Sports Handicapper Scott Rickenbach's Picks & Predictions

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA