| 6:45 PM | ML | O/U | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -160 | 8 | 0 |
| Nationals | +145 | 0 | |
| Premium Picks [18] �? Free Picks [5] | |||
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Razor turns to the MLB card. This selection is included as part of Razor’s Long Term and Seasonal Sports Passes, classified as a 3★ release. Comfortable spot in the current cycle.
PSP Data Driven 1* Phillies.
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Philadelphia are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games. Washington are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the National League East Division.
The Philadelphia Phillies are 44-36 this season. Philadelphia has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. Cristopher Sanchez is 9-3 with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 105.0 innings. The Washington Nationals are 41-40 this season. Washington has a 4.69 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Cade Cavalli is 4-4 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 77.1 innings. Washington has lost three of its last four games. The Nationals are 17-24 at home, and the Phillies are 21-17 on the road. Philadelphia has won four of its last five games. Sanchez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Cavalli has allowed 3+ earned runs in two of his last three outings. The Phillies have an advantage in starting pitching, and the Nats' bullpen has struggled over the last couple of games.
Play on Philadelphia. This is a FREE PLAY!
FREE PICK: Phillies-Nationals UNDER 8.5
Yesterday's meeting between these same clubs closed with a total a full run higher than today's number. Yes, Christopher Sanchez replacing Aaron Nola is the obvious reason for the adjustment, but that's exactly why this setup is so intriguing.
Rather than questioning the oddsmakers, we use their pricing to our advantage. When today's total is evaluated against recent totals in this situation, it triggers one of our proven UNDER angles that has produced a 4,403-3,630-385 record historically.
While the system got off to a slow start this season, it's heating up in a big way, cashing at an 8-3 clip over its last 11 qualifying plays.
Free Pick: Phillies-Nationals UNDER 8.5
Phillies vs. Nationals — Public Betting & Odds Report
Opener:
· Phillies -185
· Nationals +155
· Total: 8.5
Best lines:
· Phillies -178
· Nationals +168
Best totals:
· Over 8.5 (+108)
· Under 8.5 (-105)
Splits on side:
· 86% of bets on Phillies
· 92% of money on Phillies
· 6% higher share of money than tickets, indicating larger wagers backing Philadelphia.
Splits on total:
· 66% of bets on the Over 8.5
· 66% of money on the Over 8.5
· Perfect alignment between ticket count and money, showing broad agreement on the Over.
Takeaway:
The Phillies are one of the most heavily backed favorites on Thursday's board, attracting both overwhelming public support and an even larger percentage of the money. Meanwhile, the total leans to the Over, but without any notable sharp/public divergence, as both bets and money are split identically.