| 8:10 PM | ML | O/U | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | +189 | 9 | 0 |
| Astros | -210 | 0 | |
| Premium Picks [7] �? Free Picks [5] | |||
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Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Houston Astros as underdogs on the Run Line tonight. They have a big edge on the rubber over the Los Angeles Angels. Peter Lamber is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts this year. Lambert sports a 3.18 ERA in 2 starts against the Angels in 2026. Grayson Rodriquez is 3-5 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 starts this year. He is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Astros. Take Houston on the Run Line.
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Thursday’s Free winner: Houston Astros.
Game 960.
5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.
It’s hard to believe that this far into the regular season, a team at 64-63 is atop their division. Well, that’s the case with the Houston Astros who sit atop the American League West with a 2.0-game cushion. They face a team which is once again experiencing a disappointing and long regular season in the Los Angeles Angels who sit in fourth place in the West, at 50-77, and 14.0-games back. To say Houston has gotten the better of Los Angeles would be an understatement. This season alone just since the end of March, they have taken seven of the last 10 matchups against their division rival. The Angels started to catch fire a bit in August, splitting out their last 10 outings. But this is a team that is one of the worst overall in baseball, particularly on the road where they own a 21-41 record. Statistically, it’s ugly. They rank at or near the bottom in just about every major offensive category and at or near the bottom and just about every major pitching category, too. The Astros offense possesses some respectable numbers. Overall, their pitching staff leaves a bit to be desired. But today’s matchup compels me to side with them. On the road is Rodriguez, while at home is Lambert. In a battle of RH’s, the Angels starter is 3-5 with a 7.17 ERA, while the Astros hurler is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA. Rodriguez has posted just one victory since the end of May, as the team is 1-9 over his last 10 outings. He is winless on the road, and over his last three outings his ERA is 4.80. Meanwhile, the Baltimore starter has been good for the team as they have won 11 of his last 14 starts. As a matter of fact, not since mid-May has he allowed a single offense to put up better than two earned runs. He is solid at home, and over the last three outings has been strong. As I mentioned at the start of this breakdown, if this line would’ve been lower, I would’ve put it out of the premium play. But I still see value it. Take the Astros. Thank you.
(#959) Los Angeles Angels @ (#960) Houston Astros | OVER | .
Grayson Rodriguez (3-5, 7.17 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.11 ERA) .
Looking at the numbers, this should be a clear win for the Astros. That being said, it hasn't completely been smooth sailing for Lambert recently, allowing multiple runs in five consecutive outings. Don't get me wrong, he almost never gets completely rocked. But, this could be a dangerous matchup for him if he doesn't limit balls in play.
Grayson Rodriguez has simply been very poor this season. There's no question that I believe that he's better than what he's showed. But, it just hasn't come here in 2026. With a hungry Astros team hitting against him today, don't be shocked if he gets dominated one more time.
Burns' Prediction: 8-4 Astros.