How to Bet on MLB Baseball: Moneyline, Run Line, and Totals Guide

So are you ready to dive into betting on Major League Baseball? Great!

MLB’s regular season offers games almost every day, and it’s a primarily moneyline sport, meaning most bets focus on picking winners, not beating point spreads.

In this beginner-friendly guide, we’ll break down the three core ways to bet on baseball: the moneyline, the run line, and the game total (over/under). We’ll explain each in plain English with examples (no heavy math, promise), and we’ll also chat about how pitching (starting rotations and bullpens) can dramatically sway the odds.

Plus, we’ll toss in some practical tips – like checking the lineup and travel schedule – so you can bet smarter. Let’s play ball!

Moneyline Betting: Picking the Winner

What’s a Moneyline? At its heart, a moneyline bet is simply wagering on which team will win the game outright. There’s no point spread to cover and no need to worry about the margin of victory. In baseball, games cannot end in a tie, so one team will always win, making moneyline betting the most straightforward way to bet on baseball.

Sportsbooks designate one team as the favorite (expected to win) and the other as the underdog. This is reflected in the odds with a negative number for the favorite and a positive number for the underdog. The moneyline odds also tell you how much you stand to win relative to your wager:

Favorite at -135: You need to risk $135 to win $100 in profit (since the favorite is more likely to win, you wager more to win a fixed amount).
Underdog at +120: A $100 bet would win $120 in profit if the underdog pulls off the victory (because the underdog is less likely to win, a successful bet pays out more).

In both cases, if your team wins, you also get your original stake back. Moneyline odds can vary widely: a big favorite might be -200 or more (meaning you’d bet $200 to win $100), while a long-shot underdog might be +250 (bet $100 to win $250).

Most everyday matchups, however, will have favorites in the range of around -110 to -150 and underdogs around even money to +130, making the example of -135 vs +120 fairly typical.

Example: Say the New York Yankees are listed at -135 against the Boston Red Sox at +120. If you believe the Yankees will win, a $135 bet on New York would net you a $100 profit (plus your $135 back) if they indeed win.

On the flip side, if you like the Red Sox as underdogs, a $100 bet on Boston would net you a $120 profit (plus your $100 stake) if the Red Sox win. It doesn’t matter whether the score is 2–1 or 10–0 – all that matters is picking the winner of the game.

Moneyline betting is the bread-and-butter of MLB wagering – the most common way to bet on baseball. Especially for beginners, it’s a friendly starting point because it aligns with how we naturally think about games: Who’s going to win? As you get more comfortable, you might explore other angles, but mastering moneylines is step one.

Run Line: Baseball’s Version of the Point Spread

While MLB doesn’t have traditional point spreads like football or basketball, it does offer the run line. The run line is essentially a fixed point spread of 1.5 runs that almost always applies to every game. One team will be -1.5 (the favorite) and the other will be +1.5 (the underdog). This means the favorite has to win by 2 or more runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can either win outright or lose by just one run and still cover the spread.

Why 1.5 runs? Baseball is a lower-scoring sport, and roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by a single run. By using a 1.5-run spread, sportsbooks offer a way to even out a matchup.

If you think a favorite is likely to win big (blow out the opponent), taking them at -1.5 runs can increase your payout compared to the moneyline.

Conversely, if you believe an underdog will keep it very close, +1.5 runs gives you a little insurance in case they lose by one.

How Run Line Odds Work: It’s important to note that the run line comes with its own odds (called the juice or vig).

For example, you might see: Dodgers -1.5 (+140) vs Pirates +1.5 (-160). This indicates the Dodgers are favored by 1.5 runs, and if you take that bet, you’d win $1.40 for every $1 staked (i.e. +140) because they have to clear a higher hurdle by winning by 2+ runs.

The Pirates at +1.5 are the safer side (they can afford a close loss), so you might have to risk $1.60 to win $1 (i.e., -160) on that side.

In essence, the run line favorite often pays better than their moneyline, but carries more risk; the run line underdog gives a cushion, but you pay a premium for that 1.5-run head start.

When to Bet the Run Line: Run lines are most popular when dealing with big favorites.

Suppose an elite team with their ace pitcher is a heavy favorite at -250 on the moneyline (very low return). If you’re confident they can win by 2 or more, betting them -1.5 might turn that into an even or plus-money payout. It’s a way to get better odds on the favorite by essentially giving the underdog a 1.5-run “handicap.”

