Sports betting isn’t just about instincts. The sharpest bettors rely on systems, models, and situational angles that have stood the test of time. Below are several proven strategies currently in play, including rushing yard regression, weather-driven totals, and spread margin performance.
Hot Models
Rushing Yardage Regression
When a team rushes for 350 or more yards the previous week, games historically go under the total at a rate of 574-453-31.
- Florida State vs. Kent State UNDER 55.5
- Michigan vs. Nebraska UNDER 44.5
- Central Florida vs. North Carolina UNDER 49.5
- Missouri vs. South Carolina UNDER 46.5
- Virginia vs. Stanford UNDER 48.5
- Louisiana Tech vs. Southern Miss UNDER 51.5
At 400+ rushing yards, the under improves further to 258-190-15.
Big Conference Underdogs, Low Totals
Underdogs of +7 or more in conference games with totals of 48 or less are 703-599-33 against the spread.
- South Carolina +13.5 vs. Missouri
- Maryland +8.5 vs. Wisconsin
Lower-Ranked Favorites
When lower-ranked teams are favored, they hold a 58-26 ATS record.
- Indiana -3.5 vs. Illinois
Big Favorites off a Bye
Favorites of -21.5 or more following a bye week are 127-67-6 ATS.
- Louisville -26.5 vs. Bowling Green
- Florida State -44.5 vs. Kent State
Early Season Underachievers
Teams in the first six games with two fewer wins than games they were favored in are 139-79-1 ATS.
- Notre Dame -26.5 vs. Purdue
- Virginia Tech vs. Wofford
When not home underdogs, these teams are 114-55-1 ATS.
Bet Middlers
These are games in which the total will likely drop based on current wind forecasts. Bet this under ASAP, then over before gametime if a big middle opportunity is there:
Wind and Totals
When kickoff winds are 13 mph or higher, games trend strongly under at 708-527-27.
- Washington vs. Washington State UNDER 53.5
- Fresno State vs. Hawaii UNDER 47.5