Betting on the NFL isn’t just about hunches or X’s and O’s – it’s also about spotting patterns.

Over the years, bettors have identified certain systems and trends that seem to beat the odds.

Some of these angles are still paying off today, while others have fizzled out or become folklore.

In this guide, we’ll highlight a few famous NFL betting systems (with data to back them up) and revisit some historical trends that might not hold the same edge anymore.

The goal is to make you feel a bit smarter on Sundays, whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned bettor, all in a fun conversational way.

Let’s dive into some of the most talked-about NFL betting systems and trends – and see which ones still deserve your attention. 

Fading the Super Bowl Champion in Week 1

One popular angle is the “Super Bowl hangover” theory for the reigning champs.

The idea is simple: last year’s Super Bowl winner might come out flat in their first game of the new season – perhaps due to complacency, a distraction from the banner-raising ceremony, or an inflated point spread from the public love.

Fading the Super Bowl champion (i.e. betting against them ATS in Week 1) has become a talking point, especially after some recent high-profile upsets.

So, is it profitable?

Historically, not really – at least until lately.

Believe it or not, from 2000 through 2020 the defending champs went 14-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1, about a 60.8% cover rate.

In other words, blindly fading the champ would have lost you money for two decades.

The champs often came out strong.

For example, the 2018 Eagles and 2019 Patriots both won and covered in their openers after winning the Super Bowl the previous season.

The trend was actually to back the champs in Week 1 during that span.

However, recent seasons have flipped the script.

After the Kansas City Chiefs were stunned 21-20 by the underdog Detroit Lions in the 2023 NFL kickoff game, the defending Super Bowl winners have now failed to cover the spread in three straight openers (2021, 2022, 2023).

In 2022, the champion Los Angeles Rams got blown out 31-10 at home by Buffalo on opening night, spoiling their celebration.

And in 2021, Tampa Bay won their opener but only by 2 points, not covering the hefty spread.

It marked the first time since the early 1980s that Super Bowl winners lost their Week 1 games three years in a row.

So, fading the champ has suddenly looked smart lately.

What should we make of this?

It could be a mini-trend – perhaps due to parity or the target on the champs’ back – or just a fluke.

The sample size is small.

The key takeaway: don’t automatically bet against the defending Super Bowl winner or against them without considering the context.

But if everyone and their mother are piling on the champs in Week 1, remember that recent history has humbled those teams.

Sometimes the hangover is real! 

Betting Against the Super Bowl Runner-Up (The “Hangover” Curse)

If fading the champs is debatable, fading the Super Bowl loser in Week 1 has been a gold mine historically.

This is the classic “Super Bowl hangover” in betting lore – the team that lost the big game often comes out sluggish or overrated in the next season’s opener.

And the data backs it up in a big way.

From 1999 through 2019, teams coming off a Super Bowl loss went just 6-15 ATS in their season opener.

That’s only a 28.6% cover rate – meaning if you bet against last year’s runner-up in every Week 1 over those 20+ years, you cashed roughly 71% of the time.

Talk about a trend!

Why might this happen?

There are a few theories.

One is an emotional letdown – the losing team spends all offseason stewing over the defeat, and perhaps they’re not as fired up for Week 1 as their opponent.

Another is public bias – casual bettors remember the Super Bowl run and might overrate that team, giving value to the other side.

There’s also often roster or coaching turnover after a Super Bowl loss, or just exhaustion from a shorter offseason.

Whatever the cause, the “Super Bowl loser’s curse” became one of the most reliable betting systems for many years.

Examples abound.

After the 2014 season, the Seahawks lost a heartbreaker in Super Bowl XLIX (the infamous goal-line interception).

In Week 1 of 2015, Seattle went out as a 3.5-point road favorite and promptly lost in overtime to the Rams.

In 2016, the Carolina Panthers had to open on the road against Denver in a Super Bowl rematch – Carolina fell short 21-20, failing to cover as a field-goal favorite.

Time and again, Super Bowl runners-up have stumbled out of the gate.

Two of the only teams to buck this trend were the New England Patriots in years they had lost a Super Bowl – the Patriots account for a couple of those rare ATS wins by SB losers.

Outside of those exceptions, it’s largely been a money-making angle to fade the runner-up.

Even in recent seasons, we’ve seen this play out.

The 2021 Kansas City Chiefs (who lost the Super Bowl to Tampa) barely won their opener and did not cover the spread.

