| 3:07 PM | ML | O/U | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -108 | 9 | 0 |
| Blue Jays | -102 | 0 | |
| Premium Picks [15] �? Free Picks [6] | |||
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My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.
It's really tough to back the Blue Jays right now, regardless of price. They're reeling on the heels of four straight losses including three in a row in this series. I do like their chances of salvaging Thursday's series finale against the Rays, however. You could argue that left-hander Ian Seymour has been the weak link in the Rays starting rotation, lately at least. He checks in having allowed 12 earned runs in just 11 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. Tampa Bay has lost each of his last two outings. He enters this contest having allowed at least a home run in four consecutive starts. Jays starter Shane Bieber has something to build off of as he checks in off arguably his best outing of the season, holding a tough White Sox lineup to three hits over six scoreless innings on Saturday. Toronto has won each of his last two starts. We'll take a flyer on Toronto in what sets up as a game it desperately needs ahead of a tough series at Fenway Park this weekend. Take Toronto (8*).
Ricky's 1* play on TOR.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Tampa Bay are 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay are 3-5 in their last 8 games.
- Shane Bieber has won 2 of his last 2 starts for the Blue Jays.
Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.
Marc David Sports' Free Pick
We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Toronto RHP Shane Bieber's career numbers and reputation as an ace, but he got a late start to his season due to shoulder fatigue, and has posted a 5.70 ERA in 23.2 innings.. The Blue Jays have just one win in eight games and Rays LHP Ian Seymour (6-2, 4.79 ERA) seems to be on par with Bieber at the moment.
This is a FREE PLAY on the RAYS!
1% GOLD RUSH on Blue Jays -101
This is the strongest Luck Gap play on Thursday’s card. Tampa Bay ranks No. 1 in TeamRankings’ Luck Ratings at +8.87, while Toronto sits No. 28 at -5.78—a massive 14.65-point gap. We believe the significantly unluckier team is the value side.
The current series results make Toronto uncomfortable, but they also inflate Tampa Bay’s market value. The Rays have won the first three games and are 8-1 against Toronto this season, yet the Blue Jays remain a small home favorite. That is a strong oddsmaker signal.
Toronto also has the more trustworthy starting-pitcher upside. Shane Bieber is coming off six shutout innings against the White Sox, allowing only three hits while striking out six. He owns a solid 3.27 career ERA in seven starts against Tampa Bay.
Rays starter Ian Seymour has a 5.96 ERA across his last five appearances, averaging only 4.1 innings. He has allowed nine earned runs and five home runs over his last three outings, forcing Tampa Bay to lean heavily on a bullpen that has already worked throughout the series.
Toronto has committed six errors and scored only six runs during the first three games. Those struggles are real, but they are also difficult to sustain indefinitely. Back the extreme Luck Gap, the pitching bounce-back and the telling home-favorite price.
BET TORONTO
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