Sports Handicapper Will Rogers's Picks & Predictions

The set-up: Edmonton and Toronto were the two favored teams in the North Conference. The Oilers have been lacklustre in the early going, but they moved to 2-3 after taking the first game of this two game set by a score of 3-1. The Oilers have been inconsistent from game-to-game in the early going, so it's hard to trust that they're going to bring the same energy here after already getting a win in the first game.

The pick: The goaltenders are a "wash" here in my opinion. The overall situation favors the Leafs after the first loss though, as note that they're 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two-goal in-season home-loss to an opponent. Consider TO on Friday.

This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The set-up: Boise State picked up the 73-51 blowout win over Fresno State on Wednesday. I'm not predicting an outright revenge upset or anything here on Friday, but I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Broncos are the better team in every respect, so if we were to go only off of these team's records and offensive and defensive numbers, then of course most would instantly gravitate towards the better team. 

The pick: But there's a lot more than just looking at numbers when gambling on sports. This spread is much too large in my opinion, as I expect the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to a couple days off, before a tough two-game road trip at CSU. Fresno State is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. This spread is too large, the play is on the visiting side.

This is a 10* MW GOM on Fresno State.

The set-up: Brooklyn has seen the total go "over" in ten straight. That ihncludes Cleveland's 147-135 double OT victory here two nights ago. The Nets have all the talent in the World, on the offensive end that is. If Brooklyn is unable to play any defense, it simply won't be going very far in the playoffs. The Lakers are fantastic defensively and that was once again proven on the road in Milwaukee last night. The Cavaliers have seen the total go over in two straight, so that also makes me lean heavily to the under here. 

The pick: If going by "numbers/stats/trends" alone, of course everything points to a high-scoring game here. These teams have played to multiple "overs," but note that Cleveland is in fact still the No. 1 defensive club in the league. Look for these incredibly lop-sided numbers to correct themselves right away here as this total stays well "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Nets/Cavs.

The set-up: Pittsburgh dropped its first two games, but it then won its second two. All four Penguins' games have flown over the posted number this year, but I think that this game vs. the Rangers, who hit the road for their first trip away from friendly confines, sets up as more of a defensive affair. The Rangers are off a 4-3 loss to the Devils. Alexandar Georgiev posted a shutout in his first start, but allowed four goals in that setback. New York will be especially focussed here, as dating back to last season it has just one road win over its last seven.

The pick: Pittsburgh's mortal enemy is Washington, and after two straight victories over it, including a 5-4 shootout win in the second, I think a predictable mental letdown is in the cards here vs. the lowly Rangers. Let's not over-react to early offensive and defensive numbers, but instead use our heads and look at the situation as the way we base our selection today. I'll finally point out as well that the Pens have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring four or more goals in an overtime or shootout in their previous outing. This number is high, the plays is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Rangers/Penguins.