Betting on baseball can feel overwhelming for newer bettors. With games every day and unpredictable outcomes, it’s easy to fall into random bets or always picking big-name favorites.

Instead, let’s talk about a few practical betting systems in MLB that can tilt the odds in your favor. We’ll cover the value of betting underdogs, how to use team streaks (hot or cold) to guide your wagers, and the First 5 Innings (F5) strategy to focus on starting pitching. These approaches are conversational and easy to follow – no overly technical jargon – with real examples to illustrate the ideas.

The Long-Term Value of MLB Underdogs

In baseball, underdogs win more often than you might think. Over the long run, MLB underdogs win roughly 4 out of every 9 games (around 44% of the time). That win rate is below 50%, but here’s the key: underdog bets pay out extra.

If an underdog is +130, a $10 bet wins you $13 profit instead of just $10. Because these payouts are higher than even money, you don’t need a 50% win rate to make money. Hitting underdog bets at even ~47% can yield solid profits. Profitable baseball betting isn’t about picking the most winners; it’s about making money, and well-priced underdogs are often the key.

Why do underdogs offer value? Baseball is uniquely upset-prone – even the best teams lose 60+ games in a season, and the worst teams still win plenty. Casual bettors tend to flock to favorites, so sportsbooks often shade lines toward those favorites.

This means the underdog’s odds can be inflated (better payout) relative to their true chances of winning. A savvy bettor who spots a “live dog” (an underdog with a real shot) can profit in the long run by grabbing those plus-money payouts. Remember, you’re playing the percentages: if your underdogs win even 45% of the time at decent plus odds, you’re coming out ahead.

Real-world example: In 2022, the Detroit Tigers were often underdogs, yet they upset contenders multiple times when conditions were right. If a strong pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez was starting for Detroit against a tired opponent, a $100 bet on the Tigers as +150 underdogs could net a $150 profit on a win. You might lose the next one, but over time, these juicy payouts add up.

The concept is simple: because you get better than 1:1 odds, you can win less than half your bets and still make money. This is a core advantage in baseball betting that isn’t as common in sports like the NBA or the NFL.

When Does Betting an Underdog Make Sense?

Not all underdogs are worth backing blindly – you want to pick your spots. Here are some scenarios where an underdog bet is especially attractive:

  • Pitching Mismatch in Your Favor: If the underdog team has the stronger starting pitcher on the mound, they have a legitimate shot to win.

    For example, if your underdog has an ace or an in-form starter facing a favorite’s mediocre pitcher, the game might be closer than the odds suggest. Savvy bettors look for “live dogs with a pitching edge” – an underrated starter can tilt the matchup. In these cases, taking the plus-money on the underdog is smart.

  • Bullpen or Late-Game Edge: Bullpens play a huge role in baseball outcomes. If the underdog’s relief pitchers are solid (or rested) and the favorite’s bullpen is overworked or shaky, an upset becomes more likely. An underdog with a deep bullpen can hang in a close game and steal a win late. This matchup edge – say a strong closer on the underdog vs. a tired bullpen on the favorite – is a green light to consider the dog.

  • Schedule Spots and Tired Favorites: Sometimes, the situational spot favors the underdog. Maybe the favored team is coming off a long road trip or an extra-innings game the night before, while the underdog is rested. Fatigue and travel can level the playing field. If a heavy favorite might sit some starters for rest, the underdog has an even better chance.

    For instance, imagine the Yankees just played a Sunday night game and have to travel to face the Royals on Monday – the Royals (usually underdogs) could be a sneakier pick in that spot.
  • Another interesting angle: underdogs in divisional games. Familiar rivalry games tend to be tighter contests. Historically, underdogs have been slightly profitable in division matchups, winning about 43.6% of those games and yielding a small positive ROI overall. The teams know each other well, which can erase some talent gap. So don’t be afraid to back an underdog when it’s a rivalry series – the stats show they can surprise.

The bottom line on underdogs is value. You won’t win every time – far from it. But by selectively betting on quality underdogs when circumstances are in their favor, you’re taking advantage of the generous payouts. Over a long season, that can lead to consistent profits, even if you only win, say 45% of those bets.

Many experienced MLB bettors prefer the plus-money of underdogs and avoid big favorites. It’s not about being contrarian for its own sake – it’s about recognizing that the betting public inflates certain teams, and the other side of those games often has the better risk/reward balance.

Team Streak Betting Strategies

Baseball is a sport of streaks and slumps. Teams can get hot and reel off eight wins in a row, or go ice-cold and lose 10 straight. As a bettor, you can use these streaks to inform your wagers. There are a few ways to approach streak-based betting:

  • Riding Hot Teams: One popular tactic is to “ride the wave” of a winning team. If a team is on a hot streak, you keep betting on them until they lose.

    The logic is simple: a team playing with confidence and momentum can often keep it rolling, and you cash tickets along the way. This approach works best with good teams that hit their stride – think of a strong contender that’s won 5 or 6 in a row and is firing on all cylinders.

    By backing them each game, you might win multiple bets before the streak ends. As one betting veteran quipped, “If you play on a streak, you can win many times and lose only once,” meaning you collect several wins and only eat one loss at the end.

