Every sports bettor knows Against the Spread (ATS) records matter, but to really uncover betting value you have to dig into the Margin of Cover (ATS +/-). This number shows not just if a team covered, but by how much they beat or missed the line.

So far in the 2025 season, here are the programs that have been printing money for bettors—and the ones burning bankrolls.

Best Teams to Bet On (Top Margin of Cover)

These are the schools smashing expectations, consistently outperforming the number.

  • Florida State: 3-0 ATS, +22.7 MoC
  • Old Dominion: 3-0 ATS, +20.5 MoC
  • Vanderbilt: 4-0 ATS, +19.9 MoC
  • Indiana: 3-1 ATS, +18.1 MoC
  • Louisiana Tech: 4-0 ATS, +15.4 MoC
  • North Texas: 3-1 ATS, +15.4 MoC
  • Utah State: 4-0 ATS, +15.0 MoC
  • BYU: 3-0 ATS, +14.5 MoC
  • Arizona: 3-0 ATS, +13.3 MoC
  • Oregon: 3-1 ATS, +12.3 MoC

These teams aren’t just winning—they’re winning comfortably against the number. Backing them has meant lower sweat, higher profit, and strong return on investment.

Best Teams to Bet Against (Worst Margin of Cover)

Now for the bankroll crushers. These programs are failing to meet oddsmaker expectations, making them prime fades.

  • UCLA: 0-3 ATS, –25.3 MoC
  • Oklahoma State: 0-3 ATS, –20.3 MoC
  • Virginia Tech: 0-4 ATS, –15.0 MoC
  • Clemson: 0-4 ATS, –17.1 MoC
  • UMass: 0-3 ATS, –16.8 MoC
  • Georgia State: 0-4 ATS, –16.5 MoC
  • Kansas State: 0-4 ATS, –14.5 MoC
  • Liberty: 0-4 ATS, –11.9 MoC
  • SMU: 0-4 ATS, –10.4 MoC
  • Middle Tennessee: 1-3 ATS, –10.1 MoC

Bettors who’ve backed these programs have been punished. Negative MoC numbers this steep show systemic market mispricing—whether from quarterback issues, coaching struggles, or overinflated preseason hype.

Takeaways for Bettors

  • Back the Market Beaters: Florida State, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana Tech are double-digit cover machines.
  • Fade the Frauds: UCLA, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech are among the nation’s worst bets.
  • Monitor Mid-Tier Teams: Programs like Oregon, BYU, and Arizona are still covering comfortably but may face line adjustments soon.

Why Margin of Cover Is the Bettor’s Edge

Unlike straight ATS records, Margin of Cover reveals sustainability. A team winning ATS by +10 or more points per game shows a major market inefficiency, while teams missing the number by –10 or worse are screaming fade signals.

Final Word

In 2025, the early betting landscape has given us a clear split: some teams are cash cows, others are money pits. Use Margin of Cover as your sweat barometer to spot true value before the market catches up.

For sharp sports bettors, MoC isn’t just a stat—it’s the difference between following the crowd and beating the book.