Stephen Nover NFL Picks Archive

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-09-25	Chiefs v. Eagles +1.5	Top	22-40	Win	100	301 h 6 m	Show
I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games. I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders. Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense. Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown. The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener. Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line. Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9. This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog. That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove. Super Bowl Props Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup. It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value. The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game. Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs. Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games. DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns. I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes.
01-26-25	Bills v. Chiefs -120	Top	29-32	Win	100	111 h 39 m	Show
At some point the Chiefs' luck is going to run out. I just don't believe it's going to happen here. So I'm laying a short price on the money line expecting Kansas City to once again win. That simple. Yeah, Buffalo defeated Kansas City at home during the regular season. But this is the AFC Championship matchup, a game the Chiefs have now reached seven straight years. Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 in the playoffs. This includes a 3-0 mark against Josh Allen and Buffalo. The Chiefs got past the Bills, 27-24, in the divisional round last season. That game was at Buffalo, too. Now the Chiefs get the Bills at home, where they are unbeaten, and have an extra day's rest. It's not just situation and history why I favor the Chiefs. Kansas City has the superior defense. The Chiefs are finally healthy and Mahomes' weapons are better than Allen's, particularly at tight end with Travis Kelce. Only three teams surrendered fewer points per game than Kansas City. Buffalo ranked 12th in scoring defense, 17th in yards allowed and 24th in pass defense. The Bills relied on an NFL-best plus 24 turnover differential. But if the Bills are not coming up with takeaways their defense is far more vulnerable than Kansas City's. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over during their last eight games. They tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways. Buffalo was plus 3 in takeaways/giveaways against the Ravens at home last week yet still needed a dropped Mark Andrews pass on a wide open two-point conversion to likely avoid overtime. Prop: Saquon Barkley: Under 128.5 yards rushing (William Hill) Saquon Barkley led the NFL in rushing with 2,005 yards. He did it in 17 games. That's an average of 117.9 yards a game. Washington has a below average run defense. So on the surface, Barkley very could go Over this rushing figure. But I'm banking on the Commanders selling out to stop Barkley knowing he's been the one carrying the Eagles not Jalen Hurts and a broken passing game. Hurts is averaging only 129.5 yards passing per game in the Eagles' two playoff games. Hurts has only thrown for more than 131 yards passing once in his last five games when he's played the entire game. Offenses take what the defense gives them. That would be moving the ball via the pass for the Eagles in this matchup.
01-19-25	Ravens v. Bills UNDER 51.5		25-27	Loss	-108	91 h 31 m	Show
Most are predicting a high scoring game between the Ravens and Bills. Understandable given the MVP-caliber seasons Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have had, perhaps the finest of their great careers. I see this game differently. Touchdowns are not going to come so easily. Let's start with the problems the Ravens may encounter. Only once have the Ravens met a top-10 defense outdoors. That was against the Steelers and they scored a season-low 16 points. The wind chill factor for this matchup is expected to be in the low teens to single digits with possible snow showers. Buffalo's defense is top-12 caliber and opportunistic with 16 takeaways, which ranked seventh in the league. True, the Ravens buried the Bills, 35-10, when they hosted them in Week 4. The temperature was 68 degrees in that game. The Bills were missing three important defensive players - linebackers Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson. All three are expected to play here. Milano, slowed by injuries much of the season, looked like his All-Pro self against the Broncos last week. Baltimore could be minus its top wide receiver, Zay Flowers. He's been out with a knee injury. Sean McDermott is a sharp defensive coach. Expect the Bills to fully concentrate on stopping Derrick Henry. I'm not convinced Jackson can be dominant in this type of weather condition if he has to carry the Ravens' offense, especially if he doesn't have his speed guy and zone-breaker, Flowers. Turning to Buffalo's offense. It had its worst game of the season against the Ravens being held to a season-low in points with 10 and yards with 236. Allen didn't have a passing or rushing touchdown for the only time this season. He was sacked a season-high three times. What has to be scary for the Bills is that the Ravens' defense has gotten much better since that late September game. Baltimore has given up an average of 11.5 points in its last five games. This span includes two games against the Steelers and holding the Texans scoreless on offense. The Ravens rank No. 1 against the run. Aside from dual-threat Allen, the Bills don't have a skill position player of the star variety.
01-19-25	Rams v. Eagles -5.5	Top	22-28	Win	100	128 h 43 m	Show
It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example. Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles. This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain. I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate. Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts. The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants. Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5. The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory. Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.
01-18-25	Commanders +10 v. Lions	Top	45-31	Win	100	29 h 30 m	Show
Jayden Daniels and an improved defense are why I believe the Commanders can stay within single digits of the Lions. Daniels certainly has good numbers. But he transcends numbers. His dual threat talents and intangibles make him a formidable foe. He has led five fourth-quarter comebacks. Only once this season did the Lions encounter a quarterback of similar superstar ability. That quarterback was Josh Allen and he helped Buffalo put up 48 points and 559 yards of offense. Multiple injuries have taken a toll on Detroit's defense. During Weeks 15 to 17, the Lions surrendered an average of 361.6 passing yards. From Week 13, the Lions defense ranked 28th in the metric EPA (expected points added). Detroit has become less opportunistic coming up with just five takeaways during its last seven games. Stopping Sam Darnold in Week 18 does not equate to being able to stop Daniels. Washington's defense has gotten better with cornerback Marshon Lattimore and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen back in the lineup after being out for long periods because of injuries. Lattimore is an elite cornerback, while Allen is the Commanders' top defensive lineman. Frankie Luvu gives the Commanders the best linebacker on the field. The Commanders have bad season numbers on defense. Those are irrelevant now, though, with Lattimore and Allen in the lineup. The Buccaneers found this out the hard way last week when the Commanders held them 20 points, which was 9 1/2 points below their season average. I like Detroit's special teams. They are above average. Yet I give a checkmark to the Commanders' special teams. Washington ranked in the top-10 in kick-and-punt return average and placed second in punt return defense. Tress Way is one of the best punters in the NFL. This is the most points the Commanders have received all year. This shows the marketplace still hasn't caught up to Daniels and Washington. So I'm a buyer.