On the flip side, taking +1.5 runs on an underdog is useful if you expect a nail-biter. Many baseball games are one-run games, so that extra 1.5 can be gold.

Just remember that if the favorite only wins by exactly one run, a -1.5 run line bet loses, whereas the +1.5 bet wins. Always weigh how likely a tight game is before laying or taking the runs.

Totals (Over/Under): Betting on Runs Scored

Another major MLB bet type doesn’t involve picking a winner at all: it’s the total runs bet, also known as the over/under. Here, the sportsbook sets a line for the combined number of runs both teams will score in the game.

Your job is to predict whether the combined runs will go over or under that number. If the total is set at, say, 8.5 runs and the final score is 5-4 (total 9 runs), then “over” bettors win and “under” bettors lose, since 9 is over the line. If the final score is 4-3 (total 7 runs), under bettors win.

Sportsbooks usually include a half-run (like .5) in the total to avoid a push/tie, ensuring there’s a clear win or lose outcome for the bet.

What Influences Game Totals? Betting totals might seem as simple as guessing a high- or low-scoring game, but in reality, many factors can move the over/under line. Perhaps the most important is the starting pitching matchup. If two aces are facing off, bookmakers will set a lower total (you might see a number as low as 6.5 or 7 runs) because dominant pitchers can suppress scoring. If the back-end pitchers or rookie call-ups are starting, or both teams have explosive offenses, a higher total (9, 10, or even higher) will be posted. Other key factors include:

Ballpark factors: Every MLB stadium is unique. Some parks are pitcher-friendly (harder to score runs), while others are hitter-friendly.

For instance, Coors Field in Denver is famous for thin air at high altitude, which helps the ball carry farther – it’s an excellent place to hit home runs, and games there often have higher totals.

In contrast, a big ballpark like San Francisco’s Oracle Park or Detroit’s Comerica Park can suppress home runs and might lead to lower-scoring games on average.
Weather and environment: Weather can significantly impact scoring. Hot, humid weather tends to help the ball fly (boosting offense), whereas cold air can deaden it. Wind is crucial too – a strong wind blowing out to the outfield can turn routine fly balls into homers, increasing runs, while wind blowing in can knock down would-be home runs. Rain can also be a factor: a wet day might favor pitchers. Always check the forecast.
Lineups and injuries: Baseball teams rest players frequently, and a star hitter sitting out can reduce a team’s run output. Always see who’s in the lineup, especially for day games or the last game of a long series when managers might give guys a day off.

If a team’s top sluggers are missing, that could lean the game toward an “under.” On the other hand, if a Gold Glove-caliber defender is out, the defense might suffer and allow more runs.
Recent performance and bullpen health: If both teams have been on a hitting tear, you might expect more runs (over). If their offenses have been slumping, unders become more attractive.

Also, consider the bullpen (more on bullpens shortly): A worn-out or weak bullpen can turn a low-scoring game into a high-scoring one in the late innings if relievers give up runs.

Totals are set based on the full 9+ innings, so the starters might dominate early, but if relief pitchers are shaky, late runs could push a game over the total.

Keep in mind that betting totals lets you focus on how the game will play out rather than who wins. Some bettors prefer this if they feel more confident about the style of game (pitchers’ duel vs. slugfest) than the moneyline result. It’s also a way to stay engaged in a blowout – even if one team is up 10-0, an over/under bet could still be in play until the final out.

Coors Field in Denver is known for high-scoring games due to its high altitude. Thin air makes it easier to hit balls hard and far, contributing to higher run totals on average. When betting totals, always account for unique ballpark factors like this.

Starting Pitchers: The Kings of the Line

In baseball betting, starting pitchers are arguably the single biggest factor in the odds. Unlike sports where the entire team’s effort is more evenly distributed, a starting pitcher can dominate a game, or get shelled, and heavily influence the outcome and scoring.

Sportsbooks always list the probable starters, and many bettors will only place a bet if certain pitchers are confirmed to start. In fact, most sportsbooks give you an option to make your bet “action” or “listed pitchers.” If you choose listed and there’s a last-minute pitching change, your bet is voided. That’s how critical pitchers are!

How Starters Drive the Moneyline: The moneyline price you see is set with the pitching matchup in mind. If an ace (think Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole in their prime) is on the mound, his team will likely be favored or the odds will be shorter, even against a strong opponent.

For example, if Jacob deGrom’s team might normally be only a slight favorite against a certain opponent, with deGrom starting, they could be, say, -200 favorites because he’s expected to tilt the game in his team’s favor.