The 2022 Cincinnati Bengals (losers of Super Bowl LVI) were upset in Week 1 at home.

It wasn’t until 2023 that a Super Bowl runner-up finally covered again (the Eagles managed to cover a 4-point spread in their opener).

So, while oddsmakers are surely aware of this trend, it still seems to hold some weight.

Betting against the Super Bowl loser in Week 1 – or at least being very skeptical of them – remains a viable system.

Just don’t expect it to hit 80% forever, and be ready to adjust if the pattern shifts.

Divisional Underdogs: Rivalry Games = Closer Games

There’s an old saying in sports: “Throw out the records when divisional rivals meet.”

Familiarity between teams tends to produce closer, hard-fought games.

NFL bettors have long noticed that underdogs in divisional games (teams facing a rival from the same division) often perform well against the spread.

The reason?

These teams play each other twice a year, know each other’s tendencies, and there’s extra motivation – all of which can level the playing field, favoring the underdog.

One particular spot stands out: divisional underdogs in Week 1.

Early in the season, everyone is hyped and oddsmakers must partly rely on last year’s performance to set lines.

This can lead to some mis-priced teams, especially in divisional matchups.

The trend has been remarkably strong.

Since 2014, divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS in Week 1 – that’s about a 71% win rate against the number.

Even more eye-popping, home underdogs in divisional games (Week 1) went 23-6 ATS (79.3% cover rate) from 2009 to 2023.

Those are insane percentages over a fairly long sample.

Essentially, if you blindly took every division's dog in Week 1, you’ve been printing money for a decade.

Why Week 1?

Likely because perceptions from the offseason can overshoot reality.

Rivalry games are often grind-it-out affairs, and underdogs come in with a chip on their shoulder.

A classic example: in the 2020 season opener, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars were 8-point underdogs at home to the Indianapolis Colts – everyone assumed Jacksonville would be one of the worst teams and Indy a contender. Well, the Jags didn’t get the memo.

They pulled off a 27-20 upset victory in Week 1, despite being in full rebuild mode.

Sportsbooks reported lopsided action on the Colts that day (nearly 99% of point-spread bets in Indiana were on Indianapolis) – and all those bettors went home unhappy as Jacksonville delivered a divisional shocker.

It was the Jags’ only win of that season, proving that anything can happen in a divisional game.

And they weren’t alone: that same opening Sunday, the Washington Football Team (another big underdog) stunned the Philadelphia Eagles 27-17 in a divisional matchup, wrecking a ton of survivor pools.

It’s not just Week 1 either – divisional underdogs can be a solid play throughout the season.

Rivalry games in November and December, with playoff implications, often see underdogs fighting tooth and nail to spoil a rival’s hopes.

Historically, divisional matchups have a slightly higher rate of underdogs covering compared to non-divisional games (in part because the point spreads tend to be a bit tighter).

As a bettor, the key is not to be scared to take the points in these games.

If a divisional underdog looks “ugly” on paper, that might be all the more reason to consider it.

The data shows that these dogs bite.

Of course, each game is unique – you still handicap the matchup – but as a rule of thumb, division underdogs deserve a long look, especially early in the season when uncertainty is highest.

First-Half Unders in Primetime Games

Ever notice that some hyped primetime games start off… kind of slow?

It’s not your imagination.

A more recent trend that bettors have been exploiting is betting the under on first-half totals in primetime NFL games (think Thursday Night, Sunday Night, Monday Night Football).

The logic: in these nationally televised night games, teams might begin cautiously, feeling each other out or dealing with jitters under the bright lights.

Defenses might be extra amped early, and coaches often script conservative plays to avoid early mistakes on a big stage.

The result can be lower-scoring first halves, even if the game eventually picks up later on.

The numbers from the past few seasons are compelling.

Between 2021 and 2023, first-half unders hit roughly 56% in night games (primetime slots).

One analysis found that from 2021 onward, the first half under in primetime was 86-61-2, about a 58% win rate – a large sample and a healthy profit margin.

Think about that: simply betting “1H Under” for every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night game would have cashed nearly 6 out of 10 bets over multiple seasons.

In sports betting, anything above 55% over a big sample is outstanding, so this trend has gotten bettors’ attention.

There are plenty of anecdotes that illustrate this.