01-12-25	Packers v. Eagles UNDER 45.5	Top	10-22	Win	100	24 h 35 m	Show
These teams put up a combined 63 points in their first meeting this season. That was back on opening week in Brazil. I'm not expecting anything close to that this time around. The Eagles improved themselves to the point where they could be the best defense in the NFL. Philadelphia gave up the fewest yards per game, ranked No. 1 in pass defense and second in scoring defense holding foes to 17.8 points a game. The Eagles gave up fewer than 21 points in eight of their last nine games. Jordan Love may not be 100 percent because of a sore elbow. He'll be without his top deep threat and best bubble sweep runner, Christian Watson. Only two teams played at a slower tempo than Green Bay. I envision the Packers playing a conservative game running Josh Jacobs plenty of times mixed in with short passes. Jalen Hurts received concussion clearance as expected after sitting out the past two games. What's not good news for the Eagles is Hurts has completed one pass in his last three games. He figures to be rusty. You have to wonder if the Eagles will still employ their highly effective tush push so often with Hurts now? The Eagles play at the eighth-slowest pace in the league. Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defense. Now the Packers are better coached defensively with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry as defensive coordinator. The Packers were fifth in fewest yards allowed, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in run defense. They also had the third-most takeaways.
01-11-25	Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 43.5	Top	14-28	Win	100	104 h 26 m	Show
You won't find a more fierce NFL rivalry than these two AFC North Division teams. You also won't find two teams more familiar with each other. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens offense draws the publicity. Quietly, though, Baltimore's defense has become elite. The Ravens have yielded an average of only 10.7 points in their last four games. They rank first in run defense and No. 2 in sacks with 54. Pittsburgh is averaging just 14.2 points in its past four games, failing to step up against better competition. The Steelers lack elite running backs. Their one above average receiver is George Pickens, and he's untrustworthy and pouty. Russell Wilson has hit a wall. The 36-year-old Wilson has been far less effective down the stretch averaging 171 yards passing in his last five games. The Steelers have maintained a top-10 defense. Baltimore could be without its best wide receiver, Zay Flowers. There were only 34 points scored in the team's first meeting this season. There's also a chance of snow.
01-05-25	Vikings v. Lions -2.5		9-31	Win	100	45 h 42 m	Show
I give all the credit in the world to the coaching staff of the Vikings and to their quarterback, Sam Darnold. If it weren't for phenomenal years from Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, Darnold would be in the MVP discussion. But we've reached the stage where it's time to get off the Vikings. They couldn't beat the Lions at home and I don't see them winning at Detroit. The Vikings have been extremely fortunate. They've won nine games by one score with six of their victories coming by a combined 16 points. That's an average winning margin of 2.6 points a game. The Lions are 12-1 in their last 13 games. This is their best team since the 1950's. As solid as Darnold has been, I would take Jared Goff at home over him. Detroit also is getting healthier on defense. Given this choice with a low point spread, I'll back the Lions.
01-05-25	Chiefs +10.5 v. Broncos	Top	0-38	Loss	-105	43 h 51 m	Show
All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015. Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself. Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions. Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.
01-05-25	Saints v. Bucs OVER 43.5		19-27	Win	100	38 h 41 m	Show
You have to give the devil his due. Baker Mayfield has put together another great season. Led by Mayfield, the Buccaneers have become an offensive juggernaut ranking in the top-four in scoring, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Tampa Bay has scored 30 points or more in half of its games. This includes a wild, 51-27, win against the Saints. New Orleans isn't going to stop the Buccaneers this time around either. The Saints rank 30th in yards allowed and run defense. The Buccaneers are going for an NFC South Division crown. They are not going to let up. Mayfield is going to do his best to see that Mike Evans reaches his incentive clauses in his contract no matter how many points the Buccaneers are leading by. Spencer Rattler has gotten more experience since that 51-27 loss, which was his first NFL start. The Buccaneers rank 29th in pass defense and have only seven takeaways. Their defense is way down from past seasons.
01-05-25	Texans +1.5 v. Titans		23-14	Win	100	36 h 16 m	Show
Yes, the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC. But they are not playing well. The Texans would rather not enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. So their starters may play longer than some expect. If the backups do play the Texans have one of the better backup quarterbacks in Davis Mills. Houston also has had extra rest and preparation time having last played on Christmas Day. I'd rather have Mills than either Tennessee quarterback, Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. The Titans are poorly coached, their defense has shown signs of quitting and their quarterback play has been awful. The Titans made NFL history with their 2-14 against the spread record. The Titans have lost five in a row. They are 1-7 in their last eight games with that one victory occurring against the Texans. So Houston also has revenge motivation. The Titans would get the No. 1 overall draft pick if they were to lose and the Patriots beat the Bills.