Twins vs. Guardians Picks & Prediction

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Minnesota Twins +126

The Minnesota Twins have the advantage on the mound today and should not be underdogs to the Cleveland Guardians.  They also trail the Guardians by four games in the AL Central, so they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 today to even this series.

Taj Bradley has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 36 innings with 44 K's for a 3.25 ERA during this stretch.  Bradley has owned the Guardians, going 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA in four career starts against them while allowing just 4 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings with 31 K's.

Gavin Williams has allowed 2 earned runs or more in eight consecutive starts, including 3 earned runs or more in five of them.  He has allowed 27 earned runs and 11 homers in 43 innings for a 5.65 ERA in his last eight starts.  

Williams has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 innings in his two starts against Minnesota this season.  He is 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in his last four home starts against the Twins, allowing 11 earned runs and 33 base runners in 19 innings.  Bet the Twins Thursday.

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Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Twins/Guardians OVER 7

The Key: The Twins and Guardians have gone for at least 7 combined runs in 5 consecutive matchups.  That includes 17 and 16 runs in 2 of their 3 matchups in this series thus far.  Taj Bradley sports a 4.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 road starts for the Twins this year.  Gavin Williams sports a 5.65 ERA in his last 8 starts overall for the Guardians.  Williams sports a 5.21 ERA in his last 4 home starts against Minnesota.  Take the OVER.

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#953/954: ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 7.5 (-115) in Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Thursday 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a high-scoring battle and we like the value of the 7.5 that is on offer here early this afternoon. The Guardians have had 6 of their last 7 home games reach at least a total of 8 runs. The Twins have had 4 of their last 5 games reach at least a total of 8 runs. Cleveland starter Gavin Williams had a 6.04 ERA last month and has a 5.09 ERA this month. Minnesota starter Taj Bradley is off of a rough road start and allowed 5 earned runs. He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 road starts and he struggles again here. Free Play OVER 7.5 (-115) in Cleveland