Sports Handicapper William Burns's Picks & Predictions

(#815) Kennesaw State vs. (#816) Sam Houston State Bearkats | OVER | . 

I won with the "over" in Kennesaw State in yesterday's game against Western Kentucky (SBC Tourney TOY) and I'm back on another Owls' "over" here this afternoon. If you didn't read the analysis in the selection yesterday, Kennesaw ranks as the 19th fastest playing team in the country, via. KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. The Owls also love to crash the offensive glass and shoot free throws at the 5th highest rate in College Hoops. Not only that, but they allow the second most free throws per game as well. 

Looking at Sam Houston State, it's another program that enjoys pushing the pace and playing up-and-down instead side-to-side. Meaning, they like to attack the hoop or draw up plays, instead of passing back and forth across the top of the key until they find a shot. SHSU also ranks in the top 40 in tempo. Something different about the Bearkats is that they shoot the three ball extremely well, at 37.9%. Expect another high scoring CUSA affair. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-84 SHSU.

(#33) Los Angeles Kings @ (#34) New York Islanders | UNDER | . 

These teams matched up not long ago and it finished in a pretty high scoring contest. I don't believe that this one will be as high scoring. On the year, the Kings have been going "under" quite often, especially against foes from the Eastern Conference. As a matter of fact, the "under" is 10-3 in those games played on the road this season. 

Both teams are bottom ten in goals per game as well as top 10 in goals allowed per game this season. Prior to the outlier in their last game, these teams had seen four straight games feature five goals or less. I'm expecting another low scoring contest on Friday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 2-1 Kings.

(#826) Alabama Crimson Tide | ATS | . 

After finishing the season in style, Alabama's been preparing for postseason ball over the past week. Now, I know that the Tide were probably expecting to play UGA in this matchup. And.. for a lot of teams, this could probably be a letdown spot given how bad Ole Miss was during the regular season. But, I don't expect this Bama team to struggle on Friday. This is a team that went into Mississippi and dominated the Rebels by 19 points during the regular season. Alabama plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, combining that with the 3rd best offensive efficiency nationally. Once they find their groove this evening, look out. 

For Ole Miss, it's had an epic couple of days to even win two games in the SEC Tournament so far. I mean, this is a team that lost 13 of their last 14 games to finish the regular season. The coaches and players of Mississippi are probably saying that the job isn't finished yet. But, in reality, this has already been a successful tournament, as the Rebels can fully start to prepare for next season. Given the differences in pace, I don't believe that the Rebels are going to be able to hang with the Tide for 40 minutes. Even if this game remains closer at halftime, expect a second half rout and another dominant Alabama win as a result. 

Burns' Prediction: 99-74 Bama.

(#306523) Southern Jaguars | ATS | . 

During the regular season, these two teams owned the same conference record. Florida A&M got the higher seed on a tiebreaker and now, the two will square off for a chance at the SWAC final. The Rattlers did finish the year quite well, winning four straight games (five now.) I'm not sold on their offense though. Ranking 341st in offensive efficiency and turning the ball over at a bottom 10 rate in the country, I don't see them doing too well in a big time game like this. 

Southern, on the other hand, seeks revenge after dropping both games against Florida A&M during the regular season. The Jaguars are significantly better offensively and have been shooting the ball lights out over the past couple of games. As a matter of fact, they've gone over 60% from 3pt land in consecutive games now! In the last game, Southern had a massive meltdown out of halftime. I don't expect that to happen on Friday. Give me the Jags to move on. 

Burns' Prediction: 81-71 Southern.