Tracking Margin of Cover (ATS +/-) shows not only who’s covering but by how much. Through two weeks of the NFL season, here are the standouts and the fades:

Best NFL ATS Margin of Cover Teams

These teams are outperforming the market and padding bettors’ bankrolls:

  • Indianapolis Colts: 2-0 ATS, +13.0 MoC, winning by double digits with ease.
  • Green Bay Packers: 2-0 ATS, +9.5 MoC, underrated despite hot start.
  • LA Chargers: 2-0 ATS, +8.3 MoC, strong balance between offense and defense.
  • Buffalo Bills: 2-0 ATS, +8.3 MoC, blowing past expectations on both sides of the ball.
  • Seattle Seahawks: 1-1 ATS, +7.8 MoC, dangerous when undervalued.
  • Atlanta Falcons: 1-1 ATS, +7.5 MoC, quietly rewarding bettors.
  • Detroit Lions: 1-1 ATS, +6.0 MoC, living up to sharp expectations.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-1 ATS, +5.5 MoC, better than record suggests.
  • LA Rams: 2-0 ATS, +5.3 MoC, exceeding preseason doubts.

Worst NFL ATS Margin of Cover Teams

On the other end, these franchises are punishing bettors and failing to meet the line:

  • Miami Dolphins: 0-2 ATS, –16.3 MoC, biggest bankroll killer so far.
  • Chicago Bears: 0-2 ATS, –14.0 MoC, completely noncompetitive vs. expectations.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-2 ATS, –9.5 MoC, rough start for one of the most public teams.
  • Minnesota Vikings: 1-1 ATS, –8.0 MoC, poor value despite one cover.
  • NY Jets: 1-1 ATS, –6.8 MoC, inconsistent and costly.
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 0-2 ATS, –5.5 MoC, failing to justify market respect.
  • Carolina Panthers: 1-1 ATS, –4.8 MoC, not keeping games close.
  • Cleveland Browns: 1-1 ATS, –4.0 MoC, defense strong but spreads too steep.
  • NY Giants: 1-1 ATS, –3.8 MoC, regression hitting hard.
  • Tennessee Titans: 1-1 ATS, –3.8 MoC, offense dragging down bettors.

Takeaways

  • Top Performers: Indianapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo, and the Chargers are delivering consistent profit.
  • Reliable Fades: Miami, Chicago, and Pittsburgh are early-season “bet against” squads.
  • Middle Ground: Teams like Philadelphia (–1.0) and Cincinnati (–1.5) are close to the market line — not strong enough to back or fade aggressively yet.