Sports Handicapper Michael Alexander's Picks & Predictions

Rating: 2 Units

Carolina comes into this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and they have allowed two goals or fewer in five straight, but they will be on a back to back here. The Hurricanes are 5-0-0 on the road this year, while the Flames are 0-3-0 at home. Calgary has just one win on the season and they have allowed 4+ goals in four of their last five. These two teams are on opposite ends of the NHL standings, but I think Calgary has some value here. Carolina wasn’t great last night in Winnipeg and I think the Flames can take advantage of the back to back. 

Rating: 3 Units

The Saints are 2-3 ATS; the Giants are 4-1 ATS and unbeaten at home. Many feel the Saints need to find the road to recovery before it runs straight through a Giants wall. In this one, consider that playing on any NFL team road team following three straight losses in three consecutive home games since 1980 teams in this role have bounced back up off the carpet to go 19-10-1 ATS. When these glad to “Get the Hell out of Dodge’ teams are facing a foe that won four or more game last season they jump to 17-6-1 ATS. It will be no surprise to see Big Blue fall to 1-6 ATS in battle with teams from the NFC South.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jets walk into Gillette Stadium this Sunday knowing the history. They’re 2-18 SU in their last 20 visits to Foxborough. One regular season win in the last 16 seasons there, and that one came against a depleted, end-of-era Patriots team. That’s not a trend. That’s a warning. New England is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite. They’re also 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC East. After a 45-17 dismantling of the Raiders last week, Drake Maye looks fully unlocked — 374 yards and five total touchdowns after a slow start. The Jets are 2-3 and have looked better at times, but the venue has buried better Jets teams than this one. New England is 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season and is averaging a 16-point cover margin in those games. Finally, the Patriots 7-0 ATS as home favorites while the NY Jets are 2-9 ATS in their eleven games on the road, there is only one way to look here

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas arrives at 2-3 with a defense that has been historically bad. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFL with zero interceptions through five games, allow a league-worst 168-plus rushing yards per game, and are giving up an opponent passer rating of 120.5—dead last. This shapes up as a high-scoring primetime shootout—but Lambeau is a different animal when Green Bay is forcing takeaways. If the Packers get pressure and force Dak into mistakes, this one can get ugly fast for the visitors. Momentum, home field, a scorching Jordan Love, and a Cowboys defense that still can’t take the ball away make it hard to fade the Bay. The Boys are 0-5 ATS after a Thursday game, 1-5 ATS against the NFC North, and 1-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back travelers.

Rating: 3 Units

The Rams have the league’s most productive offense. Arizona has the better sack and turnover numbers. The Cardinals need to turn those advantages into short fields and points. Good luck with that against arguably the NFC’s best team, currently sitting at 2-3 on the season. Considering that playing on the Los Angeles Rams as a favorite in games when they are coming off an outright loss as a favorite is 9-0 ATS, the Rams improve to 6-1 ATS after a Monday Night contest.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Eagles are dragging a three game losing streak back home after getting kicked around in London by Jacksonville. They’ve reshuffled the offensive line — three Week 1 starters gone — and against the Jags, their backs managed a pathetic 22 rushing yards. Saquon Barkley sat that one out and still didn’t practice Wednesday. That’s not a bump. That’s a problem. Philadelphia is 3-13 ATS in games before a Monday Night appearance. Carolina is rested after the bye and walking into a spot where the visitor in this series is 7-1 ATS. Should Carolina protect the turnover edge (Carolina +3, Philly –2), the Eagles have a lot of fixing to do in a hurry. The numbers are loud. The trends are louder. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS against teams coming off a neutral-field game. 

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bucs will need to lean on their possession game, averaging 31:52 per contest, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s path is clear: disrupt Daniels with a pass rush that has produced 11 sacks, nearly twice Tampa’s six. Can’t fade the Bucs’ 1-13 ATS record in games before tackling Carolina, nor its 0-7 ATS mark in its last seven games against AFC North opponents. And if you think otherwise, you also need to know that the Steelers are 11-0 ATS in their last eleven games against NFC South foes.