    For example, if the Atlanta Braves are red-hot in July, riding that hot hand game after game can be profitable (and frankly, pretty fun) until they finally drop one.

  • Fading Cold Teams: On the flip side, you can profit from a team’s misery. “Fading” a cold team means betting against a team that’s on a losing streak. The idea here is that a team in a slump often continues to struggle, whether due to poor form, injuries, or just bad clubhouse vibes.

    If the Kansas City Royals have lost seven in a row, you’d bet against them (i.e., take their opponent) each game until they finally win one. This works especially well if the losing streak has underlying causes like a star player injured or a bullpen that can’t hold a lead. Each game they lose, you cash your bet; when they eventually win and break the streak, that’s the only bet you drop.

    Many bettors find it easier to trust a bad team to keep being bad than to predict when a turnaround will happen. Just be mindful: once a team has lost an absurd number in a row, the betting value of going against them might shrink (oddsmakers adjust the lines eventually). But in general, consistently fading the worst teams during a tailspin can fatten your wallet.

  • Betting Against a Long Winning Streak: This one is a bit counterintuitive. While riding a hot team works for moderate streaks, there comes a point when a winning streak gets too long and the team starts to be overvalued. If a team has, say, won 8 or 10 games in a row, the public tends to pile on them, thinking they’re invincible. Sportsbooks will make you pay a premium to bet that streaking team (the odds on them get less and less favorable).

    At that stage, a savvy bettor might do the opposite and bet against the streak. Why? Because all streaks eventually end, and you’re likely getting an inflated price on the other side.

    A study by one sports analyst found that backing the opponent when a home team had a 4+ game win streak yielded about a +6.5% ROI, confirming the value of fading teams “surfing a long winning streak”.

    For instance, imagine an average team like the Seattle Mariners suddenly wins 10 in a row – by game 11, everyone is hyping them and bettors are hammering them as favorites, driving the line up. That might be a prime spot to bet against Seattle, taking their opponent at a juicy underdog price, expecting the Mariners to finally cool off.

    It feels bold to step in front of a freight train, but historically, it can pay off to be the contrarian here. The key is timing: you’re not blindly fading any streak; you’re waiting until a streak has run long enough that the value now lies with the underdog opponent.

A quick caution on streak betting: always consider the context. Not all streaks are created equal. A team might be winning due to an easy part of their schedule, or losing streaks might be exaggerated by one-run losses that could flip on any day. And as streaks get very long, oddsmakers adjust the odds (as mentioned). In fact, near the end of a long streak, the lines can become so skewed that the potential profit from riding the streak dwindles.

So, while streak-based systems are useful tools, combine them with common sense. Look at how the team is playing, injuries, pitching matchups, etc., not just the streak itself. Used wisely, these strategies – riding hot teams, fading cold ones, and knowing when to fade a too-hot team – can take advantage of the natural ebb and flow of a 162-game season.

First 5 Innings (F5) Betting: Focusing on Starters and Avoiding Bullpens

Another profitable system for baseball bettors (especially those who geek out on pitching matchups) is First 5 Innings betting, often abbreviated as F5. This is essentially betting on the game’s result after five innings, instead of after the full nine. It’s like wagering on just the first half of a baseball game.

Why do this? Because it lets you isolate the part of the game dominated by the starting pitchers and avoid the unpredictability of bullpens and late-inning drama.

In an F5 bet, you might take Team A -½ run for the first 5 innings, or Team A moneyline for the first 5, meaning you’re betting them to be ahead after five innings. After that, your bet is done – you don’t care what happens in the 6th inning onward.

The beauty is that you’re focusing on the most predictable portion of the game. The starters set the tone; by betting F5, you’re essentially saying, “I trust these starting pitchers and lineups through the first five.” And you’re steering clear of the chaos that can happen late with relievers, bench players, and extra innings.

This approach is great if you’ve identified a big starting pitching mismatch. Suppose the Houston Astros have Justin Verlander (an ace) starting against the Texas Rangers’ rookie call-up. You expect Verlander to dominate early, but maybe you know the Astros’ bullpen has been shaky lately.

With a standard full-game bet, a bad bullpen could blow Houston’s lead in the 8th or 9th inning. But with an F5 bet on the Astros, you just need them to be leading after five innings, before those unreliable relievers enter. You get in and out with a win, avoiding any late heartbreak.

First five betting is like concentrating on the starting pitchers and early-game action, steering clear of the unpredictable chaos of late-inning relievers and walk-off homers. In other words: No bullpen, no late-game meltdowns – you get paid before things get wild.

F5 wagers can be a lifesaver when even good teams have bad bullpens. Even the strongest teams can have shaky bullpens that turn a sure win into a nail-biter.

By focusing on the first five innings, you bypass that uncertainty and bet on the more controlled part of the game. This is especially useful for casual bettors who get frustrated seeing their “lock” 5-0 lead evaporate in the seventh inning. With F5, if your team is up 5-0 through five, you’ve already cashed your ticket while others sweat the bullpen.

