Pirates vs. Brewers Picks & Prediction
| 2:10 PM | ML | O/U | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | +122 | 7½ | 0 |
| Brewers | -135 | 0 | |
| Premium Picks [17] �? Free Picks [3] | |||
Pirates vs. Brewers Premium Pick Packages
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Pirates vs. Brewers Free Picks & Predictions
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R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Thursday 8-6-26
UNDER 7 1/2 Pittsburgh/Milwaukee
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Sal Michaels
Joe Duffy
The value on Pirates-Brewers OVER 7.5 starts with the projection. My simulator makes this game 9.8 runs, giving the Over roughly a 70% probability. At -110 odds, the break-even point is only 52.4%, creating a substantial theoretical edge.
The matchup also supports that projection.
Braxton Ashcraft has been effective overall, but his recent form has been much more volatile. He owns a 6.57 ERA over his last five starts, and two of his last four outings against quality offenses turned into slugfests, including an 8-7 game against the Cubs and a 7-6 game against Milwaukee. In that July 11 meeting with the Brewers, Ashcraft allowed five earned runs and two home runs in five innings, and the game sailed Over the total. The last five starts have averaged 7.4 total runs while he was in the game alone, showing his recent outings have been far less stable than his season ERA suggests.
Dustin May has been inconsistent throughout the season as well. His 4.38 ERA is backed by a WHIP of 1.28, and Pittsburgh already tagged him for four earned runs in 5⅓ innings earlier this season in a 6-2 Pirates victory. Even though May has pitched better at home than on the road, he has still mixed dominant starts with outings where command deserts him, including five earned runs in less than an inning against St. Louis and six earned runs over two innings in another appearance. Those blow-up outings illustrate why his underlying profile remains vulnerable despite a few recent quality starts.
The offenses are capable of doing their share. Pittsburgh averages 5.05 runs per game, and their games average 9.87 total runs, one of the higher figures in baseball. Milwaukee averages 4.96 runs per game, giving this matchup nearly 10 combined runs per game before accounting for the pitching matchup. Covers' own projection lands at 4.28-4.03, or 8.31 runs, already above today's total.
There is also encouraging recent history between these clubs. Ashcraft's lone 2026 start against Milwaukee finished 7-6, while four of the last eight meetings have produced at least nine runs, including scores of 14-5, 7-6, 6-3, and 6-2.
Finally, while both bullpens have respectable season ERAs, neither has been untouchable recently. Milwaukee's relief corps has allowed 11 runs over its last 23⅔ innings, and Pittsburgh's bullpen has several middle relievers carrying ERAs north of 4.50, increasing the likelihood that late scoring adds to the total if either starter exits early.
When a simulation projects 9.8 runs with a 70% chance of eight or more, and that projection is reinforced by two starters capable of giving up crooked numbers, offenses averaging nearly 10 combined runs per game, and prior meetings that have already produced games like 7-6, the OVER 7.5 offers strong value.
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