You’ll see a high total posted for a Monday Night Football showdown between two explosive teams – but by halftime, it’s 10-7 and the under bettors are already counting their money.

In the 2022 season, for instance, first-half UNDERs started 8-1 in primetime games out of the gate.

Many high-profile matchups like Chiefs vs. Chargers or Buccaneers vs. Patriots came out with low-scoring first halves, even if some turned into shootouts by the end.

The betting public loves taking overs (it’s more fun to root for points), so first-half under can be a contrarian play with built-in value.

Oddsmakers eventually caught on and adjusted, but there still seems to be an edge here.

It’s important to note this isn’t a guarantee every week – but the trend has held enough that bettors now talk about it regularly.

If two teams with potent offenses meet on Sunday Night Football, the full-game total might be very high.

Rather than sweat a full game over/under that could swing on late touchdowns or overtime, some sharp bettors prefer the first half under, banking on a slower start.

And often, even if the teams explode in the second half, that cautious first quarter and change can keep the first-half total under.

As always, consider the matchup: Is there a reason to expect a fast start (maybe a mismatch on one side)?

Are there key offensive injuries that might cause a slow first half?

But as a broad system, first-half unders in primetime games have been one of the more profitable NFL betting trends in recent years.

Keep an eye on this as the NFL season progresses – if it continues, you might join the trend by hitting those first-half unders while the teams trade punts and field goals early on.

Betting Home Underdogs: An Old Tale of Caution

If you’ve listened to old-school bettors or watched pregame shows, you’ve likely heard the maxim: “Home underdog is a dangerous dog.”

For decades, betting on home underdogs was considered a savvy move.

The reasoning was that home-field advantage (crowd noise, familiar environment, travel fatigue on the visitor) combined with the motivational chip of being an underdog made these teams tough to beat or blow out at home.

In many eras, home dogs did have against-the-spread success, and it became something of a blindly followed narrative – “always take the home ’dog.”

But is it true today?

The NFL has evolved, and so has the betting market.

In recent years, home-field advantage has diminished (travel is easier, road teams are better prepared, and some stadiums just aren’t as hostile as they used to be).

The result: home underdogs are no longer a sure thing at all.

The trend may have reversed in some seasons.

Take 2024, for example – home underdogs had a terrible ATS record of only about 43% overall, the worst mark in almost 20 years.

Backing every home puppy that season would have burned your bankroll badly.

The old theory that “home teams get a magic boost” didn’t hold up, at least not in that sample.

Now, long-term, backing home underdogs blindly isn’t a winning strategy either – the house has caught on.

Sportsbooks know bettors love home dogs (because of the narrative), so the value is often sucked out of the line.

It doesn’t mean home ’dogs never cover; they do, but you have to pick your spots.

For instance, a strong home underdog in a divisional game (combining two trends) might still be appealing.

Or a home team with a unique home-field edge (say, playing in extreme weather or altitude) could outperform expectations.

But the days of automatically betting on every home underdog “because home dog” are over.

It’s a reminder that what was profitable 10+ years ago can evaporate as the game and market change.

Oddsmakers adjust, and so must bettors.

The crowd noise, home cooking, and pride factor are real, but they’re all accounted for in the point spread now.

As one recent analysis put it, 2024 “forced bettors to rethink long-held assumptions” like the home underdog advantage.

Consider that myth busted for the most part.

The Monday Night Football Over (and Other Primetime Myths)

Another classic narrative from the past: “Bet the over on Monday Night Football.”

The idea here was that primetime games, especially on Monday, tended to be high-scoring shootouts.

Maybe it was the national spotlight, an extra day of rest/prep leading to better offense, or simply that the public loves overs on primetime so books shaded lines low in the old days.

In the 1980s and 90s, you’d often hear how Monday night games were firework shows.

Even into the 2000s, there were seasons where overs hit at a good clip on MNF.

However, like many betting trends, this one doesn’t have a consistent edge today – and in fact, recent years saw the opposite (primetime unders became a thing, as discussed).

To illustrate how variable this is: in 2024, Monday Night overs jumped out to an 8-3 record at one point, the best start for MNF overs since 2009.

Does that mean the old “MNF over” is back?

Not necessarily – it mostly means there were some high-scoring games early that year.

For many seasons prior, unders were hitting more often on Monday night.

It goes to show these things can be cyclical or just random streaks.

The key point is that “Monday night = automatic over” is more folklore than fact.

