Sports Handicapper Stephen Nover's Picks & Predictions

If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined.  Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge.  The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore.  Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday.  The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes.  On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.

The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end.  The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough.  The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record.  This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time.  The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons.  Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game. 

I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London.  The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games.  Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football.  This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.