Cardinals vs. Dodgers Picks & Prediction

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Cardinals/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The St. Louis Cardinals are going through their best offensive stretch of the season while going 11-1-1 OVER in their last 13 games overall.  They have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 games, so this total of 7.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Cardinals right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of those 13 games.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored 6 runs or more in three consecutive games and I expect them to do the heavy lifting in this game to cash this OVER 7.5 ticket.  They should crush rookie Quinn Matthews, who is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts this season.  Matthews is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings.

Tarik Skubal commands respect from the books which is why this total is so low.  But the Cardinals got to Yamamoto last night, and they can do enough damage off Skubal to contribute to this total.  He has a 3.53 ERA in 11 home starts this season.

Both bullpens are pretty taxed right now after these teams combined for 21 runs in Game 1 with a combined 9 relievers used, and then 14 runs in extra innings in Game 2 with another 10 combined relievers used.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the under in this matchup. The Dodgers (82-57) hand the ball to LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 3.00 ERA with LAD), who has been utterly electric since moving to Los Angeles.

Cardinals (70-70) send rookie LHP Quinn Mathews (1-2, 5.03 ERA) to the bump. Admittedly, Mathews' ERA looks elevated, but only one start of four was outright bad, and his underlying 3.08 FIP indicates he has pitched significantly better than his unearned results suggest. Coming off a strong 5.2-inning, 1-run outing against Pittsburgh, he now faces a Dodgers lineup that has struggled to stay prodcutive in recent weeks.

Both teams hit considerably worse against left-handed pitching compared to right-handers.

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER!

PSP Data Driven 1* Dodgers -1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Dodgers are 8-5 in their last 13 games. The Cardinals are 4-7 in their last 11 games.

(#956) Los Angeles Dodgers | ATS | . 

Quinn Mathews (1-2, 5.03 ERA) vs. Tarik Skubal (8-7, 2.84 ERA) . 

On paper, Wednesday's game is a complete mismatch. From the lineups to the pitching matchup, the Dodgers are the clear better team in today's contest. Quinn Mathews has an 0-2 record & a 6.43 ERA in three road games this season. Now, he has to face the most stacked lineups of his career. 

The Dodgers will send Tarik Skubal to the mound here on Wednesday. Although I was a bit skeptical of the move, considering that the Tigers definitely still had a shot of a postseason appearance, I believe that the signing was good for both players in the end. Skubal has looked much better lately as well. Hammer LAD, minus the run and a half. 

Burns' Prediction: 6-2 Dodgers.