With his win at the U.S. Open, J.J. Spaun (125/1) had the second highest odds of any golfer to win a major over the past decade, second only to Phil Mickelson (250/1) at the 2021 PGA Championship. Spaun was the only player to finish under par as he won his first major and just his second PGA Tour victory, the first since the 2022 Valero Texas Open. It was a roller coaster of a round as Spaun bogeyed four of his first five holes but birdied four of his final seven holes that included an improbable birdie on 18 to win by two shots over Robert MacIntyre. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler were the other players in the top ten in odds to actually finish in the top ten.
The Travelers Championship marks the eighth and final signature event of the season. The Travelers has been a mainstay since 1952 and has been played at the renamed TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1989 when it went through its second redesign in a decade. It is a par 70 that reaches 6,844 yards making it one of the shortest courses on tour and with a winning scoring average of -17 over the last decade, including -19 the last five years, it will be quite the difference from last week in scoring and layout. Oakmont had no trees, narrow fairways and extreme rough while TPC River Highlands is a tree-lined course with wide fairways and very tame rough.
It is a strong field as expected being the final signature event of the season with 22 of the the top 25 in the OWGR teeing it up as well as 45 of the top 50. This includes everyone from the top ten including defending champion Scottie Scheffler who won on the first playoff hole over Tom Kim. Spaun is in the field and while he will be here physically, the mental part will be in question and rightfully so. The other four defending champions in the field are Keegan Bradley, Xander Schauffele, Harris English and Jordan Spieth while the four key sponsor exemptions are Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Tom Kim, and Luke Clanton.
Scheffler is the expected favorite at +280 and the other players under +3000 are Rory McIlroy (+1200), Colin Morikawa (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1600), Ludvig Aberg (+2200), Patrick Cantlay (+2200) and Justin Thomas (+2800). While the weather should not have an impact on the tournament, the pre-tournament weather will have an effect as New England has been hammered with rain over the last month so the course will be soft and receptive which will make the approach game and putting big factors this week. Wind gusts of 20 mph on Thursday and Friday is the only true weather concern.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained 400-450 yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent/Poa)
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Justin Thomas
Odds: Win 2,800 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 220
Payout: Win 14,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,125.00 ~ Top Ten 550.00
It was the typical Thomas last week where he is either going to contend or completely flame out and it was the latter at Oakmont. He was negative in SG across the board and we can chalk it up to a bad week, his second straight like that in a major. Now comes the chance to bounce back as he leads the tour in Birdie Average. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year and came to Cromwell and finished T5, his second straight top 10 here after missing the weekend at the Open.
Sepp Straka
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 240
Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,250.00 ~ Top Ten 600.00
Straka was a sleeper for many last week because of his ability to keep the ball in the fairway to go along with a strong approach game. He did both but he had his worst putting performance since the 2021 American Express as he lost two strokes on the greens. The putting will come around and he comes in No. 3 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and No. 2 in Birdie Average. He was T23 here last year with an exceptional approach performance which we expect again.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 275
Payout: Win 20,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 687.50
MacIntyre comes in with the disappointment of a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open but it was not that he lost it as he got beat while in the clubhouse so there is little mental carryover anguish which is a real thing when having to play the following week against elite competition. He gained nearly two strokes on the field last week tee to green and while he finished T16 here last year, he did so with -.65 in SG: Approach which is an aberration as since then, he has lost strokes on approach in just 8 of 30 starts.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 330
Payout: Win 25,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 825.00
Kim was an early leader last week before fading to a T42 finish but he did what a lot of players did and that was failing on the greens. He was +1.44 in SG: Approach, the third time in his last six starts he has gained over one stroke in that category. He finished T31 here last year because of a bad weekend around the greens and he fits the correlating course variable with wins at the Wyndham Championship and the Players Championship. Excellent current form and a good putting week can get him over the top.
Results through The U.S. Open (14 Tournaments):
Win: -13,500
Top Five: +3,875
Top Ten: +300
Top 20 Masters: -90