Nationals vs. Rangers Picks & Prediction
| 8:05 PM | ML | O/U | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | +122 | 7½ | 0 |
| Rangers | -135 | 0 | |
| Premium Picks [7] �? Free Picks [2] | |||
Nationals vs. Rangers Premium Pick Packages
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Nationals vs. Rangers Free Picks & Predictions
Alex Smart
I've been staring at the Thursday rotation since before the coffee kicked in, and most of these matchups look like the usual mid-August sausage. Everybody's on five or six days, nobody's getting skipped, nothing screams "free money." Then you get to Globe Life and Jacob deGrom sitting on an extra day after that two-inning special in Anaheim last week. That's the one that actually jumped.
DeGrom's been dealing with the usual late-career nagging stuff, so the extra rest isn't some analytics flex , it's just the club giving the old dog another day to feel human again. He hasn't gone deep in a while, but the extra 24 hours after a short outing is the kind of thing that lets a veteran get his command back. Alvarez is a perfectly fine lefty who can eat innings, but he's not the same guy when the other side has a veteran who can actually locate after extra rest. Globe Life with the roof closed has been a pitcher's park all year, which is the last thing a Nats lineup wants to see when they're already hitting like they're allergic to extra rest.
League-wide, extra-rest starts have quietly become the new normal. The five-day cycle is dead. Veterans especially tend to find a little extra bite and command when they get that extra day, and Texas has cashed more than their share of those tickets over the years. Head-to-head the Rangers have a slight edge all-time and they've taken two of the last three series. This one's 1-1 after Tuesday's 5-0 and Wednesday's 6-0, so the rubber game lines up with the rest advantage. Washington's been a scrappy .500-ish road club, but they still fade when the opposing starter is actually fresh.
Rangers are 33-28 at home and have the clearer rotation spot tonight. Rangers are sitting at -156 on the moneyline, Nats +136. That's laying $156 to win $100 (about 61% implied). Kelly is just a fancy way of saying bet a bigger piece when you think you have a real edge and a smaller piece when you don't. You don't need the full equation , if you think Texas is more like 65-66% than the 61% the books are charging, you're getting a little extra juice for the extra rest. That's why laying this much is still viable. You're not fading a coin flip; you're backing a rested ace at home in a park that already favors the guy who can locate. I'm on the Rangers ML. If you want to get cute you can hammer the run line, but the straight moneyline is the cleanest way to play it.
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Nick Parsons
This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER Nationals/Rangers.
The first two games of this series have both gone UNDER the number, and with Andrew Alvarez (2-4, 3.72 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (8-8, 3.95 ERA) squaring off in the finale, I believe runs will once again be at a premium.
Alvarez is off a difficult loss to the Mets on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings.
deGrom is 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA at home.
I believe these guys will battle into the deep innings, also helping in very few runs hitting the board.
This number is high, in my opinion, consider the UNDER.
Good luck, NP