Saints vs. Bucs Picks & Prediction

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on New Orleans Saints +8.5

The Key: The Saints have been competitive in their last 3 games going 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS.  They upset the Panthers 17-7 as 5-point road dogs and outgained them 388 to 175 for the game.  That win is aging very well with what the Panthers are doing.  They lost 24-10 to the Falcons, but that was a misleading game as they got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed 2 FG's.  They also lost 21-17 as 5-point dogs at Miami.  They should not be 8.5-point road dogs here to the Bucs, who are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Their lone win was a 3-point home win over the Cardinals as 4-point favorites.  They were outgained 386 to 279 by the Cardinals.  They also lost by 5 at home to New England, by 12 at Buffalo and by 27 to the Rams on the road.  Baker Mayfield is playing injured, and he won't get Mike Evans or Jalen McMillan back this week.  One of the most misleading scores of the season was when the Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in the first matchup in New Orleans.  The Saints outgained the Bucs 275 to 212.  It was just a comedy of errors by the Saints, including a 3-yard INT return TD where Spencer Rattler threw it right to the defender.  The Saints were -3 in turnovers.  They have been playing their best football on the road this year and I think they keep this within 8 points in the rematch.  The Saints are actually a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as road underdogs against NFC South foes.  They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Tampa Bay.  Take New Orleans.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Saints +8½ -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

Saints vs Buccaneers  
1:00 EST 
5-UNIT bet OVER the total currently priced at 42 points. 

Betting the Over in a game with a total between 37.5 and 42 points in which one of the teams is getting outscored by 4 or more points per game and is on a 4 or more Under streak has gone 38-21 for 64.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.  If the game occurs from week 13 on out, the OVER has gone 20-11 good for 65% winning bets since 1994. 

PSP Data Driven 1* Saints.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. New Orleans is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home.