Last night, October 2, the San Francisco 49ers, which was my top-rated 7-Unit best bet, were priced as 8.5-point underdogs and won the game outright over
their divisional rival LA Rams. I had recommended a sprinkle of not more than 2 units on the money line too and it worked out very well and as planned. 

In 2024, 272 games were played during the regular season with 27 or 10% of them involved a dog of 8.5 points. Just three or 1.1% of those dogs won the game. 

In 2023, there 272 regular season games played with 42 of them or 15.4% involved underdogs of 8.5 or more points and just four or 1.5% of all games played won the game.  

In 2022, 272 games were played during the regular season with 43 or 15/8% of them involved a dog of 8.5 points. Just five or 1.8% of those dogs won the game. 

Since 1989, there have been 9,081 regular season games played and 1,678 or 18.4% of them involved a dog of 8.5 or more points. Only 291 or 3.2% of those 8.5 or
greater underdogs won the game.  

The amount of 8.5 or greater underdogs was greater in the 1990’s as NFL parity rules were implemented and now the teams are much more similar and competitive. 
From 1990 to 1999, there were 319 double-digit underdogs and 70 of them won the game. Broken out by season, 2024 had 18 double-digit dogs, which ranked fourth
fewest in a season since 1989 and they went 4-14 SU and 10-8 ATS. In 1992, there were 52 games involving a double-digit spread and those dogs went 14-38 SU and
33-19 ATS good for 64% winning bets. The most in any season occurred in 2009 when there were 61 double-digit dogs and they went 8-53 SU and 30-31 ATS.
So, they are rare, especially when that dog wins outright and eliminates many survivor entries. 

Since the 2001 season, there have been 25 double-digit underdogs, and they went 4-31 SU (16%) and 10-15 ATS. Since 2001, there have been 53 8.5 or more-point
underdogs in the playoffs and they have compiled a 12-41 SU and 26-27 ATS record. 

Let’s Look at the Algorithms 

So, there are highly profitable situational algorithms we can track for future solid betting opportunities. One has compiled a 50-200 SU (20%) and 138-109-4 ATS
record good for 56% winning bets since 1990 or 35 seasons. 

  • Bet on underdogs of 7.5 or more points. 

  • The game is in the regular season. 

  • They are facing a divisional foe. 

  • They lost both meetings in the previous season to this rival. 

  • This is the first meeting between the rivals in the current season. 

If the game occurs during prime time, they improve to 6-24 SU (20%) and 18-12 ATS for 60% winning bets. Drilling deeper, if our dog is coming off a loss,
they have gone 5-12 SU (29%) and 12-5 ATS good for 71% winning bets and if they were the favorite in that loss, they have gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS
good for 83% winning bets.