Sports Handicapper Michael Alexander's Picks & Predictions

Rating: 2 Units

There hasn’t been much defensive resistance from either club so far. Chicago’s first two games produced seven and six total goals, while Buffalo’s opener produced nine. The Sabres allowed six but still scored three themselves, and Chicago has surrendered at least five in both outings. With both defenses struggling early, the Over 6 is the preferred total.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers had the best record in the regular season and finished the season strong even though they had secured the top place of their division, but they are facing a Padres team that was in even better form to close the season and are 19-3 in their last 22 games. The Mizz is the Mizz but the Padres have been better against righties than the Brewers have been against lefties in the last 10 days and the Padres also have a top-5 bullpen, so with that price I will get the +1.5 runs with the Padres in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Leafs have already played two games this season with split results and playing against the Senators who will have fresh legs playing their first game of the season, I expect a high-scoring affair. Both goalies are coming off a sub-.900 SV% season, by far their worst in years and both teams are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 head-to-head meetings. Take the over 6 in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bearcats are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS this season, while Arizona is 3-1 SU / 0-4 ATS, which takes us right the fact that the Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite versus undefeated opponents, including 0-4 ATS in conference games.  

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams started the season strong, winning easily and both scored six goals each, while being excellent on the power play, with 66.6% each. Their previous meeting in Columbus last season was a shootout with nine total goals combined and based on how the offenses and power players looked in both teams’ season openers, I cannot see how this game will have less than six total goals. Take the over 6 in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

Alabama remains the favorite for a reason, but the value has shifted toward the Bulldogs as the spread has moved away from the key number of three. Mississippi State gets home-field advantage and has played well enough early this season to warrant considerably more respect than this matchup might have commanded before the year began. The additional point created by the early movement matters. Alabama could absolutely escape Starkville with a victory while Mississippi State still covers the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Herd is 3-1, but the Marshall Plan is lacking in defense, ranked 133rd so far, and last week they escaped a potential embarrassment against Gardner Webb, stealing a 36-35 win on a field goal with four seconds left. The Monarchs have been printing money for the faithful, going 26-7 SU/20-13 ATS against conference teams since moving up from FCS in 2022, including eight straight wins as a favorite of 16 or more, averaging 24 PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

Unsurprisingly, the statistical split in this matchup is stark: Toledo holds a 328-yard-per-game edge in net production, with major mismatches on third down, in pass protection, and inside the red zone. Toledo averages 468 yards and 43.3 points per game; Ball State manages only 279.5 yards and 18 points. The Rockets average 7.1 yards per play while allowing 4.5. The Cardinals average 4.7 yards per play while surrendering an alarming 6.8. Toledo has scored touchdowns on 14 of 16 red-zone trips. Ball State’s defense has allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 15 of 16 trips – a staggering 93.8% touchdown rate. Now you know why the market opened Toledo -17.5 before climbing to -19.5. Get in while you can.

Rating: 3 Units

The Bye Week comes into play here; BYU is coming off one, while TCU is a weird 2-9 before the bye week. The Froggies are also 1-4 versus undefeated conference teams and 1-2 against the Power 4 this season. The Cougars are 3-1 in the last four meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games when favored. Finally, playing on any 3-0 college football team in Game 4 that averages more than 190 rushing yards per game, is coming off a double-digit SU and ATS win, has a week of rest, and averages 40+ PPG while allowing fewer than 17 PPG is 14-1 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Tigers have SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week Daeden Hopkins to lean on; he already has eight sacks and 21 pressures. Tigers’ coach Eli Drinkwitz is 10-4 ATS as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS as a home dog of six or fewer points. Florida is 0-7 ATS when facing an opponent seeking revenge, and finally, Mizzou is 9-0 ATS as a home dog of five or fewer when playing for vengeance.