denver is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 on the road.

- The Broncos are only 7-9 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with winning reocrds.

The verdict: With tough upcoming games to end the year, this is a contest which the Texans can ill afford to look past. Lay the points, expect a rout!

My 10* play is on the Ravens/Bills under.

The Ravens have won eight in a row behind the great play of QB Lamar Jackson and a steadily improving defense. The Bills are also putting together an exceptional season, behind a stellar defense and an improving offense. There are many story lines to this contest, but I think that in the end, this one will fall below the posted number. 

Key Trends:

- The Ravens rank fifth in the league in points allowed with just 18.2.

- Buffalo has given up just 38 points over its last three games.

The verdict: Both teams depend on the run to score, with Baltimore ranked No. 1 and Buffalo ranked No. 5. Five of these team's last seven in the series have fallen under the number and everything points to another low-scoring battle on Sunday; play the under!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Hawks/Rams.

What's the first thing you think about when you look at these two teams? Clearly it has to start with each side's QB. LA turns to Jared Goff, who took the Rams to the Super Bowl last year and who will need to have a big day if his team is to win here. The Hawks turn to Russell Wilson, who has won a Super Bowl and is one of the favorites to win the MVP this season. 

Each team has an underrated defense though. The Rams allow 245 passing yards per game and 104 rushing. The Hawks allow 281 passing yards and 99 rushing yards per contest. 

Key Trends:

- Seattle has interestingly seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after playing on Monday Night Football.

- LA has seen the total go under in its last five games in revenging a loss where an opponent scored 28 or more points.

The verdict: This is a big game for both teams. If Seattle wins, it clinches the division. The Rams HAVE to win to stay alive. I think each team tries to control the tempo of this one and put an added emphasis on ball control. These styles of contests invariably lead to lower-scoring games and that's exactly what I expect here; play the under!

My 1* FREE PLAY is on the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are 10-2 and the Bills are 9-3. The Patriots seem to be "dead in the water" right now, so to say this is a "big game" for these two teams would be an understatement. So far though every "great defense" which has faced the Ravens and Lamar Jackson this year has come up short and I do indeed think that'll again be the case this weekend. Josh Allen has admittedly looked a lot more comfortable in directing Buffalo's offense over the last month, but he now faces one of the hottest defenses in the entire league this week.

Key Trends:

- Baltimore is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 on the road (including 4-1 ATS this season.)

- The Ravens are already 3-1 ATS this year following a home victory.

- Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a road victory.

The verdict: Baltimore has won three of the last four matchups vs. Buffalo, including a 47-3 destruction last September. I'm not calling for a blowout of that proportion, but in my opinion everything does point to a comfortable Ravens cover on Sunday. Consider laying the points in this one!