What Is Contrarian Betting? Contrarian betting is a disciplined wagering approach that involves betting against the public, rather than following the most popular side or total. At its core, the strategy is rooted in how sportsbooks actually operate. Oddsmakers do not post lines as predictions of the final score. Instead, lines are designed to attract balanced action on both sides. To achieve that balance, sportsbooks routinely shade lines toward public biases—most notably favorites and overs. Betting percentages, particularly the percentage of tickets, reveal where the public is leaning. Contrarian bettors look for opportunities where the market has been skewed by that bias and value emerges on the less popular side. How to Calculate Contrarian Betting Contrarian betting is most effective when it is calculated correctly. A few principles are essential: Percentage of Bets Over Percentage of Money The most useful data point is percentage of bets, not percentage of...

If you’re a sports bettor—whether you're just starting out or have been in the game for years—understanding the nuances of betting lines can feel like deciphering a foreign language. When I first entered the world of sports betting, I quickly learned that the lines set by oddsmakers are not just numbers on a screen; they are messages waiting to be decoded. Here's a journey through some key insights that have shaped my betting strategies and could enhance yours too. The Dutchman’s Wisdom: Linesmakers Are Telling You Something One of the first lessons I learned was from a seasoned bettor referred to as “The Dutchman.” He often said, “Linesmakers are telling you something.” This phrase stuck with me because it highlights an essential truth: oddsmakers aren’t merely setting lines based on team statistics or public opinion; they’re crafting them to predict and influence betting behavior. The Trap of the Underdog A classic example is when a seemingly inferior team is...

Betting on the NBA can feel overwhelming with its rapid pace and ever-changing lineups. But you don’t need a supercomputer or complex model to gain an edge. By focusing on a few smart angle-based strategies, you can start handicapping NBA games like a pro. In this article, we’ll break down advanced NBA handicapping tips – from interpreting pace and efficiency stats to spotting schedule fatigue and understanding the impact of injuries. Pace and Efficiency: Reading the Tempo of the Game Pace is all about how fast teams play. It’s usually measured by possessions per game – essentially how many times a team gets the ball in a full game. A fast-paced team will generate more possessions (and hence more scoring opportunities), while a slow-paced team will deliberately milk the clock and limit possessions. When two teams with up-tempo styles meet, you can expect a higher-scoring, run-and-gun affair. For example, high-paced teams like the Sacramento Kings (who led the league...

Betting on NBA games can be exciting and rewarding once you understand the basics. Whether you’re new to sports betting or looking to sharpen your hoops wagering skills, this guide will walk you through the essentials – from point spreads and moneylines to over/unders. We’ll also dive into some unique NBA factors (like player rest and playoff intensity) that can affect your bets. Hopefully, this will help you bet on NBA games with confidence. Let’s jump in! Understanding NBA Point Spreads Point spreads are the most popular way to bet on NBA games. In each matchup, bookmakers set a margin of points that the favored team is expected to win by. When you bet on the favorite, you “lay” the points – meaning that the team needs to win by more than the spread for your bet to cash. If you bet on the underdog, you “take” the points – your bet wins if the underdog wins outright or loses by fewer points than the spread. Essentially, you’re wagering on how many...

Subscribe to the SportsCapping.com Podcast on iTunes or SoundCloud. For this week's episode, Jack Jones and Brandon Lee will be discussing the NBA and college basketball future odds. Each expert gives out their favorite Eastern Conference and Western Conference bets in the NBA, as well as their favorite overall and a sleeper pick to win the 2016 NCAA Tournament.  New SportsCapping.com Podcast episodes will be available throughout the year with more free picks, odds, predictions, and analysis from the best cappers in the...

The NBA has been featuring games on Christmas Day pretty much since its start.  The teams for these games are not fixed like the NFL on Thanksgiving.  Instead, the league chooses some of the best matchups of players and teams to showcase.   But here's the real question. How can we use this information to our advantage when betting these games? My theory was that NBA games on Christmas Day will go UNDER the total more often than not due to a few simple variables. NBA Unders on Christmas Day The Logic The NBA goes out of its way to feature some of the better teams in the league.  For example, the teams that met in the Finals last year almost always meet on Christmas Day.   This means that both teams are going to be motivated to prove themselves.  That motivation translates into defensive intensity.  More intensity translates into tougher shots for the opposite.  That would lead to lower scoring. A different idea is the complete opposite of our motivation theory....