Each matchup’s total should be judged on its own merits (offensive matchup, injuries, weather if outdoors, etc.), not simply the day of the week.

The betting public does tend to lean over on standalone night games, which can inflate the line.

So blindly following a narrative without current data can lead you astray.

Sure, if you identified something like “teams on MNF with high-powered offenses tend to deliver overs because neither wants to back down under the lights,” you could dig into it.

But broadly speaking, there’s no enduring, exploitable edge in Monday night overs.

Some weeks you’ll get a Rams-Chiefs 54-51 type of explosion, other weeks you’ll get a 12-9 snoozer.

The bottom line: Treat primetime or nationally televised games like any other – analyze them individually.

Don’t bet the over just because “it’s Monday night.”

The same caution goes for other catchy myths (like “West Coast teams traveling East struggle in 1 PM games” – there’s some truth to it, but it’s often baked into the line).

Always seek out current data.

If a trend was widely known in the past, chances are the sportsbooks have adjusted or the game has changed enough to nullify it.

Using These Trends to Your Advantage (Responsibly)

So, we’ve walked through a bunch of systems and trends – some still profitable, some historically interesting.

How should you apply this knowledge today? T

he best bettors use trends as just one tool in their toolbox.

Here are a few parting insights on using these angles responsibly:

  • Consider the Context: No trend exists in a vacuum. Maybe a Super Bowl champion is historically good in Week 1, but what if their star quarterback is injured or they’re facing an elite opponent? Don’t follow a system off a cliff. Use it to inform your bet, not to dictate it. For example, knowing divisional underdogs do well might nudge you toward an underdog if you already see other reasons to like them (stout defense, rivalry factor, etc.). Think of trends as a supporting factor, not gospel.

  • Watch for Line Movement: Once a trend becomes well-known, the sportsbooks and betting market adjusts. That awesome first-half under trend in primetime? You might start seeing first-half totals set a point or two lower than you’d expect, due to bettors hammering the under. Value can evaporate quickly. Always gauge if the trend is “priced in.” If everyone knows a Super Bowl loser struggles, the point spread might already be a bit higher on that team’s opponent. In those cases, the edge of the trend might be neutralized.

  • Sample Size and Recency: Be wary of tiny sample trends (“Team X is 5-0 on Tuesdays wearing blue uniforms!”). We focused on broader, league-wide systems here. The larger the sample (over many years and scenarios), the more confidence you can have that a trend isn’t pure luck. Also pay more attention to recent seasons than ancient history – the NFL in 2025 is not the same as the NFL in 1985. Players, rules, and styles change. Trends can and do stop working. Always ask: “Does this trend have a sound reasoning behind it, and is that reasoning still relevant now?”

  • Money Management: Even a 60% winning trend will have losing streaks. Don’t blow your whole bankroll thinking you’ve found a sure thing. These systems tilt the odds slightly in your favor – which is great – but variance is a thing. Treat betting like a long-term game. If you decide to ride a trend (say, divisional dogs), stick to consistent wager sizes and be prepared for some losses. Over time, if the edge holds, you’ll come out ahead. Chasing or doubling up because “this trend can’t lose!” is a recipe for disaster. Stay disciplined.

  • Mix Art and Science: The fun part of using trends is blending them with your own football knowledge and intuition. Maybe you read about a strong trend favoring an under, but you also know these particular teams have explosive offenses and you feel the number is too low – it’s okay to pass the trend play or even go against it if you have good reason. At the end of the day, handicapping is an art. Trends are like historical reference points that can guide you, but you paint the final picture for each bet.

Final Thoughts: NFL betting systems and trends can give you an edge and make your Sundays more interesting.

It’s pretty satisfying to explain to your friends, “I took the underdog because divisional rivals often play close – and look, they just covered again!”

That’s the sweet spot: educate and entertain yourself.

You now know which narratives have data behind them (divisional dogs, Super Bowl hangovers, first-half unders) and which are more bark than bite (blindly backing home ’dogs, assuming primetime means points).

Armed with this knowledge, you can approach your bets a bit more analytically and responsibly.

Remember, the NFL is unpredictable – that’s why we love it.

No betting trend is a magic bullet.

But by understanding these patterns and applying them wisely, you’ll be putting yourself in a smarter position than the average bettor.

And over the long haul, that’s how you stay ahead of the spread.

Good luck and happy betting!