Sports Handicapper Michael Alexander's Picks & Predictions

Rating: 6 Units

Rating: 6 Units

Atlanta averages more than 120 points, and New Orleans allows more than 121. The Pelicans just played a 252-point game against Sacramento. That doesn’t mean every game is going to turn into a shootout, but the defensive numbers aren’t encouraging. The biggest risk is New Orleans going cold from three, because the Pelicans have been shooting only 29 percent out there. Still, I think Atlanta gets into the 120s and New Orleans does enough to help.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

Eight of the last nine day games between the Maple Leafs and Canucks at Rogers Arena have gone UNDER the total goals line.

Rating: 2 Units

The Oilers have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents. While the Islanders have won four of their last five games as underdogs after coming off overtime.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are missing too many regular contributors to be favored, yet Gilgeous-Alexander's control of pace and ability to earn late-clock points can still keep them within a possession or two. Houston has scoring and defensive length with Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson, but Friday's road loss and overnight turnaround leave less margin for a dominant fourth-quarter finish.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota +12.5 is the Best Bet even though San Antonio is projected to win outright. The Spurs have the rest advantage and Wembanyama's rim protection, but the Timberwolves are still a physical rebounding team capable of keeping games within a couple of possessions for long stretches. Friday's 26-point win over the Clippers showed they can defend and create easy points without Edwards. San Antonio should eventually control the paint, yet asking the home side to win by at least 13 is a stiffer task than earning the victory. An eight-point Spurs win gives Minnesota a cushion against the posted spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Embattled Trojans coach Lincoln Riley, under fi re despite being 6-2, went on a charm offensive this week by telling reporters USC is where he wants to be. Beating Ohio State in the Buckeyes’ first visit to the Coliseum in 16 years is very good for job security and puts Ohio State in an awkward two-loss position that may leave them out of the CFP. (Sidenote—who are we kidding? Ohio State could go 0-12 and get consideration, just like Notre Dame) The seven points by the Trojans last week were the lowest of Riley’s coaching career and knocked the Trojans out of the Top 25. Riley is, if nothing else, resilient, and his 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS mark after a loss and facing a winning team proves it. Finally, the Ohio State Buckeyes have not scored a touchdown in the Coliseum against the Southern Cal Trojans since 1949. 

Rating: 2 Units

Mack Brown made life miserable for the Canes in his days there. The Heels are 4-1 in the last five, and in recent times Carolina is 5-1 ATS in the last six against unbeaten teams, 5-1-1 ATS as a home dog of seven or more, 3-1 in the last four Game 8s, but 1-3 after Syracuse and 0-4 in the second half of back-to-back home games. Miami is 3-7 ATS after Pitt, 1-3 in the first of back-to back road games, and 2-6 ATS as a conference road favorite of seven or more. Next up on the Canes’ slate is their final road game of the year and a Game of the Year candidate at Notre Dame. Could Miami be looking past North Carolina toward South Bend? Have the Hurricanes remained humble, as their head coach wishes, and just be thinking about “1-0” as the goal?  

Rating: 3 Units

Both Arizona and Tech are ranked and have 6-1 records, so the loser can make plans for CFP watch parties rather than prepare for the games. The Wildcats and Red Raiders can both score at 36.1 and 35.9 PPG, respectively. Arizona is tougher defensively, 16.7 to 20.4 per game. Tech is 4-0 at home, and Arizona has won five straight and features game-breaking talent in QB Noah Fifita, who has surpassed 2K yards with 18 TDs and only four interceptions. Tech showed some offensive inconsistency last week for the first time this year, and the Wildcats have a better defense than Cincinnati. Tech is 3-12 in Game 8, while U of A is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

ND is 0-5 ATS coming off a bye week when a 20+ point favorite against a military team. Navy is 5-1 ATS versus a team coming off a bye following a SU defeat, and the Mids are 9-2 ATS as a dog of 23 or greater. Consider that playing on any FBS Military dog of more than 20-plus points coming off an outright SU/ATS loss as a home dog is 17-3 ATS.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Utes enter knowing they are 0-5 SUATS as road chalk of fewer than 13 points against .700 or greater foes, not to mention a “triple revenge” contest up next with BYU in the ‘Holy War’ next week. Yes, Utah QB Devon Dampier is a dual-threat standout (1,616 pass yards, 15 TDs, 349 rush yards, and 5 rush TDs), but Utah is going into a Bearcats’ den this afternoon – where they could find a hornets’ nest waiting. Consider that Cincinnati is 6-1 SU / 6-0 ATS at home when coming off a SU home underdog win in games in which the Bearcats sport a scoring defense of fewer than 27 PPG.