On the flip side, if a last-minute injury scratches that ace, the odds can dramatically swing. It’s not uncommon to see a line move by a huge margin (or even flip the favorite) if a Cy Young-caliber pitcher is announced out. A team that was -200 might drop to -110 or even become an underdog once the ace is replaced by a less experienced pitcher.

The bottom line: always know who the starting pitchers are before betting, and understand that a great pitcher on the mound usually means a tighter moneyline and often a lower-scoring projected game.

Impact on Run Line and Totals: Starting pitchers also affect the other bet types. A dominant starter can make a 1.5-run spread feel a bit safer for the favorite (since he might shut down the opponent’s bats, increasing chances of a multi-run win).

In totals, as mentioned, two strong starters will lead to a low over/under, whereas two shaky starters push the total higher. If an ace is facing a weak counterpart, you might even consider a run line bet on the favorite – the reasoning being that the ace will likely allow few runs, so if his team can score a decent amount off the weaker pitcher, a 2+ run win is very feasible.

Example – Late Scratch: Imagine you’ve placed a bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers because Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch. A few hours before the game, news breaks that Kershaw has shoulder soreness and a rookie spot-starter will take his place.

You can bet the sportsbooks and bettors will react immediately. If you bet listed pitchers, your bet is canceled (you dodged a bullet). If it’s an action bet, you’re now holding a ticket you might not love, as the odds you took were based on Kershaw pitching.

This example underlines how drastically a starting pitcher can swing the betting odds – always keep an eye on last-minute news. In the MLB regular season, with games every day, these surprise changes do happen.

Bullpen Analysis: The Late-Game X-Factor

Not long ago, casual bettors almost ignored the bullpen – they focused on the starting pitcher and that was that.

But modern MLB has evolved, and bullpens are more important than ever. Teams now rely heavily on a stable of relievers to finish games.

It’s common for a starter to only go 5 or 6 innings, meaning the bullpen must cover the rest. In fact, in recent seasons, starting pitchers have averaged barely 5 innings per start, or even less. That means nearly half the game (and sometimes more) is decided by relief pitchers!

On average, teams used about 3.5 to 4 relievers per game in recent years, up significantly from a decade ago. With strategies like “bullpen games” (where a team has no traditional starter and uses multiple relievers to piece together 9 innings) and “openers” (using a reliever to start the game for an inning or two before bringing in a longer-use pitcher), understanding each team’s bullpen is crucial.

Why Bullpens Matter to Bettors: A great bullpen can lock down a lead or keep a game close; a poor or tired bullpen can blow a lead and rack up runs.

Let’s say you’re betting an over/under and both teams have strong closers and setup men – you might lean under, expecting limited scoring after the 6th inning.

Alternatively, if one team’s bullpen has been on overdrive (maybe they played extra innings last night or their key relievers have pitched 3 days in a row), those relievers might be less effective or even unavailable. That could lead to more late scoring by the opponent, which is something to factor into both moneyline and totals bets.

For a moneyline, if you know Team A’s bullpen is running on fumes, you might hesitate to back them to hold a late lead against Team B’s offense. Or you might bet Team B live during the game if it’s close late, anticipating a comeback once the starter exits.

Practical bullpen analysis could include checking recent game logs to see how many pitches top relievers threw the last few days, the team’s overall bullpen ERA (a rough gauge of quality), and whether the team is in a stretch of many games without off-days (bullpen arms might be worn down). It’s no surprise that middle relievers and setup pitchers have become “secret MVPs” of many teams, even if they don’t get the headlines. As a bettor, recognizing a mismatch in bullpen strength can give you an edge.

For example, if Team X has a mediocre bullpen and is up against Team Y, which often thrives in late innings, you might avoid laying -1.5 runs on Team X even if they have an early lead – those late innings could get dicey.

In summary, don’t treat the bullpen as an afterthought. In today’s game, the bullpen can sway the outcome just as much as the starters. Many experienced bettors will say, “Bet on the bullpen, not just the starter.” It’s an extra layer of analysis that can pay off in those seventh, eighth, and ninth innings.

Tips for Betting on MLB Games (Like a Pro)

Finally, let’s round third base and head for home with some practical tips to help you make smarter baseball bets. These are especially handy for new bettors, but even seasoned bettors keep these factors in mind:

Check the Starting Lineups: MLB teams rest players frequently, and star players getting a day off can heavily influence a game. Always double-check the confirmed lineup before the first pitch. If a team decides to sit a few regulars (common in a day game after a night game), their chances might drop.