Some tips for using the F5 system effectively:

  • Research the Starting Pitchers: Since your bet is all about the first 5, the starters are the stars of the show. Check their ERA, recent performance, and even how they typically fare the first time through a lineup. If one starter usually comes out strong and the other often struggles early, that’s a sign to lean F5 on the stronger guy.

    For instance, if Max Scherzer is starting for the Mets, you might bet Mets F5 because you trust Scherzer to shut down the opponent early (and you’d avoid the Mets’ bullpen, which might blow it later).

  • Consider Offense and Early Scoring: Some teams are “first-inning scoring machines” or tend to jump on pitchers early, while others start slow. If Team A often scores in the first few innings and Team B’s offense usually wakes up late, an F5 bet on Team A makes sense. You’re essentially predicting the early tempo of the game.

  • Lineups and Rest: Watch for when teams rest key hitters. Often, a star might take a day off and only pinch-hit late. In an F5 bet, a missing star in the starting lineup is huge. On the flip side, if a team’s top closer or setup man is resting, it doesn’t matter for F5 (since they wouldn’t appear before inning 6 anyway). F5 is all about who’s starting the game.

First 5 Innings bets have become popular because they cater to those who do their homework on pitchers and want a more straightforward, matchup-driven wager. It’s a great system if you feel more comfortable handicapping starting pitchers than guessing how the entire bullpen carousel will go.

And from a viewing standpoint, it’s satisfying – you enjoy the bulk of the game’s most important matchups and can cash out by the middle, then watch the rest stress-free. As a bonus, if you’re short on time, an F5 bet wraps up quicker, which can be nice on a busy day.

Why These Systems Work in Baseball (More Than Other Sports)

You might be wondering why we emphasize these particular systems for MLB as opposed to, say, football or basketball. The reason is that baseball’s structure and season create a unique betting environment. Here’s why these strategies shine in MLB:

  • Long Season, Many Games: Baseball’s 162-game season is a grind. Teams play almost every day for six months. This long schedule means even the best teams will go through slumps, and even the worst teams will have their moments. In a shorter season sport like the NFL (16-17 games), an elite team might only lose a couple of times all year. But in MLB, even a powerhouse will lose 50-60 games. This inherent parity gives underdogs more chances to win and makes streaks (both hot and cold) common.

    For bettors, the large number of games means more opportunities to find value, and the law of averages plays out. A strategy like betting underdogs or streaks has enough sample size to manifest its edge over time. You won’t hit 55% winners in one week and call it a season – you have hundreds of games to apply your approach, so the math has room to work out in the long run.

  • Daily Rhythm and Matchup Variability: Because games are played nearly every day, factors like fatigue, travel, and pitching rotations have a big impact. In baseball, you often catch teams in situational angles – like the tired favorite scenario we discussed, or a team coming off a long winning streak facing a fresh opponent. The fact that teams play series (3-4 games in a row against the same opponent) also creates interesting dynamics: a team on a losing streak can get demoralized as losses pile in a series, or a hot team can keep momentum through a week. These daily nuances make strategies like riding streaks or fading slumps very viable.

    Other sports with more rest between games don’t offer that same day-to-day momentum factor. Baseball bettors who stay on top of lineups, travel schedules, and pitcher rest can find great spots – for example, knowing a certain bullpen is exhausted from yesterday’s doubleheader might steer you to an F5 bet or an underdog play that day. The constant flow of games is a playground for those who do their homework.

  • Less Public Bias on Lines: MLB betting lines often see less dramatic public-driven movement compared to sports like the NFL. Football Sunday might have hordes of casual bettors all pounding the popular favorite, skewing the spread. In baseball, the betting public is more diffuse – games are spread out every day, and outside of high-profile teams or playoff races, there’s simply less hype per game.

    This means odds can be a bit softer or more value-packed for sharp-eyed bettors, since they’re not always corrected by a massive public influx. There’s still public bias (big-market teams like the Yankees or Dodgers will always draw bets), but it’s subtler. The everyday nature of baseball also means bookmakers can’t overreact to one game; they set more data-driven lines. This creates an opening for “system” bettors to exploit edges.

    For example, a casual fan might always bet the Yankees because they’re high-scoring, but a strategic bettor might know to take the underdog Orioles when the Yankees’ bats are cold and an Orioles ace is pitching. In general, baseball’s betting market is considered more efficient and less volatile than football’s, so systematic approaches (like underdog value hunting or situational plays) can eke out a profit without being drowned by public money swings.

Lastly, baseball is a sport where numbers matter. The wealth of statistics and the one-on-one nature of many matchups (pitcher vs. batter) give bettors a lot to chew on. The systems we discussed leverage those numbers: underdog betting leans on historical win percentages and payout math, streak betting plays off patterns and probability, and F5 betting is rooted in starting pitcher stats.

Other sports have their systems too, but baseball’s long season and depth of data make it especially suited for a systematic approach.

With patience and smart bankroll management, these baseball betting systems can help a casual or intermediate bettor move beyond gut feelings and into a more strategic, profitable mindset.

Enjoy the season, and best of luck finding those savvy bets – whether it’s backing a gutsy underdog, riding a hot team, or cashing in by the fifth inning!