Cowboys vs. Seahawks Picks & Prediction

1* Free Pick on Cowboys +165

Preseason Week 1 is not a regular-season game, and the market keeps pricing it like one.

Seattle's 5-0 close to last season and that -0.1217 defensive EPA per play built the reputation, but Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams are all sitting Saturday.

So is most of Seattle's front line.

The star metrics don't apply.

The opposition case leans on Dallas giving up 33.8 points per game over their last five and posting 0.2601 defensive EPA per play across their last four.

Fair.

That was starters against starters in December.

Saturday is Sam Howell and Joe Milton III running the offense against Seattle's second and third-team defense, and the Cowboys' backup reps in camp have been aggressive by design.

Seattle's backfield is a real problem for the home side.

Kenneth Walker left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is on PUP with a knee, and rookie Jadarian Price has been limited with lower-body soreness.

That leaves George Holani and Emanuel Wilson trying to sustain drives against a Dallas front where Quinnen Williams anchors the middle.

Dallas also has legitimate roster-battle motivation.

Blue and Mafah are in a heated fight for the RB2 job.

Howell and Milton are competing for QB2.

That's a group playing hard into the fourth quarter.

At +165, the implied 37.7% win rate is light for a coin-flip exhibition where variance rules.

Give me the points.

I like the Cowboys