There’s nothing worse than betting on a team only to realize their MVP candidate is sitting out. As a rule, don’t place your bet too early in the day unless you’re confident key players will play – lineup info usually comes out a couple of hours before game time.
Monitor Injuries and Updates: Beyond the lineup, keep an ear out for any late-breaking news – a scratched starting pitcher, a minor injury in warm-ups, or even a sudden weather delay. We’ve discussed how pitching changes can void or swing bets.

Similarly, if a game is in a rain delay, some pitchers might get pulled early. Being plugged into a news source or alerts for the teams you bet on can help you react quickly.
Consider Travel and Schedule Spots: The MLB schedule can be grueling. Teams play almost every day, often traveling at night to play the next day. A team might be on the tail end of a long road trip and running on fumes – a good spot to be cautious betting on them (or even consider “fading” them, which means betting against them).

Pay attention to things like: did the team have to fly cross-country overnight? Are they playing an early-day game after a late-night game? Fatigue does impact performance.

For example, if the Boston Red Sox played a night game in Seattle and then had a game the next evening back in Boston, that’s a brutal travel ask; players could be jet-lagged or less sharp.

Similarly, a West Coast team playing a 1 pm East Coast game might have their body clocks off. These schedule factors can be the difference between a team being energetic or flat.
Home/Away and Day/Night Splits: Some teams (or players) just perform better at home, or perhaps certain hitters hit better during day games. It might be psychological or due to park familiarity, but it’s worth noting.

Also, daylight and stadium shadows can make day games lower-scoring sometimes (e.g., late afternoon shadows can give pitchers an edge). Check a team’s record in day vs night or home vs road, if relevant – if nothing else, it might explain a surprising moneyline price.
Weather and Park Factors: We touched on this for totals, but it can affect sides, too. A wind blowing out might equal more homers, helping an underdog with power to potentially upset a favorite. Extreme heat or cold could favor one team’s style. And always be aware of Coors Field-type situations – betting the under in Denver, for instance, is always nerve-wracking because one big inning can wreck it.

Likewise, if you see a total of 11 at a place like Coors, don’t be automatically scared by a high number – in that park, it might be appropriate. In contrast, a game at a big ballpark with two ground-ball pitchers might legitimately be a low-scoring duel. Context is everything.
Bet with Your Head, Not Just Your Heart: This isn’t specific to MLB, but it’s worth a reminder. Baseball has a long season (162 games per team), and even the best teams lose 60+ games a year. Upsets are common. Try not to chase bets on your favorite team every night, and don’t assume a heavy favorite “can’t lose” (in baseball, even the worst teams win at least 50-60 games).

Manage your bankroll, bet responsibly, and look for value where the odds might not match the true probabilities. Sometimes that means betting on an underdog or passing on a game if you’re unsure.

And here’s a bonus tip: keep learning and enjoy the grind. Baseball betting is a marathon, not a sprint. You’ll pick up nuances as you go – maybe you’ll get a feel for which pitchers you can trust, or which teams tend to start hot or cold each season. Use stats and follow reputable analysis if you can. Over time, you’ll start thinking like a baseball handicapper naturally, weighing pitching, batting, and schedule factors intuitively.

Conclusion

Betting on MLB baseball can be a rewarding (and yes, profitable) hobby when you understand the basics and respect the details.

To recap, start with the simple bets: moneylines (just pick the winner) and learn how those plus/minus odds payouts work.

Then familiarize yourself with the run line, a fixed 1.5-run spread that can offer more value on big favorites or cushion on underdogs.

Totals are a fun way to bet on the style of game – over or under a runs line – and these are influenced by everything from pitching duels to weather and ballpark quirks.

We highlighted how crucial starting pitchers are in baseball betting – always know who’s pitching and how a late scratch can change the whole picture.

And don’t sleep on the bullpens; as modern baseball increasingly relies on relievers, the back-end of the game can make or break your bet.

Lastly, apply those practical tips: check lineups, mind the schedule and travel spots, and keep an eye on conditions.

Approach each game with a bit of research and a clear head, and you’ll avoid the common pitfalls that trip up new bettors.

Most importantly, have fun with it! The baseball season is long, giving you plenty of opportunities to learn and find good spots. With this guide, you’re no longer stepping up to the plate blind – you’ve got the knowledge to swing away with confidence.

Good luck and happy betting!